The future of Karabakh

Currently the negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia on the resolution of the Karabakh conflict, resulting from Armenian agression into sovereign Azeri Turk territory, are stalled. I am just interested to know the opinions of forum members of what the future will bring.

Obviously it is in the best interest of everybody that a conflict and resurgence of violance be avoided, and the objective is to achieve a solution allowing as many refugees as possible to return. Of course any solution should also maintiain an ethnic seggregation between Armenians and Azeri Turks as the two people have shown that they are utterly incapable of living together in peace.

So my proposal in order to meet these objectives would be to cede the currently occupied territory of Karabakh to Armenia with the Lachin corridor in order to provide continuity between Armenia and the Karabakh enclave. In return Armenia must cede the Zanzibar corridor to provide  a continuty between Azerbaijan and the Nakchievan exclave.

All Armenian troops must immediately and uncoditionally withdraw from the rest of the sovereign Azerbaijan territories, namely the districts of Gubadli, Zengilan,Kelebecer,Agdam,Fizuli,Jabrail.

Is this acceptable to the Armenian side, and if not - what is their counterproposal?

Originally posted by mamikon give Zanzibar (Zangezur) back to Azeries?

ok, Zangezur. I was wondering what the name of that province was.

What about the people? there are Armenians living there?

They should be moved to Lachin. Azeris lived in Lanchin as well (or used to live before the Armenian invasion).

What about Iran? that is Armenia's only connection with Iran.

It is also Azerbaijan's only connection with Nakchievan and Turkey.

I have a feeling this thread is going to have a bleak future...

I did not want to turn it into you-did-this-you-did-that kind of thread, so I ask that you offer constructive and fair suggestions towards the resolution of the problem. How do you see the resolution of this conflict? What wil the future bring? Is it at all possible to resolve it through non-violant means?


Edited by bg_turk - 12-Jul-2006 at 17:07

All I am asking you is how do you think the conflict will be resolved? What are the Armenian proposals? How do you see the future?

Originally posted by Artaxiad The Azeris have no choice but to officially acknowledge Nagorno-Karabagh as being an independent republic.

Legally NK is a secetionist entity created on the ethnic cleansing a million  Azeri Turks, and it will never be recognized as an independent republic for so long as it does not provide remedy to all the refugees displaced during its creation.

It is possible that during the negotiations, Armenia would accept giving some of the buffer zone that it occupied (which is located outside the frontiers of Nagorno-Karabagh) but nothing else.

Armenia, has no choice but to vacate ALL the territories illegally occupied by her and recognized internationally as being under the soveregnity of Azerbaijan.

Sovereign Armenia doesn't have to give any part of its territory to Azerbaijan.

An Armenia that does not recognize the soveregnity of another state, expects her soveregnity to be recognized? On what grounds?

There's absolutely no point in doing that, especially when Nakhichevan has no respect to Armenian cultural heritage of its territory. The only thing that it can cede is access to the road that links Azerbaijan to Nakhichevan, and that is only if Azerbaijan accepts opening its own borders.

What an intransigent attitude. So you are leaving Azerbaijan no choice but to reclaim by force what was taken from her by force.
Sooner or later Armenian will have to vacate the territories occupied by her and compromise. With the current climate in the region her position is simly unsustainable against the growing millitary and economic power of Azerbaijan.

Originally posted by Artaxiad Why? Because Karabagh and Armenia don't have to be treated as the losers of the war.

Armenia failed to gain victory in the conflict because Azerbaijan never specified defeat in a legal document. The war is ongoing, there is no peace now, what we have at the moment is a ceasefire. In order to avoid further bloodshed and renewal of hostilitiies an acceptable peace agreement must be signed. Your triumphalist and condescending attitude towards the Turkish side is not helping towards reaching  this objective in any way.  At the moment Armenia has territoritorial claims towards at least 3 of her 4 neighbours. Armenia must stop these maximalist demands, and try to reach a compromise. Armenia should not bite more than she can chew relying on an uninterrupted Russian support. A small instability in neighbouring Russia would be sufficient to turn around the tabels, and tilt the balance of power badly in favor of her opponents; or even an interruption of the energt supplies from Russia would render Armenia helpless. It is not in Armenia's best interest to escalate the situtation.

Originally posted by bg_turk Legally NK is a secetionist entity created on the ethnic cleansing a million  Azeri Turks, and it will never be recognized as an independent republic for so long as it does not provide remedy to all the refugees displaced during its creation.

     There were not a million people living in Karabagh, let alone a million Azeris (we already said Azeri refugees were around 750,000, not 1 million). The population of Karabagh in 1920 was over 90% Armenian, and just before the war it was over 75%. The Azeri government altered the demographics by moving in hordes of Azeris into Karabagh and Nakhichevan, which lost all of its Armenian population (and lately they destroyed all trace that Armenians existed in Nakhichevan by destroying ancient Armenian cemeteries via military/government order). Funny how no one mentions that!

     Armenia doesn't have any outrageous demands, it only wants to ensure Karabagh does not fall under Azeri occupation (because of their failure to end their discriminatory policies through peaceful means). The buffer zone is only occupied because otherwise Karabagh would be landlocked in Azerbaijan and subsequently blockaded from all sides. Giving up the buffer zone would be suicide. Maybe if Turkey and Azerbaijan lift their blockades then they can start talking about giving lands back. First they must recognize Armenia exists as their neighbor...

     I don't see Turkey or Azerbaijan giving back territories they took from Armenia through war, so I don't see why Armenia should act any different (unless you have double standards?). Call it stubborn, but why should tiny Armenia give anything up when it has so little compared to its neighbors? And please don't tell me Armenia is in better shape than Azerbaijan... Azerbaijan has sea access and oil deposits/pipelines, while Armenia is landlocked, blockaded on both sides and with no natural resources. Armenia's only real trading partner, Iran, is a step away from being sanctioned by the U.N. Times are not good for Armenia in this respect, which is why they would not give up an inch of land to anybody...

Originally posted by bg_turk Armenia failed to gain victory in the conflict because Azerbaijan never specified defeat in a legal document.

     Legally you may be right. But lets be realistic...who controls Karabagh? Not Azerbaijan. Everyday they talk about how they're going to get the lands back...if they could, they would do it. The point is that they can't.

Originally posted by bg_turk It is not in Armenia's best interest to escalate the situtation.

     Thats what Aliyev and his commanders thought the first time around. Its not in Azerbaijan's best interest to provoke Armenians to go to war. Not according to the last war, anyway. The Azeri military, with more soldiers and better weapons, fighting from a defensive position on a mountainous province, and they still lose? If they couldn't defend an occupied province from an inferior enemy, how would they attack and take it when the enemy is now prepared and in defensive positions? I don't think you know how mountainous Karabagh actually is. I've been there, and all I can tell the Azeris is "good luck".


     Question of the day: Why is it taking Azerbaijan over a decade to house its refugees (Armenia took care of this problem years ago)? Are they even taking any steps towards this problem, or are they simply leaving them homeless on purpose in order to muster hatred among Azeris towards Armenians for a future war effort? Hmm...


Edited by ArmenianSurvival - 13-Jul-2006 at 16:50

     Well Armenia had 200,000-300,000 refugees (out of a population of 3 million), and then there was an earthquake in 1988 which killed 25,000 and left many more homeless. How was Armenia able to take care of its refugees even while being landlocked and blockaded, but Azerbaijan couldn't? The point of my question was to scrutinize the government of Azerbaijan, not to laugh at others' misfortunes. Its clear that they leave these people homeless on purpose in order to generate hatred towards Armenians (afterall they have Armenian flag-burning factories operating in Azerbaijan).

     And what do you call the ethnic cleansing in Nakhichevan, and the government order to destroy ancient Armenian cemeteries? Do you really want Armenians living under such a regime?


Edited by ArmenianSurvival - 13-Jul-2006 at 18:10

Originally posted by ArmenianSurvival      Well Armenia had 200,000-300,000 refugees (out of a population of 3 million), and then there was an earthquake in 1988 which killed 25,000 and left many more homeless.

After stealing the homes of more than a million Azeris, the Armenian regime had an abundance of accomodation to provid as yourself should have noted during your visits to the occupied territories of Azerbaijan.

Azerbayjan is entirely isolated in this conflict and is backed by nobody.

Today, its "officially" backed by nobody your correct, it was for years at the mercy of Armenian terrorism and ethnic cleansing programs. But nothing stays the same, today the B-T-C opened, the Iran crisis is growing, more deals have been signed, things from today have changed.

Russia would never suppor Azerbaijan, for she sees in Armenia a historical and loyal ally.

Your correct about Russia being anti-Azerbaycan but your reasons are incorrect. Armenia means as little to Russia as Azerbaycan does, it doesn't simply support Armenia cos its a "pal" or because it feels some kind of emotional attachment towards it. No, the reason is simple, Armenia is the only country left in the Caucauses which obeys them and is in their mercy. They have alot of dominance, millitary bases and its a last hold for the Russians. In addition, Russia didn't want to loose its oil prospects in Azerbaycan or want any Natural Gas and Oil rivals to its long-term monopoly in supplying the West.

Iran, too is hostile towards Azerbaijan, fearing secetionist activitiy amongst its Azeri minority.

Totally correct, a succesfull Azerbaycan is Iran's worst nightmare. Already unrest is growing South of Azerbaycan's border it will only intesify if Azerbaycan and pro-Turk thinking rises in the area.

Infact, ever since Azerbaycan's first independance back in the first world war, Iran and Russia have done nothing except try to destroy it. When the Republic was re-established again after the break-up of the Soviet Union again Iran and Russia tried so hard to wipe Azerbaycan off the map. They were determined to makesure Azerbaycan failed and never poked its head up again.

But they both failed, so did Armenia, even after all the massacred, the crimes and oppression it has managed to survive and even move forward and has a brighter future than other countries in the region.

USA, is also adopting a very pro-Armenian position, which can be easily explained as it is under heavy pressure from the Armenian lobby. Until recently the USA had an article which banned any direct aid to Azerbaijan, whereas Armenia, after Israel, was the biggest recipient of US aid.

The reason for this has been due to the "Armenian Lobby", it practically funds Armenia with its hand-outs and charity at the expense of the American tax payer. They have also forced the U.S to turn a blind eye to their ethnic cleansing program against Azeri Turks and illegally occupying their land.

However, America is interested in its "interests". Russia is not finished as it assumed, the Iran problem is brewing, Iraq is in havoc. Now more than ever, America needs a safe, reliable, stable source of energy. It needs to proove that countries with muslim populations can be democratic, a friend of the West and be technologically advanced, improve human rights and freedoms etc.

Today more than ever, America needs not only Turkey but the other Turkic countries who are following a similar model in some aspects.

Now, it has a choice, will it be bullied by the Armenian lobby into simply rejecting making deals, agreements and improving relations with Turks simply because their Turks and Armenians don't like them. Will it allow itself to loose out on a big chance, pushing them instead closer to Russia or even extremism and stance's like Iran. The U.S doesn't want a dozen other Iran's to cut off its energy alltogether.

Armenians have been able to get away with their behaviour because they didn't conflict with America's interests for a long time. But the situation has changed, Armenian Lobbies will have to take the back-seat.

Today Armenia offers nothing to America, absolutely nothing, its a waste of the tax-payers funds on a state which offers no energy resources, no strategic importance, is inward-looking and doesn't help U.s strategies at all.

The more deals Azerbaycan completes, the bigger and more powerfull its hand gets. Ultimately in the long-run Armenia will loose out because they are too busy just thinking about today and not planning for the future. What does the Armenian Lobby care about the situation in the country Armenia, their living cosy lifes in America and think its the same back there.
    

p.s If you want to know what Azerbaycan-Turkey relations are today, go there and see for yourselves, there is a famous phrase, what is it? one nations two coountries... the two countries are moving closer and closer together and will continue to do so.
    

Edited by Bulldog - 13-Jul-2006 at 20:00

yes, lets hope everything ends fine and daddy for poor oil rich Azeries 

hopefully the next stop for these pesky Armenians is the inferno...