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The long-term geopolitcal fallout?

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  Quote Kevin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: The long-term geopolitcal fallout?
    Posted: 26-Oct-2008 at 01:27
I have been wondering what will be the long-term geopolitical effects of the current financial crisis? This is such a loaded question I don't where to begin.

However if the last worst financial crisis of the past 80 years is an indicator of where something like this can cause as the Great Depression as we all know helped usher in the Second World War. It is truly interesting to think what effects this one might have on World Affairs. 
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  Quote Parnell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26-Oct-2008 at 14:33
I don't think it'll lead to another world war. At least not on the scale of the last two.
 
The main industrialised nations in the world (Europe) won't go there. The US might because too many of their inhabitants are ignorants. However, the chances of regional conflicts in the third world are there, with the possibility of something happening in Latin America. Strife is already apparant with the Venezuala/Ecuador/Columbia scenario which blew up last year.
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  Quote Kevin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26-Oct-2008 at 15:33
Originally posted by Parnell

I don't think it'll lead to another world war. At least not on the scale of the last two.
 
The main industrialised nations in the world (Europe) won't go there. The US might because too many of their inhabitants are ignorants. However, the chances of regional conflicts in the third world are there, with the possibility of something happening in Latin America. Strife is already apparant with the Venezuala/Ecuador/Columbia scenario which blew up last year.


The US won't go there ether rest assured because the US doesn't have the prestige, money nor manpower and willpower to attempt something like Iraq perhaps ever again due to the effect this has had on our nation's foreign policy. However I agree third World conflict's pose a huge risk and I think they are one's that could and will boil out of control quickly. Also I think Eastern Europe will be at risk also, especially the Balkans for what I have been reading.  
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  Quote edgewaters Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26-Oct-2008 at 15:56
Rearmament has already begun on the part of Russia, China, India, and numerous lesser powers.

Third World conflicts will only get so far - sooner or later, these powers will step in as regional security bosses, effectively forming new blocs or empires under the pretext of peacekeeping.

World war or conflict between major powers is only a scenario if these ambitions should be challenged. Such as, for instance, if China were to destabilize Taiwan and cause a civil crisis there, and undertake a police action, which were to be challenged by the US.
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  Quote Parnell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26-Oct-2008 at 18:03
The US would have to intervene if something happened in Taiwan. If they did though, it could be disastrous.
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  Quote edgewaters Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26-Oct-2008 at 18:25
Originally posted by Parnell

The US would have to intervene if something happened in Taiwan.


Not necessarily. Taiwan's value to the US is largely as a way of containing China. However, in a scenario where the US can no longer afford to maintain the global status quo through military force, it's alot less important. There's no economic imperative to intervene in such a scenario, and a US that has given up its role as global cop has no strategic interest in Taiwan.


Edited by edgewaters - 26-Oct-2008 at 18:28
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  Quote Kevin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26-Oct-2008 at 18:59
Originally posted by Parnell

The US would have to intervene if something happened in Taiwan. If they did though, it could be disastrous.


I think it depends how it would turn out as ether side in the conflict has alot to lose in the event of defeat.

However I don't think such a conflict is very likely in the future now since it looks that Taiwan's Government is one that is on better terms with China for the time being.  I also don't think the Chinese would want to lose face with the West in the aftermath of it's coming out party, and the possibility that it could be the West's savior in the current economic crisis. As it has been touted recently  
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  Quote Leonidas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21-Feb-2009 at 05:46
Originally posted by Kevin

I have been wondering what will be the long-term geopolitical effects of the current financial crisis? This is such a loaded question I don't where to begin.

However if the last worst financial crisis of the past 80 years is an indicator of where something like this can cause as the Great Depression as we all know helped usher in the Second World War. It is truly interesting to think what effects this one might have on World Affairs. 
I have been putting some thought into this. I think it will have consequences down the road. We can start to see the rise of nationalism as the economic conditions bite harder.

The EU can either centralise more or fray at the edges as the weaker countries start to default. Russian foreign reserves are starting to diminish, i am told by 25% already, so their currency may crash in the not to distant future. Look back at the 30's to see what happens when people are angry, hungry or simply disenchanted with the system, they will be attracted to populist, strong sounding and ultimatly self centered-narrow type politics. rom there what happens is anyones guess. The social diruptions and poitical outcomes are going to exist but troublesome to predict.

eastern europe, the baltics, and southern European countries are what I am talking about (and in that order).

other flash points is China and the ME. Everyone is going to be impacted somehow by this, because the scale of the damage so far is, well, beyond what most people imagine


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  Quote edgewaters Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21-Feb-2009 at 06:08

Originally posted by Leonidas

Look back at the 30's to see what happens when people are angry, hungry or simply disenchanted with the system, they will be attracted to populist, strong sounding and ultimatly self centered-narrow type politics. rom there what happens is anyones guess. The social diruptions and poitical outcomes are going to exist but troublesome to predict.

I think they're always attracted to those sorts of things ... its just that there's a lid on social conflict when times are good. When times are bad, people (and political groups) show their true colours - for better or worse.

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  Quote Parnell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21-Feb-2009 at 08:55
I don't think we'll ever see a return to the far right. Though films like 'V for Vendetta' are discouraging...
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  Quote Al Jassas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21-Feb-2009 at 10:03
Hello to you all
 
Well I beg to differ with you Parnell.
 
Ever since 9/11 the obsession with the "Islamic threat" have gripped european and international politics. Citizens of europe who belong to the Islamic faith have been literally persecuted and/or targetted by everyone except minor leftist and libertarian parties. Before 9/11 Pym Fortuyn and his freedom party, Jean Marie Le Pen and Jorge Heider all , well maybe except for the last guy, in the dark side of european politics. After that these guys began to push their racist ideas and got alot of support. So much so that so called "mainstream" parties began to adopt their policies. Just look at recent events in the last year and you will understand how wild this phobia about Islam has went. 
 
Here is the newest obsession with muslims:
 
What we are now seeing is a contest between "maistream" parties and those on the "fringe" on who is more extreme towards muslims. Now if this isn't a move towards facism I don't know what it is.
 
AL-Jassas 


Edited by Al Jassas - 21-Feb-2009 at 10:09
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  Quote Parnell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21-Feb-2009 at 10:40
I strongly disagree with Al Jassas. Though I can't really comment on most European countries, because I'm not well enough informed, I think the tendency in Britain has been the exact opposite, in political circles at least. The BNP got 0.7% of the vote and have been exaggerated beyond all proportion both by the political class (Want to scare people into thinking they have a reasonable chance of being a viable party) and the petty media, like the Daily Mail (Who not so secretly are in love with the BNP. Not even to mention the Daily Express, the vilest newspaper in Britain today)

Labour has introduced restrictions on free speech under the pretence of 'protecting minorities'. In fact, the rallying call of protecting minorities seems to be a constant amongst the three British parties.

Saying this is a move to fascism could have some grounds (The encroaching destruction of personal liberty) but to blame it on Islamophobia is fanciful talk to say the least.
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  Quote Leonidas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21-Feb-2009 at 13:16
Al Jassas the threat in this case, is the EU, big business, UN or any thought of overarching body. Culmating into economic nationalism and protectionism which may progress into something more aggressive at a later point. right now most people dont give a sh*t about terrorism, Islam or the ME, just their jobs and their debts.
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  Quote Al Jassas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21-Feb-2009 at 13:28
Hello to you all
 
Well the reason why the BNP doesn't have that popularity is because the party simply doesn't have any solid program like the UKIP (which has pretty much the same hate filled rhetoric the BNP has and gets some 5% of the vote). Its just a group of people who just hate everything and directed it using politics.
 
Plus if the other "maistream" political parties are doing fine in their phobic policies towards muslims why should people vote for the BNP? I mean have you even read what the new program proposed by the "leftest" Nulabour (Contest 2) says?
 
The holocaust started like this by the way. First blame the jews for every folly, then claim that they are subservient to foerign powers (in those days communists, nowadays its the sharia ruling islamic caliphate which exist in their sick minds) and finally stick a badge to identify them (in this case classify every single muslim in your country and with the new ID and current technology, who need crescent shoulder badges). Finally "rehabilitate" them in camps where they will never come back from.
 
 
 
Al-Jassas


Edited by Al Jassas - 21-Feb-2009 at 13:33
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  Quote Parnell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21-Feb-2009 at 13:51
Originally posted by Al Jassas

Hello to you all
 
Well the reason why the BNP doesn't have that popularity is because the party simply doesn't have any solid program like the UKIP (which has pretty much the same hate filled rhetoric the BNP has and gets some 5% of the vote). Its just a group of people who just hate everything and directed it using politics.
 
Plus if the other "maistream" political parties are doing fine in their phobic policies towards muslims why should people vote for the BNP? I mean have you even read what the new program proposed by the "leftest" Nulabour (Contest 2) says?
 
The holocaust started like this by the way. First blame the jews for every folly, then claim that they are subservient to foerign powers (in those days communists, nowadays its the sharia ruling islamic caliphate which exist in their sick minds) and finally stick a badge to identify them (in this case classify every single muslim in your country and with the new ID and current technology, who need crescent shoulder badges). Finally "rehabilitate" them in camps where they will never come back from.
 
 
 
Al-Jassas


Jesus Al Jassas, what propagandist crap do you actually read?


Well the reason why the BNP doesn't have that popularity is because the party simply doesn't have any solid program like the UKIP (which has pretty much the same hate filled rhetoric the BNP has and gets some 5% of the vote). Its just a group of people who just hate everything and directed it using politics.


Its well known that the UKIP did well because they had at one stage every housewifes favourite celebrity, peter kilroy, running for office. He gave them A LOT of prestige and voting power, and they are now back more or less to the pre Kilroy days.


Plus if the other "maistream" political parties are doing fine in their phobic policies towards muslims why should people vote for the BNP? I mean have you even read what the new program proposed by the "leftest" Nulabour (Contest 2) says?


No, I haven't read that. I've already said I'm talking about Britain particularly, I can't comment on what happens on the continent quite as well. How are the mainstream parties Islamophobic exactly? How is blocking Wilders entry into the UK an example of Islamophobia? How is the prosecution of 'hate speech' an example of Islamophobia? The disproportional number of Muslims in the police force in major cities? Where is your proof?


The holocaust started like this by the way. First blame the jews for every folly, then claim that they are subservient to foerign powers (in those days communists, nowadays its the sharia ruling islamic caliphate which exist in their sick minds) and finally stick a badge to identify them (in this case classify every single muslim in your country and with the new ID and current technology, who need crescent shoulder badges). Finally "rehabilitate" them in camps where they will never come back from.



Reductio et Hitlerum. Making comparisons and judgements like these only serve to take the piss of the holocaust. You've no proof, and the Holocaust has origins and causes vastly different than our present situation.
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  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21-Feb-2009 at 14:29

What does all this have to do with long term geopolitical fallout from current financial issues?

Let us not get into it over who is paranoid about his neighbor being a "sleeper" for a theological plot, or the yellow journalism of tabloid trash.  We have had far more than enough of that garbage in Current Affairs for years.

How will current financial realities affect geopolitical powers and their associated/dependent state entities, and how might it affect competitors and theirs?  What might be expected, and who might be involved?
 
I suggest we look at this in terms of historical vital interests, and in terms of recognized spheres of influence.  We need an historical perspective after all.
 
 


Edited by pikeshot1600 - 21-Feb-2009 at 14:48
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  Quote Parnell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21-Feb-2009 at 14:36
Well it is relevant in a sense. The cries of fascism and nazism always arise during recession and the threat of recession - even though it is highly unlikely.
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  Quote Al Jassas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21-Feb-2009 at 14:51
Hello Parnell
 
Please read the Guardian link above, on second thought, here it is again:
 
 
This thing is serious and it can easily develope. Muslims in europe don't differ from the maistream european society yet you will always here some guy caling for forced integration for people who are already well integrated.
 
Al-Jassas
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  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21-Feb-2009 at 14:54
Should the thread move into current affairs, it will need to be moved to Current Affairs.  Wink
 
 
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  Quote edgewaters Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21-Feb-2009 at 17:19

Originally posted by Parnell

I don't think we'll ever see a return to the far right.

Not the far right of the past, perhaps.

But groups don't always have to be electorally succesful to get their policies across, sometimes getting the other parties to steal platform planks works as well.



Edited by edgewaters - 21-Feb-2009 at 17:24
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