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World War 3

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The Golden Phallanx View Drop Down
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  Quote The Golden Phallanx Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: World War 3
    Posted: 08-Apr-2005 at 18:32
Originally posted by coolstorm

i read ur post. it's very well written.

however, i'd like to point out that many of the "ideal" solutions you pointed out to the future of the globe is not very ideal simply for few reasons:

greed (people are not likely to share anything with others and big bussiness are not likely to stop making money in the expense of the poor)

at least currently, from the war in iraq to the us government spending on education are largely financed by the people's bank of china. a war between china and the us simply cannot happen (i think) because of the economic ties between the two. currently, china is the largest holder of us debts and assets (japan is the second, hong kong is the third, taiwan is the fourth). they buy us assets in large blocks because they have to keep the us dollar strong to export their goods to the united states and to keep the fixed exchange rate against the us dollar. any war or even social instability in this region can cause tremendous effect on the us economy itself. for instance, if china decides to dump us assets, the us will need to raise the interest rate by a large margin, lower the price of its government debts to finance its twin deficits. from the morgage payments of us households to the price of ski boots in the us will increased by muiltiple times --- the results of which: huge depreciation of the dollar, historically high inflation, historically high interest rate (higher than the 70's level). these will all lead to depression.

and then the entire world will be affected. the economic system will collapse following the collapse of the us dollar.

a whole series of uncertain economic disastars are also likely to happen.

in conclusion, starting any military disputes with china for the us, means creating an economic depression for itself and everyone else in the world. the main concern of such a conflict is not simply casualty or anything like that but a global economic crisis that affects pretty much everyone of all classes in every country.

defending taiwan to prevent the reunification of china is, by no means, the interest of the us nor any other players in the world.

being friendly to one another will be in the interest of both china and the us.

when a country cannot sustain a war economically, it is bound to lose it no matter how great of a military it has. a war also does not have to have a winner. the soviet union was bound to lose the cold war when it started

I thank you for taking the time to respond to my statement and have enjoyed reading what you had to say on the issue. You have revealed to me more in depth how greatly the chinese and american economies are linked, a stunning fact but half expected.

I agree with everything you have to say but would just like to add that the way the economy is set at the moment, it is favoring chinese developement and disfavoring the continuing existence of the western world middle class. A war would cause a depression without doubt and complete economic disarray around the world as you say, but I think the chinese massive developement would also be set back seeing how it's growth depends on taking advantage of the decline of the west; if such a conflict would suddenly take place, all foreign american production in China would cease.

So America would definitely fall but so too would China. It's as you say, the nations are too interlinked to just go to war. We must however admit that China and America are the superpowers of the future and seeing their relations endure is something we must all hope for...and as the chinese economy develops, so too will it's military and it is at this point when America's invisibility could then maybe be put into question.

Personally it does not matter to me if China grows strong, as long as the middle class of the western world is able to exist giving as many people the opportunity to live their potential, and the way we're headed, that may not always be so.

What would u say to the eventuality of a global minimum wage? A very far fetched solution but perhaps a noble one. What do you think would have to happen before this could take place?

ps: Thnx again coolstorm for your commentary, I appreciate it

 

We are all a result of what we have lived. Culture, attitude, perspective. For everything we do, there is a reason. There is no true evil, only the absence of proper communication.
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