Joined: 08-Mar-2006
Location: Paris
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 2120
QuoteReplyTopic: World faces choice between higher energy, food cos Posted: 25-May-2008 at 14:36
Pinguin you are ignorant re-read this thread and you'll understand that
1) Population growth is only feeding a part of the crisis
2) Massive improvement can be reached
3) The best way to feed the planet is through trade (Africa may never produce enough to feed itself but that does not matter as long as other regions of the world can produce the food African people need. Do you think the Netherlands produce all the food they consume?
There is no doomsday in sight, some painful bumps but no agricultural armagedon
Pinguin you are ignorant re-read this thread and you'll understand that
1) Population growth is only feeding a part of the crisis
The important part, isn't?
Originally posted by Maharbbal
2) Massive improvement can be reached
Land is finite. The food for the poors is produced in rich countries like the U.S. and only thanks to subsidies. The places that need the food are producing today less than in the past. To produce agricultural improvements you need to have money. And people more affected by the food crisis don't have it.
Originally posted by Maharbbal
3) The best way to feed the planet is through trade (Africa may never produce enough to feed itself but that does not matter as long as other regions of the world can produce the food African people need. Do you think the Netherlands produce all the food they consume?
Netherlands have one 15 more or less million people. And a coutry rich enough to buy its food at any price. SS Africa has 600 million already and will have 2 billions in two generations more. If it can't feed itself now, just imagine how will feed 50 years from now. It is just a case of a tragedy waiting to happen
Even more, if a crisis starts, the food producing countries will stop export to protect theirs local population. A real disaster could escalate really fast.
Originally posted by Maharbbal
There is no doomsday in sight, some painful bumps but no agricultural armagedon
Disasters have happened lot of times in the history of manking. Perhaps we will have to wait for massive hunger to strike so people realizes they have to control theirs fertility.
1) Population growth is only feeding a part of the crisis
The important part, isn't?
Nope it is a very important element but far from the one and only. It is difficult to know right now what proportion of the inflation is due to demographic growth, but if I had to guess I's say around 25%, certainly behind the price of oil and the change of food habits in the developping countries.
Land is finite. The food for the poors is produced in rich countries like the U.S. and only thanks to subsidies. The places that need the food are producing today less than in the past. To produce agricultural improvements you need to have money. And people more affected by the food crisis don't have it.
Russia has still millions of hectares that could produce enough food to feed a significant portion of the future generations. Many countries have seen their productivity decrease because of bad policies (North Korea, Burma, Zimbabwe). The day these countries step out of their misery, their agricultural production is deemed to increase considerably. The same goes for African countries whose yield per hectare is about a fourth of what could potentially be reached with a minimum investment.
Disasters have happened lot of times in the history of manking. Perhaps we will have to wait for massive hunger to strike so people realizes they have to control theirs fertility.
its not food production that is the problem, its the type of food production. We eat more meat, for instance the Chinese are eating more protein (also increasing their dairy intake) as they get richer. This means more grain is used for meat production and much more land and energy is used for less food.
BTW Africa can feed itself, there are two issue here that come front of mind, first agriculural production is bent towards cash crops, not basic food. Im talking cocoa, coffee, sugar and fruits. All for export as they chase $$. This was a World bank rip off set up after ww2. The poor countries took out loans to start this and are now caught in a debt trap as they all produced the same cash crops (prices crashed) and never got the return they expected. Second issue, is that these guys are badly governed, > corruption and conflict upseting any chance to develop further. For example, Zimbabwe was a food bowl. But the farms were white owned, Mugabe broke that old imperial legacy but never replaced the well managed esates with anything else. hence now they have little in the way of food production. Africa is resource rich, there is no reason why they shouldnt be rich.
BTW Africa can feed itself, there are two issue here that come front of mind, first agriculural production is bent towards cash crops, not basic food. Im talking cocoa, coffee, sugar and fruits. All for export as they chase $$. This was a World bank rip off set up after ww2. The poor countries took out loans to start this and are now caught in a debt trap as they all produced the same cash crops (prices crashed) and never got the return they expected. Second issue, is that these guys are badly governed, > corruption and conflict upseting any chance to develop further. For example, Zimbabwe was a food bowl. But the farms were white owned, Mugabe broke that old imperial legacy but never replaced the well managed esates with anything else. hence now they have little in the way of food production. Africa is resource rich, there is no reason why they shouldnt be rich.
Africa hardly can feed itself. A very simple analysis of the statistics shows it.
First, Africa is the driest continent, that is already overcrowded in relation to the poor irrigation it has. This is the evolution of water availability in 1990 and 2025.
dought in Africa:
Africa is both the driest continent (other than Oceania) and the region where hunger is most prevalent. Within Africa, undernourishment and periodic famines have afflicted semi-arid and drought-prone.. (FAO)
Unlike Asia and Latin America, Africa has failed in improving the yield of grain
Food production is declining in Africa
I wouldn't be optimistic about Africa in this respect at all. Africa is living on foreign aid already,
And food imports are growing, bought with foreign cash,
Africa is indeed resource rich. It will be in the interests of more industrialized areas (Europe and China [maybe India going forward] ) to see that it remains a balkanized, dependant pool of raw materials that can be exploited. Don't expect wealthy African states any time soon.
Failed states with starving, diseased populations are no direct threat to Europe or China or India. In states with a modicum of stability, Chinese geologists and engineers can do the accessing of oil and cobalt and industrial diamonds, etc. Overpopulation means a surplus of local labor for heavy lifting.
BTW Africa can feed itself, there are two issue here that come front of mind, first agriculural production is bent towards cash crops, not basic food. Im talking cocoa, coffee, sugar and fruits. All for export as they chase $$. This was a World bank rip off set up after ww2. The poor countries took out loans to start this and are now caught in a debt trap as they all produced the same cash crops (prices crashed) and never got the return they expected. Second issue, is that these guys are badly governed, > corruption and conflict upseting any chance to develop further. For example, Zimbabwe was a food bowl. But the farms were white owned, Mugabe broke that old imperial legacy but never replaced the well managed esates with anything else. hence now they have little in the way of food production. Africa is resource rich, there is no reason why they shouldnt be rich.
Africa hardly can feed itself. A very simple analysis of the statistics shows it.
First, Africa is the driest continent, that is already overcrowded in relation to the poor irrigation it has. This is the evolution of water availability in 1990 and 2025.
dought in Africa:
Africa is both the driest continent (other than Oceania) and the region where hunger is most prevalent. Within Africa, undernourishment and periodic famines have afflicted semi-arid and drought-prone.. (FAO)
Unlike Asia and Latin America, Africa has failed in improving the yield of grain
Food production is declining in Africa
I wouldn't be optimistic about Africa in this respect at all. Africa is living on foreign aid already,
And food imports are growing, bought with foreign cash,
Wow! A post with actual statistical sources. Good work!
With regard to Pinguin's comment above on the fact of much of sub-Saharan Africa "living on foreign aid already," how much of that foreign aid is stolen or otherwise diverted for the tribal/political benefit of ruling elites, or criminal enterprise (not that there is much difference in a lot of sub-Saharan Africa)?
BTW Africa can feed itself, there are two issue here that come front of mind, first agriculural production is bent towards cash crops, not basic food. Im talking cocoa, coffee, sugar and fruits. All for export as they chase $$. This was a World bank rip off set up after ww2. The poor countries took out loans to start this and are now caught in a debt trap as they all produced the same cash crops (prices crashed) and never got the return they expected. Second issue, is that these guys are badly governed, > corruption and conflict upseting any chance to develop further. For example, Zimbabwe was a food bowl. But the farms were white owned, Mugabe broke that old imperial legacy but never replaced the well managed esates with anything else. hence now they have little in the way of food production. Africa is resource rich, there is no reason why they shouldnt be rich.
Africa hardly can feed itself. A very simple analysis of the statistics shows it.
what you show, is that it isnt feeding itself. i am saying it certainly can feed itself. You would need to seperate the mismanagement part from the list of stats you show before you can strongly argue your case that it cant. For instance - no water could that be because they dont have the infrastucture? Africa is not complety dry.......... or no growth in crop yeilds, because they dont use the latest methods in farming? Zimbawe did produce more food when it was well managed, same land - different policies. BTW its is sitting on a allot of platinum, so go figure why its poor.
BTW Allot of the enviromental issues is self inflicted (like everywhere else), deforestation and the resulted soil erosion can punish them hard and it already has. While it may never be the same, expensive land rehabilitaion programs can stem those losses
anyway food can be produced in the desert if the right infrastucture/crops are in place.
Africa is indeed resource rich. It will be in the interests of more industrialized areas (Europe and China [maybe India going forward] ) to see that it remains a balkanized, dependant pool of raw materials that can be exploited. Don't expect wealthy African states any time soon.
Failed states with starving, diseased populations are no direct threat to Europe or China or India. In states with a modicum of stability, Chinese geologists and engineers can do the accessing of oil and cobalt and industrial diamonds, etc. Overpopulation means a surplus of local labor for heavy lifting.
Cynical, yeah, but true I think.
it is true, unless they wipe that debt one can only assume what you have said is the logic being played at the top. Our reaction to rwanda vs others is another example of our indifference.
China may make the west pull there socks up a bit, nothing like a bit of competition
...what you show, is that it isnt feeding itself. i am saying it certainly can feed itself. You would need to seperate the mismanagement part from the list of stats you show before you can strongly argue your case that it cant. For instance - no water could that be because they dont have the infrastucture? Africa is not complety dry.......... or no growth in crop yeilds, because they dont use the latest methods in farming? Zimbawe did produce more food when it was well managed, same land - different policies. BTW its is sitting on a allot of platinum, so go figure why its poor.
BTW Allot of the enviromental issues is self inflicted (like everywhere else), deforestation and the resulted soil erosion can punish them hard and it already has. While it may never be the same, expensive land rehabilitaion programs can stem those losses
anyway food can be produced in the desert if the right infrastucture/crops are in place.
I believe there is a fallacy in your argument. Of course, any land could be converted in a very productive land with enough water, but water is not free. Otherwise, the Sahara or the Atacama desert won't be the waste lands that are today.
Of course you can develop irrigation plans if you had water to start with. But Africa lacks large repositories of water! The problem won't be solve just building more channels. Perhaps desalination could help, but you wouldn't imagine how expensive is it, and who is going to invest on them?
The point is very simple. SS Africa has more people of what it can sustain already. Not all continents is equally fertile, I am afraid, and squared kilometers is not the single measure of how many people could sustain a land.
With respect to natural resources such as platinum or diamonds, those could help small populations to live superb, but as the population grows they hardly will sufice for all the needs a country has.
pinguin you making very broad enviromental type statements on a very big continent. What goes for Kenya is not the same for Ghana or even Rwanda. The Republic of Congo (either one) would be another example of where you are wrong. Planning or the lack of has allot more to do with the general African situation.
Sub-Saharan Africa suffers from chronically overburdened water systems under increasing stress from fast-growing urban areas. Weak governments, corruption, mismanagement of resources, poor long-term investment, and a lack of environmental research and urban infrastructure only exacerbate the problem. In some cases, the disruption or contamination of water supply in urban infrastructures and rural area has incited domestic and cross-border violence. Experts say incorporating water improvements into economic development is necessary to end the severe problems caused by water stress and to improve public health and advance the economic stability of the region.
Why is sub-Saharan Africa more vulnerable to water stress than other regions?
Insufficient infrastructure is a major reason.....Another disparity is evident within the sub-continent: Of the 980 large dams in sub-Saharan Africa, around 589 are in South Africa, whereas Tanzania, a country with nearly the same land mass and population, only has two large dams
Where are water problems most acute?
Southern-Africa and northern sub-Saharan Africa, in particular the strip across the continent along and north of the Sahel region in West Africa, suffer the most
Do national boundaries affect water stress?
Yes. When colonial boundaries were drawn, residents were separated from resources, especially water.
What is the relationship between water stress and economic development?
Experts say improving water and sanitation programs is crucial to spurring growth and sustaining economic development. Because it takes time to develop these programs, a paradox emerges: Poor economies are unable to develop because of water stress, and economic instability prohibits the development of programs to abate water stress.
Pinguin, thx for the stats but they are not relevant (sorry some tech problem I can quote)
1. AIDS is unrelated 2. Relative decline in PIN/cap could mean that Africa does not export food anymore or that the value of the food produced as decline but not the quantity. 3. Africa is truly late in implementing best practice in most of its agriculture. 4. Water is a problem? True, but since Kenya and Ethiopia (pretty dry places) have become a new hub in horticulture, it shows that it is not an unsolvable issue.
Production in Africa is so low that it can only rise. It is lacking investment in infrastructure to produce and distribute, it is lacking capital-intensive factors of production (machines, seeds, breed, fertilizer), it is lacking the right institutional set to produce without fear of being robbed by rebels or the state itself, it is lacking farms big enough to be financially sound.
If there was no hope for food production in Africa, why would the Chinese invest so much in lands there in order to feed their own population?
Southern-Africa and northern sub-Saharan Africa, in particular the
strip across the continent along and north of the Sahel region in West
Africa, suffer the most
Pinguin, thx for the stats but they are not relevant (sorry some tech problem I can quote)
Stats are relevant, particularly when they address the topics we are discussing it.
Originally posted by Maharbbal
1. AIDS is unrelated
Of course it is related. It means SS Africa is not producing enough to feed its current population. It means each years that pass SS Africa is getting deeper into throuble.
Originally posted by Maharbbal
2. Relative decline in PIN/cap could mean that Africa does not export food anymore or that the value of the food produced as decline but not the quantity.
It means production is not catching up with the number of people.
Originally posted by Maharbbal
3. Africa is truly late in implementing best practice in most of its agriculture.
But to improve agriculture, you need money. Water and money are in very low supply in Africa.
Originally posted by Maharbbal
4. Water is a problem? True, but since Kenya and Ethiopia (pretty dry places) have become a new hub in horticulture, it shows that it is not an unsolvable issue.
Sure. But if Africa can’t feed its people today when they are “only” 600 millions, imagine what will happens when they reach 2, 4 or 8 billions, some years from now.
Originally posted by Maharbbal
Production in Africa is so low that it can only rise.
However, stats shows it keeps falling and falling without an end.
Originally posted by Maharbbal
It is lacking investment in infrastructure to produce and distribute, it is lacking capital-intensive factors of production (machines, seeds, breed, fertilizer), it is lacking the right institutional set to produce without fear of being robbed by rebels or the state itself, it is lacking farms big enough to be financially sound.
It is lacking of a population control policy as well.
Originally posted by Maharbbal
If there was no hope for food production in Africa, why would the Chinese invest so much in lands there in order to feed their own population?
Well, that’s an excelent example of what happened when populations go uncontrolled. China needs more food for its “huge” population of 1.2 billion people, because its land, (roughly the size of “useful” SS Africa) is not enough to feed well all of them well.
But China is a country blessed with rivers and civil engineering works! Just imagine what will happen in an SS Africa with 2 or 4 billion people living in a continent even less productive than today.
Southern-Africa and northern sub-Saharan Africa, in particular the strip across the continent along and north of the Sahel region in West Africa, suffer the most
The Sahara in otherwords.
yep no suprises here. The sahara has been increasing in size and surrounding areas are becoming desert.
This would be a genuine enviromental problem, but so are allot of deserts.
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot create polls in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum