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Possibility of world war in asian theatre?

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Imperial Koguryo View Drop Down
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  Quote Imperial Koguryo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Possibility of world war in asian theatre?
    Posted: 11-May-2005 at 16:27

with the rise of right-wing nationalits in japan coyzing up with the US, and the recent close cooperation between korean (north and south) and china, the power structure seems to be really shifting in the region. i forsee a power struggle between china and japan, especially with the importance of the korean peninsula as a geographical and strategical point...

My predictions on the next war are merely predictions, and the alliances are the following:  china, north korea, south korea, russia vs. usa, UK, japan, india.

im leaving out the potential other smaller players and other euro nations, as i do not know where they will stand in the future, except UK.........what does everyone else think?

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  Quote Mperor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11-May-2005 at 19:35

Uhhh I really don't think that India will side with the US side...

I think we should also consider the fact that China's being more and more popular among Asian countries thanks to its new diplomatic policy installed by the new generation of leaders.

Personally, I'm not wishing for a war. But I believe that China, and especially the two Koreas (and all countries that were victim of the Japanese invasion during WWII), have all their rights to criticize Japan, a country that refuses to face history. And it's now asking permission to actually increase its influence in many ways. That's not really acceptable IMO.

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  Quote Imperial Koguryo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11-May-2005 at 20:00

India (and china for that matter) have been very skeptical of each other. i mean they are rising powers, and attracting companies all over the world, especially in the technology sector... as the two most populated country become more industrialized and modernized, they will use more power, thus the search for more power.....the two countries are watching each other rise, and the search for natural resource will undoubtedly turn into a dispute. i mean, COME ON, they are bordering neighbors of course...oh and of course they already have border disputes...

also, recently, indias leader met with japan's prime minister, which implicitly showed that india was willing to form an alliance with japan if it was forced to. it was a call for china to watch out. i can already see a pot about to boil.



Edited by Imperial Koguryo
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  Quote Mperor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11-May-2005 at 20:19

I thought the Sino-Indian Relationship was moving towards reconcialiation? The two countries actually ARE moving towards reconcialiation... No?

http://washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20050411-041545-9796 r.htm

?

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  Quote King Chulalongkorn Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11-May-2005 at 20:21

A war in the region would be catastrophic, undoubtable. But to think that India, would join the US in a war is ridiculous considering Pakistan is an ally of China's. It would be strategically unwise for India to do so. Russia side with North Korea and China? LOL.

Any war China will incite will result in her capitulation. The world watches China and I can say that we Thais wouldnt mind China smithering in ashes....

Kha Wora Phutthachao Nop Phra Phumiban Bunya Direk
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  Quote Imperial Koguryo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11-May-2005 at 20:47

why is russia siding with china sound so hard to believe?

people dont get food, they want commmunism back. period.

and yes, china and india are getting closer, but look what lies ahead...search for/ dispute of territory (be it on water or land) for resources...and the dispute for resources will escalate as it becomes more scarce...the preservation and self-suffiency is going to be the real big reason...think about it, india and china = biggest population = energy consumption will rise = they will want to preserve their state by finding ways to get to resourcs....they are neighbors, and they will start to look for ways near them, and they are border countries...India and china are 2 rising global powers, how will they be able to make an alliance under such pressure (from dispute with taiwan and japan)? or how will india not be drawn into this presumed world war? it would be wrong to say that india can stay out of the vortex's of war, for a global power cannot neglect international relations as such.

the reasons of war were first religion, for example 30 years' war (and no im not going all the way back to first civilization), then power/glory and buffer states, and the new age for the reason for war will be disputes over the rights of resources.



Edited by Imperial Koguryo
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  Quote sinosword Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11-May-2005 at 23:11
The extensive war will unlikely happen at a situation like today, especially between nuke countries. There might be some brushfires, but with high tech.
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  Quote MengTzu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12-May-2005 at 03:31

Hey Imperial Koguryo,

    First of all, Imperial Koguryo, any topic speculating war and destruction along national line often easily excites nationalistic feelings.  (This has been true even in topics about hypothetical scenarios about the past, like Roman empire v. Han's China type of topic.)  My advice is to word things carefully, such as giving insights about how situations in Asia are agitated, without actually having to speculate a possible a war.  Again, it's because expressly suggesting such a scenario can excite nationalistic feeling, a constant source of contention and disputes in this forum, and sadly, a LOT of it comes from the Asian board.

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  Quote MengTzu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12-May-2005 at 03:32

Hey King Chulanlokorn,

    your statement about Thais' wishing China to smither to ashes can be interpreted as racist on two fronts: it might imply stereotypes that Thais as hateful (this is not acceptable even if you yourself is Thai) and might imply wishes destruction to China.  So this is your warning.

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  Quote Elanjie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12-May-2005 at 07:23

 

 King Chulalongkorn is passionate and always being busy alternating.

 I don't mind whether he praise or insult China. I 've got used to it.

 So , where are you from ,King Chulalongkorn? Are you boy or girl? I 'm curious. 

  

 

   

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  Quote Elanjie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12-May-2005 at 07:47

  The topic is real senstive, but if all we discuss  peacefully would bring many good threads and worthy ideas. In fact , being always absorbed into political arguments is not my favourite.

  In some respects, the issue of Korea's reunification is binded with the issue of Taiwan. Why, for behind both issues there stands a Superpower.

  If not the korean war, PRC would have already unified China in the 1950's. 

  To the north korea, if not U.S...

  To the south korea , if not China...

etc... 

 

  But it seems now all things are coming to be better! I believe!

  

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  Quote jiangweibaoye Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12-May-2005 at 11:59

To All,

I don't really think there will be a war.  The economies of Japan, Korea, China, Taiwan, etc... are so interconnected today that it is almost like biting one hand.  Just look at the latest trade numbers between the countries I just mentioned. 

That said, there are some things that will throw it all off.

1.  North Korea goes nuclear.  If that happens, Japan & US will want to bring it to the UN to impose sanctions and possibly a naval blockade.  China & South Korea opposes such action.  This ugly scenario will drag everybody into this. 

2.  Taiwan declares independence.  Unlikely given the recent visit of the Nationalist chief to China.  But if it were to happen, that will prompt the Chinese to prepare for a D-Day like invasion and will drag the Japanese and the US Navy into this.  Probably might be the biggest naval battle of all time.  Another ugly scenario which will have no winners.

Side note, Kozumi's annual trip to that war shrine to pay respects to the Japanese war hero does not help the situation, but it is not a dealbreaker.

The current dispute between Japan and Korea over that small island (cannot remember the name) is also a minor problem but not a dealbreaker.

Russia is a shell of its former self.  They can at best give lip service.  India is to preoccupied with Pakistan.  I also think India & China realize that making peace is much more profitable than making war (the smart thing).  The greatest power a nation can exude is economic power. It raises living standards of all and all in the surrounding nations. 

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  Quote battleaxe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12-May-2005 at 20:03
I must say, the possibility of S.Korea siding with China in a war is pretty absurd. Maybe it'll break its American alliance and decide to stay neutral. But fight WITH China against the US etc? Heck, it doesn't like China THAT much. Why would Korea do that.
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  Quote Imperial Koguryo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12-May-2005 at 21:19

Originally posted by battleaxe

I must say, the possibility of S.Korea siding with China in a war is pretty absurd. Maybe it'll break its American alliance and decide to stay neutral. But fight WITH China against the US etc? Heck, it doesn't like China THAT much. Why would Korea do that.

if a war broke out, korea has to side with SOMEONE...if they dont, well then the penininsula will STILL be a battleground, so even if they were neutral, they would get war torn...

and plus, the roh administration is seeking ways to slowly rift its alliance with the US...and ties are getting closer with china...korea's enemy's enemy is korea's best friend.

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  Quote I/eye Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13-May-2005 at 02:57
Korea might distance itself a little bit from U.S. to get out of its shadow, but it will never have U.S. as the enemy
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  Quote baracuda Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13-May-2005 at 06:34
Korea has more 'friends' than it might seem in first glance.. so does a lot of countries in the region.. the war will depend on the possibility of some rogue leader that doesnt care about influence of these 'allies'.. so far it doesnt seem that it is possible at all.
Too much to loose, than to gain..

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  Quote Elanjie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13-May-2005 at 08:18

North Korea is gradually  to be more open and taking some reform policies in economy, cooperations between SK and China. Being a chinese, I have much sympathy with them, for in the forenight of China's reform and open, we encoutered  serious worse circumstances. Fortunitely we got through and did make some progress.

We know to  be patient enough.But some others seems not willing to see that, because they are more interest in their own profits or somekind "strategy" but not concerning  how the people in that area feel. Pressures won't work but bring more resistance. 

 No permanent friends, from 1969 to 1980's, Soviet Union had been the most dangerous enemy of China, worse than U.S, in the past 150 years chinese had been struggling for our real indepence which suffered too much.

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  Quote jiangweibaoye Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13-May-2005 at 10:53

Imperial,

This question is addressed to you but also to anybody who is Korean.

What do you think South Korea would do if the US & Japan does bring up the nuclear situation to the UN.  US & Japan want to impose an embargo (which includes making China stop shipment of food and oil to North Korea) & a naval blockade. What would South Korea do if they do get the embargo & the naval blockade passage passed in the UN?

I though about it, it is like caught between a rock and a hard place.  Very difficult call.

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  Quote King Chulalongkorn Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15-May-2005 at 01:22
Originally posted by MengTzu

Hey King Chulanlokorn,

    your statement about Thais' wishing China to smither to ashes can be interpreted as racist on two fronts: it might imply stereotypes that Thais as hateful (this is not acceptable even if you yourself is Thai) and might imply wishes destruction to China.  So this is your warning.

As a Thai Marine and a military man myself, I KNOW what the RTAF wants and what we think about; China although may be on our 'good side' at the present, but the military holds the PRC with complete and total speculation. They are a threat and as a MARINE I am expectant of it.

 

Dont take my nationalism as an offense, it was not directed to you.

 

SEMPER FI!

Kha Wora Phutthachao Nop Phra Phumiban Bunya Direk
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  Quote King Chulalongkorn Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15-May-2005 at 01:25
Originally posted by Imperial Koguryo

why is russia siding with china sound so hard to believe?

people dont get food, they want commmunism back. period.

and yes, china and india are getting closer, but look what lies ahead...search for/ dispute of territory (be it on water or land) for resources...and the dispute for resources will escalate as it becomes more scarce...the preservation and self-suffiency is going to be the real big reason...think about it, india and china = biggest population = energy consumption will rise = they will want to preserve their state by finding ways to get to resourcs....they are neighbors, and they will start to look for ways near them, and they are border countries...India and china are 2 rising global powers, how will they be able to make an alliance under such pressure (from dispute with taiwan and japan)? or how will india not be drawn into this presumed world war? it would be wrong to say that india can stay out of the vortex's of war, for a global power cannot neglect international relations as such.

the reasons of war were first religion, for example 30 years' war (and no im not going all the way back to first civilization), then power/glory and buffer states, and the new age for the reason for war will be disputes over the rights of resources.

 

Do you read any articles on Indian militancy and Indian diplomatic litigation at all? If you havent noticed, India and Russia are allies; whereas Pakistan and China are allies. If India attacks Pakistan, China will aid Pakistan (but I am totally hesitant since China didnt do ANYTHING during the Indi-Paki Kargil War but sit and watch..LOL) In that sense, If China attacks or offenses India, be sure to see Russia join and aid its Indian ally.

Asia already is preparing for a new world order..and a conflict with India and China is TOTALLY unwise for anyone's part be it Korea, Japan, China or USA.

 

Cheers!

Kha Wora Phutthachao Nop Phra Phumiban Bunya Direk
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