Analysis: Brazil’s Nuclear Program

Both decisions are to be resolved soon when Brazil releases a yearlong comprehensive report, the work of six ministries, which contains a revision of its nuclear program and plans for the future.

That report, known as the Brazilian Nuclear Program, has been in the works since May 2004, after President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva's visit to China in 2004.

This time a report in Estado de Sao Paulo suggests Brazil made a commitment to a new and ambitious nuclear program, but according to a high official in Brazil's nuclear program, no final decisions have been reached on the proposed report, which has not yet been presented to, nor adopted by, Lula.

Although one of the scenarios envisioned by the new plan calls for building as many as seven new reactors, that is just one of many scenarios envisioned by the report, according to Odair Goncalves, president of Brazil's Atomic Energy Commission.

"The proposed plan is still being debated within the executive office of the president and within the affected ministries," he said, noting export of uranium is prohibited under Brazil's existing laws.

Brazil does face an imminent decision, however, on whether it will proceed with construction of its third nuclear reactor, Angra III.

Jose Dirceu, Lula's Chief of Staff, who favored proceeding with the project, recently had to quit over a financial scandal and his replacement is against building Angra III.

"Angra III can be resolved without approving the recommended new Brazilian nuclear program," Goncalves said. "However, if the Brazilian Nuclear Program is approved in the manner we have proposed, it certainly it will involve Angra III."

He added the new Brazilian nuclear program is more wide-ranging than the decision on Angra III.

The Atomic Energy Commission, known as CNEN, controls all nuclear material in Brazil and helps shape nuclear policy.

Last year's news reports that Brazil would export enriched uranium to China, along with an earlier incident involving the International Atomic Energy, the U.N. nuclear watchdog, has brought Brazil's nuclear program to the world's attention.

Goncalves called those stories inaccurate and misleading. He told United Press International of the actual events:

"While we were in China during the president's state visit, the Chinese indicated they wanted very much to import Uranium from us...they didn't much care at that point whether it was enriched or not.

"They're going to need a lot of uranium; they're planning to build at least 10 nuclear reactors. In fact they said that they would even come down to Brazil to help us mine for the uranium.

"We said that was not permitted by the Brazilian constitution and that Brazil was not considering the export of uranium. Those are the facts. I know because I was there at the negotiating table."

What happened next was someone from the highest levels of the Brazilian government (though not the Science and Technology Minister, nor Brazil's President) told reporters "Brazil is closing lots of deals with the Chinese...we are going to export lots of minerals to China ...we are going to export iron ore, soy beans and Uranium."

When that got out, it made the front pages of most of the world's newspapers.

"So, we had to go out of our way to say, 'no' we're not planning to do this, but all the attention that story generated led our president to ask for an inter-ministerial review of our nation's nuclear program and our plans for the future," Goncalves said.

"The president himself wanted to know if we had a plan for the future (for our nuclear program). And so we embarked on this revision of Brazil's nuclear program. The China issue stimulated the revision, because it became evident in various branches of our government, that it was a big strategic and international issue."

During a recent interview with UPI, Dirceu, who was Lula's chief of staff at the time, confirmed Brazil was not involved in the international commerce of uranium, but indicated "an eventual reconsideration of that position depends upon the results of the wide-sweeping study of the Brazilian nuclear program which is currently under way."

Dirceu also said "a decision on Angra III will be taken by President Lula after an analysis is completed by the Council on National Energy Policy, which includes the participation of my ministry; the ministers of Mines & Energy, the Environment, Science & Technology, Planning, and Industry & Commerce, along with members of Brazil's scientific community."

(First of four parts)

"Brazil is now in the position to master the complete nuclear fuel cycle for peaceful energy generation; it has the seventh largest Uranium reserve in the world, possesses two functioning nuclear reactors, and is developing (through a proprietary centrifuge design) a new technology for energy generation," Dirceu said in a recent interview with United Press International that took place before he resigned his top positions over a financial scandal.

Brazil is in the initial phases of its program to enrich uranium, says Odair Goncalves, president of Brazil's Atomic Energy Commission.

"We have successfully operated our pilot (uranium enrichment) plant at Aramar, which was fully licensed by the IAEA," Goncalves said. "Now we're building our first full scale production facility at Resende."

The IAEA refers to the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. nuclear watchdog.

It was the plant at Resende, near Rio de Janeiro, that was featured in the world's newspapers last year when Brazilian authorities balked at allowing U.N. inspectors direct access to the plant's centrifuges, where the uranium is processed.

The Brazilians claimed the centrifuges were proprietary technology they had spent nearly a billion dollars and many years to develop, and which they wanted to protect.

Goncalves believes Brazil has come up with cutting-edge technology on the centrifuges.

"Most centrifuge designs try to work it out so that at least one end of the centrifuge is not physically attached to an axle, (or is only magnetically attached) which cuts down on the friction of turning parts and thus on maintenance costs," he said.

"Generally this is achieved only at one point of the centrifuge. Brazil has managed to design a centrifuge where neither end is attached physically to an axle, where both ends are magnetically levitated. This is our proprietary design and we believe we are the only ones who have been able to achieve this."

Dirceu believes this technology represents a "strategic intellectual property" for the country.

In 2004, the Brazilians said while they would allow U.N. inspectors into the Resende facility, they would not let them see the actual centrifuges, which they placed behind a set of "panels."

That led to news stories that Brazil had denied IAEA inspectors access to its nuclear installations and might be hiding something about its nuclear program.

"We never denied access to our facility," Goncalves said. "In Aramar, our pilot plant (for uranium enrichment) we had the same panels in front of the centrifuges. And the inspectors had no problem with that. We had a facility that was under safeguards and that didn't have any problems.

"So when we started to construct the new Resende plant we did everything the same way, except the difference now was that Sept. 11 happened. After Sept 11, the IAEA came to us and said 'We are no longer happy with the idea of the centrifuges behind panels; we're going to have to reconsider this approach.'"

At some point, inspectors said they wanted to see inside the panels, according to Goncalves, and a discussion began about whether it was necessary to look behind the panels to guarantee there wasn't any diversion of uranium for "improper purposes."

Since that incident, Brazil has reached a partial agreement with the IAEA inspectors for inspection of the Resende experimental plant under construction, according to Goncalves.

"There are various phases in the negotiations over the safeguard inspections in Resende. We have already reached an agreement with the AIEA over the testing phase. The negotiations over the final procedures are in its 'final phase,'" he emphasized.

"We agreed and the inspectors agreed that they don't have to look inside the panels to verify that no uranium is being diverted."

Goncalves claims he is "confident" a final agreement will be reached with the IAEA over Resende.

"Everything is moving toward a rapid solution which is why you have not seen anything more in the press specifically about Resende," Goncalves said.

"It will be a matter of weeks or at the most a month now to resolve this."

Not everyone is so sanguine, however.

Speaking on PBS' "NewsHour with Jim Lehrer," long-time arms control advocate Joe Cirincione said, "If we let Iran and Brazil get these technologies, many more countries might want it. And then you have a world where many more counties are on the very brink of nuclear weapons capability. That is too risky a situation to be able to tolerate. We've got to stop it here, we've got to stop it now."

Cirincione, the director of the Non-Proliferation Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, claims "once you have a large functioning enrichment capability, it's just a matter of retooling it to turn it into a nuclear bomb factory."

Brazil's Goncalves scoffs at such comparisons with Iran.

"It's the think tanks who want to cite this (comparison) with Iran, but this parallel does not exist. At no time, and under no circumstances, did Brazil give any indication that there was anything irregular with our program. Iran, on the other hand, went explicitly outside the regulations.

"It's not just a question of wanting to enrich Uranium; it's a question of how they have behaved until now. Iran turned itself into the focus of the world's attention by conducting 'undeclared activities.' The inspectors actually found undeclared and highly enriched uranium where it was not supposed to be," he noted.

And from there, the controversy began, according to Goncalves.

"The issue then became a matter of international politics."

The United States says Iran, in violation of its international treaty obligations, is using its civilian nuclear program to make weapons. Tehran denies the charge.

(Second of four parts)

By TerraDaily