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Is Israel about to strike at Iran?

Printed From: History Community ~ All Empires
Category: Regional History or Period History
Forum Name: AE Geopolitical Institute
Forum Discription: Implications of Strategic Policies.
URL: http://www.allempires.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=24812
Printed Date: 28-Apr-2024 at 02:25
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Topic: Is Israel about to strike at Iran?
Posted By: Kevin
Subject: Is Israel about to strike at Iran?
Date Posted: 07-Jul-2008 at 02:00
I'm starting to piece toghther evidence that Israel is preparing to strike at Iran's nuclear program. Reasons being as most people have heard about the IAF manevuars in the Mederaterian and the rumors that Israel will hit Iran if Senator Obama is elected President of my nation in November and try to seek a green light from out going President Bush's Adminstration to do it. In my opinion this all makes perfect sense as if a President Obama is in power in Washington, he is going to be preparing in terms of foreign policy to begin diplomatic talks with the Iranians over their nuclear program. This would therefore block any possible Israeli attempt to strike at Iran without having a massive falling out with Obama's Adminstartion in Washington. In addtion any after effects of a strike on Iran that would effect Israel would tie a President elect Obama to Israeli's and one his Preesidenc couldn't fail to deviler on without having a bad effect on US-Israeli Relations and no to mention the future outlook for his Adminstartion in Washington or with the Jewish Community which has at least some doubts with him to begin with. However if Israel does nonthing in the transition months they will be powerless to do nothing in the future in regards to Iran.

What does everyone think?                  



Replies:
Posted By: pikeshot1600
Date Posted: 07-Jul-2008 at 02:54
Geopolitical considerations are more permanent and more important than governmental elections.  It is not in the interests of either the US or of Israel to strike Iran.  Iran can and will be contained regardless of nuclear weapons.
 
It has been noted before that Israeli strategic capability is primarily defensive, and that demonstrations, such as over the Med, are for public consumption.  Israeli capability cannot be dismissed, but sustaining complex operations so far from their own territory would be too difficult.
 
What Obama will or won't do is yet to be determined.  First, he has to win the election, and then get support among congressional leadership for policies that could impact US interests.  Election rhetoric cannot be considered policy in any way.  Numerous policy statements in summer, 2008 can (and probably will) change by winter, 2009.  In any event, Olmert has his own domestic issues, and is a wounded lame duck in Israel.
 
Anyway, it is unwise to over emphasize Presidential/Congressional elections when making assessments of geopolitical interests.  Those do not change much...ever.  Politicians come and go.  Allies materialize and disappear.  Assessments of vital interests; of where those are, and of options to attain or to protect them are made every day by all powers.  Israel understands that unilateral action in the absence of an attack will, these days, cost far more than can be gained.  No net advantage there.
 
Iranians are smart people.  They are not likely to damage their interests by attacking Israel with nuclear weapons even 1) if they had them, and 2) if they had dependable delivery systems which they don't.  Iran's strengths are defensive technology and asymmetrical experience.  That is fine, but neither are strategic in nature, but are essentially political bargaining points.
 
Over time, Iran is going to have bigger problems than an Israeli state that doesn't even border their territory, and should not even be considered a threat to Iran.  Regardless of posturing and of publicity, Iran's geostrategic position is very weak, and her conduct of geopolitical policies is quite shortsighted.
 
 


Posted By: Kevin
Date Posted: 07-Jul-2008 at 03:08
Originally posted by pikeshot1600

Geopolitical considerations are more permanent and more important than governmental elections.  It is not in the interests of either the US or of Israel to strike Iran.  Iran can and will be contained regardless of nuclear weapons.
 

It has been noted before that Israeli strategic capability is primarily defensive, and that demonstrations, such as over the Med, are for public consumption.  Israeli capability cannot be dismissed, but sustaining complex operations so far from their own territory would be too difficult.

 

What Obama will or won't do is yet to be determined.  First, he has to win the election, and then get support among congressional leadership for policies that could impact US interests.  Election rhetoric cannot be considered policy in any way.  Numerous policy statements in summer, 2008 can (and probably will) change by winter, 2009.  In any event, Olmert has his own domestic issues, and is a wounded lame duck in Israel.

 

Anyway, it is unwise to over emphasize Presidential/Congressional elections when making assessments of geopolitical interests.  Those do not change much...ever.  Politicians come and go.  Allies materialize and disappear.  Assessments of vital interests; of where those are, and of options to attain or to protect them are made every day by all powers.  Israel understands that unilateral action in the absence of an attack will, these days, cost far more than can be gained.  No net advantage there.

 

Iranians are smart people.  They are not likely to damage their interests by attacking Israel with nuclear weapons even 1) if they had them, and 2) if they had dependable delivery systems which they don't.  Iran's strengths are defensive technology and asymmetrical experience.  That is fine, but neither are strategic in nature, but are essentially political bargaining points.

 

Over time, Iran is going to have bigger problems than an Israeli state that doesn't even border their territory, and should not even be considered a threat to Iran.  Regardless of posturing and of publicity, Iran's geostrategic position is very weak, and her conduct of geopolitical policies is quite shortsighted.

 

 


I was just talking about if Israel does strike at Iran, looking at things I don't think Iran is actually going to hit Israel as they want these weapons for other possible issues as well. In addition keep in mind Israel also fears the possiblty of a nuclear armed Iran giving such weapons to other entities in the region that are outright hostile to Israel.     


Posted By: pikeshot1600
Date Posted: 07-Jul-2008 at 03:09
Kevin:
 
Don't look for Iran to give any nukes to Sunni Moslem states.  Wink
 
 


Posted By: Kevin
Date Posted: 07-Jul-2008 at 03:12
Originally posted by pikeshot1600

Kevin:
 

Don't look for Iran to give any nukes to Sunni Moslem states.  Wink

 

 


I'm talking more about Hezbollah, or perhaps even Syria?


Posted By: Kevin
Date Posted: 07-Jul-2008 at 03:13
Originally posted by Kevin

Originally posted by pikeshot1600

Kevin:
 

Don't look for Iran to give any nukes to Sunni Moslem states.  Wink

 

 


I'm talking more about Hezbollah, or perhaps even Syria?


However that would be geopolitcal suicide for all parties involved in such a transaction.


Posted By: rider
Date Posted: 07-Jul-2008 at 11:42

Bush would certainly love to leave another war for his successors to solve. 

But, wouldn't the truth be that Iran will have counterstruck before the Israeli missiles land? So, we'd have a nuclear war that would decimate the entire Near East... 



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Posted By: Leonidas
Date Posted: 07-Jul-2008 at 12:23
Iran can hit Israel with a number of N korean misile knock offs and more effectivly via hezbollah.

But they don't, as far as we know, have the capacity to weaponise uranium (or have enough of that grade) let alone miniturise it for ballistic delivary. Iran would not invite a Isreal Nuke attack with a loner attack. It simply has more to lose.



Posted By: Vorian
Date Posted: 07-Jul-2008 at 12:37
Originally posted by pikeshot1600

Kevin:
 
Don't look for Iran to give any nukes to Sunni Moslem states.  Wink
 
 


Iran is Persian. Arabs don't really like them. Are there any other Siite states ecxept Iran and Iraq?


Posted By: Leonidas
Date Posted: 07-Jul-2008 at 13:13
Originally posted by Vorian

Originally posted by pikeshot1600

Kevin:
 
Don't look for Iran to give any nukes to Sunni Moslem states.  Wink
 
here's some more chatter on the topic
 


Iran is Persian. Arabs don't really like them. Are there any other Siite states ecxept Iran and Iraq?
Azerbaijan but they may not count as friends, Syria is run by an alawi regime but im not sure that really counts.


PENTAGON chiefs fear that Israeli plans for an attack on Iran's nuclear program will fail to destroy the facilities because neither the CIA nor Mossad knows where every base is located.

US commanders fear Israel will feel compelled to act within 12 months, with no guarantee that it can do more than slow Iran's development of a nuclear weapon.

Gaps in intelligence on the precise location and the vulnerabilities of Iran's facilities emerged during recent talks between Admiral Mike Mullen, the US chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Israeli generals.

The assessment emerged as Iran in effect thumbed its nose at proposals by the West for Tehran to freeze its uranium enrichment program in exchange for the easing of economic sanctions. In its reply sent to the European Union's foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, Iran said it was prepared to negotiate, but only from a position of equality, and made no reference to the specific proposals.

"Iran will not go back on its rights on the nuclear issue," said a Government spokesman, Gholamhossein Elham. "The will of the Iranian people is firm and will continue to follow the principles defined by the supreme guide [Ayatollah Ali Khamenei]."

"Iran insists on negotiations [with world powers] while respecting its rights and avoiding any loss of international rights," he said, referring to Tehran's refusal to give up on nuclear enrichment.

At the same time General Mohammed al-Jafari, the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, warned that any attack on Iran would be "regarded as the beginning of war".

A former head of Mossad, the Israeli agency whose main responsibility is overseas intelligence, said last week that Israel would have to act within a year to prevent Iran securing nuclear weapons.

Those familiar with the Israeli-American military talks believe that Israel is still determined to act before Iran has enough highly enriched uranium to build a bomb, and before Tehran has acquired the Russian SA-20 air defence system to protect its nuclear facilities.

"The Israelis have a real sense of urgency," an official familiar with the discussions said. "They are stepping up their preparations. But the Israelis and the Americans are worried about each other's lack of intelligence.

"The Americans had spies in Iran until they were rounded up in 2003 and now they do not have much by way of [human intelligence] on the ground. The Israelis have better information. But the Americans went away from the meetings unconvinced that the Israelis have enough intelligence on where to strike, and with little confidence that they will be able to destroy the nuclear program."

The shortage of good intelligence could explain reports that the US President, George Bush, has sanctioned a dramatic increase in covert operations by US special forces troops inside Iran. These intelligence gaps lay behind Admiral Mullen's decision to speak out on Wednesday against military action, saying it would be "extremely stressful" to "open a third front" in the "war on terror". The admiral is at odds with hawks in the Administration, led by the Vice-President, Dick Cheney.

A former CIA officer with 30 years of Iranian experience said: "The US would get the blame from Iran whether or not we play a major role in any attack, so we might as well do the job properly."

Telegraph, London; Agence France-Presse

http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/pentagon-afraid-of-ignorance-about-iran/2008/07/06/1215282653575.html -


Posted By: rider
Date Posted: 07-Jul-2008 at 15:37

The fact that Israeli Military is well trained, doesn't mean that they will win or even, succeed. If they launch their missiles, then Iran will do the same, and I have a feeling that Iran has more of them... (Both have intercontinental ballistic missile weaponry, right?)

Anyways, the only Israeli to do so, would most likely be a very old, bearded General that's insane. 



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Posted By: pikeshot1600
Date Posted: 07-Jul-2008 at 16:43
Originally posted by Vorian

Originally posted by pikeshot1600

Kevin:
 
Don't look for Iran to give any nukes to Sunni Moslem states.  Wink
 
 


Iran is Persian. Arabs don't really like them. Are there any other Siite states ecxept Iran and Iraq?
 
Iran is about half Persian, but it is a good point that Iran is mostly non-Arab.  Historically, relations between Persians and Arabs have not been good.  Arabs are concerned with the possibility of Iran's hegemony in the Gulf and in the region.  This is a geopolitical weakness in Iran's position as they remain isolated and viewed with suspicion by nearly all of their neighbors, and on almost all flanks.
 
As far as nukes are concerned, it matters not if Mullah Iran or non-Mullah Iran has nuclear capability, either is bad for the West as well as for regional powers.
 
 


Posted By: pikeshot1600
Date Posted: 07-Jul-2008 at 16:49
Originally posted by rider

The fact that Israeli Military is well trained, doesn't mean that they will win or even, succeed. If they launch their missiles, then Iran will do the same, and I have a feeling that Iran has more of them... (Both have intercontinental ballistic missile weaponry, right?)

Anyways, the only Israeli to do so, would most likely be a very old, bearded General that's insane. 

 
AFAIK, neither has intercontinental capability.  However, that technology is not so mysterious any longer, so it could be likely that they will aquire it before too long.  Their missile technology is intermediate in range; who knows about the sophistication of the guidance systems, and who knows about their multi-target capability?  They are not talking.
 
 


Posted By: pikeshot1600
Date Posted: 07-Jul-2008 at 17:02
Beyond this Iran-Israel fetish, what are the geopolitical ramifications of Iranian hegemony in the region?  (I don't think they have the resources to pull it off, but it is a geopolitical question.)
 
Iran has understood that since the oil age, from about 1900, she holds a very central geographic position in the locus of oil (and now all hydrocarbon resources). Britain, the USSR and the US have interfered, intervened and operated clandestinely for their own interests at least since the first World War.  Iran/Persia, as a more minor power, has had to put up with it.
 
What are the issues of Iranian influence and/or control over the vast energy resources of the region?  How could other state interests allow that, and in whose interests would such a situation be?
 
Play nice, please.


Posted By: Kevin
Date Posted: 07-Jul-2008 at 17:21
Originally posted by pikeshot1600

Originally posted by Vorian

Originally posted by pikeshot1600

Kevin:
 

Don't look for Iran to give any nukes to Sunni Moslem states.  Wink

 

 
Iran is Persian. Arabs don't really like them. Are there any other Siite states ecxept Iran and Iraq?

 

Iran is about half Persian, but it is a good point that Iran is mostly non-Arab.  Historically, relations between Persians and Arabs have not been good.  Arabs are concerned with the possibility of Iran's hegemony in the Gulf and in the region.  This is a geopolitical weakness in Iran's position as they remain isolated and viewed with suspicion by nearly all of their neighbors, and on almost all flanks.

 

As far as nukes are concerned, it matters not if Mullah Iran or non-Mullah Iran has nuclear capability, either is bad for the West as well as for regional powers.

 

 


When I said other entites I was meaning some group like Hezbollah.

I know the Iranians are nor going to give a bomb to an Arab state except maybe Syria.


Posted By: Al Jassas
Date Posted: 07-Jul-2008 at 21:26
Hello to you all
 
Well it depends on so many things that no body can be quite certain. Israel cannot and will not go on it alone and even if there is an agreement between Iran and the EU Israel will still contemplate a strike no matter what.
 
One thing for sure is that Israel wants the whole world to stand by it for support and guarantee that it will not be left alone, that is if the strike fails, and most likely will have a limited success, the world will go to war against Iran if it retaliates. That is a very hard thing to guarantee since it is a declaration of war period. Iran will retaliate and the Israelis are also genuinly afraid of it severity and effects of its already not so good economy.The international courting of Syria is not so strange after all, the call for the scrap of the Harriri government, the gloomy silence about the hizbs coup in Lebanon and inviting the enemy Bashar to France's highest honour, the Bastilles day, are all indications of a coming strike.
 
The window for a strike is closing fast, by October, the possibily will deminish greatly for climatic reasons, the start of the rainy season and high winds. By November fog, rain and snow storms. Another chance will not come till next April. So the next few weeks should be very decisive and hope to God that nothing serious happens because there is nothing good that comes from war.
 
Al-Jassas


Posted By: Kevin
Date Posted: 07-Jul-2008 at 22:02
Originally posted by Al Jassas

Hello to you all
 

Well it depends on so many things that no body can be quite certain. Israel cannot and will not go on it alone and even if there is an agreement between Iran and the EU Israel will still contemplate a strike no matter what.

 

One thing for sure is that Israel wants the whole world to stand by it for support and guarantee that it will not be left alone, that is if the strike fails, and most likely will have a limited success, the world will go to war against Iran if it retaliates. That is a very hard thing to guarantee since it is a declaration of war period. Iran will retaliate and the Israelis are also genuinly afraid of it severity and effects of its already not so good economy.The international courting of Syria is not so strange after all, the call for the scrap of the Harriri government, the gloomy silence about the hizbs coup in Lebanon and inviting the enemy Bashar to France's highest honour, the Bastilles day, are all indications of a coming strike.

 

The window for a strike is closing fast, by October, the possibily will deminish greatly for climatic reasons, the start of the rainy season and high winds. By November fog, rain and snow storms. Another chance will not come till next April. So the next few weeks should be very decisive and hope to God that nothing serious happens because there is nothing good that comes from war.

 

Al-Jassas


Al-Jassas since you live in the region, Do you personally feel a strike is coming?   


Posted By: Al Jassas
Date Posted: 07-Jul-2008 at 23:25
Well my relatives who serve in the military and/or intelligence haven't given an indication  to the thought that there is a heightened military. They, especially the guys in the special forces, their vacations or are planning to go on vacation and no one bothered them. However there is certain pessimism about the events, any closure of the gulf will mean war and I was told that there is a lot of tension right now in the intelligence community between those who advocate more agressive action and those who still believe that nothing emminent is going to happen. There were some military excercises recently that were called "routine" but I don't think so, the RSAF conducted two excercises this year maybe even three, more than usual and with countries bordering or at enmity with Iran (Pakistan, US and UAE). some days ago there was a confrontation, which is still ongoing, with the Iranian navy and I have'nt asked lately on what happened since.
 
Al-Jassas


Posted By: Omar al Hashim
Date Posted: 08-Jul-2008 at 00:15
Originally posted by Leo

Syria is run by an alawi regime but im not sure that really counts.

Syria is vocally secular if that means anything.
Originally posted by Kevin


When I said other entites I was meaning some group like Hezbollah.

I know the Iranians are nor going to give a bomb to an Arab state except maybe Syria.

Iran isn't going to be given nukes to anyone if they even get them. At most offically condemned engineers may give a few hints away.
Don't forget that no-one, including Iran and Hezbullah, has any motivation ever to nuke Israel even if they had the capability.

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Posted By: rider
Date Posted: 09-Jul-2008 at 12:16
Originally posted by pikeshot1600

Originally posted by rider

The fact that Israeli Military is well trained, doesn't mean that they will win or even, succeed. If they launch their missiles, then Iran will do the same, and I have a feeling that Iran has more of them... (Both have intercontinental ballistic missile weaponry, right?)

Anyways, the only Israeli to do so, would most likely be a very old, bearded General that's insane. 

 
AFAIK, neither has intercontinental capability.  However, that technology is not so mysterious any longer, so it could be likely that they will aquire it before too long.  Their missile technology is intermediate in range; who knows about the sophistication of the guidance systems, and who knows about their multi-target capability?  They are not talking.
 
 

There aren't any US spies in Iran's Military Intelligence? I'd be surprised if it was so. 



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Posted By: Leonidas
Date Posted: 09-Jul-2008 at 15:49
their network was rolled. My quoted article mentions this, but i have heard before.

iran is not easy to penetrate


Posted By: rider
Date Posted: 11-Jul-2008 at 15:57
See, Iran can strike at Isreal.. 

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Posted By: Suren
Date Posted: 11-Jul-2008 at 19:32
The whole thing is a psychological war. even if Iran have had nukes, it won't use them against Israel, because Israel can easily strike back. Having nukes for Iran is just a prestige and guarantee so no body can attack their country and having upper hand in regional debates. I am sure Iran will cut off her financial support to many suspicious groups in the region after they got the nukes, because Iran doesn't need them anymore. 


Posted By: Zagros
Date Posted: 11-Jul-2008 at 19:44
I find the whole concept of Israel striking Iran ludicrous.   They pounded Hezbollah which just across its northern border with everything conventional they had - so much so that they had ordered America to send more munitions - and the result was hardly noteworthy.  What will 2 or even 200 Israeli bombers achieve against Iran? It will just show Israel up and reaffirm its global status as an illegitimate bully state.

And this is to mention nothing of Iran's response.   What would 100 Shahabs do to Tel Aviv? Israel is impotent.


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Posted By: Zagros
Date Posted: 11-Jul-2008 at 19:58
Originally posted by pikeshot1600

Originally posted by Vorian

Originally posted by pikeshot1600

Kevin:
 
Don't look for Iran to give any nukes to Sunni Moslem states.  Wink
 
 


Iran is Persian. Arabs don't really like them. Are there any other Siite states ecxept Iran and Iraq?
 
Iran is about half Persian, but it is a good point that Iran is mostly non-Arab.  Historically, relations between Persians and Arabs have not been good.  Arabs are concerned with the possibility of Iran's hegemony in the Gulf and in the region.  This is a geopolitical weakness in Iran's position as they remain isolated and viewed with suspicion by nearly all of their neighbors, and on almost all flanks.
 
As far as nukes are concerned, it matters not if Mullah Iran or non-Mullah Iran has nuclear capability, either is bad for the West as well as for regional powers.
 


Well when America pulls out it's something they may have to accept or just shape up because the current Arab states have absolutely no industrial/economic depth and no intellectual tradition.  Iraq had the potential and look what happened to it.  The fact that Iran has potential for these is what makes it a threat to Western hegemony, the matter of management incompetence and corruption is surmountable and is being addressed.  Imagine if all of the Arabs took a leaf from Iran's defiance and determination - in fact it's something to which most Arab commoners aspire, the only thing holding them back is their leaders whose dynasties are themselves anointed by the West (pun intended).

In due course, the will of the people for self determination will prevail over the foreign exploiters.  Perhaps sooner rather than later.


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Posted By: Zagros
Date Posted: 11-Jul-2008 at 20:01
Originally posted by Al Jassas

Hello to you all
 
The window for a strike is closing fast, by October, the possibily will deminish greatly for climatic reasons, the start of the rainy season and high winds. By November fog, rain and snow storms. Another chance will not come till next April. So the next few weeks should be very decisive and hope to God that nothing serious happens because there is nothing good that comes from war.
 
Al-Jassas


A serious strike is only possible in the spring. 


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Posted By: Zagros
Date Posted: 11-Jul-2008 at 20:03
Originally posted by rider

Originally posted by pikeshot1600

Originally posted by rider

The fact that Israeli Military is well trained, doesn't mean that they will win or even, succeed. If they launch their missiles, then Iran will do the same, and I have a feeling that Iran has more of them... (Both have intercontinental ballistic missile weaponry, right?)

Anyways, the only Israeli to do so, would most likely be a very old, bearded General that's insane. 

 
AFAIK, neither has intercontinental capability.  However, that technology is not so mysterious any longer, so it could be likely that they will aquire it before too long.  Their missile technology is intermediate in range; who knows about the sophistication of the guidance systems, and who knows about their multi-target capability?  They are not talking.
 
 

There aren't any US spies in Iran's Military Intelligence? I'd be surprised if it was so. 



No that is why they resort to kidnapping Iranian officers.


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Posted By: Zagros
Date Posted: 11-Jul-2008 at 20:28
Originally posted by Al Jassas

Well my relatives who serve in the military and/or intelligence haven't given an indication  to the thought that there is a heightened military. They, especially the guys in the special forces, their vacations or are planning to go on vacation and no one bothered them. However there is certain pessimism about the events, any closure of the gulf will mean war and I was told that there is a lot of tension right now in the intelligence community between those who advocate more agressive action and those who still believe that nothing emminent is going to happen. There were some military excercises recently that were called "routine" but I don't think so, the RSAF conducted two excercises this year maybe even three, more than usual and with countries bordering or at enmity with Iran (Pakistan, US and UAE). some days ago there was a confrontation, which is still ongoing, with the Iranian navy and I have'nt asked lately on what happened since.
 
Al-Jassas


Was that confrontation when a Saudi fishing boat full of Indian nationals was intercepted in Iranian waters near Ostan e Khalij e Fars (Bushehr)?


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Posted By: Al Jassas
Date Posted: 11-Jul-2008 at 21:51
Hello Zagros
 
Well Iranian boats go freely and fish in Arab gulf states waters (my cousin is in the navy and based over in the gulf and he said as long they are on the borders no intervention is called for) and vice versa, it is a well known fact and Iran never protested or made a fuss unless it wants to send a political message, like the time they held Qatari boats during the insane and childish fuss they started about naming the gulf a couple of years ago. This arrest is nothing more than that, a political message.
 
As for Arab states lacking industrial infrastructure and "intellectual depth", you really need to update you info. Industry in the Arab world is as advanced, and in many areas even more advanced, as that of Iran but unlike it, it is concentrated towards developement not armament that is why on average Arab economies are much more stronger than the Iranian and the economies much more healthier.
 
Al-Jassas


Posted By: Suren
Date Posted: 12-Jul-2008 at 01:26
Arab countries except Egypt depend on their oil production, without it they have nothing. They are rich and have luxury houses because of oil. You take that oil then what you have? almost nothing. If you are proud of trading centers, all of them will disappear in a blink of an eye without oil and money. This is a fact that most of the modern middle eastern countries are consumers not producers. Then one day there is no oil, no money, consequently, there is no friend and attention. This fancy life in gulf states is a dream which will end by loss of oil, it is necessary for you guys to expend this money for industrial infrastructure and education to secure your countries future.


Posted By: Zagros
Date Posted: 12-Jul-2008 at 02:54
Hello AJ -

Originally posted by Al Jassas

Hello Zagros
 
Well Iranian boats go freely and fish in Arab gulf states waters (my cousin is in the navy and based over in the gulf and he said as long they are on the borders no intervention is called for) and vice versa, it is a well known fact and Iran never protested or made a fuss unless it wants to send a political message, like the time they held Qatari boats during the insane and childish fuss they started about naming the gulf a couple of years ago. This arrest is nothing more than that, a political message.


That's irrelevant. I find it funny because it was a SAUDI fishing boat and everyone aboard was Indian.  I think perhaps the fact that they were near to the Bushehr reactor resulted in their arrest which you are right, sends a message: stay away from our sensitive sites.

As for Arab states lacking industrial infrastructure and "intellectual depth", you really need to update you info. Industry in the Arab world is as advanced, and in many areas even more advanced, as that of Iran but unlike it, it is concentrated towards developement not armament that is why on average Arab economies are much more stronger than the Iranian and the economies much more healthier.
 
Al-Jassas


So what does the Arab world produce and develop?  Its own arms? Its own industrial metals? Its own cars and trucks? its own utility and electronic? its own textiles? its own bicycles? its own agricultural equipment? much of its own medical supplies? its own semi-conductors? its own precision equipment? How advanced are the Arabs in medical research? Can you extract your own oil? Iran is at the forefront of stem cell research.  Iranian scientists are almost always in the top five on international olympiad competitions in physics, maths, chemistry, robotics, etc. These scientists are spawned from a rich scientific and academic tradition with bases in technically brilliant universities such as tehran sharrif and tabriz universities. 

And on top of this Iran is subject to economic sanctions unlike any other country in the region and possibly worldwide except Myanmar.  you probably shudder to think how prosperous iran would be without them. Don't discount armaments because the defense industry has in many cases proven to be a source for civilian product innovation, such as aircraft (Iran now produces civilian aricraft).  They say 60% of iran's exports today are from oil and they're right, but consider that in 1998 when oil was $10/b it was a similar ratio, whether you like it or not that is real development.

You have oil which you sell to the west and the money you earn is spent either investing in the west or buying western goods at inflated prices (such as yaughts and armaments obsolete in the West which are just sold at infalted prices to recoup the R&D spend by western companies)... Is that development?  the only Arab academics I have ever been taught by or cited have either been Egyptian, Lebanese, Syrian or Iraqi none of these countries except one is a major oil exporter, why is that?  I have often heard other Arabs complain about "khalijis" as lazy and arrogant but there must be more to it than that.  I think it's as Azimuth said before:  Khalij countries are culturally and physically very young and have not had time to develop such a mentality. And the trap that you're in now will mean that it will be a very slow process.


 


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Posted By: Omar al Hashim
Date Posted: 12-Jul-2008 at 03:05
Originally posted by Zagros

I find the whole concept of Israel striking Iran ludicrous.   They pounded Hezbollah which just across its northern border with everything conventional they had - so much so that they had ordered America to send more munitions - and the result was hardly noteworthy.  What will 2 or even 200 Israeli bombers achieve against Iran? It will just show Israel up and reaffirm its global status as an illegitimate bully state.

And this is to mention nothing of Iran's response.   What would 100 Shahabs do to Tel Aviv? Israel is impotent.

Even more to the point, image the damage Iran could do to Israel if it didn't shoot back.
Israel bombs Iran, and Iran holds its temper and refuses to shoot back - even though even one knows they can. Propaganda coup.


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Posted By: Leonidas
Date Posted: 12-Jul-2008 at 04:27
Originally posted by Omar al Hashim

Even more to the point, image the damage Iran could do to Israel if it didn't shoot back.
Israel bombs Iran, and Iran holds its temper and refuses to shoot back - even though even one knows they can. Propaganda coup.
agreed and that's would be my preferred tact,  But they would look weak at home and they cant afford that. Its a balancing act, but both sides pander to their domestic audiences more so than the foreign media.

Originally posted by Zagros

And this is to mention nothing of Iran's response.   What would 100 Shahabs do to Tel Aviv? Israel is impotent
they would pepper it with some physical damage and cause a psychological imprint much like Saddam's Scuds on bigger scale,  nothing else. I'm sure they would hit its military targets before Tel Aviv, the nuke plant being target number one. Those targets will hurt more than hitting their cities. i don't understand why hitting Israeli cities with scuds on steroids is seen as effective. Israel can nuke every city in the region and is getting better at defending against these things as time rolls on. Its like a college boy slapping a heavy weight boxer, just to show they aren't scared and they have reach. Its only makes a point, but doesn't win the fight. Its not going to cower Israel. Hezbollah is much more effective than these Shahabs.

 The greater number of short/medium range missiles they have, used against US interest in the gulf and Afghanistan would have more of a materiel impact in any future conflict than a limited attack on Tel Aviv. Such things just rally the population for war. It didn't help either Iraq or Iran when they were lobbing scuds at each others cities, victory is secured on the battlefield.


Posted By: Zagros
Date Posted: 12-Jul-2008 at 12:12
Originally posted by Omar al Hashim

Originally posted by Zagros

I find the whole concept of Israel striking Iran ludicrous.   They pounded Hezbollah which just across its northern border with everything conventional they had - so much so that they had ordered America to send more munitions - and the result was hardly noteworthy.  What will 2 or even 200 Israeli bombers achieve against Iran? It will just show Israel up and reaffirm its global status as an illegitimate bully state.

And this is to mention nothing of Iran's response.   What would 100 Shahabs do to Tel Aviv? Israel is impotent.

Even more to the point, image the damage Iran could do to Israel if it didn't shoot back.
Israel bombs Iran, and Iran holds its temper and refuses to shoot back - even though even one knows they can. Propaganda coup.


The Syrians did that, what good did it do for them? they just looked like weak idiots.


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Posted By: Zagros
Date Posted: 12-Jul-2008 at 12:27
they would pepper it with some physical damage and cause a psychological imprint much like Saddam's Scuds on bigger scale,  nothing else.


Nothing else? Like not destroy Israel's fragile economy and exponentially increase its emigration problem?

I'm sure they would hit its military targets before Tel Aviv, the nuke plant being target number one. Those targets will hurt more than hitting their cities. i don't understand why hitting Israeli cities with scuds on steroids is seen as effective.


It would ruin Israel's economy.  And is a good deterrent. Of course Dimona would be hit too, probably by Hezbollah and assets in Syria.  Attacking Tel-Avivl has a good deterrent effect which is the main thing - Hezb threatened it and managed to limit Israel's area of aggression .  I am sure no one except certain factions in the American and Israeli govts. want to attack Iran since long before the nuclear excuse and ahmadinejad came along "everyone wanted to go to Baghdad but real men wanted to go to Tehran".

War for Iran regardless of the outcome would disastrous.  It seems that the above factions still have considerable sway, consider that Omelette told Rice to impose a naval blockade on Iran last year (or earlier this year and a bill for such a thing is being processed in Congress, that is a declaration of war under international law.  Israel is impotent that is why it uses America for its ends via its Neo-Con proxies and American lobbies.  If Israel had any chance of success against Iran it would have taken it.

Israel can nuke every city in the region and is getting better at defending against these things as time rolls on. Its like a college boy slapping a heavy weight boxer, just to show they aren't scared and they have reach. Its only makes a point, but doesn't win the fight. Its not going to cower Israel. Hezbollah is much more effective than these Shahabs.


Does Israel have nukes? 200 of them? Everyone assumes so.  All we have is the word of an Israeli defector: Mossad's maxim is "to win wars by way of deception".   Israel wouldn't be attacked to prove reach, it would be attacked in self defense by the means possible.


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Posted By: Al Jassas
Date Posted: 12-Jul-2008 at 15:09

Hello to you all

Well the claim that all Arab countries have oil and rich is proof that you realy know nothing about the Arab world. Apart from Gulf states all Arab countries import oil from outside or barely have oil to suffice them from importing it. But one thing Arab countries have that Iran doesn't, they all import raw oil and then refine on their own by refinaries built by themselves. Iran on the other hand though the worlds second producer of Oil still imports at least 60% of its refined oil products like processed gas, Diesel and gasoline. In my opinion for a rich country like Iran, this is a catastrophe and no matter how much weapons Iran produces it won't keep this vital fact away from its enemies. On strike on Kharaj Island and Khor Abdallah (currently named Bandare Khomaini) will literally bring refined products production to a halt. Anyway, I strongly recomend to both of you suren and Zagros to read about Arab countries and how advanced their industrial capacity is despite the lack of oil.

Returning to the subject at hand, the Hizb is the last thing on Israel's mind right now, its potential effects on the struggle is nothing. The key for the hizb's success is Syria and Syria now courted by the world and sacrificing Maghniyah on the alter of negotiations with Israel will not be dragged into a war with Israel that it and only it will suffer, as you know Syria is next door and Iran is 1500 km away. Already we know that Syria was angry with the Hizb for starting the 2006 war and it was Syria which forced the Hizb to stop not Iran. There are 20k UN forces between the Hizb and effective launching range against Israeli bases and unlike the 2006 war which came as a total surprise to the Israeli army, which was given a short notice for operation (less than 24 hours), this time Israel will invade Lebanon with full fury and will crush the Hizb with the support of Sunnis, Druz and many christians. Syria will talk talk but will do absolutely nothing to save the Hizb. This will make hizb officials and their masters in Tehran think twice, is losing Lebanon worth it (by making the Hizb attack Israel and force an invasion)? if it is even Iran will abandon the Hizb because by the time everything cooled down, the Hizbs place in internatinal strategy will be nill.
 
Al-Jassas


Posted By: Zagros
Date Posted: 12-Jul-2008 at 15:37
Iran on the other hand though the worlds second producer of Oil still imports at least 60% of its refined oil products like processed gas, Diesel and gasoline. In my opinion for a rich country like Iran, this is a catastrophe and no matter how much weapons Iran produces it won't keep this vital fact away from its enemies. On strike on Kharaj Island and Khor Abdallah (currently named Bandare Khomaini) will literally bring refined products production to a halt. Anyway, I strongly recomend to both of you suren and Zagros to read about Arab countries and how advanced their industrial capacity is despite the lack of oil.


The figure is 40% and it is due to insufficient refining capacity which until recently Iran has not had the technology to improve due to sanctions - The govt. claims that by 2012 there will be enough capacity to become a net exporter of gasoline.

I did not i claim all Arab countries have oil. I actually made a clear distinction ebtween those which do and those which don't.  Some anecdotal evidence from you on Arab industry would suffice.

Fars news agency just reported that the us has agreed to unconditional negotiations with Iran.  - If this is true it is a major diplomatic coup for Iran given the pressure it has sustained for conditional talks.


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Posted By: Al Jassas
Date Posted: 12-Jul-2008 at 18:43
Hello Zagros
 
I hope this link will help you:
 
http://www.aoi.com.eg/aoi_eng/index.htm - http://www.aoi.com.eg/aoi_eng/index.htm
 
AL-Jassas
 
 


Posted By: Zagros
Date Posted: 12-Jul-2008 at 19:36
Sorry AJ, it's not much help at all.  Nothing works, all it has are a few sound-bites on a homepage.  Can you elaborate on industry in the Peninsula (Khalij Arab countries)?  Because they are the ones I refer to.  What do they manufacture, export etc other than oil?


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Posted By: Al Jassas
Date Posted: 12-Jul-2008 at 20:15
Hello Zagros
 
Well in essense, the site gives an idea about the government run comapny. It produces training planes for the air force, several planes by license from western and Russian companies and several kinds of Tanks. Syria also produces its own kind of tanks in addition to the T series Russian tanks by license. As for Gulf Arab states, well, since (except Saudi Arabia) their entire population combined is smaller than a typical suberb in Shiraz, they by weapons to frighten their own people and hire america for their defense. In Saudi Arabia there is a good military industry going on. Most of the small and medium arms used by the military is nationally made. A private company, Al-Faris, builds two types of AFV's (by license from a french company I think) and the Advanced Electronics company is responsible for building anything from Radar and Sonar equipment to electronic boards for F-15s, which the planes comes without.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Fahd_Infantry_fighting_vehicle - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Fahd_Infantry_fighting_vehicle
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Faris_8-400 - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Faris_8-400
 
Al-Jassas


Posted By: Zagros
Date Posted: 12-Jul-2008 at 20:37
Thank you but it still illustrates my point of industrial/economic depth.  Isn't Saudi's population 20 million? 

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Posted By: Al Jassas
Date Posted: 12-Jul-2008 at 23:13
75% of them are below 25 years old. Unlike Iran, there is a serious shortage in grey matter and many places in the country need to be filled before even the country goes to mass industrialization. Iran has been there before Saudi Arabia for a much longer time (the oldest Uni is just 50 years old and its engineering department is 40 years old) and it has a huge amount of educated people as well as a very high number of technical unis and institutes that were build long ago. In 20 years time Saudi Arabia may well exceed Iran but this depends on what the government policy is going to be.
 
Al-Jassas


Posted By: Leonidas
Date Posted: 13-Jul-2008 at 05:33
Originally posted by Zagros

they would pepper it with some physical damage and cause a psychological imprint much like Saddam's Scuds on bigger scale,  nothing else.


Nothing else? Like not destroy Israel's fragile economy and exponentially increase its emigration problem?
that can happen anyway via the Hezb or Palistinian proxies, No-Gong's just add salt to the wounds. Isreal is still connected to the western world and can be supported via other financial means while the war is on. Outside the reach of these missiles. Economic leverage comes from controling/spoiling the Straights of Hormuz not peppering Tel Aviv

  Unless these missiles can be very accurate and relaible, and pointed by precise and informed intelligence, they have little military value. Politically they make the mullahs look strong to their domestic audiance but this is an expensive and wasteful a way to do this. Without nukes they are nothing more. I never considered their use effective in other wars, they have never been critical in any victory and I cant see Iran doing it better. Hezbollah can be much more cost and operationaly effective.

Originally posted by Zagros

Does Israel have nukes? 200 of them? Everyone assumes so.  All we have is the word of an Israeli defector: Mossad's maxim is "to win wars by way of deception".   Israel wouldn't be attacked to prove reach, it would be attacked in self defense by the means possible.
well who wants to roll that dice? if they have nukes (even 20), you and i know that civilian deaths would not inhibit their use. They are quite comfortable in bludgeoning their opponents into oblivion. In their minds every war must be won at all cost, or they will be extinct as a nation. So it would be the right thing to do, completely rationalized in their reality and very dangerous for everyone else.


Posted By: Zagros
Date Posted: 13-Jul-2008 at 13:04
Rolling dice = Follow your own legal nuclear agenda and wait to see if some rat-bag state nukes you?  Even if ISrael uses a nuke or ten, it would mean the end of its own existence because one, two, three or any number of years down the road there would be retaliation in like.  Like Mullahs, although Israeli decision makers are horrible evil people, they are still people and people are rational.  They won't do anything they think they can't get away with.

Shahabs are supposedly very accurate, they would do well in targeting power plants, water treatment facilities, other utilities, airports, ports, government buildings, schools, kindergartens, hospitals, old people's homes - the usual.  Israel is smaller than Iran's smallest province.


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Posted By: Hebrewtext
Date Posted: 14-Jul-2008 at 11:19
Originally posted by Leonidas


Originally posted by Zagros

And this is to mention nothing of Iran's response.   What would 100 Shahabs do to Tel Aviv? Israel is impotent
they would pepper it with some physical damage and cause a psychological imprint much like Saddam's Scuds on bigger scale,  nothing else. I'm sure they would hit its military targets before Tel Aviv, the nuke plant being target number one. Those targets will hurt more than hitting their cities. i don't understand why hitting Israeli cities with scuds on steroids is seen as effective. Israel can nuke every city in the region and is getting better at defending against these things as time rolls on. Its like a college boy slapping a heavy weight boxer, just to show they aren't scared and they have reach. Its only makes a point, but doesn't win the fight. Its not going to cower Israel. Hezbollah is much more effective than these Shahabs.

 The greater number of short/medium range missiles they have, used against US interest in the gulf and Afghanistan would have more of a materiel impact in any future conflict than a limited attack on Tel Aviv. Such things just rally the population for war. It didn't help either Iraq or Iran when they were lobbing scuds at each others cities, victory is secured on the battlefield.
 
exactly
Iran has some 100 shihab 3 missiles , and 12 launchers that are able to reach Israel,
some 40+ Iraqi missiles heat Israeli cities in 91 cousing only one death...
 
the real problem for Israel are the Iranian backed Hizbullah capable to lounch thousends of rockets into north Israel , cousing perhaps hundreads of deaths.
and for the American bases ,intrestes and the Gulf states in range for thousends of Iranian missiles.


Posted By: rider
Date Posted: 14-Jul-2008 at 13:31
The number of deaths caused by a missile come from the amount of explosives that are in the warhead, not so much of it's accuracy. 

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Posted By: Zagros
Date Posted: 15-Jul-2008 at 00:13
Iraqi scuds were easy targets for Patriots, I don't think Shahabs are (since the development of three or four versions of "arrow" defense missiles has been necessary) - Shahabs can be guided by GPS (or the Russian equivalent) or gyroscopics, so the accuracy is beyond that of just hitting a large target such as a city.  Plus Shahabs can pack one ton of high explosives.

In other news, I read an article in which the US apparently confirmed Russian sale of S-400s due for delivery later this year, though nothing has come from the Russian or Iranian side.


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Posted By: Bankotsu
Date Posted: 15-Jul-2008 at 08:14
Lindsey Williams has interesting views on USA policy towards Iran:

Lindsey Williams - The Energy Non-Crisis - Part 7 of 8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5HGHsy3H_0&mode=related&search= - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5HGHsy3H

http://peswiki.com/index.php/Site:LRP:The_Energy_Non-Crisis - http://peswiki.com/index.php/Site:LRP


Posted By: Kevin
Date Posted: 16-Jul-2008 at 01:15
Originally posted by rider

The number of deaths caused by a missile come from the amount of explosives that are in the warhead, not so much of it's accuracy. 


True in some ways but remember during the first Gulf War one of the reason's Saddam's Scuds didn't have the effect they were intended to have was the fact that their poor systems in terms of accuracy hence pretty much made them ineffective weapons.

So accuracy does play a big part in contributing to deaths when deploying these weapons.  


Posted By: Leonidas
Date Posted: 16-Jul-2008 at 04:22
^ actaully accuracy has more to do with militray effect > meaningful targets. Killing civilians will always be hits and miss, especially in isreal where they bunker up and have some warning time.
 
Iraqi scuds were easy targets for Patriots
conversly these were adhoc defenses, those type of patroits where never effective


Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: 16-Jul-2008 at 04:31
Iraqi scuds were easy targets for Patriots
 
Originally posted by Leonidas

conversly these were adhoc defenses, those type of patroits where never effective
 
Indeed, they were extremely ineffective during the Gulf War despite the praise they received from the popular media at the time.
 
As much as I hate to use Wikipedia as a source, here's what it says:
 
The U.S. Army claimed an initial success rate of 80% in Saudi Arabia and 50% in Israel. Those claims were eventually scaled back to 70% and 40%. However, when President http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_H._W._Bush - George H. W. Bush traveled to Raytheon's Patriot manufacturing plant in Andover, Massachusetts during the Gulf War, he declared, the "Patriot is 41 for 42: 42 Scuds engaged, 41 intercepted!" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIM-104_Patriot#cite_note-7 - [8] The President's claimed success rate was thus over 97% during the war.
 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIM-104_Patriot#Success_rate_vs._accuracy - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIM-104_Patriot#Success_rate_vs._accuracy


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Posted By: Zagros
Date Posted: 16-Jul-2008 at 17:37
My point is therefore emphasised.I just remember images of them being shot down on TV.  Good ol' propaganda, children are so impressionable.


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Posted By: Cryptic
Date Posted: 16-Jul-2008 at 19:55
Originally posted by Zagros

Thank you but it still illustrates my point of industrial/economic depth.  Isn't Saudi's population 20 million? 
Nobody knows for sure.  The total population of the Kingdom and the number of actual  Saudi Citizens are state secrets.


Posted By: Omar al Hashim
Date Posted: 17-Jul-2008 at 08:53
Shahabs can be guided by GPS (or the Russian equivalent) or gyroscopics, so the accuracy is beyond that of just hitting a large target such as a city.

Most of the satellites on the Russian system have broken down by down, effective coverage is reduced to only over Russia herself, and I wouldn't count on its reliability. In any case, you can't really guide a missile by GPS. It simply isn't accurate enough, at best you could get to within the right 10 meters, but given the speed the missiles are travelling at it would probably be more like 50m - which could easily be the difference between a munitions dump and a sports oval.
Unless you can get access to military grade GPS (which me, you, or Iran can't, because the US army doesn't let anyone) it won't be very effective at guiding missiles without other systems as well.
(Better than nothing though)
Originally posted by Cryptic


Nobody knows for sure.  The total population of the Kingdom and the number of actual  Saudi Citizens are state secrets.

A figure so secretive it is published by the Saudi government in order to keep those gharbiyya from knowing the truth!
About 23 million.
Including foriegners 28,161,417 in July 2008


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Posted By: rider
Date Posted: 17-Jul-2008 at 11:06
So it's all about the spae programme... However, why can't they just check coordinates from, say Google Earth, programme the rocket to fly there, and it will? The missile can't be so... useless that it would miss then? At least by a ton?

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Posted By: Omar al Hashim
Date Posted: 17-Jul-2008 at 12:26
The problem is how the missile figures out where it is, by the time GPS figures out (approximately*) where it is, it isn't there any more. You can easily teach it where the target is.

It is a problem with all robots, and exactly why the civilian GPS signal the US provides is less accurate than the military signal. Because they don't want enemy missiles using American technology to figure out where they are, and being using in guidance systems.

*10-50m for civilian grade IIRC


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Posted By: Leonidas
Date Posted: 17-Jul-2008 at 12:26
Originally posted by Omar al Hashim

Shahabs can be guided by GPS (or the Russian equivalent) or gyroscopics, so the accuracy is beyond that of just hitting a large target such as a city.

Most of the satellites on the Russian system have broken down by down, effective coverage is reduced to only over Russia herself, and I wouldn't count on its reliability. In any case, you can't really guide a missile by GPS. It simply isn't accurate enough, at best you could get to within the right 10 meters, but given the speed the missiles are travelling at it would probably be more like 50m - which could easily be the difference between a munitions dump and a sports oval.
Unless you can get access to military grade GPS (which me, you, or Iran can't, because the US army doesn't let anyone) it won't be very effective at guiding missiles without other systems as well.
The guidance systems are one of the key unknowns. The GPS is one way, AFAIK the gyro's are another way. They have both so GPS is not critical. The accuracy will come down to how good their gyro technology is.

also it isnt russian technology but Chinese/North korean. The chineses were busted trying to get laser gyro's off the US via a front company (IIRC the company claimed it was for their trainsSmile) . That was when Clinton was way too open and freindly. So if they get that type of technology and i have read the Iranians may already have it, the accuray will be very good. But 50M CEP is pretty good and I would conservitaly guess they are at level(if they dont have the latest gyro's). Iranians dont fire oneor two of these things anyway, so expect a salvo for one target and they dont care if some miss and hit a sports oval aslong as enough hit the target. I am assuming they wont waste them on randoms city shots, but hit the high value targets.


Posted By: Omar al Hashim
Date Posted: 17-Jul-2008 at 13:11
Gyros are subject to drift error - you only get a few meters before the result is meaningless - but I know it is possible to use a combination of civilian grade GPS and gyros to position slow moving objects at least (In fact this is how my supervisor is controlling his robot-helicopter). I don't know how accurate this would be on a fast moving object where the drift error would accumulate much faster, but if the blast radius is big enough and you fire them in a salvo they might be accurate enough.

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Posted By: Leonidas
Date Posted: 17-Jul-2008 at 14:14
GPS can be used to overcome drift it seems. civilian GPS is the golden question, and in combination with what Iran has. The question the US and Israel would want to know;  do they have laser Gyro's ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ring_laser_gyroscope - - PDF pg 33. I also did a Google search on RLG + drifting and there are patents in the US that try to overcome it. why is that stuff public.

The other claim made which would be good to know; can they build and deploy a maneuvering warhead, the Arrow2 should be able to handle a few of these if they have a linear trajectory. I would also think the salvo method as a way of saturating and over coming the defences as well as the inherent inaccuracy.


Posted By: Al Jassas
Date Posted: 17-Jul-2008 at 15:19
The Germans send accurate V2 missiles without GPS or other high tech equipment. Building a rocket is one thing but directing it is a very different story. One can get a high levels of accuracy without resourting to high tech equipment, those equipment can be later used to pinpoint the target and maximise the accuracy. It is all about engineering and if you have good engineers, then you can design indestructable rockets with potent accuracy.
 
AL-Jassas


Posted By: Peteratwar
Date Posted: 17-Jul-2008 at 15:21
Originally posted by Al Jassas

The Germans send accurate V2 missiles without GPS or other high tech equipment. Building a rocket is one thing but directing it is a very different story. One can get a high levels of accuracy without resourting to high tech equipment, those equipment can be later used to pinpoint the target and maximise the accuracy. It is all about engineering and if you have good engineers, then you can design indestructable rockets with potent accuracy.
 
AL-Jassas
 
The V2 rocket was highly inaccurate.
 
Nothing is indestructible


Posted By: Al Jassas
Date Posted: 17-Jul-2008 at 15:28
For WWII technology, it was pretty darn accurate especially the final rockets that fell on London. Remember, Germany had no people on the ground to send coordinates, developement was the last thing on their mind, since the target was civilians, accuracy wasn't top priority. However, scientist did make an excelent job with the resources they had and quite succeeded in them.
http://www.v2rocket.com/start/deployment/mobileoperations.html - http://www.v2rocket.com/start/deployment/mobileoperations.html
 
AL-Jassas


Posted By: Peteratwar
Date Posted: 17-Jul-2008 at 15:38
Hitting London from their launch sites would be a marvellous easy target to aim at
 
Hitting by design any smaller element inside London e.g. docks was not easy. So no they weren't particularly accurate.
 
However, I grant the technology wasn't available to make them more so.


Posted By: Zagros
Date Posted: 17-Jul-2008 at 18:42
From what i remember reading a couple of years ago the I-ranians have developed a system which can flip between Ruskie and Yanky sat systems and also incorporates gyroscopics.

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Posted By: eaglecap
Date Posted: 17-Jul-2008 at 19:21
Originally posted by rider

Bush would certainly love to leave another war for his successors to solve. 

But, wouldn't the truth be that Iran will have counterstruck before the Israeli missiles land? So, we'd have a nuclear war that would decimate the entire Near East... 



This is something I should keep up on but I agree with this but what is Israel to do? She is surrounded by enemies and it is basically survival but I really wish it could be resolved without violence. Sadly, with current events I do not see that. All the innocent people who will die on both sides is very bleak but it is not if it happens but when. Russia has treaties with Iran so I wonder if the Bear will be pulled or hooked in by obligation???

I saw something about the creation of a union between Europe, North Africa and the Middle East and they believe this could bring peace to the region. I am on a lap top that is a pain to bring things up on so if you want I can post the link for that article when I get to a better computer.

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Λοιπόν, αδελφοί και οι συμπολίτες και οι στρατιώτες, να θυμάστε αυτό ώστε μνημόσυνο σας, φήμη και ελευθερία σας θα ε


Posted By: Seko
Date Posted: 17-Jul-2008 at 19:39
You mean what else is the USA to do (since both countries are intertwined)? In my opinion, simply nothing. Gee, what a novel idea. Israel does not bomb Iran. Iran does not bomb Israel. The US tries to figure out the oil crisis thru safer means and Isreal works with her neighbors for peace. All this propaganda about the world's evildoers is making me barf. Looking in the mirror is an apt solution.

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Posted By: Zagros
Date Posted: 17-Jul-2008 at 19:44
Seko, they couldn't care less, they just want to thieve Iran's resources like they have Iraq's or just simply stop China and India from being powered by them.  they think they can do it militarily or through unending black propaganda, intimidation and threats but they can't do jack and they have just realised this.  The Yankees are setting up a diplomatic outpost in I-ran as we speak - they are just keeping up the facade to save face - then they will magically come up with some sort of concession they will claim to have coerced from Iran and try to make themselves look like the victors in all of this asinine BS.


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Posted By: Seko
Date Posted: 17-Jul-2008 at 19:48
You are right about that Zagros. There are so many real alternatives to war when you really think about it. Of political interest, I find it amusing that the Bush team is to have one diplomatic talk with one of the "Axis of Evil". Hmmm, wasn't Obama ridiculed for just that?

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Posted By: Zagros
Date Posted: 17-Jul-2008 at 20:25
Well they have are having talks with NK ("AoE")...  So the neo-cons, republicans, axis of idiots or whatever they like to call themselves are a bunch of liars and hypocrites and frankly i would lose all hope in the people of America if they are gullible enough to elect any more mad-men to office.  And this is to mention nothing of the impending global economic collapse that they have covered up and even fuelled.


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Posted By: eaglecap
Date Posted: 17-Jul-2008 at 20:31
Originally posted by Seko

You mean what else is the USA to do (since both countries are intertwined)? In my opinion, simply nothing. Gee, what a novel idea. Israel does not bomb Iran. Iran does not bomb Israel. The US tries to figure out the oil crisis thru safer means and Isreal works with her neighbors for peace. All this propaganda about the world's evildoers is making me barf. Looking in the mirror is an apt solution.


You are correct and yes our country is intertwined. But with threats from Iran's President don't you think it makes Israel a little paranoid. I do not want this to happen because, aside from the politicians, there are innocent people on both sides. I do believe in Israel's right to exist, although, they are far from Angels. The more I learn about the globalist agenda the more I realize that evil exists on both sides. Such a war would not only start WWIII but the radiation would impact Greece and Turkey. But, what if Iran struck first???

From the BBC - propaganda - I doubt it!
Iran leader defends Israel remark

Protesters in Tehran burned Israeli flags
Iran's president has defended his widely criticised call for Israel to be "wiped off the map".


Here is the title of that video which could offer a solution or they hope. (yahoo or google it)

43 Nations, 800,000 Million Inhabitants Form “Historic” Mediterranean Union

The way things are happening over there one oould almost believe in the Devil who is master minding the whole scenario-



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Λοιπόν, αδελφοί και οι συμπολίτες και οι στρατιώτες, να θυμάστε αυτό ώστε μνημόσυνο σας, φήμη και ελευθερία σας θα ε


Posted By: Zagros
Date Posted: 17-Jul-2008 at 20:57
Actually, Ahmadinejad recently stated, as reported by Iran's version of the BBC (PressTV), he has never called for the destruction of Israel [by physical means], he has only described its demise in a USSR like fashion which is actually not all that inconceivable in the future.  I would believe an iranian source over what that country's president says over any BBC, CNN or other you quote when it comes to what has and hasn't been PUBLICLY stated by Iranian politicians.

Ahmadinejad does not control iran's armed forces, he is actually pretty impotent when it comes to foreign and military affairs.   I find it hysterical how the impotence of Iran's President was so overly emphasised when it had an outreaching and "peaceloving" president and now it is the other way around. 

So a little simple research or even recall wouldn't go amiss for the likes of some.  :)


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Posted By: Zagros
Date Posted: 17-Jul-2008 at 21:08
PS: the hostility against Israel (flag burning - omg)  in recent days is pretty understandable given the scale of military threats against Iran by Israel over the last two weeks.


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Posted By: Omar al Hashim
Date Posted: 18-Jul-2008 at 03:02
Originally posted by Leo

GPS can be used to overcome drift it seems. civilian GPS is the golden question, and in combination with what Iran has. The question the US and Israel would want to know;  do they have laser Gyro's (RLG's), are they any good.

The accuracy of the Gyro isn't the problem, its the time step. Gyroscopes measure linear acceleration and angular velocity. For positioning its linear acceleration we are concerned about. From basic physics we know that acceleration integrated twice with respect to time gives us displacement. So theoretically if we know the acceleration, starting velocity and position we can always figure out where we are. However that only works if our results are continuous - which they aren't.
If we clock the gyroscope and integrating circuits at 50MHz, we have a time step of 20ns. That is, every 20ns we can take a measurement of the acceleration. Inbetween these samples we have no measurement, and have no idea what the acceleration is. We only know it once every time step. Any changes in acceleration between time steps are unmeasured, and cause errors.
The smaller your time step, the more accurate the result, but unless you can get the timestep to 0, you will always accumulate errors over time.
This also means the faster your acceleration is changing, the bigger your error, hence why it is harder to navigate a missile than a model helicopter.

GPS can be used to correct for these errors to an extent. We can use the gyros to measure inbetween GPS results. GPS for 'macro' positioning, gyros for 'micro' positioning. However, if the GPS gives a reading 10m away from where the gyros + last GPS reading should indicate, which one do we take to be true? You have to take the GPS, because GPS errors unlike gyro errors aren't cumulative.
why is that stuff public.

All robots need this type of navigation, not just missiles. Alot of university research goes into this field too. I was (attempting) to use a gyro to navigate a small autononomous racer just last semester. Chance are militaries do have alot of information that the public doesn't, but not surprisingly I don't know what it is
Originally posted by Al Jassas

The Germans send accurate V2 missiles without GPS or other high tech equipment.

It'd be pretty hard to miss London. They couldn't hit the building they wanted in London.
Originally posted by Zagros

From what i remember reading a couple of years ago the I-ranians have developed a system which can flip between Ruskie and Yanky sat systems and also incorporates gyroscopics.

GLONASS has only 13 working satellites, and is operational only 56% of the time. Even when it was fully operational it was only accurate to 70m. I'd be seriously freaked out if anyone uses it to guide a missile with. It might hit anything
Originally posted by eaglecap


43 Nations, 800,000 Million Inhabitants Form “Historic” Mediterranean Union

The EU are worried about letting Turkey in, the chances they'll unite with Algeria are as close to 0 as freezing point.

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Posted By: Bankotsu
Date Posted: 18-Jul-2008 at 08:45

PLAIN FACTS ABOUT IRAN’S MILITARY

http://www.ericmargolis.com/archives/2008/07/plain_facts_abo.php - http://www.ericmargolis.com/archives/2008/07/plain

US sends senior diplomat to nuclear talks with Iran
http://www.wsws.org/articles/2008/jul2008/iran-j18.shtml - http://www.wsws.org/articles/2008/jul2008/

Flexibility points to Iran breakthrough
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/JG19Ak01.html - http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Mid


Posted By: Cryptic
Date Posted: 18-Jul-2008 at 20:38
Originally posted by Omar al Hashim

Originally posted by Cryptic


Nobody knows for sure.  The total population of the Kingdom and the number of actual  Saudi Citizens are state secrets.

A figure so secretive it is published by the Saudi government in order to keep those gharbiyya from knowing the truth!
About 23 million.
Including foriegners 28,161,417 in July 2008
 
Just because Saudi Arabia publishes figures does not mean that the published figures are accurate. The "official" Saudi census figures for past years evidently contain more than a few demographic uhmm... "improbabilities".
 
http://journals.cambridge.org/download.php?file=%2FMES%2FMES40_01%2FS002074380708004Xa.pdf&code=dfa711ad18bbfb47ef0a6e06d5ccf9fa - http://journals.cambridge.org/download.php?file=%2FMES%2FMES40_01%2FS002074380708004Xa.pdf&code=dfa711ad18bbfb47ef0a6e06d5ccf9fa http://journals.cambridge.org/download.php?file=%2FMES%2FMES40_01%2FS002074380708004Xa.pdf&code=2b9156afb78bf392d563057d88374391 -


Posted By: Al Jassas
Date Posted: 18-Jul-2008 at 21:11
Whoa there Cryptic and Omar, Saudi Arabia keeps a census every 10 years (starting from 1992) and the last one was in 2003. The result was that there were 23 million people living in the country and 16 million of them were Saudi. A further 2 million illegals exist making the total number. Here is a link to the governments planning ministry:
http://www.mep.gov.sa/ - http://www.mep.gov.sa/
 
Al-Jassas 


Posted By: Cryptic
Date Posted: 19-Jul-2008 at 04:49
Al Jassas,
 
There are many sources which conclude that the offical figures are suspect. Though I am no demographer, the 7 million net gain in Saudi citizens between 2003 and 2008 (Your and Omar's references) seems very improbable.  This is especially so considering that it is  difficult to obtain Saudi citizenship through naturalization etc.


Posted By: Leonidas
Date Posted: 19-Jul-2008 at 05:53
Originally posted by eaglecap


You are correct and yes our country is intertwined. But with threats from Iran's President don't you think it makes Israel a little paranoid.
who is making the threats?

my bolding

Defence Minister Ehud Barak in July 2008
Defence Minister Ehud Barak told Israeli public radio Iran represented a challenge for the whole world.

"Israel is the strongest country in the region and we have already shown in the past that we are not afraid of acting when our vital interests are threatened," he said.

http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,24002718-5001028,00.html - www.news.com.au/


Transport Minister Shaul Mofaz June 2008
"If Iran continues with its program for developing nuclear weapons, we will attack it. The sanctions are ineffective," Transport Minister Shaul Mofaz told the mass-circulation Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper.

"Attacking Iran, in order to stop its nuclear plans, will be unavoidable," said the former army chief who has also been defense minister.

http://www.reuters.com/article/wtMostRead/idUSL0625195820080606 -
"An Iranian attack against Israel would trigger a tough reaction that would lead to the destruction of the Iranian nation," National Infrastructure Minister Benjamin Ben-Eliezer said in remarks of rare virulence.

"Iranians are aware of our strength but continue to provoke us by arming their Syrian allies and Hezbollah," he said during a meeting at his ministry.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/04/07/2210357.htm -

Neither country was capable of defending itself,  but Iran is determined to at least try to exact a price on those who seek its subjugation.  For this legitimate objective it requires some means of fighting back, and missiles are its answer. You might not agree that missiles, nuclear or otherwise, are a good thing  – and I certainly don't – but you have to see the Iranians’ point.

The egregious Rice, always ready to throw fuel on flickering flames of ill feeling, declared  “I don't think the Iranians are too confused . . .  about the capabilities and power of the United States.  In the Gulf area, the United States has enhanced its security capacity, its security presence and we are working closely with all our allies . . .   [to]  make it more difficult for Iran to threaten, be bellicose and say terrible things.”  You've got to laugh about that one :   “Say terrible things” ?   Presumably the bellicose Israeli Generals Barak and Mofaz have a US license to say terrible things, but Iran is supposed to keep its collective mouth shut when menaced by a bunch of bizarre fanatics only slightly less repugnant than Teheran’s mullahs.

It is not understood by Israel and the US why a nation they attack should want to conduct such resistance as it might be able to offer.  Why, exactly,  should Iran do nothing while being blasted by Israeli deep penetration bombs and who knows what other US-supplied munitions?  (And remember the 100,000 unexploded US cluster bombs that killed so many children during and after Israel’s invasion of Lebanon two years ago.)

The mullahs in Tehran are a bunch of extremely unpleasant bigots, but it is unreasonable, to say the least,  to expect them to sit there wringing their collective hands while the bombs thunder down.   What country in the world,  if it possessed some means of retaliation,  could possibly allow blatant aggression to go unheeded?  Would Israel?  Would the US?  Of course not.  But what they have to remember is that what is sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander.  And if they attack Iran the results could be disastrous.


http://www.counterpunch.com/cloughley07152008.html - www.counterpunch.com/cloughley07152008.html

 
Originally posted by eaglecap

But, what if Iran struck first???
They have said all along they will not strike first something that seems to get glossed over in our media. All they're huff and puff is about a counter strike, and punishment for any aggression. They aren't foolish to start a damaging fight, but they're not going top look weak and take it laying down. They need to assure their own population they are strong to defend against any bullying and threats. Otherwise any doubt about this strength, inferring the regimes weakness, would damage them politically. The Iranian position is totally understandable and predictable.

Originally posted by eaglecap

From the BBC - propaganda - I doubt it!
Sometimes you see it over other stories bro..

Try that UK sailors seized by iran story, some of us knew they (as well as other media) were wrong then and only the Times admitted it was wrong this year.

 A more recent example is the fear mongering, unproven, speculative and most probably wrong (exaggerated) ranges applied to the shahab3. As far as we can tell, there are two version, and that only one of these with the 500kg head (half size) could comfortably hit Israel. If you read our conversations over these weapon you will notice it isn't as big a deal as what the Israeli's (or Tehran) are going on about. Israel is just worried about a time in the future when they are nuked up. All that tough talk they say now, 'we can destroy' or 'act' or whatever would be answered in kind. Sux when your not the only one with nukes, they may need to change that aggressive attitude.





Posted By: Omar al Hashim
Date Posted: 21-Jul-2008 at 07:25
Originally posted by Cryptic

There are many sources which conclude that the offical figures are suspect. Though I am no demographer, the 7 million net gain in Saudi citizens between 2003 and 2008 (Your and Omar's references) seems very improbable.  This is especially so considering that it is  difficult to obtain Saudi citizenship through naturalization etc.

My source was the CIA world factbook.
Plus your link is broken. So I still want to know on what basis you think the Saudi census is inaccurate. Compared to a disorganised overpopulated country such as India, I'd have thought that the Saudi census would one of the most reliable in the world.


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