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Current US financial Crisis

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Al Jassas View Drop Down
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  Quote Al Jassas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Current US financial Crisis
    Posted: 16-Sep-2008 at 22:56
Hello to you all
 
Since nobody has given this a thread of its own I decided to give one.
 
The Financial crisis is gutting the US and world markets. First Bear Stearns, then Fannie and Freddie and now Lehman Bros and this is in the US. Elsewhere Northern Rock in Britain, UBS and many other banks were deeply affected. And why is this happening? Because the "prophet" of savage regulation free economics the great Milton Friedman used to say in not so many words "Greed is good" (he probably never said it but his disciples say it all the time).
 
The subprime mortgage crisis is quite complex and simple at the same time. People who shouldn't and can't get loand from the next door bank because they can't even pay their credit card debt are alot. These people want to build/buy homes and because they can't buy homes they continue to pay rent. banks realised that and realised how big the market is, 1.3 trillion $ while the rest of the mortgage market is about 6 trillion $. Because Greed is good banks starting throwing money into and already weakening real-estate market and then the defaults started to come. This is the easy part. The hard part is where did all this money spent come from? Who takes the responsibility for the securities? Who takes the risk? Is it the original lender? Is it the guy in the street? Is it the Bank in the middle?
 
Initially our cousins in the gulf came for the rescue, 1 trillion $ was pushed in western economies to help stabilize financial markets. Now after the new revelations and with the  world's largest insurer AIG is in deep s**t and begging for money (it needs 80 billion in the next 24-48 hours or else bankruptcy) or even a takeover the guys in the gulf a wary. Alreay some of them are reporting that their investments were failure and the unreasonable constraints put on them (they only own stock nothing more) and their decision to accept the constraints was a grave error on their part.  
 
So what does the future hold? Hope that our financial afaires savvy people could join the discussion.
 
 Al-Jassas


Edited by Al Jassas - 16-Sep-2008 at 23:07
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Ponce de Leon View Drop Down
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  Quote Ponce de Leon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17-Sep-2008 at 01:25
I dont know about you guys, but following the massive problems going on in Wall Street gives me something to relate to in learning about business practices in my University. The only thing is now all my professors are scaring me because the job market is going to be only more competitive for people like me coming out against skilled workers looking for the same jobs
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  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17-Sep-2008 at 01:46
The current situation shows the folly of unregulated financial instruments that are just smoke and mirrors, and the unregulated markets for them that are created to make fast money up front.  No one in the financial stratosphere wants to be left out, so everyone jumps on this not fully understanding what is going on.
 
The conventional wisdom is that investment markets are characterized by greed and fear.  I would add to that "speed."  You gotta make it fast and do so before the various financial industries figure out that the financial underpinnings of these instruments are illusory.
 
Secondary markets for mortgages that are made to people who have insufficient financial means are absurd.  Who underwrote this crap?  No one.  Who understood the exposure?  obviously no one who mattered.  When regulators ignore, or see and fail to clamp down on, financial instruments that have no real substance, one now sees what can happen.
 
The current situation is a failure to regulate.....a legacy of the 1980s.  However, it is not different in substance than the "junk bond" market of the 1980s where a handful of charlatans made bonuses of $500,000,000 and cowboy firms like Dexel, Burnham & Lambert collapsed under the weight of debt serviced by "income" from artificial "capital."
 
The more bizarre the product; the more obscure the financial foundation, the more gullible the buyers seem to be.  The "underwriters" don't care as long as the up front profits are there.  They laugh about the clueless idiots who buy their garbage over drinks at the Harvard Club.
 
  
 
 


Edited by pikeshot1600 - 17-Sep-2008 at 02:10
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  Quote gcle2003 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17-Sep-2008 at 14:59
The similarity of the rush to lend money to people to buy houses whether they could afford them or not resembles the rush to lend money to people to buy shares whether they could afford them or not that marked the 'twenties. The 'twenties stock bubble crashed. The recent housing bubble crashed.
 
Which is worth remembering.
 
Another thing worth remembering is that when everyone is happy lending each loan increases the money supply which spirals up enabling the huge profits and bonuses. But when people start demanding repayment of loans every loan that is repaid or defaults reduces the money supply, making for a deflationary spiral.
 
The big difficulty at the moment is that you have a physical recession, with high unemployment and low profits and weak demand for capital in the manufacturing/retail/general services sectors, so that you should be looking for lower interest rates and increased debts at the same time as you have financial institutions carrying too much debt and reluctant to loan, which would call for higher interest rates and reduced debts.
 
Which is a quandary.
 
Added to which is a factor missing in the 'twenties that a massive share of the country's debt (not just the federal debt) is owed to overseas investors, whose confidence somehow has to be maintained.
 
A real quandary.


Edited by gcle2003 - 17-Sep-2008 at 15:04
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  Quote Leonidas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17-Sep-2008 at 15:13
A serious recession but no total collapse.

..a partial collapse though. the market always picks itself up, and there is allot of cash on the sides waiting for this part in the cycle to end. Hence why i am cheering the clean out has finally made some momentum and the year long charade can now come to a conclusion.  I really do feel sorry for the good employees that were victims to the arrogance and greed of the pricks at the top. MBA's mean nothing without some common sense.

Now back to the future where you go to the local bank and he actually looks at you employment history, does the checks, makes sure your earnings can more than cover the amount + interest and takes on your true risk on his own books.
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  Quote Al Jassas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17-Sep-2008 at 17:56
Hello to you all
 
Well the US government did the right thing by bailing out AIG, but here is the problem, can AIG turn into another Enron? I mean this company has been changing the amount of cash it needed every couple of days. First it was 20 billion, then it was 80 billion and who knows what will happen next. Also if AIG, which is an insurence company, was involved in subprime markets, what guarantees that other insurence companies are not involved and had not yet been exposed?
 
Already the market is not confident that the bail out was enough nor that we have seen the last of it:
 
 
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  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17-Sep-2008 at 22:45
Evidently AIG will disappear.  The assets will be sold off to satisfy the Fed's loans.  Many of the assets are in good order and will realize much of their value.  Their holdings of garbage mortgage paper will damage the value to current stockholders who will probably be almost wiped out.  Tough; that's the breaks.
 
The markets seem to be keeping an eye on Washington Mutual, a huge savings bank with enormous exposure to questionable debt.  WaMu may not make it, and that would be another enormous hit to the FDIC and the Treasury.
 
   
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  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17-Sep-2008 at 23:10
Unpleasant though it may be, and politically unpalatable as well, the rules of the game may soon be changing for those used to living on credit.
 
The Treasury Department, through the Comptroller of the Currency, who regulates the banking system, may have no alternative but to put the hammer down on credit by administrative fiat.  Shrinking the money supply in an orderly fashion may not be fast enough.
 
If the Comptroller tightens requirements on the ratio of loans to capital, the first to feel the effects will be small businesses, and both mortgage seekers and home equity borrowers.  Mortgages will be harder to get (a good thing), and home equity lines may be denied or even pulled for those who have them.  Those with high balances on home equity loans (and even smaller businesses) may even see their loans called if the banks need to comply with regulatory enforcement.
 
While all this may depress economic activity, and cause political pain as well as personal problems, the disciplinary results may actually be worth it.  An entire generation has been weaned on gratification by living on credit.  There is plenty of blame for that.
 
Most likely, nothing will be done until after the election.  Win or lose, the White House probably will hold off at least six weeks before directing the Treasury to do anything.  If the Repubs win, it could come days after the election.  If they lose, it may not come until concurrent with the inauguaration so as much of the blame as possible will be transferred to the Dems.
 
If the Repubs lose, the Dems will take much of the heat for trying to fix the problems.
 
       


Edited by pikeshot1600 - 17-Sep-2008 at 23:13
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  Quote Leonidas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18-Sep-2008 at 04:45
Originally posted by Al Jassas

Hello to you all
 
Well the US government did the right thing by bailing out AIG, but here is the problem, can AIG turn into another Enron? I mean this company has been changing the amount of cash it needed every couple of days. First it was 20 billion, then it was 80 billion and who knows what will happen next. Also if AIG, which is an insurence company, was involved in subprime markets, what guarantees that other insurence companies are not involved and had not yet been exposed?
 
Already the market is not confident that the bail out was enough nor that we have seen the last of it:
 
The monoline insurer's ( i would say they are insolvent) were also heavily invoved in this garantueeing (backing) of mortgage back securties. The market is just shtting itself because they realised how endemic the issues are....but AIG is no Enron. Its other businesses are viable and good quailty - aslong as policy holders beleive they will be protected ie no big run on their policies. They can trade out of this as long as confidence exists, but they needed to someone big (the Fed for now) to cover their arses in the immediate term.
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  Quote Leonidas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18-Sep-2008 at 04:59
Originally posted by pikeshot1600

Evidently AIG will disappear.  The assets will be sold off to satisfy the Fed's loans.  Many of the assets are in good order and will realize much of their value.  Their holdings of garbage mortgage paper will damage the value to current stockholders who will probably be almost wiped out.  Tough; that's the breaks.
 
The markets seem to be keeping an eye on Washington Mutual, a huge savings bank with enormous exposure to questionable debt.  WaMu may not make it, and that would be another enormous hit to the FDIC and the Treasury.
 
   
WaMu is on the auction block. Everyone is merging and trying to shore each other up. The best thing the Fed did was to let Lehman go and give these corp's a good slap. Up until now they were simply treading water and delaying this part of the cycle. HBOS* is also a goner taken over by Lloyds, that bank was the pathetic story of 2008 (re the comedy of its capital raising). This is a gun shot marraige thanks to the UK government not wanting another northern rock
 
I suspect a few small regional US players will fade away.
 
*To the Aussie's they own BankWest. CBA or NAB should pick that strategic business up
 
Top winner so far seems Barclays bank, best thing the did was to walk away from lehman and then return and pick up the best bit for 1.75bill. Im not so sure if BoA scored yet with Merrill, but if it pulls it off, it comes out a winner.
 


Edited by Leonidas - 18-Sep-2008 at 05:05
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  Quote hugoestr Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18-Sep-2008 at 19:17
I hope that the U.S. leadership will do what is necessary to prevent a total meltdown. Frankly, I don't expect that they will, because they have the same ideological blinds that the Hoover administration had.

But I am hoping against hope that they will follow through with the solution. A big recession is now a lot more appealing than what seems to be over the horizon.
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  Quote ulrich von hutten Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18-Sep-2008 at 20:27
The swan song of the capitalistic world, living on tick.
 
The market crisis is another beacon at the sky of exploitation. It will be like it was before, the bloodsucker will be benefit from this downfall and the poor have to bite the dust.

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  Quote Al Jassas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18-Sep-2008 at 21:23

Hello Hugo

Comparing the current administration and the current crisis with the Hoover administration and the 29 crisis is a little bit unjust. Back then, the federal government didn't even have a federal budget I think. The power of the reserve to interven was quite limited and in any case the government was powerless to do anything since the core of the problem was failure of borrowers to pay debts to banks, and then failure of those banks to pay their debts to the larger banks and thus we had a somewhat pyramid scheme.

By bailing out failing businesses the current government showed that it was willing to leave ideology outside the door and talk common sense. If Ron Paul was the president as some republicans and dems wish he distroyed what was left of the world economy by his libertarian policies.
 
As for the crisis, there is no end in sight as the IMF pres says nor there is a simple solution. The basis of the current economic policies is wrong and a structural reform that will take decades must be implemented. But with the existence of powerful lobbies and ideologues who understand nothing about economics except the one in their fantasy world, such reforms will always be short and another crisis will come as a result of the failure to implement tough full reforms.
 
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  Quote gcle2003 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19-Sep-2008 at 10:40
So if a racing punter can't pay off the bookies, the answer is to pay off the bookies so they will go on accepting his bets?
 
And if an alcoholic feels thirsty, you give him a bottle of wine? If a heroin addict can't afford his fixes, you pay off the dealers so they will go on providing them?
 
Granted we don't know yet what the new plan will be in detail, but that's the way it was interpreted by Wall Street yesterday.
 
Al-Jassas is kind of right and kind of wrong about the Federal power to intervene under Hoover. It was true at the start of the administration, but Hoover set up the Reconstruction Finance Corporation to enable such intervention. (In fact Hoover gets a worse press than he deserves: the RFC was a powerful tool under the following Democratic administrations.)
 
But that was not the same thing as seems to be mooted here. The RFC simply lent mpney to institutions (not just financial ones) in trouble, and made sure it got the loan back later. Here they are talking about buying bad assets off of financial institutions (only) in the vague hope that some day they might be worth something. In the meantime the institutions - as far as has been said so far - can just go back to what they were doing.
 
Meanwhile, in the two weeks preceding the Lehmann bankruptcy, over 900,000 more Americans lost their jobs, though you would have had trouble noticing given the emphasis given to rich people in danger of lowing money.
 
Of those 900,000 a stack will now be unable to meet their mortgage payments, and there will be another round of defaults, and assets that now are thought OK will suddenly be 'bad' again. And General Motors will see their prediction of auto sales dropping by 5 million next year. And the rest of the real economiy's problems will go on being unaddressed.
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  Quote Al Jassas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19-Sep-2008 at 11:55
Hello to you all
 
I must admitt I have no where near Graham's experience in the financial world but indeed I have read that Hoover realy did many important things that softened the crisis of 29 but didn't get credit for.
 
As Graham noted the hike in unemployment will lead to an even greater number of defaults and even less spending, a domino effect if you will. But here is the thing, aren't those people who were layed off have enough money in compensation packages to help them till they find a job? I once read that a compensation packages are quite large, in the hundreds of thousands of $.
 
Anyway, I think it was a smart move for the government to takeover the bad loans from the banks because this will lift the burden from the financial institutions and take much of the heat from them. I still think that a recession will happen but not as severe as many might think. That is unless the crisis expands beyond banks and reach money market funds. Then things will go quite nasty.
 
Al-Jassas
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  Quote hugoestr Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19-Sep-2008 at 14:41
Hi, there,

The problem that I see with Hoover and Bush administration are the ideological blinds that they have with their pop neoliberal theories.

If the Bush administration had quickly created an agency to buy "bad" loans at a discount and refinance subprime mortgages a year or two ago, a lot of this would have been avoided.

Let me stress this point: subprime borrowers could afford the early rates. What killed them were the point where the rates ballooned, after a year or two.

By buying the mortgages at a discount and making the rates affordable, people could stay in their homes reducing the foreclosure rate. Investors interested in real estate securities could buy more secure mortgage products once the chances of people being able to keep paying the mortgage was increased.

This is not a radical program: it was used during the Great Depression.

However, Bush and the GOP only believe in helping the millionaires. This solution didn't occurred to them people, and when liberal economists brought it up, it was quickly dismissed.

Now, I am pessimistic about the ideological blinders of the people involved in the fix. Like the Bush generals, many of these economics have drawn the wrong lessons from history and behave accordingly.

The only hope that I have left is that their understanding of how deep the troubles of the U.S. economy are will shake them out of their ideology and will actually make them ready to use pragmatic solutions. And I hope that it is not too late when they reach that point, if they do.
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  Quote gcle2003 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19-Sep-2008 at 14:54
Originally posted by Al Jassas

But here is the thing, aren't those people who were layed off have enough money in compensation packages to help them till they find a job? I once read that a compensation packages are quite large, in the hundreds of thousands of $.
 
I'm not all that au fait with US unemployment insurance, which varies from state to state, but while that is true if you're talking about executives senior enough to negotiate their own contracts, I don't think it's generally true of the mass of people fired.
 
There's no equivalent to the situation here for instance where employees are guaranteed a minimum of three months salary (more with longer service) on dismissal for redundancy, with, in the case of bankupts, the payment being guaranteed by the State.  (Redundancy payments rank before other creditors - apart from taxes.)
 
I'd been working for EuropeOnline for a little less than year and got four months salary from the government when the company folded in 1996. I doubt that would have happened in the US.
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  Quote Panther Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07-Oct-2008 at 04:27
Bump....
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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  Quote Panther Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07-Oct-2008 at 04:30
Originally posted by hugoestr

Hi, there,

The problem that I see with Hoover and Bush administration are the ideological blinds that they have with their pop neoliberal theories.

If the Bush administration had quickly created an agency to buy "bad" loans at a discount and refinance subprime mortgages a year or two ago, a lot of this would have been avoided.

Let me stress this point: subprime borrowers could afford the early rates. What killed them were the point where the rates ballooned, after a year or two.

By buying the mortgages at a discount and making the rates affordable, people could stay in their homes reducing the foreclosure rate. Investors interested in real estate securities could buy more secure mortgage products once the chances of people being able to keep paying the mortgage was increased.

This is not a radical program: it was used during the Great Depression.

However, Bush and the GOP only believe in helping the millionaires. This solution didn't occurred to them people, and when liberal economists brought it up, it was quickly dismissed.

Now, I am pessimistic about the ideological blinders of the people involved in the fix. Like the Bush generals, many of these economics have drawn the wrong lessons from history and behave accordingly.

The only hope that I have left is that their understanding of how deep the troubles of the U.S. economy are will shake them out of their ideology and will actually make them ready to use pragmatic solutions. And I hope that it is not too late when they reach that point, if they do.
 
Hello Hugoestr,
 
 
Of special interest, is the part where President Bush recommended a significant regulatory overhaul of the housing finance industry back in 2003. Only to be told by Barney Frank, the ranking Democrat on the Financial Services Committee that we were not facing any sort of crises?
 
Either he was grossly ignorant of the fact, or he... uuummm - Ahem... Lied for no particular reason? ***cough, cough***
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  Quote gcle2003 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07-Oct-2008 at 19:05
"None of this would have happened if George W Bush had been alive."
 
Anonymous if perceptive poster on an economics blog this morning.


Edited by gcle2003 - 07-Oct-2008 at 19:06
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