What if Archduke Ferdinand was never assasinated?

I saw a documentary on the 1st World War last night, and at one point they were describing the assasination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, which was the trigger for the Austro-Hungarian Empire attacking Serbia and thus starting the war. Apparently the assasination failed at first, since the Archduke's convoy, which was heading to a military inspection, was at first unsuccesfully attacked with a bomb. Afterwards the conspirators, notably Gavril Princip, were ready to go home, but on the way back from the military inspection, the Archduke's car took a wrong turn and by coincidence, Princip found himself in a position to shoot the Archduke, which he did.

What if the car never took the wrong turn? Would the war have started sooner or later? Would the alliances still be the same if the war started say 5 years later? Would the "Central Powers" (if they were the same) still have lost the war? Would there have been a revolution in Russia, and if so, would the Bolsheviks have taken over in the end? 

Yes, WWI was only a matter of time. Tensions were so tense between not only the individual countries but the alliances as well. The survival of the archduke would not have prevented the war, it would only have delayed the inevitable.

The Russian Revolution, or at least its scale, depended on the empire's entry into the war.

The United States would be in it no matter what. If not an actual fighting role, then you can be sure that they would be profiting from arms dealing. Any side the British Empire took would probably be the same side the United States took.

WWI would have happened anyway because of the alliances which allowed any petty pretext to drag all powers concerned into a struggle that each of those states heartily expected to win.

However, the more time that went by the more the advantage shifted to the allies. Russia was rapidly industrialising and grew every more militarily capable with that. France was also recovering her strength from after 1871. We forget that Russia lasted into the war almost until the end, once the military difficulties were alleviated the economy could be put back on track and the causes of revolution properly stifled. Perhaps if a good 5-10 years went by the allies would have been relatively strong enough to have won earlier, and without the support of the USA. The result would be a triumvirate of Russia, Britain and France holding the world in their grasp.

Bismarck pretty generally had the right idea and Wilhelm's attempts at domination were so much more clumsy. Mind you I wouldn't try to stimulate the US into too much Empire building if I were running Germany. While in the short term it may weaken Britain, over the longer term Germany would be digging her own grave.

Germany wanted a war and they wanted it before 1916 when they thought the Russian army would be unstoppable.  They had the doctrine that mobilization meant war.  The Kaiser threw out Bismarcks intelligent restraint in favor of gaining...gaining what....?  The only reason to build a fleet was to antagonize Britain, the only reason to reneg on the secret treaties with Russia was to antagonize Russia.  They pushed Austria to war against the Hunagarian parlements objections, they obsessed about their railroad to the middle east...they wanted to through their weight around, why?

The SPD was gaining int he polls, they wanted to avoid them winning too many elections and reducing the aristocracy and the monarchy, how to do this? Build a fleet, maek the army more powerful, attack your neighbors.  Germany started the war to solve domestic issues and use a post facto shopping list on everyone else.  If the archduke had not been assasniated the Germans would have found a way to start the war anyway.

Originally posted by Maju I think that WWI was going to happen anyhow: the rivalries between Germany and Britain for European hegemony, between France and Germany for nationalistic nonsenses and between Austria and Russia for control of the Balcans were already extremely strong. Only a more prudent German leadership could have maybe (only maybe) prevented that Russia and Austria clashed as they did. The war would still had happened anyhow but maybe Russia would have been in the other side and that could have given more advantage to Germany.

 

I'm not so sure about Britain wanting European hegemony, France, Russia and Germany yes, but Britain was always isolationist from Europe and only ever stepped in to stop any other country achieving hegemony.

 

 

Here's a list of the twists and turns that lead to WWI. Is should be called Pity Bismarck was Sacked, Or the Kaiaser, the Dick!

 

7 October 1879
Alliance Treaty Between Germany and Austria: the cornerstone of Bismarck's foreign policy and alliance system was concluded for 5 years, renewed quinquennially until 1918; terms: if either party attacked by Russia the other would come to their partner's aid with all possible forces; if attacked by some other power its partner would at least remain neutral; if the other power was aided by Russia, then each treaty partner was obliged to aid the other (note this condition for the 1914 case of Serbia being supported by Russia).

18 June 1881
The Alliance of the Three Emperors (Germany, Austria, Russia): concluded for 3 years, and renewed only once in 1884; terms: if one of the partners found itself at war with a fourth power, other than Turkey, the other two members of this alliance would remain friendly and neutral; if anyone of the partners went to war with Turkey they would discuss the eventual outcome in advance with the other two members of this alliance; the Austrian right to eventually annex Bosnia-Herzegovina when it wished was recognized; the principle of closure of the straits (the Dardanelles) was recognized and if Turkey violated this she would be considered at war with the aggrieved power; (other terms of less concern to us were also included); this treaty and its terms remained very secret.

20 May 1882
The Triple Alliance (Germany, Austria, Italy): concluded for 5 years and renewed quinquennially until 1915; terms: mutual aid in the event of an aggressive war waged by France on Italy or Germany; if any partner was engaged in a war with two or more other great powers the other two would come to her aid; if one partner was forced to make war on another power the remaining partners would maintain benevolent neutrality (note the terms which allowed Italy to stay out of the war in 1914).

12 February 1887
The First Mediterranean Agreement (Britain and Italy, subsequently adhered to by Austria [24 March] and Spain [4 May]) was an exchange of notes rather than a treaty; terms: maintenance of the status quo in the Mediterranean, including the Adriatic, Aegean, and Black Seas; British and Italian policies to be mutually supporting in Egypt and North Africa; the agreement(s) provided a basis for common action in the event of a disturbance in the Mediterranean by France or Russia.

20 February 1887
Renewal of the Triple Alliance with modifications in favor of Italy and with closer cooperation with Austria in the Orient, in spite of growing Italo-Austrian discords.

18 June 1887
Russian-German secret treaty known as The Reinsurance Treaty to replace the expiring Alliance of the three Emperors; terms: each power was to remain neutral in the event one of them became engaged in a war with another party, except in the case of an aggressive war by Germany on France or by Russia upon Austria (other terms of less concern to us were also included).

12 December 1887
The Second Mediterranean Agreement [also known as the Near Eastern Entente] (Britain, Austria, Italy); terms: the partners agreed to maintenance of the status quo in the Near East and to keep Turkey free of foreign domination, including maintenance of her rights in the Straits (the Dardanelles) and in Asia Minor; the powers to intervene if necessary.

28 January 1888
Military agreement between Germany and Italy; terms: provided for the use of Italian troops against France in the event of a Franco-Germany war.

3 February 1888
Publication of the 1879 Austro-German Alliance as a warning to Russia, where much nationalistic agitation against both Germany and Austria was going on.

18 March 1890
Dismissal of Bismarck as Chancellor by the young German Emperor, Kaiser Wilhelm II due in part to his dissatisfaction with Bismarck's handling of Russia and due in part to a desire on the part of the Kaiser for better relations with both Austria and Britain.

23 March 1890
German ministerial conference concludes with a decision to not renew the 1887 reinsurance treaty with Russia.

18 June 1890
Reinsurance Treaty with Russia allowed to lapse by Germany.

6 May 1891
Premature renewal of the Triple Alliance (Germany, Austria, Italy) and consolidation into a single treaty document (three separate treaties formed the original basis of the arrangement) due to French pressure on the Italians to join them against Germany and Austria.

4 July 1891
On a visit to London Kaiser Wilhelm II pressures Britain to join the Triple Alliance.

24 July 1891
French fleet visits Kronstadt. French and Russian agreement to oppose the Triple Alliance looms in the face of its premature renewal (see 6 May 91), the end of the Reinsurance Treaty (see 18 Jun 90), and the appearance of Anglo-German solidarity (see 4 Jul 91), all of which threaten to isolate both Russia and France.

21 and 27 August 1891
The August Convention between France and Russia; terms: it was no more than an agreement to consult in a crisis-but it was a starting point.

1 August 1892
French mission to Russia proposes a draft military convention, which the Russians are simply not yet ready to endorse.

15 July 1893
German military bill increased the size of the army and was badly received in both France and Russia. It acted as a stimulus to further Franco-Russian conversations.

27 December 1893 to 4 January 1894
Franco-Russian exchange of notes formalized the military convention negotiated eighteen months prior (see 1 Aug 92). This agreement, effectively The Franco-Russian Entente Cordiale, was classed as a military convention by France to avoid having to submit it (as required of a formal treaty) to the Chamber of Deputies (French national legislative body). The Entente Cordiale, the origin of the term for the Allied Powers in World War I, was as much a political as it was a military arrangement; terms: (1) in the event either partner were attacked by Germany, or by Germany's partners in the Triple Alliance (Italy against France or Austria against Russia), aided by Germany, then the other member of the Entente would attack Germany with all available forces; (2) in the event a member of the Triple Alliance mobilized, both France and Russia were committed to mobilization at once; (3) troop commitments and war plans were to be coordinated (note the commitment to mobilize as soon as any member of the enemy alliance mobilized, it is a key to events in 1914).

3 January 1896
A freebooter raid by local South Africans from the British Cape Colony against the South African Republic, the notorious Jameson Raid, was defeated by "Oom Paul" Krueger's Boer Commandos. Kaiser Wilhelm II sent a telegram ("the Krueger telegram") to congratulate the Republic (its intent was to pressure Britain into joining the Triple Alliance, but it back-fired) and it raised a storm of public protest in Britain leading to pressure on the Government to open negotiations with France and Russia. Her Majesty's Government perceived that it was increasingly isolated in a Europe rapidly dividing into contending alliance systems.

3 January 1896 to 29 May 1901
Britain spent five years after the Krueger telegram incident seeking friendly arrangements with both the Entente and Triple Alliance powers at various times and to varying degrees. In the final analysis, the settlement of outstanding colonial differences with France (the Fashoda Crisis of 18 Sep-3 Nov 1898) proved easier than swallowing the arrogance of the Kaiser.

18 May-29 July 1899
The First Hague Peace Conference established a permanent court of arbitration.

1901 .. return to top

29 May 1901
Lord Salisbury, British Prime Minister and Foreign Secretary, wrote an internal policy memorandum defending the British isolationist tradition and position; this ended negotiations with the Germans for an arrangement, which foundered in part on the German insistence upon Britain joining the Triple Alliance or not having any arrangement with Germany.

30 January 1902
In spite of Salisbury's policy position his government opened negotiations with Japan for a treaty in July 1901, and this was consummated six months later (30 Jan 02), ending Britain's "splendid isolation." The Anglo-Japanese Alliance was a politico-military treaty, concluded for 5 years; terms: each partner was to remain neutral in the event the other became involved in a war with a third party, unless another power came to the aid of that third party. In which case the other partner (Britain or Japan) to this treaty would come to the aid of its ally; neither was to enter into an arrangement with another power (Russia) without consultation with its ally.

28 June 1902
Renewal of the Triple Alliance for six years.

8 April 1904
The Anglo-French Entente was consummated after long years of negotiation with a complete settlement of all outstanding colonial differences. This opened the door to Anglo-French military conversations which continued up to the outbreak of war in August 1914.

December 1905-December 1906
The Royal Navy laid down [Dec 05], built [Dec 05-Oct 06], and commissioned [Dec 06] the first all big-gun battleship, H.M.S. Dreadnought, which revolutionized naval architecture (in spite of the fact that the U.S. Navy already had the U.S.S. South Carolina class approved in 1905, they were not laid down until December 1906, hence, the failure to complete in a timely manner gave Dreadnought the honors!). This opened up a frantic naval construction race between all of the great naval powers, since all of their ships were now obsolete. [HMS Dreadnought mounted 10x12-inch naval rifles in five dual barbettes, three on the centre line and one on each side of the forward structure, giving her an 8-gun broadside; she turned 21-knots max. with a radius of operations of 6600 miles at 10 kts and 5000 at 19 kts; her power plant was a hybrid in as much as she burned both coal and oil.]

17 January 1906
Anglo-French military conversations about cooperation in the event of a European war began at the Algeciras Conference (which opened on 16 January 1906); Anglo-Belgian military conversations also began soon thereafter.

15 June-18 October 1907
The Second Hague Peace Conference. The British tried and failed to get arms limitation agreements, opposed by the Germans in no small measure because they saw it as an effort to limit German naval growth, then perceived as a challenge to the absolute supremacy of the Royal Navy in European waters, as well as world-wide.

July 1907
Renewal of the Triple Alliance, in spite of complete Austro-German distrust of the intentions of Italy in the event of war.

31 August 1907
The Anglo-Russian Entente closed the loop involving all of the great powers of Europe in one or the other of the two great alliance systems; Anglo-Russian differences in Asia and the Middle East, with special reference to Persian (Arabian) Gulf issues were completely settled. This arrangement solidified the pre-war positions of the great powers. The Central Powers, as they came to be called, were Germany, Austria, and Italy, opposed by the Entente Cordiale of France, Russia, and Britain.

6 October 1908
At last Austria annexed Bosnia-Herzegovina, which enraged Serbia, Montenegro, and Russia. Germany, though not forewarned, loyally supported Austria, while France and Britain supported Russia. The lines were clearly being drawn in the sand.

4 December 1908
The London Naval Conference agreed among the ten naval powers in attendance on conditions of warfare at sea, including regulations governing blockades, contraband materials, convoys, prizes, and similar matters. It was never ratified.

1911 .. return to top

June-November 1911
The Second Moroccan Crisis aggravated differences between France and Germany over influence in Morocco, and precipitated a German show of force with the dispatch of the gunboat S.M.S. Panther to Agadir (1 July 1911).

28 September 1911-18 October 1912
The Tripolitan War between Italy and Turkey, in which Italy acquired the first elements of her overseas Empire by conquest of Turkish possessions in North Africa (hence the name of the war), the Mediterranean, and the lower Aegean. In this defeat lay the seeds of the Turkish desire to reform their military establishment and of the German military mission to Constantinople (Nov-Dec 1913) which would do so much to put the great powers of Europe on edge before the trigger for war occurred with the assassination of the Archduke on 28 June 1914.

16 July 1912
The Franco-Russian Naval Convention strengthened the 1893 military arrangements.

22 July 1912
The Royal Navy reduces the Mediterranean fleet by moving its battleships to the Home fleet to oppose the growing strength of the German High Seas Fleet. France soon after moved all of its battleship strength from Brest to the Mediterranean to oppose the growing naval strength of Italy and Austria. Thus France and Britain entered into active naval coordination and the Royal Navy effectively became committed to defense of the French coast against the German Navy in the event of war. British Mediterranean interests were to be protected, de facto, by the French Navy.

18 October 1912-30 May 1913
First Balkan War pitted Bulgaria, Serbia, and Greece against Turkey, weakened by the outcome of the Tripolitan War just settled. Turkey lost the war, territory, prestige, and respect for her military forces. The war was settled by the Treaty of London, negotiated 20-30 May 1913.

5 December 1912
The last renewal of the Triple Alliance, for six years from July 1914. Italy was agreeable to this because of a closer relationship with Austria than hitherto, and greater friction with the Anglo-French entente, chiefly over Italy's occupation of the Dodecanese Islands after the Tripolitan War, only recently ended. Italian bases there appeared a threat to Anglo-French naval dominance in the Eastern Mediterranean.

29 June-30 July 1913
Second Balkan War precipitated by a Bulgarian field commander attacking the Serbs and Greeks, without his government's knowledge or approval. Greece and Serbia were quickly joined by Roumania and Turkey. Bulgaria did not win this war! It was settled by the Treaty of Bucharest on 10 August 1913. Bulgaria lost most of Macedonia and other territory, some to each of her antagonists. In this defeat lay the seeds of Bulgaria joining the Central Powers in their war in the Balkans in World War I, whereby Bulgaria hoped to recover what she had lost in this struggle.

29 September 1913
The Treaty of Constantinople between Turkey and Bulgaria set up the arrangement which, coupled to German influence in both countries, would bring these two powers to the aid of the Central Powers once the First World War began.

November-December 1913
The Liman von Sanders Crisis. The Turks sought German aid in reforming their military which did so poorly in both the Tripolitan and First Balkan Wars. The Russians were incensed over the powers given to von Sanders (he was to command the First Corps at Constantinople), and the possible outcome of any effort to revitalize the Turkish Army. This was a point the British would have done well to heed before opting to land at Gallipoli in 1915!

1914 .. return to top

28 June 1914
The assassination of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand (heir apparent to the Austrian throne)and his wife at Sarajevo, Bosnia, by Gavrilo Princip. The latter was an agent of The Black Hand, the society properly named Union or Death, which was a terrorist organization aimed at recovering Bosnia-Herzegovina for the Serbian state. The Serbian Government had prior knowledge and did nothing to prevent the assassination. Europe was generally sympathetic to the Austrian desire for "satisfaction" from the Serbs; however, the treaty arrangements created an explosive situation. Refer back to the terms of the several treaties on issues such as involvement of second parties to a dispute, and conditions under which a supporting power must mobilize. Also keep in mind that fear of being isolated had driven many of the treaty arrangements, and failure to back an ally might well mean that at a later time a power would have to "go it alone" if they failed to aid their ally at this critical juncture.

23 July 1914
Austrian Ultimatum to Serbia with 24 hours to completely accept the terms.

24 July 1914
Russian policy emerged: Serbia must not be attacked and annexed by Austria.

25 July 1914
Austria assures Russia Serbian territory will not be annexed; Russia settles on first military measures (preliminary mobilization steps) against Austria, to be followed by war if Serbia is invaded. France assures Russia of support. The Serbians order mobilization and then reply evasively to Austria, which immediately orders mobilization against Serbia.

26 July 1914
The British Foreign Minister, Lord Grey, proposes an international conference to resolve the problem short of war. France and Russia accepted, though the latter preferred the direct negotiations with Austria which she (Russia) had already initiated. Austria refused to submit a matter of national honor to international arbitration, and Germany backed her.

27 July 1914
The French initiate preparations for war short of mobilization; in London the First Lord of the Admiralty, Winston Leonard Spencer Churchill, directs the Grand Fleet, then on summer maneuvers, not to disperse to home ports. Lord Grey supports Russia, and does nothing to restrain her preliminary military measures.

28 July 1914
Austria declares war on Serbia, and the game is afoot!

29 July 1914
Austria mounts her attack on Serbia, but it will be 12 August 1914 before Austria is ready to do more than shell Serbian positions. The Germans urge Austria to renew negotiations with Russia and they try to obtain British neutrality. Russia orders general mobilization, altered later in the day to mobilization against Austria only after Kaiser Wilhelm sent a conciliatory message to the Tsar, his cousin "Nikky."

30 July 1914
Austro-Russian talks resume, however, for technical reasons, the Russians renew the order for general mobilization, which confronted the Germans with a crisis of their own, given the nature of their war plans (The Schlieffen Plan).

31 July 1914
Germany declared the existence of a "state of threatening danger of war" and sent a 12-hour ultimatum to Russia demanding the cessation of military activities on the Russo-German border. Germany then asked Paris what its position would be in the event of a Russo-German war. Germany refused a British request that Belgian neutrality be respected. At 1700 hours Austria decreed general mobilization (which meant war with Russia).

1 August 1914
France replied to the German query of the day before that in the event of a Russo-German war she, France, would be "guided by her own interests." At 1555 hours France issued the mobilization orders. At 1600 hours Germany issued mobilization orders. However, Germany offered Britain a promise not to attack France if Britain could keep the French neutral! At 1900 hours, in the absence of a reply from Russia to the ultimatum of the day before, Germany declared war on Russia.

2 August 1914
Britain gave assurances to France that the Royal Navy would protect the French coast from incursions by the Germans in any form, the "moral obligation" growing from the naval conversations after 1904. The German invasion of Luxembourg began, and Germany submitted a demand to Belgium for a right of free passage over her territory, in return for a guarantee of territorial integrity.

3 August 1914
Germany declared war on France, on the pretext of frontier violations. German forces crossed the Belgian frontier.

4 August 1914
Britain declared war on Germany in the wake of the Belgian invasion, which allowed Lord Grey to make an effective case in the cabinet, parliament, and for the government to make it to the country.

6 August 1914
Austria declared war on Russia. Italy, consistent with German expectations, declared that Germany's declaration of war was not consistent with the terms of the treaty under which Italy would be required to enter the war in support of her erstwhile allies. Italy thus declared her neutrality, which would last until she entered the war on the side of the Entente on 23 May 1915 (and then only against Austria, though she would later be forced into war against first Turkey, then Bulgaria, and finally Germany).

 

http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/mowbray/gw-pre.htm

I kind of think Germany's desire for colonies in Africa was indicative of it's demise. Despite as you say being more competitive than Britain it chose a 19th century road of colonialism rather than a 20th road of capitalism, it's chosen path was an anachronism, even the British empire was realising this and begining to disband the empire.

Edited by Paul

Originally posted by Paul I kind of think Germany's desire for colonies in Africa was indicative of it's demise. Despite as you say being more competitive than Britain it chose a 19th century road of colonialism rather than a 20th road of capitalism, it's chosen path was an anachronism, even the British empire was realising this and begining to disband the empire.

Actually Britain and France were much more active in the colonial race, that's largely why they won. Germany didn't seem to see the importance of colonies so it was left behind (lack of navy also weighted probably).

Before the creation of international trading schemes as EU and WTO, colonies were essential for capitalism: they provided tax-free raw materials that otherwise would be more expensive or maybe even unavailable at all. Colonialism and Capitalism are not opposed but rather synchronized. The USA could pass without many colonies because it had them in shape of de facto proctetorates in all Latin America. But Germany, while being the largest and fastest growing economic power of Europe, was lacking of those strategic elements.

So, in fact, Germany didn't choose the path of colonialism vs. capitalism as you say, but rather comitted the error of ignoring the colonialist facet of capitalism and was overpowered by France and Britain. Britain particularly had a particularly profitable and undisputed colony in India but it also got the share of the lion in Africa and prevented the partition of China because it would not benefit from it. Britain was so powerful mostly due to its colonies (and specially India).