Future Failed States?

I've been thinking about future failed states and I thought I would possibly compile a list with my thoughts of nations that could end up ones in the future.

South Africa
Serbia/Kosovo
Turkey(Possibly)
Lebanon
Nigeria
Egypt
Iran(Possibly)
Indonesia
The Philippines(Possibly)
Cuba
Venezuela
Mexico
France(Possibly)
Georgia
Azerbaijan
China(Possibly)
India(Possibly)
Malaysia(Possibly)

So what does everyone think of the list and does anyone else have more to add.  
 

Edited by Kevin - 07-Jun-2008 at 02:58

Originally posted by Maharbbal err… I am not sure how you put France and India under the same category. Depends on what you mean by failed state. Is that "a state that may have issues in the future" (in which case France does fit) or is that "a state which in the short terms is likely to face such turmoil that may endanger its unity and the rule of law" (in that case France doesn't). Pretty much every state face one or more serious separatist claim, so that is not a good definition.

I guess I may have been too liberal by putting France in this catogory.

Here's the definition of failed state though.

Ok for those of you who are asking for the definition of a failed state.

A failed state is a state whose central government is so weak or ineffective that it has little practical control over much of its territory. The level of control required to avoid being considered a failed state varies considerably amongst authorities. Furthermore, the declaration that a state has "failed" is generally controversial and, when made authoritatively, may carry significant geopolitical consequences

Indicators of State Vulnerability

The index's ranks are based on twelve indicators of state vulnerability - four social, two economic and six political.[2] The indicators are not designed to forecast when states may experience violence or collapse. Instead, they are meant to measure a state's vulnerability to collapse or conflict. All countries in the red, orange, or yellow categories display some features that make parts of their societies and institutions vulnerable to failure. Some in the yellow zone may be failing at a faster rate than those in the more dangerous orange or red zones, and therefore could experience violence sooner. Conversely, some in the red zone, though critical, may exhibit some positive signs of recovery or be deteriorating slowly, giving them time to adopt mitigating strategies.[1]

[edit] Social Indicators

1. Demographic pressures: including the pressures deriving from high population density relative to food supply and other life-sustaining resources. The pressure from a population's settlement patterns and physical settings, including border disputes, ownership or occupancy of land, access to transportation outlets, control of religious or historical sites, and proximity to environmental hazards.[3]

2. Massive movement of refugees and internally displaced peoples: forced uprooting of large communities as a result of random or targeted violence and/or repression, causing food shortages, disease, lack of clean water, land competition, and turmoil that can spiral into larger humanitarian and security problems, both within and between countries.[4]

3. Legacy of vengeance-seeking group grievance: based on recent or past injustices, which could date back centuries. Including atrocities committed with impunity against communal groups and/or specific groups singled out by state authorities, or by dominant groups, for persecution or repression. Institutionalized political exclusion. Public scapegoating of groups believed to have acquired wealth, status or power as evidenced in the emergence of "hate" radio, pamphleteering and stereotypical or nationalistic political rhetoric.[5]

4. Chronic and sustained human flight: both the "brain drain" of professionals, intellectuals and political dissidents and voluntary emigration of "the middle class." Growth of exile/expat communities are also used as part of this indicator.[6]

[edit] Economic Indicators

5. Uneven economic development along group lines: determined by group-based inequality, or perceived inequality, in education, jobs, and economic status. Also measured by group-based poverty levels, infant mortality rates, education levels.[7]

6. Sharp and/or severe economic decline: measured by a progressive economic decline of the society as a whole (using: per capita income, GNP, debt, child mortality rates, poverty levels, business failures.) A sudden drop in commodity prices, trade revenue, foreign investment or debt payments. Collapse or devaluation of the national currency and a growth of hidden economies, including the drug trade, smuggling, and capital flight. Failure of the state to pay salaries of government employees and armed forces or to meet other financial obligations to its citizens, such as pension payments.[8]

[edit] Political Indicators

7. Criminalization and/or delegitimisation of the state: endemic corruption or profiteering by ruling elites and resistance to transparency, accountability and political representation. Includes any widespread loss of popular confidence in state institutions and processes.[9]

8. Progressive deterioration of public services: a disappearance of basic state functions that serve the people, including failure to protect citizens from terrorism and violence and to provide essential services, such as health, education, sanitation, public transportation. Also using the state apparatus for agencies that serve the ruling elites, such as the security forces, presidential staff, central bank, diplomatic service, customs and collection agencies.[10]

9. Widespread violation of human rights: an emergence of authoritarian, dictatorial or military rule in which constitutional and democratic institutions and processes are suspended or manipulated. Outbreaks of politically inspired (as opposed to criminal) violence against innocent civilians. A rising number of political prisoners or dissidents who are denied due process consistent with international norms and practices. Any widespread abuse of legal, political and social rights, including those of individuals, groups or cultural institutions (e.g., harassment of the press, politicization of the judiciary, internal use of military for political ends, public repression of political opponents, religious or cultural persecution.)[11]

10. Security apparatus as ‘state within a state’: an emergence of elite or praetorian guards that operate with impunity. Emergence of state-sponsored or state-supported private militias that terrorize political opponents, suspected "enemies," or civilians seen to be sympathetic to the opposition. An "army within an army" that serves the interests of the dominant military or political clique. Emergence of rival militias, guerilla forces or private armies in an armed struggle or protracted violent campaigns against state security forces.[12]

11. Rise of factionalised elites: a fragmentation of ruling elites and state institutions along group lines. Any use of nationalistic political rhetoric by ruling elites, often in terms of communal irredentism or of communal solidarity (e.g., "ethnic cleansing" or "defending the faith.")[13]

12. Intervention of other states or external factors: military or Para-military engagement in the internal affairs of the state at risk by outside armies, states, identity groups or entities that affect the internal balance of power or resolution of the conflict. Intervention by donors, especially if there is a tendency towards over-dependence on foreign aid or peacekeeping missions.[14]

This is according to Wikipedia

 

Why is the US not in this? It should be.

Moreover, what is the purpose of putting this thread since all countries have the potential to become future failed states.

That been said, you migh as well put the names of all nations in the world in this thread.

Then we can all take our picks and explain why.

I think that the US government has the potential to be a failed state. But who knows, judging from the wars we've raged since 1991, the US government seems to be more particular and wary of irrelavant issues. Such concentration on foreign issues and negation of its own people puts the government in a bad light. Many feel that it is inevitable that America would lose its status as superpower to China in the near future. After that, the US will definitely be going on the downward slope to doom. Then again, I may be proven wrong by American patriots. Lets hope the next president adresses these issues well.

Maybe we should create another thread about failed states recuperating in the future. North Korea would be my pick. Reunification is definitely imminent.

Missing in the list:

Bhutan, Sudan, Macedonia, Cote d'Ivoire, Albania, Bulgaria, Republic of Central Africa, Chad, Congo, RP Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, Kenya, Zimbabwe, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Algeria, Morocco, Moldova, Tailand, Burma, etc.

Originally posted by Maharbbal Missing in the list: Bhutan, Sudan, Macedonia, Cote d'Ivoire, Albania, Bulgaria, Republic of Central Africa, Chad, Congo, RP Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, Kenya, Zimbabwe, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Algeria, Morocco, Moldova, Tailand, Burma, etc.

'Thailand', not Tailand. No. I disagree Thailand will become a failed state. It is improving greatly both economically and socially thanks to its superb monarchs.
Most of the rest of these countries are truly on the brink of becoming failed states. Rwanda is seeking improvement though. Burma is already a failed state...

What is it about France that makes it onto that list of yours while the United States is not?  Was it because of the riots of a few years past?  Did the United States not also experience racial riots just a decade ago in the Los Angeles area?