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QuoteReplyTopic: Us Victory in Vietnam? Posted: 07-May-2009 at 22:53
Originally posted by Temujin
now hold on sec. before American involvement, there was only North Vietnam that was Communist. as a direct result of the war, Laos, Cambodia and South Vietnam became Communist. isn't that failure on the highest level? i mean how was Communism in SE Asia contained other than by natural borders?
I think it is hard to say whether that is because of direct US involvement? With or without US involvement, Cambodia or Laos were always going to be subject to Chinese or Vietnamese influence, whether indirectly or directly. Though, i would be careful to get too far into that, seeing that there are a lot of people still trying to point out what you already have, as the "Domino Effect" The Johnson administration was worried about? As policy, it was a failure.
Besides, in order to have used containment as a policy, the only way that was going to work was if the North Vietnamese respected the borders of it's neighbors, which it sadly never really did! That was another major factor that hampered US efforts in Vietnam, playing by the rules when no one else did!
The cost of doing what has been done include pretty well guaranteeing losing any influence in the middle east?
I agree with Pikeshot on this, the US never really had much too begin with anyways.
exacerbating economic collapse and alienating most formerly dependable allies. How is that not catastrophic
It has always been getting increasingly hard too tell what is a catastrophe anymore, or what even qualifies as such? Politicizing the news i guess? During the last Presidential election, but more specifically... throughout the entire Bush administration, we were told that the US economy was tanking. Now a little over three months into the Obama administration, we are finally, FINALLY being told that the US economic future looks rosy and promising! Go figure...
Disillusionment with Obama would likely be little different than with any US president once he is presented with the hard realities of US vital interests. Flexibility in public policy is most certainly less possible in the matter of strategic vital interests than it is in any other area.
A US "warmer relationship with Iran" is one of the least conceivable possibilities given Iranian ambitions in the Gulf and in the Moslem world surrounding it. Iran has pretensions to "great power status," a very doubtful goal given it's resources, but a more hostile cultural environment vis a vis relations with the Great Satan is difficult to imagine. I just can't see that.
Besides, as stated elsewhere, US foreign policy is now run out of the Pentagon. The Foreign Service is now a career graveyard. I don't think that is preferable, but it is the way it is. Dead academics and dead politicians now become Secretaries of State.
The cost of doing what has been done include pretty well guaranteeing losing any influence in the middle east?
I agree with Pikeshot on this, the US never really had much too begin with anyways.
Actually the US had a great deal of influence in the Middle East, even in the Arab countries, post 1945, or even slightly before from the time of the Cairo summit. While it weakened somewhat with the Iraqi revolution, the major turning point came in the realignment that took place between the Six Days and Yom Kippur wars, during which period the US changed to backing Israel.
I would however agree that apart from the perceived need to prevent southward expansion of Soviet influence, the US had no vital national interest in the middle east. Its influence was mainly devoted to exploiting the commercial interests of the American members of the Seven Sisters. The US didn't need the oil but it was certainly influenced by the profits its corporations could make from it.
exacerbating economic collapse and alienating most formerly dependable allies. How is that not catastrophic
It has always been getting increasingly hard too tell what is a catastrophe anymore, or what even qualifies as such? Politicizing the news i guess? During the last Presidential election, but more specifically... throughout the entire Bush administration, we were told that the US economy was tanking. Now a little over three months into the Obama administration, we are finally, FINALLY being told that the US economic future looks rosy and promising! Go figure...
Don't listen to what you are told. Look at what's happening.
Disillusionment with Obama would likely be little different than with any US president once he is presented with the hard realities of US vital interests.
The disillusionment is with his not recognising what the hard realities of US vital interests are. Chief among them has got to be the restitution as far as possible of real incomes and wealth of the American people. What's a more vital national interest than that? Certainly not the macho braggadocio of maintaining a massive military structure.
I don't think any president since Carter and Nixon has recognised the hard realities of the US situation (or if they did, they hid it for political purposes). And look where it got them.
Flexibility in public policy is most certainly less possible in the matter of strategic vital interests than it is in any other area.
A US "warmer relationship with Iran" is one of the least conceivable possibilities given Iranian ambitions in the Gulf and in the Moslem world surrounding it. Iran has pretensions to "great power status," a very doubtful goal given it's resources, but a more hostile cultural environment vis a vis relations with the Great Satan is difficult to imagine. I just can't see that.
Nobody said it would be easy. But somewhere along the line you have to recognise the hard realities of the strategic situation. Granted Iran doesn't have the resources of a great power, but that doesn't mean you can't feed their illusion.
Besides, as stated elsewhere, US foreign policy is now run out of the Pentagon. The Foreign Service is now a career graveyard. I don't think that is preferable, but it is the way it is. Dead academics and dead politicians now become Secretaries of State.
Possibly true, but that the US is making the same mistake (on that issue) that Germany made before ww1 is just another reason for disillusion. Hardly a nation in history has made a more complete misjudgement of where its 'vital strategic interests' lay than Germany in 1914 (except of course the Austrians, the Ottomans and the Russians in the same year).
This is way off topic but since it has been discussed I will post it here.
Iran and its mullahs are probably the most pragmatic regime in the world today. Their dogmatic stance against the US and Israel didn't prevent them from dealing with them and allying with them against other countries (while Iran was buying weapons from Israel Israel was killing shiites and fighting with the then Iranian allies Syria).
The policy in Iran was and always is follow the way that makes the regime stronger (not necesarily Iran as a whole). The US had regime change in Iran on top of their agenda since day one of the revolution so the US isn't much innocent in this regard either.
Iran wants two things, supremacy in the gulf region and strategic alliance with the US in central Asia (where there are still much unexplored oil and large Persian communities). Israel is the last thing on their mind and by the way, in the shiite thought Jerusalem and Palestine are much less important than the shrine of Zainab in Damascus which in itself is nothing compared with Mecca, Medina both are nothing compared with the sacred places in Iraq. Iran sold the shia of lebanon once and will sell them again when the price is good so there is no fear from this side.
Iran is afraid however of a united Arab front like what happened in the 80s. This will distroy its planning and supremacy and even distroy them themselves. A US ally will have the same effect it did with Israel. Freighten Arab countries and force them to give concessions.
Iran as a powerful Ally will be one of two major states (the other is Turkey) that will help the US wrest control over central Asia from both China and Russia (china is as powerful in CA as Russia because of the large investments there).
Changing strategy towards Iran by joining hands rather than confrontation will be the smart thing to do.
The US may not have had a critical need for the oil of the Middle East 40 or 50 years ago, but our trading partners did. The increase in demand in the last 15-20 years, and the beginnings of drop-offs in production, have both driven the only identifiable vital interest that the West has in the Middle East. The Indian Empire is long gone and the Suez Canal is more a local economic asset since the 1970s.
Ignoring the possibilities of adversaries or other competitors gaining effective control of the location (the Gulf) of such a critical natural resource cannot be considered as addressing a "vital strategic interest." I don't know what you are thinking about "macho braggadoccio," but what is better, having strong forces positioned to prevent that, or not acting in the matter of such a vital strategic interest and then probably having to take far more costly action? It is a case of the lesser of evils.
As far as a "massive military structure," the active service US army is a quarter of what it was 20 years ago; the navy is about half of what it was 20 years ago; the air force has dismantled by treaty much of it's strategic bomber force (which is mostly obsolete anyway) and has, more and more, a missile force, as well as nuclear devices, that are becoming obsolescent. The evidence points the other way.
The US has in the past been criticized for being "naive" in not understanding the world and not acting as a great power ought to do. Now we are criticized for understanding much more about the nasty realities of the world that we used to happily ignore (before WW II), and for acting as a great power ought to do. These days I think we are happy to ignore that. We will act in our interests and others will do the same.
The US cannot gain control over central Asia. Why would it want to? That is territory with resources for continental powers to contest.
About the business of being an ally of Iran - that is highly unlikely given the history of the last 30 years, and in the event, it would most likely aggravate relations with other Moslem countries to the detriment of US interests in the Gulf, where US vital interests lie. Defusing tensions is much more likely than becoming friends - too much baggage.
In the last 30 years there has been more strategic cooperation between the US and Iran than with any other country except mabe Pakistan (Gulf wars, all Afghan wars, contamination of the struggle in the Caucasus etc.). Iran is a natural US ally even with declared animosity because what is good for Iran is typically good for the US too.
As for the US not having any interest in CA. Well if this is your opinion then you might as well call it quits and give up your nukes and give them to China and Russia.
The US may not have had a critical need for the oil of the Middle East 40 or 50 years ago, but our trading partners did.
Some of them, yes, though it wasn't really 'critical' in the '50s say: it got more and more important as time went by.
But if driven to it, all the major ones (including Luxembourg ) could go back to using coal, of which they have plenty. Or go nuclear, like France. Or boost the quality and quantity of public transportation, like Luxembourg.
Solar panels and tidal sources may be 'blue-sky' but coal and nuclear power aren't.
Anyway why did the US's trading partners 40-50 years ago represent a vital interest for the US? It may be a bit truer now that the US is no longer self-sufficient, but back then?
The increase in demand in the last 15-20 years, and the beginnings of drop-offs in production, have both driven the only identifiable vital interest that the West has in the Middle East. The Indian Empire is long gone and the Suez Canal is more a local economic asset since the 1970s.
I said I don't think the US particularly has any vital interest in the middle east (apart from its corporations making money out of oil).
Ignoring the possibilities of adversaries or other competitors gaining effective control of the location (the Gulf) of such a critical natural resource cannot be considered as addressing a "vital strategic interest." I don't know what you are thinking about "macho braggadoccio," but what is better, having strong forces positioned to prevent that, or not acting in the matter of such a vital strategic interest and then probably having to take far more costly action? It is a case of the lesser of evils.
'Adversaries or other competitors' aren't going to be any better at controlling the middle east than the US is (and nowhere near as successful as Britian was once upon a time). Asymmetric warfare would work against them just as against the US.
The only 'danger' is that the middle eastern countries, left to themselves, may stop selling to western countries, but how likely is that to happen (now that the days of unconditional support for Israel are over everywhere except in the US)? The oil will be sold where the money is and the best way of ensuring future supply is to make sure you're one of the countries with the money.
As far as a "massive military structure," the active service US army is a quarter of what it was 20 years ago; the navy is about half of what it was 20 years ago; the air force has dismantled by treaty much of it's strategic bomber force (which is mostly obsolete anyway) and has, more and more, a missile force, as well as nuclear devices, that are becoming obsolescent. The evidence points the other way.
The US military budget is over 40% of the world total. It's double that of the entire EU, nearly ten times that of China, and dwarfs anybody else. That's massive.
The US has in the past been criticized for being "naive" in not understanding the world and not acting as a great power ought to do. Now we are criticized for understanding much more about the nasty realities of the world that we used to happily ignore (before WW II), and for acting as a great power ought to do. These days I think we are happy to ignore that. We will act in our interests and others will do the same.
What the US is being criticised for now is naivete. I can't think of any recent development as naive as the invasion of Iraq (and the failure to invade in in 1991). It would be even more naive to first-strike against Iran, which has been talked about.
now hold on sec. before American involvement, there was only North Vietnam that was Communist. as a direct result of the war, Laos, Cambodia and South Vietnam became Communist. isn't that failure on the highest level? i mean how was Communism in SE Asia contained other than by natural borders?
No, a failure at the highest level would have been full exchange nuclear war or total communist world domination. Those were the stakes for much of the Cold War.
While the communist takeover of SE Asia was devastating for much of the local population it didn't have a significant global strategic effect. New Zealand, South Korea, Australia and the rest of SEATO remained intact.
I agree with pikeshot1600. I have the same doubts about Obama and his capability to handle foreign affairs and foreign diplomacy. I can't figure out like you said his complete opposite stance towards America's staunch enemies. Quite the reversal of the Bush Administration. His book and handshake ordeal with Chavez, his meeting with socialist leaders like Morales. Him and Hilary Clinton seem too ambitious to start an alliance or a facade frienship with Iran.
I agree Ayatollah Khameini might see it differant but not Ahmadinejad, he like you said, thinks the U.S is the devil. I can't see even the Democrats becoming allies or friends with countries that have seen waves of issues with us since, 1953 and the instillment of the shah, and the booting out of Mossadeq. The Iranian Revolution in 1979, the back and forth supporting of Iran and Iraq in the 80's. Even those countries belive this "turn around" is a sheme. I think it's a "keep your enemies closer" type deal. Even with Obama's call for for a nuclear dis-arment, I don't see it working like planned, thats why they want a missle defense shield to protect Isreal and a few other "key" countries. It would block attacks from both Russia and Iran.
I would be interested in your guys' view on if you think this new stance of friends or alliances is for real or is it like I said, just to keep a neutral stance, and try to eliminate Nukes, missles, WMD'S, Warheads,etc... within these countries, to ensure that no country stays a super-military threat with big weapons. You know the Cold War is over, yet Nuclear threats are still severe, and alot of people trying to obtain them are vengeful towards the west.
I agree with pikeshot1600. I have the same doubts about Obama and his capability to handle foreign affairs and foreign diplomacy. I can't figure out like you said his complete opposite stance towards America's staunch enemies. Quite the reversal of the Bush Administration. His book and handshake ordeal with Chavez, his meeting with socialist leaders like Morales. Him and Hilary Clinton seem too ambitious to start an alliance or a facade frienship with Iran.
Why do you see Chavez and Morales as 'staunch enemies' of the US? In fact why do you see socialism as inimical to the US? Does that make Luxembourg, a socialist country, a 'staunch enemy' of the US?
I agree Ayatollah Khameini might see it differant but not Ahmadinejad, he like you said, thinks the U.S is the devil.
He's a populist politician who needs a cause to distract his people from their economic situation. Why you would believe he means anything he says I don't know.
I can't see even the Democrats becoming allies or friends with countries that have seen waves of issues with us since, 1953 and the instillment of the shah, and the booting out of Mossadeq. The Iranian Revolution in 1979, the back and forth supporting of Iran and Iraq in the 80's. Even those countries belive this "turn around" is a sheme. I think it's a "keep your enemies closer" type deal. Even with Obama's call for for a nuclear dis-arment, I don't see it working like planned, thats why they want a missle defense shield to protect Isreal and a few other "key" countries. It would block attacks from both Russia and Iran.
Why is Israel a "key" country? Why does it have anything to do with the US's national interests?
You overlook that Mosaddeq was a secularising modernist, and was overthrown by the CIA with the help of the mullahs. I would have thought ' we got rid of Mosaddeq for you" would be a good line to take in dealing with the theocrats now. At least in private.
(On a minor point the Shah was installed by the British and the Soviets. Ât least, they forced his father's abdication.)
I would be interested in your guys' view on if you think this new stance of friends or alliances is for real or is it like I said, just to keep a neutral stance, and try to eliminate Nukes, missles, WMD'S, Warheads,etc... within these countries, to ensure that no country stays a super-military threat with big weapons. You know the Cold War is over, yet Nuclear threats are still severe, and alot of people trying to obtain them are vengeful towards the west.
Totally agree with gcle except in the point when he said mullahs supported overthrowing Musaddeq. The mullah were either neutral or with him (Khumaini was jailed for his support for the man). Plus it wa the US that started the problems with Chaves.
He was elected time and time again in free and fair elections monitored by US monitors among other people and won despite lacking media support (most mass media there is owned by the opposition). He was overthrown in 2002 by a US sponsored coup at the same time Bush was preaching democracy to the world and by popular movement he was reinstated. The US doesn't have the right to interfer in other people's business.
I won't push the point about the mullahs, because I admit I was speaking loosely. I should have said that many strict religious figures supported the overthrow of Mosaddeq. After all, though Mosaddeq's National Front party wasn't Communist his policies did have the strong support of the Tudeh party, which in effect was. Not being an Arab, he also wasn't Ba'athist of course, but his political position wasn't too different from theirs.
Whatever his overt position in 1953, when Khomeini finally achieved power, he lost hardly any time in banning the National Front's successor organisation, its leaders being threatened with execution if they did not denounce it.
Of course, since his overthrow Mosaddeq has been to some extent martyrised, which is why I said 'at least in private'.
Iran was run by secularists for 2 years after the revolution (Bani Sadr). It was the war with Iraq and the active anomosity from the US that brought the mullahs and gave them support.
Thanks for the replys! First to answer gcle2003, I personally don't see Chavez as an enemy, I was referring to the mainstream view of him and Venezuela, how Obama was pertrayed, mainly by the GOP, as meeting with someone who has been on the CIA'S list. Chavez himself claims assissnation attempts on him, led by the CIA and the U.S Gov't. So to say the least most in the U.S Gov't see him as someone to keep an eye on. I don't think he has a grudge towards the U.S, seeing his perhapsness of a new future with U.S. Second, I don't mind some of Socialism's better qualities, but I'm talking about the U.S., who is more of a capitalist country, who finds Socialism a threat, mainly because they may nationalize resources that are key to Super Power Countries.
As far as Israel, it is the only allie in the middle east except maybe Pakistan and that's only after Bhutto was assissinated. My point was, you know the U.S. and the Brittish are working hand in hand with Israel. It has been shown time after time the three working in a trifecta. I know Mossadeq was ousted by the CIA, and the Brittish partly because Mossadeq wanted to nationalize Iran's oil and make more money for the country. Brittain had huge stakes in their oil. The U.S. CIA and the Brittish were not about to loose out in oil. So they overthrew Mahmoud Mossadeq, and instilled the pro-western Shah. And yes Ahmadinejad is a staunch enemey of Israel and it's allies. The U.S. needs a puppet like Israel, especially in the middle east war theatre.
As for Obama I say he's got what you may call a " Main street swagger and a Wall street hustle." Meaning he looks like,acts like, and has the confidence to help the American people, but his job is working for wall street and the big whigs.
Yes and that's why I said, what is Democracy if someone like Mossadeq can be elected fairly by the people, in a democratic fashion, and is then ousted because he goes against the U.S or Britains plans. Puppet Democracy is more like it.
Of course he wasn't a Ba'athist, maybe if Khomeini was, Saddam and his Ba'ath party might of thought about helping Iran during the Revoulution of 79' instead of taking advantage and going to war. Put Muslim brotherhood in a whole, over the political and religious differances. If the whole world could only accept each individual's beleifs. Who cares if your Sunni, Shi'ite, black, white, Christain, Jewish, Hindu, wether you belive in Buddah, whatever the case. We now have to deal with people's decisions and actions from the past, it's true, the past comes back to haunt us. I don't see any changes to make the future much better either, just waitin on the world to change, I guess. Stay outta other countries bussines, promote open trade, and if they are not causing any harm then they are alright by me. That should be every countries motto.
Yes and that's why I said, what is Democracy if someone like Mossadeq can be elected fairly by the people, in a democratic fashion, and is then ousted because he goes against the U.S or Britains plans. Puppet Democracy is more like it.
There was certainly a British school of thought at the time that the US also engineered the rise of Mosaddeq, the rise and fall being a double whammy operation that ended with Britain losing control of the Iranian oil to the Americans. Certainly over the whole episode Britain lost and the US gained (at least their corporations did it's disputable that what is good for Exxon is good for America).
Of course he wasn't a Ba'athist, maybe if Khomeini was,
The Ba'ath was/is an Arab nationalist movement. Khomeini couldn't have been Ba'athist, even if his politics and religion had been the same. Mosaddeq, being Iranian, also couldn't be Ba'athist, but his political/social programs were quite similar, and totally unlike Khomeini's.
Saddam and his Ba'ath party might of thought about helping Iran during the Revoulution of 79' instead of taking advantage and going to war. Put Muslim brotherhood in a whole, over the political and religious differances.
Saddam was totally opposed to the Iranian revolutionary government in any way you care to mention. Secular vs religious, ethnically Sunnni vs Shia, westernising versus traditional, Arab vs Iranian, cynical vs idealist... pretty well on any dimension you care to pick, except Israel which they both used for propaganda purposes.
If the whole world could only accept each individual's beleifs. Who cares if your Sunni, Shi'ite, black, white, Christain, Jewish, Hindu, wether you belive in Buddah, whatever the case. We now have to deal with people's decisions and actions from the past, it's true, the past comes back to haunt us. I don't see any changes to make the future much better either, just waitin on the world to change, I guess. Stay outta other countries bussines, promote open trade, and if they are not causing any harm then they are alright by me. That should be every countries motto.
Sounds reasonable but I'm not holding my breath. The world has gone backward in the last forty years in all those respects.
Harmony and understanding Sympathy and trust abounding No more falsehoods or derisions Golden living dreams of visions Mystic crystal revelation And the mind's true liberation Aquarius! Aquarius!
When the moon is in the Seventh House And Jupiter aligns with Mars Then peace will guide the planets And love will steer the stars
This is the dawning of the Age of Aquarius The Age of Aquarius Aquarius! Aquarius!
or, contemporaneously,
Imagine there's no countries It isn't hard to do Nothing to kill or die for And no religion too Imagine all the people Living life in peace
You may say that I'm a dreamer But I'm not the only one I hope someday you'll join us And the world will be as one.
Gcle2003, you make some good points. I know Mossaqeq and Khoemeini couldn't be Ba'athist, I was saying, if they were accepted by Iraq and Saddam, even though the huge differances in Sunni versus Shi'ite religion between the two countries would beg to differ. The out come would of been quicker recovery after the revolution. But yeah they are two differant Countries let alone two differant political parties.
I was kinda saying that if Saddam was not interested in some of Iran's oil fields, expanding territory, maybe a religious war, or fear of a Shi'a Islamist influence, the two countries might not of faught for eight years. I think Saddam did take advantage of the Revolution of 79' for whatever his reasons. America did too I quess, they supplied both sides,they backed Saddam, and through the Iran/Contra affair funded Iran with weapons through Israel. Saddam and Mustard gas, where do you think he got that from? He then criticized the very people suppling him.
Anyway I love world history, war history, all this shit, it's a nice conversation. By the way John Lennon..IMAGINE, what a great song hey? Some people claim that song is about communism. They can't understand to make world peace, the words in that song would have to be put forth in our actions. Great song, one of my favorites!!!
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