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Medieval Europe Stopping Mongols Speculation

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  Quote AlphaS520 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Medieval Europe Stopping Mongols Speculation
    Posted: 15-Jul-2012 at 13:51
Who do you think in Europe, are able to stand up against the Mongols?
What if Subutai never did died, nor did the Khan, and the Khan ordered Subutai to conquer all of Europe? 
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  Quote Toltec Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16-Jul-2012 at 03:06
Judging by their performance against the Hungarians, nothing much could stop them, the French and Germans would have used identical tactics, charging heavy cavalry.

However England would have been safe,, the glue on Mongol bows was water soluble so they couldn't fight in the rain.

Edited by Toltec - 16-Jul-2012 at 03:09
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  Quote benzin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16-Jul-2012 at 06:17
I think they wouldnt be able to occupy europe. They had problems occupying forts and castles. In Hungary they oouldnt invade the western part of the country, and they coudnt take most fortified cities. Also they had supply problems on the occupied territories from 1241.
The main reason why they havent been stopped in 1241 is that Hungarian nobles didnt take the treat enough seriously.
In 1285 when the mongols arrived back they met a more ready hungarian army wich beated them back from Pest to Transylvania, where with the help of the Szeklers massacred the rest of the mongol army. They havent attacked Hungary for 400 hundred years after this defeat.

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  Quote AlphaS520 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16-Jul-2012 at 09:31
Originally posted by Toltec

However England would have been safe,, the glue on Mongol bows was water soluble so they couldn't fight in the rain.


Good theory, but it doesn't exactly rain everyday now does it. Assuming they did attacked in spring, in a rainy day, and in the process in hunting for logistics, they realized that their bows doesn't work. Sabutai would either retreat, or stay and improvise.

Now the 200,000, well, it should be around 50,000 to 100,000, as England is an island, they need a navy. And at that time, England wasn't the king of the seas, yet. Mongols are said to be also very skilled with lances and scimitars.

They could come back and attack in summer or autumn, like they purposely attacked Russian in winter, so the frozen ice enables the cavalries to transverse faster.


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  Quote AlphaS520 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16-Jul-2012 at 09:40
Originally posted by benzin

I think they wouldnt be able to occupy europe. They had problems occupying forts and castles. In Hungary they oouldnt invade the western part of the country, and they coudnt take most fortified cities. Also they had supply problems on the occupied territories from 1241.
The main reason why they havent been stopped in 1241 is that Hungarian nobles didnt take the treat enough seriously.
In 1285 when the mongols arrived back they met a more ready hungarian army wich beated them back from Pest to Transylvania, where with the help of the Szeklers massacred the rest of the mongol army. They havent attacked Hungary for 400 hundred years after this defeat.



But what if, Mongols ignored Song China, and decided to concentrate their full attention on Europe? By the time the Mongols came back, they were starting to become unorganized, this is the biggest factor. With Sabutai, however, 2 years before the invasion of Hungary, have scouted most of the area.

An organized Mongol army have proven more to be experts at siege warfare, especially an army commanded by Sabutai. In siege warfare in Song China is a bit more complex then in Europe, the actually create nets to catch stones from the Mongol trebuchet, forcing a different approach, while facing fire lances, fire arrows, and the first mortar, created and used in Song China.

Imagine if all the hundreds of thousands of Mongols and mercenaries were to ignore China, but to completely concentrate on Europe, it would be interesting to see. A organized Mongol army is capable in taking every fortresses and castles, and they even spread diseases by launching in dead infested corpse.

The Mongols actually haven't taken Europe as seriously, as they have poured most of their forces and resources into Song China, imagine if they did?
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  Quote Nick1986 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16-Jul-2012 at 11:53
The Mongols would excel in open battle but they'd have a difficult time trying to capture castles. They'd eat knights for breakfast but meet their match in the English archer who's longbow outranged their horse-bows
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  Quote AlphaS520 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16-Jul-2012 at 12:05
Originally posted by Nick1986

The Mongols would excel in open battle but they'd have a difficult time trying to capture castles. They'd eat knights for breakfast but meet their match in the English archer who's longbow outranged their horse-bows


A organized Mongol army have never failed in capturing castles, as they have proven so many time, especially an army commanded by Sabutai. They usually pillage the country side, but leave a lot alive, so that the alive peasants retreat to the castle, meaning that now the castle is much more packed, and the supplies would now be even scares. They could starve the castle out, or sometimes, they launch dead infested corpse into the castle, and spread diseases.

They adapted from China, a barrel that explodes or immediately burst into fire (filled with gunpowder), this is used on trebuchet to be launched into castles. Simple siege equipment such as ladders or siege towers, these are operated by captured prisoners, so the Mongols can suffer less casualties.

The Longbow doesn't outrage the Mongol Composite Bow.
According to wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_longbow#Range_and_penetration

"The range of the medieval weapon is not accurately known, with estimates from 165 to 228 m (180 to 249 yds). Modern longbows have a useful range up to 180 m (200 yd). A 667 N (150 lbf) Mary Rose replica longbow was able to shoot a 53.6 g (1.9 oz) arrow 328 m (360 yd) and a 95.9 g (3.3 oz) a distance of 249.9 m (272 yd).[23] A flight arrow of a professional archer of Edward III's time would reach 400 yds. It is also well known that no practice range was allowed to be less than 220 yds by order of Henry VIII.[24]"

Now with the Mongol bow, it shows that it out ranges a Longbow by around 200M - 300M.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongol_bow

"An inscription on a stone stele was found near Nerchinsk in Siberia: "While Chinggis (Genghis) Khan was holding an assembly of Mongolian dignitaries, after his conquest of Sartaul (Khwarezm), Yesüngge (the son of Chinggis Khan's brother) shot a target at 335 alds (536 m)."


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  Quote benzin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17-Jul-2012 at 03:40
Alpha : They probably ran out of fire equipment on their european campaign, they didnt occupy around 160 forts and castles only in Hungary.
Its possible that they would have been able to run trough europe and burn everything, but the question is if they would be able to hold their power, and create an empire in europe I truly dont think. They would have to split to various directions, against so many enemies in europe, and I dont think that the european folks joines the mongolian army just like it happened in central asia.
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  Quote AlphaS520 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17-Jul-2012 at 03:53
Ran out of fire equipment? How exactly do you think that works? 

I think you, among the others, have a misconception in the views of the Mongols. The Mongols don't run through Europe and burn everything, they have really advanced siege warfare, the most advanced in fact (not arguably). They started of by accumulating the siege engines and gunpowder of China, then decided afterwards to use the counter-weight trebuchet or other designs throughout their campaigns, this wasn't used in Europe, as they were dealing with Song China, they were trying to figure out how exactly are they going to defeat them, and it's quite ironic in a siege warfare to use trebuchets if Song China is going to catch your stones with nets.

My questions isn't exactly if they are able to maintain their empire now is it, why would you change the question, and... "but the questions is"...

"and I don't think that the European folks joins the Mongolian army just like it happened..."

They actually did, the Mongols recruited mercenaries in Europe, or around the middle-east, to modify their army. They established a decent amount of vassals, the vassals all agreed to the terms (which included military support), states that disagree are completely destroyed.
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  Quote Toltec Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17-Jul-2012 at 05:35
Originally posted by Nick1986

The Mongols would excel in open battle but they'd have a difficult time trying to capture castles. They'd eat knights for breakfast but meet their match in the English archer who's longbow outranged their horse-bows



The Mongol Invasion of Europe predates the English longbow period. England used a poor man's version of French tactics back then. It was the age of the Welsh longbow however and I wouldn't rate the Mongols chances when riding through valleys being rained on by longbow fire from the mountain tops with no way to fight back.

Edited by Toltec - 17-Jul-2012 at 05:45
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  Quote Toltec Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17-Jul-2012 at 05:41
Originally posted by AlphaS520


Originally posted by Toltec

However England would have been safe,, the glue on Mongol bows was water soluble so they couldn't fight in the rain.
Good theory, but it doesn't exactly rain everyday now does it. Assuming they did attacked in spring, in a rainy day, and in the process in hunting for logistics, they realized that their bows doesn't work. Sabutai would either retreat, or stay and improvise.Now the 200,000, well, it should be around 50,000 to 100,000, as England is an island, they need a navy. And at that time, England wasn't the king of the seas, yet. Mongols are said to be also very skilled with lances and scimitars. They could come back and attack in summer or autumn, like they purposely attacked Russian in winter, so the frozen ice enables the cavalries to transverse faster.


It was actually a joke, but many joke have vein of truth in them. The Mongols unlike all other tribal people did campaign in the winter, which could be explained by winter having no rain. Similarly the Mongol Empire noticeably bypassed the parts of Asia with rainy and humid climates. Maybe experiences in the rainy and humid parts of China taught them this lesson.

As for the UK the Autumn and summer are the rainy times of year, along with spring and winter that is.
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  Quote benzin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17-Jul-2012 at 12:43
Alpha : Europe would unite against the Mongols if they had reach the german or venetian lands. The pope would constantly calls for crusades in each christian country. If the mongols dont do it fast I think they dont have a chance, they would be less and less in numbers, until they occupy the last city in portugal, and in scotland there wouldnt be much mongol left on earth. wouldnt be much european either..

Whatever you say the mongols had problems occupiing forts on mountenous terrain in europe, and there is quite a lot of it in the 13th century, so it certainly wouldnt be an easy campaign for them.
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  Quote AlphaS520 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17-Jul-2012 at 13:02
Europe uniting against the Mongols? You know, at the height of the Mongol Invasion, Europe doesn't really care about uniting, examples are England and France.

It's actually proven in historical records that the crusade called by the Pope of all the countries that belong to Christendom, can actually be viewed as a joke. Not only a few failed, well, most countries failed to actually start out their on serious crusade, but the furthest, isn't exactly much...

A simple quote from Wikipedia to show you what I remembered about the crusades.

"Richard was far more concerned with his more extensive French lands. After all his preparations he had an army of 4,000 men-at-arms, 4,000 foot-soldiers and a fleet of 100 ships."

Would you explain the reason for such a tiny army?
France actually did helped a bit, and sent their Templar Knights (not much) to help, they didn't stand a chance, they got slaughtered, as they were deceit and killed.

Hmm... Why use Scotland as an example? If Mongol successfully occupy England, do you seriously think Scotland will respond, the history of Scotland and England in that time is a bit more hostile then some of the rest, hence, the Normans.

And why would you use Portugal as your example? Do you seriously think they would help the rest of Europe? You theory doesn't seem to work, as Europe isn't as united as you think, and the crusades, they weren't taken seriously.

You can't compare the Mongol horde against a organized Mongol army.
A organized Mongol army never have any problems when capturing forts, a bit more problem in Song China, however. Who says mountainous terrain would make it more difficult for them? Although their mounted archers would be less efficient, Sabutai would surely be full of joy, for the fact that he can choose the highest mountains to command his army, and can set a lot of prepared ambushes due to the fact that he can hide his troops.

A organized Mongol army don't just come and kill, they plan. Perhaps the image of the Mongols in your head are more of the Golden Horder type.
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  Quote benzin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17-Jul-2012 at 14:07
I think you live in a dream world of undefeatable mongol terminators.

Noone is undefeatable, history proves.

Its not the same situation if they attack your country then going to Jerusalem or whatever, thousand miles away to attack a city you dont belong to, so much more would join a crusade.

To be honest many historician doubts nowadays that the mongols turned back because of the death of Ögedei.


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  Quote AlphaS520 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17-Jul-2012 at 15:11
Originally posted by benzin

I think you live in a dream world of undefeatable mongol terminators.

Noone is undefeatable, history proves.

Its not the same situation if they attack your country then going to Jerusalem or whatever, thousand miles away to attack a city you dont belong to, so much more would join a crusade.

To be honest many historician doubts nowadays that the mongols turned back because of the death of Ögedei.




You're starting to get personal here.
I would appreciate if you try to counter my arguments instead.
The thing you need to understand is, an organized Mongol army (I'll make certain words bold to make it more clear) have never (in historical records, a organized Mongol army commanded under a suitable Khan or general was never defeated anywhere in Europe) been defeated in Europe, especially an army commanded by Sabutai, which is what started my thread.

The whole point of the crusade is that there are duties that all Christendom must carry out, to safe guard their "rightful" place and to maintain their religious status. The whole point, is not to unite and defend against an unknown force who just happened to appeared in the East and thundered throughout Europe.

I assume, that hopefully, you would know that at first, the Mongols were under the impression that the Pope was the leader of Europe, however, pretty soon they realized how Europe dislike the idea of cooperating together, and that it was similar to the Warring States in China. When the Mongols first annihilated the middle-east, the Pope claimed that it was "God's wrath". until their own was attacked.

Most historians never doubt that the Mongols retreated because the Khan died, in fact, I would want you to know that the Mongols didn't just retreated in Europe, but also in other locations.

Not only is that, but the fraction of the army used in Europe in comparison to their entire conquest, was one of the smallest, and with most success. They have also defeated combined forces of the European army. Europe was poor and there was no point in attacking, when clearly in China, they are much more wealthier.

The idea of "barbaric" Mongols is to hide European humiliation. Europe could be considered Barbaric by the Mongols. You should also know that in Marco Polo's opinion, he viewed the Mongols as the top civilization, hardly barbaric.

Your description of the Mongols are obviously the unorganized barbaric type, such as the Golden Horde.

I would prefer if you debate after you study the history of the Mongols more precisely.
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  Quote benzin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17-Jul-2012 at 17:27
I try to explain last time.

"Who do you think in Europe, are able to stand up against the Mongols?"
Surely no European force would be able to do that alone.


What if Subutai never did died, nor did the Khan, and the Khan ordered Subutai to conquer all of Europe?
As I said if they want to conquer ALL Europe they have to defeat endless numbers of huge armies of several european nations/city states.
Even they no matter how good they are will suffer constant losses with each battle. Just look on a map of the 13th century europe how many forces they would have to fight against, and they are not that far from each other. Thats why I mentioned Portugal and Scotland as the end's of europe, if the mongols had to battle for every single fort of europe at the end they have no army left.

And the defeated nations as much the main forces goes far from them will start rebelling, like many tribe did. The empire will grow too large and its going to be impossible to control every piece of it, its going to collapse, like always did in history. Thats what gonna happen in my opinion.
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  Quote AlphaS520 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17-Jul-2012 at 17:55
Yes, they will need to defeat a lot of armies, however, it is not endless (I thought this would be a bit obvious), and most armies they fight against will not be huge.

Now, let's us see.
After a few feeble attempts from Hungary or Russia etc To defend against the Mongols, no organized army exist to take up the task anymore, until the organized army of Mongols left. In so many conquest of the Mongols, they have never seen "endless" armies, as they fight one, they annihilate one, they never see it again. Unless of course, it's just stubborn unorganized resistance that doesn't stand a chance, as if the original army does. One army, led by say a Khan or general, is able to defeat so many, and you come to the conclusion that fighting "endless" amount of armies (a bit ridiculous) would be of concern?

The army of Europe is hardly huge, they consists of tens of thousands, when the Mongols were fighting the Song Chinese, the combined army would surpass a million easily. It's the fact that the Mongols didn't gave much attention to Europe, and the army size seen in Europe wasn't as big as it was in Song China.

You see, your idea of constant loses are flawed, why?
It's because the constant loses are very mild, and I mean very mild. With the opposition, once they've routed, the Mongols chased and chased until all is dead (leaving a few to stack up in the opposition's castle), in Europe, the Mongols completely devastated Hungary.

You see, the thing is, Portugal or Scotland would never be eager to help out their neighbors, this gives time for the Mongol army to cover any losses, assuming it's severe (very unlikely).

It's a very simple concept, a bit like Guerrilla warfare, but direct.
If there are 10 against 1, and the 10 decides to fight together, outcome is obvious.
If 1 fights the 10 one by one, and 1 is stronger then 1/10, then all 10 would be dead.
This is the most simple... form I can think of for you.

Unfortunately for the Europeans, they are hardly going to fight together and combine their main armies, maybe a tiny fraction, such as the few hundred Templar Knights, but never main armies combined together, unless of course, they have strong relations, but still proven to fail.

What separates the Mongol from the others, is the fact that all rebels are killed. Records of ghost cities with fat all over the ground and dead corpses everywhere, such as in Russia, is the fact that if you do not join, all will die.

A lot of states joined the Mongols, as the psychological fear the Mongol have built is simply too much, this is seen in history. They are vassals of the Mongols, Mongols contain a lot of vassals, that did not rebel due to fear. Cities such as London or Rome, Venice or Paris, will probably be like Baghdad, completely sacked, with no live population, as Mongols do not want any further resistance.

Because the Mongols focused their attention on Song China, they managed to maintain China for a decent amount of time.

If they focused their attention on Europe, not only will Europe fall in a respectable amount of time (myth says Mongol army travels 100 miles per day, back in the days, this is a very good accomplishment, truth or false, they've proven to be able to transverse very quickly and effectively), all the major cities would have the fate of Baghdad (major cities in China or Russia also share the same fate), so many people would be dead, only feeble resistance would be left.
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  Quote benzin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18-Jul-2012 at 05:56
The mongolian army wich we are talking about here was 9 tumen, around 90,000 men.
The complete force of Subutai were 140-150,000 men.
Kadan's force was 30,000 men from this overall 140-150k.

This was the mongol's european army, and this army is unable to conquer a whole continent with all its nations and forts/castles.
thats all.


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  Quote AlphaS520 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18-Jul-2012 at 06:02
I would prefer if you give separate ideas why the Mongols wouldn't be able to conquer all of Europe, a tiny continent, then just stating it, when many historians would disagree with you. 
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  Quote benzin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18-Jul-2012 at 10:57
The mongols suffered huge casualties in many of their battles, against Moravia for example, but in some Polish and Hungarian battles they lost many thousand of people too. When they splitted up, they became defeatable. The main force lost sometime as well, even against the Volga Bulgarians.

As I mentioned they didnt invade or couldnt capture 160 fortified cities/castles only in Hungary.
They didnt capture West Hungary wich is more montainous than the eastern part (they had the time for that but they didnt do it)

Also it was part of their tactics to capture the ruler of certain country. In case of Hungary, they chased Bela IV. for a year but couldnt capture him. They didnt move on until they capture him, they were standing here for a year.

I cant tell you exactly how much time it would take to conquer a country completely, but we can make a wild guess, because in the case of Hungary, it took more than a year, and they conquered only the half of it.

So in the case of whole europe I guess a 10 years time is quite possible.

Their tactics in europe would be very well known in this period of time, western europe has time to set up and leave other conflicts until this treat wich I truly think would overwrite all other among these nations.

I think they would end just like the Huns did. The situation is comparable, Europe was almost defenceless against the Hunnic army, but at the end they had to turn back, they lost too many men in their hundreds of battles.

Bela the IV. denied to pay tax to the mongols after they left Hungary. He dared to do it because he seriously thought the mongols are defeatable only by Hungary itself. He knew exactly what kind of tactical mistakes his army made in the Muhi battle, and when he restabilized his power he gained contrel over huge forces were not available to him in 1241 (nobles, cuman force). (His army were the same size in the Muhi battle as the mongols)














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