Future Scenarios about the US and the World

The last topic about a NATO WP war in 87 got me looking around a bit, and I found this. This study started in the mid 80's and ended in 93 with this paper. It is about 4 likley scenarios involving the world (as seen by the US) by 2020 http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB245.pdf It was written for the Army War College--That it might be fun

 

Scenario ALPHA: U.S. Isolationist.
Scenario ALPHA describes a relatively peaceful world where
the U.S. perception of an external threat is low and the size of
its military force is small. The U.S. leadership and its business
infrastructure in this international environment have turned
toward isolationism. In general, the concerns of the U.S.
leadership and its citizens in the year 2020 are directed more
toward greater budgetary investments in social, welfare,
educational, and environmental programs than in programs for
space, defense or foreign economic and military aid. For the most
part, the infrastructures of the United States and the other
postindustrial nations individually do not appear to have a
capacity to support a timely major military or industrial surge
in the event of national or global crises.
A rise of nationalism throughout many nations of the world,
including nations with prior long-term agreements with the United
States, has suppressed U.S. international influence and has
precluded U.S. military presence overseas. Increasingly, on the
home front, despite the small number of military forces, local
U.S. community infrastructures (economies, politics, resources,
and demographics) are inhibiting military stationing and training
requirements, as well as other installation activities. Public
indifference to new military investments (especially those
related to weapons and their movement into or out of stations and
through community thoroughfares for testing and training) has
generally hampered any semblance of military preparedness.
The U.S. defense budget has plummeted significantly since
the turn of the century. The pressures of congressional
environmentalists have forced the closure of many of the
remaining military bases that were not closed around 2005. The
U.S. armed services have been reorganized into a joint/unified
configuration called the General Defense Forces (GDF). New
military and other government personnel are acquired through PEP,
a nationwide Public Education Program. Slightly more than about
half of the total U.S. military force is equipped with high-tech,
state-of-the-art, 21st century equipment and weapons. The
warfighting GDF, Land Defense Forces (LDF), Sea Defense Forces
(SDF), and Air and Space Defense Forces (ASDF), overall, are 15
percent heavy (not easily deployed), 50 percent medium, and 35
percent light (easily deployed). Most SDF ships (U.S. Navy) have
been mothballed, since they are outmoded and of mid 20th century
vintage. The remainder are high-tech and staffed by well-trained
career SDF personnel. The ASDF (Air Force), although reduced in
personnel strength, has sufficient highly-trained warfighter
personnel to support its high-tech contingency air and space
craft, weapons, and other equipment. Older 20th century aircraft
have been scrapped or converted to civilian use.
Despite a mild U.S. economic slump and a global recessive
trend, the world's economy continues to experience fluctuating
periods of high and medium growth, yet is invigorated and remains
highly competitive. The European Community, essentially a
singular unit, has abandoned defense expenditures to meet the
heightened demands of economic competition from the Asian-Pacific
Rim markets. The Union of Social Democratic Republics (USDR), a
new confederacy made up of and derived from several former Soviet
Union republics around the turn of the century, has progressed
sufficiently well in economic, political, and social development
to be accepted (marginally) as a postindustrial nation by other
nations in that category. The USDR is highly competitive with the
Union of Sovereign Republics (USR), another confederacy of former
Soviet Union republics, but retains certain grievances against
the USR. The USDR and USR, however, maintain close, supportive
relationships through a temporary Commonwealth of Confederacies
which replaced a previous commonwealth over a decade ago. Both
the USDR and the USR have small, well-structured armies and both
possess nuclear weapons.
Scenario BRAVO: U.S. World Peacekeeper.
Scenario BRAVO describes a competitive world of economic
trade markets where an undercurrent of external threats and
contentions, both economic and military, to U.S. interests are
perceptibly increasing. Worldwide, U.S. economic and military
assistance agreements are many and backed by a large U.S.
peacekeeping military force. A tradeoff of nationalism for
economic development and representative government by many
nations worldwide has strengthened U.S. international influence,
preserved U.S. investments, and assured the United States of a
military presence overseas. The presence of U.S. industries,
with their advanced facilities and know-how, is visible and
productive in most nations of the world. Deindustrialization of
the United States and most of the other postindustrial nations
has occurred since the latter half of the past century. Almost
all of these nations by 2010, however, can still support an
industrial mobilization or even surge requirements quite well in
the event of confrontations or global crises.
Over the past decade or so, the leadership in the U.S.
Congresses and the Administrations have advocated a strong
military defense. Sizeable and costly military exercises are
being conducted worldwide. U.S. military forces are freely
participating in combined land exercises in many regions of the
globe where the U.S. military have never been seen before, e.g.,
in land masses of Asia, China, and, as early as 2000, in the
former 20th century Soviet Republic of Russia. Russia is the
leader of the confederacy of the Union of Sovereign Republics
(USR).
Throughout the continental United States, nearly all local
communities have accepted military service men and women as part
of the community family. Defense budgets are strongly supported
by the American public, as are budgets for welfare, education,
and the environment. The leadership and citizens of most U.S.
local communities underpin and encourage military stationing and
installation investments in their neighborhoods without
conditions. They also share with the U.S. military service men
and women the personal and community enrichment brought about by
an ever increasing foreign military personnel exchange program.
Such enrichment is further increased through the international
scientific and cultural exchanges that are evident in the BRAVO
world of 2020.
In BRAVO, the U.S. military budget has increased
substantially since the turn of the century. This has come about
since 2005 when a more aggressive USR leadership reinforced its
military forces because of internal, ethnic strife and perceived
external threats. By 2005 the USR's conventional strength, its
residual nuclear capabilities, and its achievements in space
(alone and jointly with the United States), have become
potentially formidable threats to the Union of Social Democratic
Republics (USDR), the European Community (EC), United States,
possibly China, and other nations. The USDR, a marginal
postindustrial nation contiguous with the USR, has increased its
military forces also. These potential threats have pressured the
U.S. Congress, around 2005, to enact an 18-month National Public
Service (NPS) program that includes all agencies of the federal
government and provides training for all citizen and noncitizen
residents. For the military services, which had been all
volunteer, NPS provides a constant source of trained troops. The
U.S. military leadership believes its total force is well
prepared for any eventuality. The total force is 60 percent
high-tech while the warfighting force is 85 percent high-tech.
The active U.S. military strength in personnel is about half that
of an over-a-million Reserve Component.
Scenario CHARLIE: Neonationalism World.
The rise of nationalism worldwide in scenario CHARLIE has
significantly suppressed U.S. political, economic, and military
influence and has eliminated the presence of the U.S. military
forces and most American industries overseas. CHARLIE is a highly
competitive world where economic trade wars, embargoes, and
restrictions abound. The European Community (EC) is experiencing
an economic pinch of the nationalistic, worldwide fervor for
nations to buy at home. Since around 2005, the EC has perceived
no significant military threats to itself, its interests, or to
the rest of Europe. With the exception of France and the United
Kingdom, all other EC states have demilitarized. NATO became an
empty shell nearly a decade ago. The EC and NATO, except for one
or two states, essentially, would be unable even to support a
peacekeeping force effectively, alone or within a United Nations
force, or to quell ethnic conflicts in the EC or in neighboring
states. By 2005, nearly all U.S. forces have left Europe except
for a few over-manned caretaker contingents and the U.S. forces
involved in training exercises in the Union of Sovereign
Republics (USR) and the Union of Social Democratic Republics
(USDR).
External threats to the United States or its interests are
more of a challenge to U.S. economic trade and markets than they
are threats to political ideology that would call for the use of
military force. Largely for this reason, the U.S. leadership has
provided substantial budgetary support to social and welfare
programs and far less to defense. The military budget remains low
despite U.S. national political and military leaders advocating a
need for a stronger military. This has constrained U.S. security
to a small, high-tech, elite military force and has reduced the
Defense budget to its lowest level since the 1930s. A
significant portion of the Defense budget is invested into
high-tech weaponry and its ancillary equipment, and research and
development, in general. The general public opinion of military
service is high. However, partly because of population growth and
partly because of military environmental infractions, local U.S.
communities do not want military installations in their back
yards. These communities tend to block military stationing
requirements and are demanding that Congress close more stations
and reduce military installation investments. The congressional
majority also perceives little or no significant threat or a need
for a large military establishment, and supports the interests of
these communities. Since the military needs only to staff a small
force, its source of physically, mentally, and morally fit
volunteers for career service is provided through the Universal
Public Service (UPS) program of 2003.
Since the late 1990s and the early 2000s, the continued U.S.
economic support to Russia and Ukraine (especially), Georgia, and
other republics of the former Soviet Union has given these new
nations status in the new order of nations. Russia, circa 2005,
formed a new confederacy with several other former republics and
has become the leading republic of the Union of Sovereign
Republics (USR). Likewise, Ukraine has become the leading
republic of the Union of Social Democratic Republics (USDR).
Drawbacks in the USR by 2010, such as mismanagement of the
national economy and sociopolitical struggles, including ethnic
strife, have prevented the USR from achieving the status of a
postindustrial state. It remains an industrial country, whereas
the USDR held steadfast to democratic government reforms and
wisely managed its economic affairs. Additionally, the USDR
skillfully averted the ethnic fighting that largely sapped the
progress of its neighbor confederacy, the USR. For these reasons,
the USDR has been marginally accepted by the other postindustrial
states to join them in the management of peaceful world affairs.
Both the USDR and the USR have modern military forces and both
have nuclear weapons.
The elite military forces of the United States are organized
as the National Defense Force (NDF) and include all services.
The NDF is fully capable of land, sea, air, and space operations.
It is operationally situation-dependent, i.e., organized for
warfighting in any one of the four operations alone, in dual
combinations, e.g., air or space and land or sea, or in a
multi-operational configuration, all four at one time. The NDF is
supported by a large single reserve component (National Guard and
Reserve combined). Both the active and reserve components are
100 percent high-tech equipped and trained. Operational doctrine
and warfighting strategies are highly advanced to match the
capabilities of the elite forces, i.e., any combination of
strategies and operations.
Scenario DELTA: Muted Multipolar World.
This scenario describes a productive economic world where
U.S. political leadership favors social and welfare investments
over those of defense. DELTA, however, is a scenario where U.S.
local communities increasingly object to military activities at
installations in or nearby their communities. The worldwide
threat to the United States and its interests is generally
perceived by the U.S. leadership to be about the same as it was
in the late 1990s, i.e., more of an economic threat than a
military one and with a constant global demand to prove its
global leadership. Since the turn of the century and by 2020, the
military threat emanating from the Union of Sovereign Republics
(USR) has steadily grown. The USR is a new confederacy made up of
several republics of the former Soviet Union, largely Russia, in
about 2003. In 2020 the USR is under a coalition leadership that
is an economically aggressive three-party system: democratic,
communist, and socialist. The military threat is greater for the
European Community (EC) and the other confederacies formed from
the former Soviet Union republics in the first decade of the
century than it is for the United States. The other confederacies
are the Union of Social Democratic Republics (USDR) and the Union
of Independent States (UIS). The EC, driven by its need for new
global economic markets, by 2005 is gaining in economic growth
while gradually improving its competitive position globally,
especially in the Asian-Pacific Rim markets. U.S. international
economic and political influence, during the same time, is being
strengthened worldwide by most nations that are making a tradeoff
of nationalism for economic growth and are encouraging U.S. trade
and tourism.
The reduction of the U.S. military during the past several
decades has decreased U.S. presence overseas and reduced the
number of local military installations throughout the United
States. About 2005, the President combined the Army, Navy, and
Air Force into one joint service, primarily to reduce costs and
redundancies. The President and the Congress believe that the
single joint service will be more responsive to global crises
than the services would be separately. They also believe that a
jointly responsible service will be better able to accommodate
state and local governments and their citizens who are demanding
greater military adherence to Federal laws regarding the
protection of the environment. Local and military community
relationships have been faltering in the DELTA scenario almost
since the turn of the century because of the military's disregard
of the environment and its procrastination in clean up of its
past violations.
Since the turn of the century the Defense budgets and
related programs have been increasingly austere in comparison to
past funding of the military in the late 20th century. The
national economic benefits of military assistance programs in the
DELTA world, however, are mutually satisfying to host nations and
to the United States. These arrangements, i.e., overseas
assignments for active and reserve forces, although limited in
number, along with other inducements support voluntary military
enlistment as the only source of recruitment for the joint
service in the DELTA scenario.
The DELTA 2020 military force, organized as a single,
Unified Defense Force (UDF), is a mix of generalists and
specialists. The UDF has light (easily deployable) high-tech
land, air, and sea components for rapid shock attack. They
complement medium and heavy (less deployable) land, air, and sea
components that have high-tech, light weight, high resistance
armament and 21st century weaponry; some are remotely controlled
robots. The UDF is supported by a component of National Guardsmen
and Reservists who wear the UDF uniform when in active service.
The primary role of the DELTA 2020 military force is defensive,
but it is fully capable of responding to a variety of offensive
missions and situations when needed.