Population of Hebrews during the biblical exodus

Edited for correction  

Edited by �ok ge�

Originally posted by Decebal I'm afraid I don't understand. How does an estimate of the Jewish population in Egypt in 300BC during the time of Ptolemy, help us with determining the Jewish population around the invasion of the Hyksos, that is about 1600BC?

Well, there is a calculation method to estimate the growth of a population taking all factors around it.

Anyhow, ignore what I posted earlier because it doesn't really help us determining the hebrew population. My bad.

Instead, I found a better way of estimating. Here is a link first:

http://www.sweenytod.com/rno/modules.php?name=News&file= article&sid=1150

It talks about the estimation of the Jewish population in various eras as The Jewish Agency's education department recently published a new study program that tries to provide answers to various questions concerning Jewish demography. The pamphlet contains estimates of the number of Jews who lived in the world during various historic periods, from the era of the Patriarchs to the present.  A doctor named Della Pergola, a program's scientific consultant, collected the numeric data from known written sources, the credibility of which is in some cases in doubt, to say the least. One striking case concerns the 13th century B.C.E., for which the estimate of 600,000 refers to the biblical figure related in the account of the Exodus from Egypt, which many scholars say never took place. Della Pergola says that setting aside the question of its historic truth, the biblical text contains an internal statistical logic.

"The bible speaks of 70 men who went down to Egypt with Jacob and of 600,000 men who left it 430 years later," he says. "That estimate is certainly possible demographically, if you take as a given that the average life span was 40 years and the number of children per household was six."

So, he is saying that 70 men going down with Jacob to meet Joseph in Egypt during the Hyksos reign and stayed there for 430 years, have produced up to 600,000 men! He says it is possible with calculation, I myself cannot find away of verifying his claim. I took an excel program sheet, put 70 men and 70 women, and as he said, I let them produce 6 children per family or 3 children per person then. After 40 years (as he says) the original 70 men & 70 women have passed away and their 280 offsprings also go with the rate of 3 children per person and like that in a cycle of every 40 years. Now without diseases and massacres, here is what I get if I were going to continue this for 430 years as he claims:

Population	cycle	Years passed
140.00	0	0
280.00	1	40
560.00	2	80
1,120.00	3	120
2,240.00	4	160
4,480.00	5	200
8,960.00	6	240
17,920.00	7	280
35,840.00	8	320
71,680.00	9	360
143,360.00	10	400
286,720.00	11	440

So after 440 years (close to his 430 years), the Jewish population that produces 6 children per family every 40 years has only reached 286,720 only!  That is still a big number to wonder in the desert of Sanai, but at least it is more reasonable than the figure of 3 million!

Remember that the 286,720 population figure did not take in factors diseases and prosecution by the Egyptions at all.

Anyone knows how to calculate that better maybe?

Edited by �ok ge�

Originally posted by Decebal By the way, why did you use 280 offspring. Shouldn't it be 420?

420 for the years? or you mean 420,000? I just did an excel sheet where every couple produces 6 children in 40 years (or 3/person) and die after 40 years. So, if year 1 you have 70 men with Jacob marrying 70 women to form 140 person, by 40 years, population will be 3*140 person minus the 140 person as they have passed away. Does it make sense now?

The figure 286,720 population after 440 years came out according to that calcuation. Notice that after 400 years it was 143,360 only. So, in the time of Exodus from Egypt, which is 430, probably they were closer to the figure of 286,720 more than the 143,360. 

You caculation rendered a close figure to my simple calcuation. You said 100,000 to 200,000. So, If I took both calculations we have, the Jewish population at the time of the exodus should be between 143,360  and 200,000. Personally, I think the idea of every couple producing 6 children for 430 yeras is obsured. I would prefer your calculation method or maybe give it a priority to Pergola's assumptions.

Edited by �ok ge�

While I don't believe that 70 people were so succesful reproductively, specially considering their claim of being enslaved and abused, as to produce 6 effective reproductive offsprings each generation, you miss, one point: that they were fertile since maybe 12 y.o. (let's say 14, not to exaggerate for women, who are the limiting factor in demografics, as a given man can have an almost unlimited number of offsprings).

So a woman giving birth since the age 14 till 40 could potentially have as much as 26 kids. This is of course an extreme case but it's been known of actual women having more than 30 children, so it's not impossible. Let's say half of the half: 25% of the extreme case: that makes 7.5 kids per woman, a little over the figure you managed.

But the actual important factor is the following. When a woman reached the average lifespan of 40, her older daughters were already twenty something and were therefore producing new generations already. So there's no diference of 40 years between generations but rather one of maybe 20-25. You have 4-5 generations per century. That makes the reproduction proccess (assuming optimal conditions) a lot faster. Actually almost double of faster. This is an actual demographic standard data: 4-5 generations per century assumed for most periods. In the modern Western world it is surely closer to 3 generations per century but this is not a standard historical case but rather an exception.

Due to the potential nature of the equation involved, the figures could well reach those given by the Bible of 6 million - at least in theory.

Yet, in practice, I would not accept that those figures are real at all but actually inflated by human imagination. This has nothing to do with any abstract demographic maths but with the Malthusian laws that constrict unlimited demic expansion: lack of resources and competition for them. Such a quickly growing population would have exausted quickly their resources and would have met the hard limits of lack of food and all types of resources.

Also, such a giant nation inside Egypt would have been, as you mention above, at least equal to that of Egyptians, if not even larger, and not just a small opressed minority. This fact would have not caused an exodus but a civil war and we would know about that from Egyptian sources. Yet there's no mention on any comparable problem.

The only things that can possibly relate to the developement of a Jewish nation inside Egypt are the Hycsos domination and the atempted monotheism of Akhenaton. Both have been often mentioned to explain better or worse the origin of the Hebrew nation or religion and/or the legend of the exodus.

If there's anything of truth on the "opening" of the Red Sea, it should mean that the Hebrews, as a Semitic nation with contacts in the eastern side of the sea, had access to some flotilla of ships that the Egyptians didn't have. The period at the desert must mean a rather harsh period of nomadism in the fringes of the desert, maybe supported by some local power that provisioned them (mana myth) in exchange of border defense.  Such a powerful and well organized sect (even if they were only a few tens of thousands warriors) should be a valuable asset (and a fearful foe) for any local power. Their temporary dificult situation only made them more dangerous, so paying a tribute or salary in exchange for military services would be probably a reasonable option.

Another problem in determining the population of the Exodus:  true slavery "seems to have been rare in Egypt before the Ptolemaic Period".

(source:  The Dictionary of Ancient Egypt, by Shaw/Nicholson, article "slaves", page 272)

Let us find man's original script that had written this inside the Bible!Than could be discussed all about it clear&short!Regards MGM!

I asked once foreign student from Iraq:How many wifes do you have?He answer me:How many you can support.Nick they have many wifes in case other had died or first one could not give the children!Many wifes in same time was for Rulers maybe.Why?It was suicidal idea:Wifes kill competition's children.Olimpia ordered murder of Alexander's half-brother as his competition on Throne!That's a war at home.
My grandma(Mother's mom) lost her man(Grandpa died after the war) and she grew up her kids very hard.In ancient times,brother&relative of dead one married the widow.Than family grows up also.Kids in house were:natives&foreigners!Half brothers&sisters! 


Edited by medenaywe - 05-Dec-2012 at 11:10