To accomplish his plan, Tamerlane would have to beat or conquer the steep folks all the way to China, certainly a hard job. Then he would face the strongest emperor of Ming Dynasty, Zhu Li (Ming Cheng Zu or Yongle Di). Some Chinese friends said he would have his good leg broken too and ass kicked. While some pessimists, on the other hand, said China would be Islamized if it really happen.

What's your opinion?

Yeah he had a really good chance;i mean look at the guy he was the only thing that held an empire together.As he said:"Ý am the scourage of god appointed to chatise you,since no one knows the remedy for your iniquity exept me.You are wicked but i am more wicked than you so be silent!"Even his words smell of power. 

My Turkish friends, you may not know much about Yongle Emperor that was ruling China that time. He would be a real match to Tamerlane!

Some info about him:

Between 1405 and 1433,  Yongle Emperor strenuously tried to extend China's influence beyond her borders by encouraging other rulers to send ambassadors to China to present tribute. The Chinese armies reconquered Annam and blocked Mongol expansionism, while the Chinese fleet sailed the China seas and the Indian Ocean, cruising as far as the east coast of Africa. The Chinese gained a certain influence over Turkestan. The maritime Asian nations sent envoys with tribute for the Chinese emperor. Internally, the Grand Canal was expanded to its farthest limits and proved to be a stimulus to domestic trade.

The most extraordinary venture, however, during this stage was the dispatch Zheng He's seven naval expeditions, which traversed the Indian Ocean and the Southeast Asian archipelago. An ambitious Muslim eunuch of Mongol descent, a quintessential outsider in the establishment of Confucian scholar elites, Zheng He led seven expeditions from 1405 to 1433 with six of them under the auspices of Yongle, traversing perhaps as far as the Cape of Good Hope. His appointment in 1403 to lead a sea-faring task force was a triumph the commercial lobbies seeking to stimulate conventional trade, not mercantilism. The interests of the commercial lobbies and those of the religious lobbies were also linked. Both offensive of the neo-Confucian sensibilities of the scholarly elite, religious lobbies encouraged commercialism and exploration to divert state funds from the anti-clerical efforts of the Confucian scholar gentry. The first expedition in 1405 consisted of 62 ships and 28,000 men--then the largest naval expedition in history. Zheng He's multi-decked ships carried up to 500 troops but also cargoes of export goods, mainly silks and porcelains, and brought back foreign luxuries such as spices and tropical woods.

Please take the reference in The Steppe Empire, a good book on history of Middle Asia.I found an online edition of it (in Chinese, guess you may read it ) http://http://www.shuku.net/novels/zatan/cydglngls/cydg11.html - http://http://www.shuku.net/novels/zatan/cydglngls/cydg11.ht ml

On my opinion, if Tamerlane's plan were carried out, Supposed he could reach the border of Ming China, his army might win a few battles at north-west China. Then he would meet big troubles near the Great Wall. Even if he could mangaged to break through this line of defence (inevitably in price of great casualty), he would found his army were badly outnumbered by his enemy, who equiped with  the weapon that he had never seen, such as rocky arrows and gun-power bomb. He also had to face lots of defence works that much solider than those he had conquerred in the middle Asia.If he were lucky enough, he might come close to the capital of Ming Dynasty of that time, Nan Jing. To start the siege, he had to cross the thrid largest river of the world, the Yangtse River. Now I think there would be his real headache, the overwhelming fleet of the Ming Navy, something like that Zheng He had led to take on his expedition. Then Tamerlane would slump into dilemma. His come-off wouldn't be good in that situation. 

he could never have conquered china as ming was at its height.

To be fair, it does not take much time for him to know about the facts and make a judgement.

which proves my point.

he wasn't that much of a threat to the chinese that he's not even mentioned in chinese history books unlike the earlier mongols, jerchens, kitans, tibetans etc...

"Maybe a part of China, but not China as a whole.. "

I have to agree there. Sometimes the Chinese would just send tribute if they think it costs less than the war. Considering that both empires are very prosperous and powerful, I think that's what the Chinese would do(I give you this and that if you go away) right when they are in the border. 

"he's not even mentioned in chinese history books unlike the earlier mongols, jerchens, kitans, tibetans etc..."

Actually he is. My friend claimed to have read him in a Chinese history book and he's planned invasion of China, which was stopped by his death. But that was a long time ago<like the 1970s-1980s>, maybe they stopped mentioning him now, I don't know.

but every chinese knows of george washington, and everyone knows about napolean.

tamerlane is, however, not as well known.

Tamerlane's plan was not just for economic purpose. He meant to convert all Chinese into Muslim through his conquest. So I don't think some tribute from Ming court could stop him. On the other hand, given the personality of Yongle Emperor,he was too self-esteem and bellicose to make such a compromise without a real fight. 

As what I mentioned in my post, this topic is a hot stuff on Chinese military or historian wetsite. Tamerlane is more well known than what you imagined among Chinese, coolstorm.

(The portait of Yongle Emperor, Zhu Di)

maybe in mainland china.

i'm positive that most people in hk don't know about tamerlane.

    most HK people dun know about a lotta things

 BTW oodog...that's a great portrait of Judy you got there.

yeah, most people look down on mainland cantonese, too, your fellow people.

is that what u want them to continue to do?

i don't do that however.

       please...go ahead...

    there is no such thing as "my fellow people"...that dun work on me...there's only me and everyone else.

Oh, bluebaby and coolstorm, r u 2 just "mix up the bones"? (you know this cantonese idiom)

" My friend claimed to have read him in a Chinese history book and he's planned invasion of China, which was stopped by his death. "

Which is in modern books, the Ming Shi mentions nothing about Timerlane's political designs, simply because he was too far away to matter. Anyone studying the geography of the Taklamakan desert cwould know the difficultly invovled in crossing that frontier. As for Timerlane taking the whole of Ming in one campaign, its as ridiculous as the Ming sailing to Hermuz and land a troop there and march to Samarkand. Even Genghis with all that proximity and horsepower advantage with roughly the same forces that Timerlane set out could not take the Jin in two campaigns and he also had the support of the Xia as a right hand. Add to this is the deterioration of the Jin both militarily and politically and the fact that it only ruled the North. To take the South, a powerful fleet is essential, and there is little time remains in Timerlane's life to fight another half a century even assume he wipes out every Ming army that is sent against him, which is highly unlikely to begin with, since Zhu Di's army is known to have crushed the Oirats who deployed the same tactics plentity of times.

If you were before arguing of the names he had then sometimes here he is called Timur Lonkur, but that was not the issue.

You two, three made me now interested in later Chinese history and i am reading few books what might specifify a little bit more excactlier if he might had won China that time, but i think he might have, as in war everything is possible, and if two armies, consisting of the same troops have collided, a defeat has quickly come for one half. I am trying to understand now who it would be in the Zhu Di-Tamerlane collision.

For a huge country like Ming China, it was impossible to conquer it by only one or two vitories in the battlefield. Looking into the history, it usually took a emerging power decades or even generations to fully defeat the declining central regime and become the master of the Middle Empire after a series of bloody wars.

That's almost half the Ming population. I doubt it'll drop that much.

As for being less-well trained...give me a break. Ming just kicked the Mongols out, they would naturally be well trained. Of course, that doesn't mean Timur couldn't have invaded China, I just think that the chances are fairly small, due to logistics.

What do you mean "less well trained Chinese army?"

During the Yongle reign, three training camps were set up to train infantry, cavalry (using Mongolian instructors) and artillery. Plus, how would 200.000 warriors succesfully siege a city with 900.000 defenders?  

Timur had superior cavalry, but all things considered the Chinese would have a decisive advantage. unlike during the earlier Mongol invasions, the great wall was in full operation, and was guarded with a variety of cannons, including five heavy bombards placed at each frontier pass. In addition, Yongle and his generals had extensive experience fighting nomad-type cavalry.

Ok, here is my take on this situation:

Timur missed the best time to attack China.  Three years prior to his campaign, China was in the process of civil war, with Zhu Di (the later Yongle Emperor) commanding his Northern armies South to take the Southern capital Nanjing, against his nephew, who was emperor at the time.  Zhu Di eventually won the civil war, but I can imagine the damage that Timur would be able to do to disrupt the Ming if he started three years in advance.

I have no doubt about the ferocity of Timur and believe that he is a good warrior.  I would place my bets on Timur if his army and the Ming army met somewhere in central Asia.

However, for an invasion of China, the situation would be different, due to logistical reasons.  The Ming Empire under Yongle Emperor was at its height and its armies had plenty of experience fighting against Mongols in the campaigns into Mongolia during the latter years of the 1300s.  After a century of Mongol rule, the Chinese population was extremely hostile against foreigners, especially Mongols and Persians.  Remember that it took the Mongols 40 years to take over the Song Dynasty in Southern China, and that the Song army was much. much weaker than the Ming army. 

Thus, my conclusion:

Phase 1

A. Timur would use his strengths to seriously damage the Ming Chinese garrisons and border troops in the west

B. Timur woud lay seige to a couple of cities in the western border of the Ming state, taking his time to rape and plunder

C. The Mongols would probably ally with Timur and lead an expedition south of the Gobi Desert

Phase 2

D. Emperor Yongle's strengths lay in the North (he was Prince of Yan and consolidated his power in the North), so he would not have too much trouble rallying his personal troops against the Mongols.  Yongle was a fierce commander who excelled in cavalry warfare.  He would either slaughter Mongols, scare them North, or sign a secret treaty with them.  (I am not exaggerating Yongle's ability and aggressiveness - the man could be as bloodthirsty as Timur at times.  If Timur is compared to Hitler, then Yongle would be compared to Stalin.  Yongle was above all a militant leader who excelled in killing, and was noted for his love of the martial arts.  As Prince of Yan, he was posted in Beijing for years to counter Mongols, and had personal experience fighting in cavalry warfare.)

E. Timur would rely on his blood and iron tactics to gobble up all the lands west of Tongguan Pass.  More rape and plunder follows.

F. The Chinese generals hold Tongguan Pass and Hanzhong, taking advantage of the mountaineous terrain.  Timur's cavalry would become useless at the chokepoints, and any further advance would result in falling into well laid traps.  Chinese reinforcements from the Southern and Eastern provinces would come to aid, barracading Tamerlane and preparing to launch a counter-offensive.

Phase 3.

G. Timur would realize that he had reached the extent of his campaign. He would be faced with three choices

1. Include the newly conquered western Chinese provinces into his empire, like the Mongols 

2.  Set up a vassal/puppet state under the nominial rule of a Chinese governor 

3. Rape, pillage, and plunder as much as he could and return to Samarkand with his loot.

If he chose 1, the populance would soon revolt due to widespread hatred of Mongol/Persian/Turkic rule, with the help of a strong, militarily versatile Ming Empire.

If he chose 2, the new vassal state would either declare independence or, most likely, be annexed back into the Ming.

The most logical choice would be 3.  Tamerlane would gain most by plundering while the Chinese troops are still in defensive stance and then withdrawing to Samarkand, becoming the richest man in the world and avoiding major losses to his troops.  The western borders of Ming China would be ravaged again on the way back.  It would take years for recovery and thus Tamerlane would secure his monopoly of the Silk Road.

Strategically, Tamerlane would win most if he attacked China, plundered, and swiftly returned to Samarkand before a counter-offensive of the Ming army could be organized.

That is, provided Tamerlane did not die on the way there (which he did)

Sidenote: Any mention of a battle in Beijing is unrealistic unless Tamerlane forms an alliance with the Mongols.  Tamerlane's army is marching from west to east; that means travelling from the Tarim Basin to Gansu and then into the Guanzhong region west of Tongguan Pass.  To reach Beijing via the speedest route, Tamerlane would have to either ally with the Mongols or subdue the Mongols to bypass the Tongguan Pass and attack Beijing via Mongolia.

As a fun diversion, I played Genghis Khan IV when I was younger, and this is how Koei ranked Yongle and Tamerlane.  Then compare to how these two figures match up to Chingghis Khan and others according to Koei(a Japanese company, so no bias to either side).  Again, this is purely hypothetical and for entertainment purposes only.  The highest ranking in any category, politics, warfare, and intelligence, is 100.

Tamerlane: Politics->80   Warfare->98   Intelligence->91

Zhu Di or Yongle Emperor: Politics->84   Warfare->96   Intelligence->86

Bayzid, Ottoman Sultan: Politics->78  Warfare->85  Intelligence->77

Chingghis Khan: Politics->80   Warfare->97   Intelligence->92

Khublai Khan: Politics->87  Warfare->84  Intelligence->85

Hulegu Khan: Politics-> 78  Warfare->86  Intelligence->83

Subotai: Politics->upper 50s  Warfare->93  Intelligence->not sure

Jebe: Politics->mid 50s  Warfare->92  Intelligence->81

Muquali:  Politics->78  Warfare->91  Intelligence->82

Jalal-ad-Din: Politics->don't remember  Warfare->85  Intelligence->not sure

Richard I the Lionheart: Politics->upper 40s  Warfare->98  Intelligence->85

Saladin: Politics->78  Warfare->91  Intelligence->85

Baybars: Politics->78  Warfare->94  Intelligence->82

Frederick II: Politics->77  Warfare->72  Intelligence->100

William Wallace(haha):  Politics->upper 40s  Warfare->94  Intelligence->92

Edward the Black Prince: Politics-> upper 50s  Warfare->95  Intelligence->not sure

Zhu Yuanzhang (Yongle's father and first Ming Emperor): Politics->91  Warfare->72  Intelligence->92

Hsu Da, Ming general: Politics->65  Warfare->90  Intelligence->85

Zheng He, Ming Admiral and envoy:  Politics->78  Warfare->87  Intelligence->85

Simply ranking warfare, these figures ranked highest:

1. Tamerlane, Richard I ->98

2. Chingghis Khan ->97

3. Zhu Di or Yongle ->96

4. Edward the Black Prince -> 95

5. Baybars, Willl Wallace(too much Braveheart!) ->94

6. Subotai->93

7. Jebe->92

8. Muquali, Saladin ->91

9. Hsu Da -> 90

I agree to an extent, but I would say Hitler's Operation Barbarossa is even more appropriate.  A quick advance, followed by an extruciating standstill, and followed by inevitable defeat and retreat.  The extent of Timur's conquest of Ming China will be around 1/8 of the Ming Empire, meaning the northwestern provinces of Gansu and Shannxi. 

Timur will quickly conquer all lands west of Tongguan Pass and North of Hanzhong.  After that it will be a standstill, before the eventual Ming counterattack.  In terms of field battle, Timur has the upper hand.  However, Timur will be fighting in a foreign land, and the Ming has fortifications and gunpowder to its advantage.  Plus, this is a Ming military better geared towards cavalry warfare than its precedessors - only a decade ago, it sacked the Mongol heartland and almost captured the Mongol Khan.

I am not very sure....looks there were more than 70,000,000 at the end of 14th century, you can get this from a history of chinese population numbers by a chinese historian called Ge, Jianxiong

Originally posted by vulkan02 Nice analysis....i was honestly thinking something of the sort would probably happen as well. The population in Western china would be devastated by Timur. Does anyone know how many people were living under Yong Le's rule??

Originally posted by Imperator Invictus Wow interesting stats. I wonder how  William Wallace got into a game about Genghis Khan.

You can play as England in this game.  In fact, you can play as any faction within the Eurasian continent. 

Firearms were not decisive weapons for victory until much later. And Tamerlane defeated quite a few powerful firearm-infantry based armies of the period, including those of Sultan Bayazit and those of the Delhi Sultanate.The decisive victorious weapons of the day still were the quick and enduring horses of the northern steppe and the Mongolian bow. But the real secret of Timur’s military success was his composite army, consisting of light Mongolian and heavy Central Asian cavallery, Indian elephants, infantry, fire arms, although invented in China but improved in the 14th century in India, western Asia and Europe, and advanced western Asian besieging technology. Depending on the military situation in a battle Timur was able to use one or the other of these weapons to reach a decisive advantage (f.e. elephants against Bayazid). Alexander the Great before him and Napoleon after him followed the same rule.

Chinese army had lot of experience to fight those huge animals like elephant. Dated back to more than 1000 years before Ming dynasty, chinese army had yet encountered and defeated the elephant based vietnam or Yue troops in the South Asia and South east Asia.

Chinese firearm technology was improved in only Europe. One 16thc European observed that Iranian soldiers were so unfamiliar with firearms that they were "Afraid of artillery beyond measure" (source: Firearms: a Global History to 1700, Kenneth Chase) they never made any such observations about the Chinese. Indeed, Chinese firearm technology was only surpassed in Europe by the late 15th century.

On a sidenote, where are your sources?

Whats your prove that Timur's cavalry is superior to the Ming? Its not like Timur is a nomad, he is sedentary just like the Ming. So what is the prove that his cavalry are better? actually in equipment, Ming is far superior, they had much better armours and weapons, the MingGuan Jia is one of the best armours in the world. Ming cavalry had the heavy two handed shaft weapons that can cut down opponent's heavy cavalries.

Other than that, Timur's infantry is nothing close to the discipline and efficiency of the Ming, the Ming army is the best in both quality and quantity at that time, Timur's invasion would be a suicide, its like a mosquito trying to bite an elephant. The elephant will just step on it like nothing happened.

Timurs 200,000 cavalry will be utterly destroyed by the Ming's millions of men army, even if Zhu Di just brought 200,000 vs. 200,000 in a fair fight, Timur will still be defeated and run back to Persia, It would be lucky then that Zhu Di wouldn't pursue ainto his capital itself and make it into a prefecture.

No way, Genghis had surprise and a weaker opponent.

At best his armies would have tired out sooner or later, the quality, numbers and home advantage of the Ming Army would have required constant tactical supremacy for several years in order to properly occupy China for generations to come.