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Russian invasion of Poland?

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  Quote TheAlaniDragonRising Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Russian invasion of Poland?
    Posted: 24-Jul-2016 at 13:43
Is this a climate where you might become paranoid now or what?

Nato must prepare for 'overnight Russian invasion of Poland' and the US must ship more missiles to the region, say experts

  •  Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 has made Poland and the Baltic  states nervous about the aggressive intentions of the Bear next door 
  •  
  • Poland joined Nato in 1999 and the Baltic states signed up five years later

  •  In 1939 Russia invaded eastern Poland after Stalin and Hitler carved the country up under the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact


  • The Russians could invade Poland 'overnight' and the US needs to do more to beef up Nato defences in the area and send more missiles to the region to deter Moscow.

    A 25-page document by the US-based Atlantic Council think tank says Nato needs to do more to 'counter a resurgent Russia'.

    The report says: 'Even if Moscow currently has no immediate intent to challenge Nato directly, this may unexpectedly change overnight and can be implemented with great speed, following already prepared plans. The capability to do so is, to a large extent, in place.'

    It says the timing of a Russian invasion could not be predicted but it could come as a result of Nato being 'distracted by another crisis' or as a reaction to a 'misperception of Nato's activities'.

  • The report goes on to say: 'Russia rarely disguises its true intentions. On the contrary, it has proclaimed them very publicly on various occasions, but, in general, the West has chosen not to believe Russia's declarations and disregards its willingness to carry them out.'

    The Atlantic Council claims Nato would be slow to respond to an invasion and Russia would use its nuclear weapons as a deterrent to prevent it turning into a full-scale war. 

    The report goes on to say Nato forces in Poland would be expected 'to delay and bog down an invading force and inflict unacceptable damage on it'.

    It says: 'The [Nato] force [in Poland] is not required to win the war, but it must be able to fight alongside the host-nation forces to buy Nato more time for reinforcement. Nato's presence in the region is currently not large enough to achieve this.'

    Russia's annexation of the Crimea in 2014 and its support for ethnic Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine has made Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia increasingly twitchy about their own security. 

    When he was asked about the possibility of a Russian attack recently, Lithuania's Defence Minister Juozas Olekas said: 'We cannot exclude it...They might exercise on the borders and then switch to invasion in hours.'

    In order to invade Poland the Russians would have to go through Latvia and Lithuania, unless it was able to persuade Belarus - which is pro-Moscow - to give its troops free passage. 

    Poland has traditionally been fearful of Russian invasion.

    After centuries of domination by the Russian Empire, the modern Polish state came into existence in 1918 but was divided and occupied by Germany and the Soviet Union in 1939 after Stalin and Hitler's foreign ministers signed the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact.

    After the war communist Poland came under Russian domination for decades, until the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact. 

  • Poland joined Nato in 1999, much to the chagrin of Russia, and has become increasingly keen to bolster its defences.

    Nato defence ministers recently agreed to a new multi-national force of 4,000 troops which would bolster the defence of Poland and the Baltic states.

    The United States, Canada, Germany and Britain will lead battalions of 1,000 troops each.

    Russia's Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu had urged Nato not to go ahead with the move and warned Moscow would respond by posting three new divisions of its own close to the frontier.

    The Republican presidential nominee, Donald Trump, has voiced disquiet with the amount of money the US pays to defend countries in eastern Europe. 

    The US accounts for more than 70 percent of all Nato spending and only four other members - Britain, Greece, Estonia and Poland - meet the minimum two percent of GDP spending on defence required by Nato.

    Trump said he would review the financial contributions made by Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania before acting under the treaty’s mutual defence clause if any of those countries were attacked by Russia. 

    Around 30,000 Nato troops took part in the recent Anakonda-16 exercise in Poland.

    Nineteen NATO members and five partner nations contributed troops to the exercise, which was designed to train and test their swift joint reaction to threats on land, sea and in the air.

    Russia meanwhile is building up a new base at Klintsy, 750 miles to the east. 

    Russia insists it poses no threat to the former Soviet states.

    Around a million ethnic Russians live in the Baltic states, with more than half of them in Latvia.

    Lithuanian officials claim Russia has tried to corrupt Lithuanian soldiers and businessmen to become spies for the Kremlin. 

  • http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3705545/Nato-prepare-overnight-Russian-invasion-Poland-ship-missiles-region-say-experts.html?ito=social-facebook



  • Edited by TheAlaniDragonRising - 24-Jul-2016 at 13:51
    What a handsome figure of a dragon. No wonder I fall madly in love with the Alani Dragon now, the avatar, it's a gorgeous dragon picture.
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      Quote Mosquito Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24-Jul-2016 at 18:10
    Originally posted by TheAlaniDragonRising

    Is this a climate where you might become paranoid now or what?


    Well, we are not really afraid of Russian invasion because:

    1. Russia took from Poland everything it wanted. Historicaly they moved Polish eastern border trough last 400 years from Smolensk to Bug river. Our current border is the result of their imperial policy. They have no farther claims to Polish territories. The eastern Poland which they invaded in 1939 is today Lithuania, Belarus and Ukraine.

    2. Right now their army is not strong enough to defeat us without using tactical nucelar weapons.

    3. We have no Russian minority in Poland therefore there will be no little green men like in Ukraine and no hybrid war.

    4. In the past they have occupied part of Poland (in the XIX century). It was for their empire a never ending source of problems with Polish terrorism and Polish uprisings. It costed them a lot of money and hundrieds thousands of killed soldiers.


    However the Baltic states are in much worse position. They got Russian minority, they got tiny armies and they are former republics of Soviet Union. Their geography makes them not only impossible to defend but even impossible to send them reasonable reinforcements in case of conflict.

    Edited by Mosquito - 24-Jul-2016 at 18:13
    "I am a pure-blooded Polish nobleman, without a single drop of bad blood, certainly not German blood" - Friedrich Nietzsche
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      Quote TheAlaniDragonRising Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24-Jul-2016 at 21:30
    Originally posted by Mosquito

    Originally posted by TheAlaniDragonRising

    Is this a climate where you might become paranoid now or what?


    Well, we are not really afraid of Russian invasion because:

    1. Russia took from Poland everything it wanted. Historicaly they moved Polish eastern border trough last 400 years from Smolensk to Bug river. Our current border is the result of their imperial policy. They have no farther claims to Polish territories. The eastern Poland which they invaded in 1939 is today Lithuania, Belarus and Ukraine.

    2. Right now their army is not strong enough to defeat us without using tactical nucelar weapons.

    3. We have no Russian minority in Poland therefore there will be no little green men like in Ukraine and no hybrid war.

    4. In the past they have occupied part of Poland (in the XIX century). It was for their empire a never ending source of problems with Polish terrorism and Polish uprisings. It costed them a lot of money and hundrieds thousands of killed soldiers.


    However the Baltic states are in much worse position. They got Russian minority, they got tiny armies and they are former republics of Soviet Union. Their geography makes them not only impossible to defend but even impossible to send them reasonable reinforcements in case of conflict.

    Mosquito, it wasn't that long ago that you were singing the praises of your intelligence services, and yet you're telling me information about the Russian military that is already known to be out of date. It is possible, I guess, that in order to not put your people into a state of panic that they might be withholding such information, but personally I see little benefit in doing so. I believe that the American military being so concerned have reopened an old Icelandic base. The Russian bear seems to be after fresh meat. But of course think smoke and mirrors, Mosquito, smoke and mirrors. Putin isn't very intelligent at all. In fact he's a little on the stupid side, a little bit slow on the uptake. However, what need of intelligence when you instigate the problem when you've already the solution waiting? Take this threat, it might be real, but the Russians will have it as military manoeuvres planned well in advance. The classic boy cries wolf. This keeps you off balance and mysteriously Poland in some form or other will attack the Russians. Russian TV's miraculously well placed reporters will have footage proving this evil act and them boom. Like I said, Putin is an idiot and a little sloppy but it only takes moments to misread what is really happening, and Putin comes riding in to save Europe from this far right-wing infestation  we are witnessing across the media. A rerun of post world war Europe I know but who says originality would be Putin's strong suit. Kind of shocked how something so obvious was something you missed, Mosquito. A question, has any media you've been watching within the last year or two been warning that the establishment was planning to release scare stories in order to control people? If in anyway this has been the case be wary be very very wary.  
    What a handsome figure of a dragon. No wonder I fall madly in love with the Alani Dragon now, the avatar, it's a gorgeous dragon picture.
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      Quote red clay Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24-Jul-2016 at 22:29
    From what I've seen on the net, a substantial portion of the Polish military has a "go ahead, make our day" attitude.

    It also appears there is a large sector of the population that agrees with them.
    Payback is always hell.

    Aside from that, Putin doesn't have a good enough reason to openly tangle with NATO.
    While the Polish Army is capable of taking on the Russians on their own, the threat of adding NATO forces to the mix would be a major deterrent.
    Putin may be stupid, but he's not crazy.


       



    Edited by red clay - 24-Jul-2016 at 22:46
    "Arguing with someone who hates you or your ideas, is like playing chess with a pigeon. No matter what move you make, your opponent will walk all over the board and scramble the pieces".
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      Quote medenaywe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25-Jul-2016 at 00:50
    Russian invasion on Russia follows next!Western world is so preoccupied with Russia.Cooperate with it and change the threats in civilization with lot of consumers and resources.Give the chance to Russia to change coordinates:East=West.
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      Quote TheAlaniDragonRising Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25-Jul-2016 at 13:16
    It shouldn't be forgotten that Donald Trump has said that NATO shouldn't automatically go to the rescue of eastern European nations if they are confronted by the Russians. 

    Is was being talked about on the video on the following site discussing this other subject:

    "FBI investigating suspected Russian hack of DNC emails"


    Edited by TheAlaniDragonRising - 25-Jul-2016 at 13:17
    What a handsome figure of a dragon. No wonder I fall madly in love with the Alani Dragon now, the avatar, it's a gorgeous dragon picture.
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      Quote medenaywe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25-Jul-2016 at 14:04
    Russian or Russian hackers attack?
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      Quote Mosquito Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25-Jul-2016 at 15:22
    Originally posted by TheAlaniDragonRising

    Mosquito, it wasn't that long ago that you were singing the praises of your intelligence services, and yet you're telling me information about the Russian military that is already known to be out of date. It is possible, I guess, that in order to not put your people into a state of panic that they might be withholding such information, but personally I see little benefit in doing so.


    Right now I have no idea in what shape are our secret services. When current conservative goverment was ruling Poland they simply fired from work all the veterans and spies, accusing them for being educated in Soviet schools and military academies and for having contacts with their old friends from GRU and KGB.


    Originally posted by TheAlaniDragonRising



    I believe that the American military being so concerned have reopened an old Icelandic base. The Russian bear seems to be after fresh meat.



    Putin still didnt finish his campaign in Ukraine. He definately counted for much bigger support of local ex-soviet population. It looks like he is not able to swallow the whole country.


    Originally posted by TheAlaniDragonRising


    But of course think smoke and mirrors, Mosquito, smoke and mirrors. Putin isn't very intelligent at all. In fact he's a little on the stupid side, a little bit slow on the uptake. However, what need of intelligence when you instigate the problem when you've already the solution waiting? Take this threat, it might be real, but the Russians will have it as military manoeuvres planned well in advance. The classic boy cries wolf. This keeps you off balance and mysteriously Poland in some form or other will attack the Russians. Russian TV's miraculously well placed reporters will have footage proving this evil act and them boom. Like I said, Putin is an idiot and a little sloppy but it only takes moments to misread what is really happening, and Putin comes riding in to save Europe from this far right-wing infestation  we are witnessing across the media. A rerun of post world war Europe I know but who says originality would be Putin's strong suit. Kind of shocked how something so obvious was something you missed, Mosquito. A question, has any media you've been watching within the last year or two been warning that the establishment was planning to release scare stories in order to control people? If in anyway this has been the case be wary be very very wary.


    Actually Putin first was thinking about gaining our support against Ukraine. He simply asked our ex-prime minister if we are interested in the partitions of Ukraine. In Moscow they have even prepared maps of such partitions and offered us all the territories we had before 1939. They had also piece of land for Romania and little piece of territory for Hungarians.

    Since then, Russia has attempted to involve Poland in the invasion of Ukraine, just as if it were a post-modern re-run of the historic partitions of Poland. “He wanted us to become participants in this partition of Ukraine,” says Sikorski. “Putin wants Poland to commit troops to Ukraine. These were the signals they sent us. … We have known how they think for years. We have known this is what they think for years. This was one of the first things that Putin said to my prime minister, Donald Tusk, [soon to be President of the European Council] when he visited Moscow. He went on to say Ukraine is an artificial country and that Lwow is a Polish city and why don’t we just sort it out together. Luckily Tusk didn’t answer. He knew he was being recorded."

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/10/vladimir-putins-coup-112025_Page3.html#ixzz4FRvFvlro
    Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook



    That was what our minister of foreign affairs did say soon after meeting with Putin.

    But just a while later came dementi:

    http://www.thenews.pl/1/10/Artykul/184983,Sikorski-apologises-for-memory-failure-during-Ukraine-partition-interview

    Former foreign minister admits meeting between PM Tusk and Vladimir Putin, where Russian's president offered parts of Ukraine to Poland, never took place in Moscow, as he originally claimed.
    My memory failed me. After checking, there was no bi-lateral [meaning one-to-one] meeting between Prime Minister Tusk and President Putin,” Radoslaw Sikorski said, Tuesday evening, adding that he was actually referring to comments Putin made at a NATO summit in Bucharest in 2008, and not in Moscow in February of that year, as he had originally told the American Politico magazine.

    Sikorski also appeared to back away from the claim that Putin offered parts of Ukraine to Poland on a plate, saying it could have been a sick joke but one that became more sinister as events have unfolded.

    Sikorski has come under fire for not releasing such explosive information before and Poland's largest opposition party has called for his resignation as speaker of parliament.

    The interview with Politico will be raised at a meeting of Poland's National Security Council on Wednesday, presidential spokeswoman Joanna Trzaska-Wieczorek has said.

    Asked why he and PM Tusk had not made public Putin's imperial ambitions before, Sikorski said that the "surreal" remarks “appeared significant only later, after the NATO summit, after the war in Georgia and the annexation of Crimea".


    According to Polish massmedia Putin came with such idea:



    Edited by Mosquito - 25-Jul-2016 at 15:28
    "I am a pure-blooded Polish nobleman, without a single drop of bad blood, certainly not German blood" - Friedrich Nietzsche
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      Quote Mosquito Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25-Jul-2016 at 15:34
    Finally if it wasnt enough, Russian Duma (parliament) sent letters to Poland, Romania and Hungary:


    http://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-partition-letter-idUSL5N0ML1LO20140324


    A prominent Russian politician has proposed dividing Ukraine along the lines of an infamous Nazi-Soviet pact and suggested that regions in Western Ukraine hold referendums on breaking away from Kiev.

    In a letter sent to the governments of Poland, Romania and Hungary, Vladimir Zhirinovsky also suggested those countries hold referendums on incorporating the regions into their territory.

    Zhirinovsky, whose nationalist Liberal Democratic party largely backs President Vladimir Putin in the Russian parliament, sent the letter as Russia annexed the Crimea region of southern Ukraine last week.

    He is deputy speaker at the Duma and his party holds a minority in the parliament. But his ideas and language resonate with a large part of the Russian population and the Kremlin's increasingly pro-nationalist rhetoric.

    His letter, seen by Reuters, suggested Poland, Hungary and Romania, who are now in the European Union, might wish to take back regions which he said were in the past their territories.

    The regions were incorporated into Ukraine when it was part of the Soviet Union at the end of World War Two and featured in a secret annex of the 1939 Molotov-Ribbentrop pact under which the Soviet and Nazi German foreign ministers carved up the area.

    "It's never too late to correct historical errors," Zhirinovsky wrote.

    It was not clear whether the letter was serious or a publicity stunt. But it follows a crisis in relations between Moscow and Kiev since the Moscow-backed Viktor Yanukovich was ousted as Ukraine's president last month.

    Zhirinovsky proposed Ukraine's Chernivtsi, Zakarpattia, Volyn, Lviv, Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk and Rovensky regions, together with Poland, Romania and Hungary hold referendums on whether the regions should break away from Ukraine.

    Romania might wish to have Chernivtsi, Hungary the Zakarpattia region, and Poland the rest, he said.

    The proposal would allow central Ukraine to be free of "unnecessary tensions" and the referendums would "bring prosperity and tranquillity to the Ukrainian native land," the letter said.

    Polish Foreign Ministry spokesman Marcin Wojciechowski dismissed the letter as a "complete oddity" and regretted some Russians "still think in terms of the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact."

    "I am a pure-blooded Polish nobleman, without a single drop of bad blood, certainly not German blood" - Friedrich Nietzsche
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      Quote Mosquito Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25-Jul-2016 at 15:49
    With english subs:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BR2cNeUnay8

    "I am a pure-blooded Polish nobleman, without a single drop of bad blood, certainly not German blood" - Friedrich Nietzsche
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