Next king super power.

But you are talking economics again. Although China is much more centralized, it is certainly not democratic in the sense India is.

Its the very fact that China is so centralized thats the prblem.  State controled societies are not as effective as free ones in establishing a sound ecconomy.

I agree with Warhead. Democracy has failed India. The way the cities of Mumbai and Shanghai are developing brings out clearly the value of authoritarianism.

Mumbai is becoming a giant slum. Already slum-voters are in a majority. They effectively block any attempt at development. Shanghai has no such problem. From whatever reports I have heard, it is becoming the greatest city in the world.

Dictatorships are also better placed in foreign policy. China can be consistent in it's geo-political strategy. India's strategy changes everytime the govt changes. Some govts of course have know strategy at all.

China is better placed to take control of global oil. Once the US retreats, China will move in rapidly.

Curiously, India's current leftist Oil minister, collected funds for China during the Indo-China war of 1962. Need one say anything more about Indian democracy.

As an Indian rightwinger, Arun Shourie, said 'In India everyone can block everything, as a result, no one can do anything.'

It is really hard to know what the world will become within one century. We know that during the 70s and 80s, Japan was the number 1 economic power: the estate of the imperial palace in Tokyo was equivalent to the estate of whole California in early 1980s, and the top 10 world banks were occupied by Japanese banks in early 1990. Japan's miracle created an unseen public fear in US. Americans at one time bashed Japanese cars on the street, and burn their products as unemployment in US was so high due to the economic deficit to Japanese exports. Japanese economic success forced Westerns to rethink their model of market economy and even their democratic values. Famous academic books such as "Japan #1" from Harvard research center was widely praises and studied. In this book, the Harvard scholar wanted American government in 80s to adopt Japanese format of top-down economic policies in order to overcome long periods of economic stagnation under Reagan administration. The suspicious and fear of rise of Japan was most apparent in puplic expression in arts and media. Many movies were often included with futuristic cities based on the present day Tokyo, and their dominance in technological inventions (Blade Runner, Alien3), or basically a consipiracy of Japanese companies that posed threat to the security of USA (Rising Sun).

My political professor (University of Alberta), who was undergraduated study in Japanese politics in Japan, told us that most scholars in 80s believed Japan would no doubt took over US as number 1 economic superpower by early 1990s. But, as we know it now, Japanese stock market collapsed with stagnation in economy in 1990. Since than, they had not found a feasible solution for it, and the present Koizumi's reform was facing pressure from strong LDP conservative force. Despite all this, Japan was still the number 2 economic power in the world.

So, what is the next superpower? My political profs. believed it WOULD be China as we witnessed how China sustained itself during the Asian Economic crisis in 97, but it was really hard to predict whether China will overcome its serious domestic problems, notably corruption (it was really heart breaking, as millions of peasants were struggling for justice everyday).

Hey Tobodai and Evildoer,

    See my post above.  In brief: lack of democracy is precisely what led to the success of developing countries.  A controlled market, too, is necessary for a immature, weak economy in the face of the global machine.  This doesn't mean I'm saying political oppression is moral -- but this isn't the issue of this topic.  True democracy will not lead to rapid development.  Case in point, American, the crypto-fascist, democractic on the surface, regime, only became what it is today because of brilliant governmental manipulation of the people.

Peace,

Michael

11-25-2004

Hey Coolstorm,

    Keep in mind though that I'm not saying that lack of democracy is therefore a good thing.  If I were to choose between economic development and a happier population, I choose the latter.

Peace,

Michael

11-25-2004