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The Future of Pakistan?

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Gharanai View Drop Down
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  Quote Gharanai Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: The Future of Pakistan?
    Posted: 25-Apr-2009 at 01:39
Originally posted by Omar al Hashim

No-one trusts the US, and the US doesn't know who it can trust.
 
Well as said by Quintus Horace that "An alliance with the powerful is never to be trusted." so I guess your first line is perfectly placed and as far as the US is concerned I guess it still do have the cards that world even don't know about it.
 
I mean just look at Musharaf, honestly he was descended from the SKY as the new ruler (just like the ferry tales) no one knew about him, same goes with Karzai again descended from SKY by US forces and no known background.
 
So they always have people for certain times, but the question is that till what time we will be expecting the US to do something for its benefits in our countries rather than thinking of we ourselves doing something for our own country.
 
 


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  Quote Suren Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25-Apr-2009 at 04:48
Pakistan will join to the motherland India!Evil Smile
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  Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25-Apr-2009 at 12:05
Pakistan will fire its nuclear missiles in all directions before it comes to that.
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  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25-Apr-2009 at 14:14
Originally posted by Sparten

Pakistan will fire its nuclear missiles in all directions before it comes to that.
 
LOL  (Although I am not so sure how funny that is.)
 
 
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  Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25-Apr-2009 at 16:10
Its not funny. If there is one thing Pakistanis of all stripes will not tolerate, its being under Indian domination. Obama administration wants Pakistan to in essence aquiece to that. Big problem
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  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25-Apr-2009 at 16:30
Originally posted by Sparten

Its not funny. If there is one thing Pakistanis of all stripes will not tolerate, its being under Indian domination. Obama administration wants Pakistan to in essence aquiece to that. Big problem
 
In conversation (purely social not official) with a few officers who are at the US Army War College, there is some thinking that longer term US policy in south Asia must be based on India.  This goes far beyond insurgent warfare, and is predicated more on commercial and strategic interests - particularly anticipated markets and lines of communication across the Indian Ocean.
 
Over the past 2-3 years, the view is that, ongoing, Pakistan may not be able to control it's own territory, may not be able to exist as a unitary state entity, and might at some time engage India militarily.  I think this goes beyond the Obama administration.
 
These officers are not on the General Staff; they are army/AF lieutenant colonels and Navy commanders, but I assume they are hearing something in their year long program. 
 
    
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  Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25-Apr-2009 at 16:45
My own reading is that the whole assumptions that the US military has on S Asia are flawed. India has as much trouble controlling its territory as Pakistan (in fact probably more, there is about 50% of Indian Territory not in Indian Gov control), that is not the issue however.
 
I would say that the US Army has tried to have an understanding of the various ethnic and regional affliations and the understanding is very shallow (Ralph Peters is an example), hell I am from the region and I don't get all of it. On the issue of longer term US interests and Indian commercial interests, well I think you have to read my earlier posts.
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  Quote Al Jassas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25-Apr-2009 at 17:01
I second Sparten.
 
The only thing joining India right now is the fear of the unknown. There are many people with interest in keeping the union (the untouchables and other religious minorities for example). There is nothing that connects Tamil Nadu or west Bengla with the Punjab or Gujurat. West Bengal could eventually join Bengladish in a union which is going to be more common sense than remaining with India. Tamil Nadu has a totally different social dynamics and economy than the rest of India. The possibility of India disintegrating into many small states is much higher in my opinion than the Pakistani government falling.
 
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  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25-Apr-2009 at 18:33
Social conversation is one thing, actual policy quite another.  Is the official attitude of the US government that Pakistan has to be seen as less valuable to US interests than India?  I don't know that.
 
However, US engagement on the ground in south Asia cannot be a long term goal.  The interests of the US are not that great there; the cultural disconnects far too enormous.  The US will not stay in Afghanistan all that long.  Afghanistan long term has no meaning for the US.  The broader strategic thinking will be, as it has to be, grounded in commercial connections and on the navy.  So far, indigenous insurgencies in India do not seem to be threatening to break up the country, and India's coastline is the more important one.
 
  
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  Quote Al Jassas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25-Apr-2009 at 22:42
Actually the social conversation is what has been happening since 99.
 
Since the Clinton administration the trend of strengthening ties with India and undermining ties with Pakistan has been ongoing. Only when Bush Jr. realised that the key to Afghanistan was in Pakistan did the relations became better.
 
Israel has played alot in this trend of the relations and with US approval many top secret technology were sold from the US via Israel (the AWACS systems and rocket systems) and in many cases without the approval of the US.
 
Even today despite all what is happening the US still sees in India an ally and in Pakistan a red herring at best. While it claim to support Pakistan on its war on terror it simply gives little support to Pakistani causes, it says nothing to India about its active support to Balochi organizations, it says nothing to India about the continuing repression of Kashmiri people even after violence has all but ended (only 500 militants remain there from the once mighty 10s of thousands and all because of Pakistan).
 
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  Quote Suren Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26-Apr-2009 at 05:26
Originally posted by Sparten

Pakistan will fire its nuclear missiles in all directions before it comes to that.
Do you like Indians that much?!Angel
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  Quote Omar al Hashim Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26-Apr-2009 at 07:35
I think US policy towards India will be more dominated by the situation in east asia than in central/west asia. India, China, and the US (including its effective imperial vassals of S Korea, Japan, Taiwan etc) have a nice little three way balance of power in the region.
It'd be hard seeing the US and India cosy up too much, because neither of them would like what the other could to in East/South East Asia with increased influence.

It really depends on how much the US & India distrust China, and what they think they can get away with that (a) they don't mind the other one getting away with, and (b) won't push minor nations to cosy up with China as insurance against a US-India alliance.
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  Quote Gharanai Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26-Apr-2009 at 13:59
Originally posted by Suren

Pakistan will join to the motherland India!Evil Smile
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Dear Suren,
India never was the motherland of Pakistan but a foster mother Wink.
 
 
Originally posted by pikeshot1600

In conversation (purely social not official) with a few officers who are at the US Army War College, there is some thinking that longer term US policy in south Asia must be based on India.  This goes far beyond insurgent warfare, and is predicated more on commercial and strategic interests - particularly anticipated markets and lines of communication across the Indian Ocean.
 
Over the past 2-3 years, the view is that, ongoing, Pakistan may not be able to control it's own territory, may not be able to exist as a unitary state entity, and might at some time engage India militarily.  I think this goes beyond the Obama administration.
 
These officers are not on the General Staff; they are army/AF lieutenant colonels and Navy commanders, but I assume they are hearing something in their year long program. 
    
 
As far the the integration of Pakistan with India is concerned, in my opinion that would be the last thing India would want, as right now India can not control just 13.5% (138,188,240) of it's population (The Muslims), how in the world would it be able to control twice larger 26% (138,188,240+173,000,000=311,188,240) population.
 
The only outcome of it would be another break away country where the winner would be Pakistan with taking all it's land back + (PLUS) the muslim land of today's India.
 
So if US is planing such an integration, I can only say that they just want to repeat the English policy of "Divide and Rule".
And for sure that's why Pakistan is so gladly helping out US, if what you say has to be taken serious. Wink
 


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  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26-Apr-2009 at 16:45

Gharanai,

There is no intimation of "integration" of the two countries.  That would not be either possible or desireable on the part of either one.  The point was which country was likely to be the more important one on which to base US policy going forward.

You are assuming the US has far more power than it does by bringing this up.  We can't even find Osama, either in his cave or in that Pakistani army hospital we sometimes hear about.  Wink
 
   

 

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  Quote Omar al Hashim Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27-Apr-2009 at 01:21
I'm not sure the US is even looking for Osama, I'm not sure it ever has been.
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  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27-Apr-2009 at 01:25
Originally posted by Omar al Hashim

I'm not sure the US is even looking for Osama, I'm not sure it ever has been.
 
I am not sure either.  If you got him, what would you do with him?  Kill him and you create a Moslem super martyr.  Arrest him, and he becomes a media super star.
 
Better that he just withers away and becomes irrelevant.
 
 
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  Quote Leonidas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10-May-2009 at 14:36
Heres a question, what if pakistan crumbles.....
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  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10-May-2009 at 15:23
Originally posted by Leonidas

Heres a question, what if pakistan crumbles.....
 
Who knows?  You would have to guess at it, but in the event of no presence of order in areas like Kashmir, India might assert it's own control over territory it considers vital.  Strategically, China has interests as well, and would be likely to act in those interests.
 
Pakistan's collapse would be a catastrophe on a number of possible levels with unpleasant consequences for everyone.  Pakistan has made it's own bed by swallowing the insurgent "cancer pill."  The country has constructed it's own second front - on it's own soil.  Any army knows you fight the war on someone else's soil if at all possible.
 
Sparten may have better insight.  I can't pretend to understand the complexities of internal politics on the subcontinent.  It is a bit easier to try if there are fewer power centers involved.  The more players, the messier and more uncertain the future.  But I tend to be pessimistic by nature.
 
  
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  Quote Gharanai Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11-May-2009 at 21:55
Originally posted by Leonidas

Heres a question, what if pakistan crumbles.....
You can say at a time like now it would be a disaster for the region surrounding it Afghanistan, India, Iran and China would be most effected with really bad consequences.
 
So I guess all these countries would be very much happy to get to gather and avoid such a situation rather than sit a side and watch.
 


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  Quote malizai_ Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11-May-2009 at 23:27
Originally posted by Suren

Pakistan will join to the motherland India!Evil Smile
 
Just like Bangladesh! Countries don't have motherlands people do.
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