World Affairs Prediction Game

Has learning history given you insight into how the world works? Does this makes you good at assessing and predicting current international events? Do you think you are good at it? Are you willing to bet on that?

Now you can; virtually if you play this game, of course.

Make predictions on what international events will happen within the next week. Offer odds to entice people to bet on it. Accept bets from other players. At the end of the round, a game master tabulates the results and declares who is the round�s winner, the best international affair guru from AE.

Let me illustrate: you predict that U.S. will close the Mexican border within the next week. You are so sure of this that you give 3:1 odds�this is, you will give three virtual dollars if you are wrong for every virtual dollar that the other player accepts to risk. A person accepts your offer betting 20 virtual dollars. If at the end of the round you are correct, the game master will adds 20 points to your total and takes 20 points away from the other person.

Remember, only international affairs predictions qualify. Let�s focus on diplomatic, political, military, or economic actions or statements.

When you are ready, post your bets on this thread.

Here are the rules of the game:

All players start with $1000 virtual dollars starting at their first participation. Only integer bets are allowed.

Every player donates $10 per round for a jackpot to give to the person with the top score at the end of the round.

To place a bet, write a post describing your prediction, give your odds, and write in uppercase letter the word: OFFER. If you want to stop taking bets, repost your offer with the word CLOSED added to it. A player can only have one open offer per prediction.

If you want to accept a bet offer, give the name of the player, quote his post, write the amount that you are betting, and write in uppercase letters the word: ACCEPT. As long as the offer is open, all accept posts are binding to the two parties.

All deals are final. The deadline to make, accept, or close an offer is Tuesday at 11:59 P.M. GMT.

After assessing if the predictions happened or not, I will tabulate the results and publish them on Wednesday.

Originally posted by Mixcoatl A risky one: I'll bet 10:1 that Blair will win the British elections tomorrow.

I'll ACCEPT. I bet 10.

Originally posted by Mixcoatl A risky one: I'll bet 10:1 that Blair will win the British elections tomorrow.

I ACCEPT and match hugoestr's 10.

MIxcoatl, the way that I understand it, is that you say that you Blair will win the election.

If Blair keeps his position, which is very probable, I and Catt will give you each 10 virtual dollars next Wednesday. If for some reason Blair loses, then you will have to give both of us 100.

OFFER: Iran will announce that they will give up their nuclear program. Odds: 20:1

Originally posted by hugoestr OFFER: Iran will announce that they will give up their nuclear program. Odds: 20:1

I'll take that offer and bet you 100, even though I'd be ecstatic if you were correct.

Edited by Genghis

Forgot about this. Couple of questions hugoestr, it ends tomorrow so how do deadlines on placing work.. and what happens if you eventually go in the hole?

Let me answer the question that which I already had answered, but somehow didn't get posted:

The deadline is 11:59 GMT. Any deal after this time is voided.

If one goes below zero, one get's $500 to keep playing, but gets a start next to its name to indicate that they have lost it all. By paying $1000 to the pot, one gets to have the start erased.

If you think that this will happen within the next week, give odds, Jalisco Lancer.

1 Offer: Lopez Obrador becomes PRD's presidential candidate defeating Cardenas.
Odds 2:1 I bet 20 USD.

2 Offer: Lopez Obrador wins the presidential elections in 2006.
Odds 2:1

3 Offer: Mexico will become more oriented towards Brazil, Argentina, Spain, Venezuela and Cuba.
Odds 2:1

4 Offer: The USA will recognize a left goverment in Mexico. US policies towards Latin America are merely focused on accusing Venezuela and Cuba.
Odds 2:1

Edited by Jalisco Lancer