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What Obama needs to do

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  Quote Parnell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: What Obama needs to do
    Posted: 23-Aug-2008 at 15:18
Its obvious since Mc Cain brought in the crooks and liars who masterminded the character destruction of John Kerry, Barack Obama will have to play tough. However, little 30 second adds about how many houses Mc Cain owns is ineffective.

What Obama needs to do is to make a great speech, adressing thousands, and completely and utterly dispel the attacks made by Mc Cain. He needs to point out the hypocrisy of the Republican smears and point to the enormous privelege to which Mc Cain hails from. He needs to describe in great detail his relatively humble roots and compare it with rich navy aristocracy boy Mc Cain. He needs to show that the American people are not mean spirited and will not tolerate further comparisons to Paris Hilton and the like.

Right now, Obama is winning over no-one by simply responding to Mc Cains attacks all the time. He needs to uneqivocally reject the charges made and fire back with great venom.
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  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23-Aug-2008 at 15:31

I am not sure Senator Obama is made that way.  How can one act with great venom if not so inclined?

Also, not related, I guess, but if as reported today, his VP choice is in fact senator Joseph Biden, he has lost the opportunity to garner more support from the South and West, and with Hispanic voters.  Biden is from Delaware, an inconsequential state with only 3 electoral votes.  The states with large Hispanic populations have at least 100 or more.

Joe Biden is an able man, but might have been a better choice for Secretary of State, with Bill Richardson (Hispanic from New Mexico) as VP.  Both could have used their foreign policy experience and connections in various ways.
 
Once more, the Democrats are in danger of turning a good chance for victory into defeat.
 
 


Edited by pikeshot1600 - 23-Aug-2008 at 15:32
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  Quote hugoestr Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23-Aug-2008 at 15:43
He, he, Pike, it sounds like you are almost wanting Democrats to lose by repeating that line over and over again. Most of the time you raise good points, but you are off with the Hispanics this time.

Hispanics are going to vote Democratic. The racist Hispanics are older; many of the older, more racists ones can't even vote.

And the Republican Party has spent the last 4 years turning them off. They are not going to flock to McCain, especially when his anti-immigrant rhetoric directed to white racists reach them. I know that for a fact

Now, Bill Richardson was not a great pick for the same reason that I give above: the Hispanic vote is going Democratic in any case, and putting a Hispanic in the ticket will drive the racists to the polls

My top choice for VP was Wesley Clark. From the South, from the military, very smart, and counting with a network of organized activists in the South. After that it would be great if Chuck Hagel would be persuaded to make a switch.

However, the VP picking requires that both parties agree to it. It must be hard to get Hagel to switch parties. And I don't know the specifics on Clark. I do know that Senator Webb from Virginia rejected becoming vice president, which made me really happy since he is a great senator.

The house ad doesn't deliver the punch that we want, but it is effective. I met yesterday with a McCain supporter and he was pretty turned off that rich out-of-touch McCain is so wealthy that he can't even keep track of how many houses he owns.

Obviously, for McCain, the fundamentals of the economy are great. But if I had married for money, as a cheap golddigger bimbo, I would feel the same way
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  Quote Al Jassas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23-Aug-2008 at 17:00

Even if had had the right to choose a hundred VPs on the ticket Obama wouldn't win. He squandered every chance he had, and these were slim, when he went on a triumphal procession in Europe, hated by all Americans, and met by masses of Letfist europeans who cheered him as if he was a rock star. Americans hate than and this is why he will lose.

 

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  Quote Parnell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23-Aug-2008 at 19:36

Pundits and the chattering classes (Us) love thinking that people vote for the VP. They don't. Polls out today show that 3% more people will be more likely to vote for Obama because of his VP - Within statistical margin of error. The effect of the VP is miniscule unless he is a complete moron. Biden has a past but is a solid politician and widely respected across the board. Biden will not make a difference, no VP candidate will make any difference.

Obama doesn't need to be vicious, he needs to be indignant. He basically has to say to the people that, 'How dare this guy have the nerve to say these things?'
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  Quote Kevin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23-Aug-2008 at 22:47
Originally posted by hugoestr

He, he, Pike, it sounds like you are almost wanting Democrats to lose by repeating that line over and over again. Most of the time you raise good points, but you are off with the Hispanics this time.

Hispanics are going to vote Democratic. The racist Hispanics are older; many of the older, more racists ones can't even vote.

And the Republican Party has spent the last 4 years turning them off. They are not going to flock to McCain, especially when his anti-immigrant rhetoric directed to white racists reach them. I know that for a fact

Now, Bill Richardson was not a great pick for the same reason that I give above: the Hispanic vote is going Democratic in any case, and putting a Hispanic in the ticket will drive the racists to the polls

My top choice for VP was Wesley Clark. From the South, from the military, very smart, and counting with a network of organized activists in the South. After that it would be great if Chuck Hagel would be persuaded to make a switch.

However, the VP picking requires that both parties agree to it. It must be hard to get Hagel to switch parties. And I don't know the specifics on Clark. I do know that Senator Webb from Virginia rejected becoming vice president, which made me really happy since he is a great senator.

The house ad doesn't deliver the punch that we want, but it is effective. I met yesterday with a McCain supporter and he was pretty turned off that rich out-of-touch McCain is so wealthy that he can't even keep track of how many houses he owns.

Obviously, for McCain, the fundamentals of the economy are great. But if I had married for money, as a cheap golddigger bimbo, I would feel the same way


With Obama and a running mate I don't think Biden was the best choice as in many ways he is just your average generic liberal Senator, is very gaffe prone, and really doesn't bring much to the ticket although he does matter in some parts outside his state especially in Suburban Philadelphia in nearby Pennsylvania. If I were Obama I would have chosen someone like Governor Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania, Senator Jim Webb of our State if he could have been persuaded or our Governor Tim Kaine even though he not quite the strongest candidate but has been a fairly good Governor and would possibly bring in Virginia's 13 electoral votes and help elsewhere as well.

With Hispanics and Richardson I think a serious racist attitude towards Hispanics is overestimated but there is economic fear of them by many working class White Americans as well as African Americans. However Richardson's ethnicity wouldn't have put him at a disadvantage, Richardson is a weak candidate though do to his rather poor speaking skills, mediocre charisma and gaffe prone nature.

Also with McCain most of those houses aren't actually owned by him but his wife's family, and the same with the money issue also and not to mention Obama is a wealthy man with a rather large and comfortable house also.               


Edited by Kevin - 23-Aug-2008 at 23:09
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  Quote King John Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23-Aug-2008 at 22:55
I agree in part with you Parnell, however, I think Biden as a VP will help Obama immensely. Biden has the foreign policy experience that many see as a short coming in Obama. I also believe that Biden will help Obama because it will allow Obama to venomously respond to McCain's attack dogs with out really getting his hands dirty. I think that one of the reasons that Kerry lost was that he was not a tough guy/fighter and he did not bring to his ticket anybody who was. Obama has made the smart choice in bringing in a VP candidate that has similar polling numbers to Hillary (he polls well with blue collar voters, Obama does not). Obama has also chosen a fighter and somebody who is a man of humble background who can point out McCain's lack of reality in understanding the economic plight of the nation. THis was evident from his first speech as VP candidate earlier today.

I would have loved to see Wesley Clarke as Obama's VP choice.

What pikeshot has failed to understand is that Biden helps sure up states like Pennsylvania which has 21 electoral votes. He helps this specifically in industrial areas like Scranton. So Biden brings more then Delaware to the table.
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  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23-Aug-2008 at 23:05
Originally posted by hugoestr

He, he, Pike, it sounds like you are almost wanting Democrats to lose by repeating that line over and over again. Most of the time you raise good points, but you are off with the Hispanics this time.

Hispanics are going to vote Democratic. The racist Hispanics are older; many of the older, more racists ones can't even vote.

And the Republican Party has spent the last 4 years turning them off. They are not going to flock to McCain, especially when his anti-immigrant rhetoric directed to white racists reach them. I know that for a fact

Now, Bill Richardson was not a great pick for the same reason that I give above: the Hispanic vote is going Democratic in any case, and putting a Hispanic in the ticket will drive the racists to the polls

My top choice for VP was Wesley Clark. From the South, from the military, very smart, and counting with a network of organized activists in the South. After that it would be great if Chuck Hagel would be persuaded to make a switch.

However, the VP picking requires that both parties agree to it. It must be hard to get Hagel to switch parties. And I don't know the specifics on Clark. I do know that Senator Webb from Virginia rejected becoming vice president, which made me really happy since he is a great senator.

The house ad doesn't deliver the punch that we want, but it is effective. I met yesterday with a McCain supporter and he was pretty turned off that rich out-of-touch McCain is so wealthy that he can't even keep track of how many houses he owns.

Obviously, for McCain, the fundamentals of the economy are great. But if I had married for money, as a cheap golddigger bimbo, I would feel the same way
 
Hugo, it may surprise and amuse you to know that I am a registered Democrat.  The Democratic Party has just been so screwed up since 1972.  They think politics exists in Ivy League academia, and foreign affairs is determined by the UN.  LOL
 
The Democrats have forgotten how to count, and how to appeal to constituencies.  As far as your assumption that Hispanics will vote democratic blindly....I am not convinced.
 
EDIT:  I just noticed your paragraph above on the racists.  You don't think racists need a reason to go to the polls other than having a Black guy running for president?  "Bill Richardson" sounds like a White guy.  Wink
 
 
 
 


Edited by pikeshot1600 - 24-Aug-2008 at 00:20
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  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23-Aug-2008 at 23:15
Originally posted by King John

I agree in part with you Parnell, however, I think Biden as a VP will help Obama immensely. Biden has the foreign policy experience that many see as a short coming in Obama. I also believe that Biden will help Obama because it will allow Obama to venomously respond to McCain's attack dogs with out really getting his hands dirty. I think that one of the reasons that Kerry lost was that he was not a tough guy/fighter and he did not bring to his ticket anybody who was. Obama has made the smart choice in bringing in a VP candidate that has similar polling numbers to Hillary (he polls well with blue collar voters, Obama does not). Obama has also chosen a fighter and somebody who is a man of humble background who can point out McCain's lack of reality in understanding the economic plight of the nation. THis was evident from his first speech as VP candidate earlier today.

I would have loved to see Wesley Clarke as Obama's VP choice.

What pikeshot has failed to understand is that Biden helps sure up states like Pennsylvania which has 21 electoral votes. He helps this specifically in industrial areas like Scranton. So Biden brings more then Delaware to the table.
 
What you fail to understand is that Pennsylvania (where I live) is more conservative than you think it is.  The population is aged, with huge numbers of seniors, and has been solid Clinton country.  The Convention is hardly over yet, and who knows what rabbits HillBillary will try to pull out of the hat?   (Roll Call, anyone?)  Gov. Ed Rendell is a Clinton man.
 
Just a hint about Scranton, and a lot of other PA industrial towns, half the population up there is cashing government or insurance company checks for their income.  Scranton was an industrial zombie after WW II when the oil industry took precedence over coal.  Now it is an industrial corpse.  The undead have become quite dead.  Social Security is the issue there, and all change is bad.
 
Pennsylvania has 21 E votes; Delaware has 3....the states with Hispanic populations have substantially (I just Googled it) ....substantially over 100.
 
Rustbelt states and east/north states like Delaware don't get it done these days.  "As Maine goes, so goes the nation" ran out of gas in the 1920s.  Since the 1960s, the demographics that matter have relocated.  The Dems keep nominating northerners in spite of the evidence.
 
 
 
 


Edited by pikeshot1600 - 24-Aug-2008 at 00:13
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  Quote Parnell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24-Aug-2008 at 00:13

The demographics have changed significantly since the Dems glory days - The focus now being on the west. Realistically the states will stay the same colour this year, with it all boiling down to what happens in the rocky mountain states and the west - Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Montana (?). Mc Cain and Obama will have a rough draw in the traditional industrial swing states (Old and new) such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin etc. and it will be decided in the west. To win there, they need to look like they understand western issues, which at the moment, they don't look like it.

The Democrats lose presidential elections because they want to. They own the governers mansion in several 'red' states all over the country, but just hand over states to the republicans without a fight. The fact of the matter is more americans are democrats than republicans, and realistically it should be relatively easy for them to win a presidential race.


Edited by Parnell - 24-Aug-2008 at 00:13
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  Quote King John Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24-Aug-2008 at 00:32
What you fail to understand is that I understand how conservative PA is. However, Kerry carried that state by winning the most populated districts - the ones including Scranton (Lackawanna), Philadelphia, Allegany, Erie, et al. He, Kerry, did not win a majority of the counties but still carried the state. This was possible because as I have said he won more of the heavily populated counties. What does this have to do Obama and Biden? Obama has not done well with voters in these counties during the primary, Biden on the other hand has been called the 3rd PA Senator and polls well in the above mentioned counties. Obama will win NY, California, New England, New Jersey, the Pacific Northwest, and Hawaii. RIght there is 173 Electoral Votes, only 97 votes short of the 270 needed to win the Presidency. If we add PA into the mix that number moves to 194. If we also add states that went Democratic in 2000 and 2004: ie MIchigan, Minnasota, Illinois, and Wisconsin that leaves Obama with 252 Electoral Votes leaving him 18 shy of Presidency. THis means that he can win the Presidency by carrying Ohio (21 EV) or any number of smaller states like W. Virginia and Virginia among others. These are all states put into play by Biden's working class blue collar support.

The Dems have only nominated Northerners in the last two elections. Bubba Clinton was from Arkansas and Gore was from Tennessee. Both are states that are definitely not Northern states. So the point that "the Dems keep nominating northerners in spite of the evidence" is ridiculous. Nominating northerners is not why they keep losing. They keep losing because they refuse to fight and do politics the way Republicans do. For instance Kerry allowed himself to be portrayed as a flip-flopper and be swift-boated had he shown some spunk and fought back it might have been a different story instead he tried to play a rope-a-dope type of politics.
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  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24-Aug-2008 at 02:02
King John:
 
You are playing with numbers that don't matter.  The numbers that matter are the demographics.  The population concentration is now South and West, not elsewhere.
 
The last president elected from the North was Jack Kennedy....in 1960.  Who did what in some county in Pennsylvania, even in Philadelphia County or Allegheny County, doesn't mean a thing when the North has been superceded to that degree.  If you want to analyze PENNSYLVANIA politics, then those counties, and their state demographics have meaning.  On the national scene, not so to any decisive degree.
 
Since 1964, the Democrats, usually with larger numbers of voters identifying themselves with the party, have lost seven of ten presidential elections, and in five of them they nominated northerners...Humphrey, McGovern, Mondale, Dukakis and Kerry.  All the elected Republican candidates have been from the South or the West.  The three Dems who won were from the South.
 
So, winners from the South and West = 10; winners from the North = 0
 
The point is, demographics rule for the most part.  It could suffer a glitch, but it isn't likely anymore.  The Democrats running guys like those Great Plainsmen, Humphrey, McGovern, Mondale, and Massachusetts men like Dukakis and Kerry keep painting themselves into a political corner.  They take constituencies for granted, and are constantly surprised when those constituencies vote for someone else.
 
Now they put up a northern Black candidate and some guy from Delaware (able or not, that is how he will be seen by much of the electorate) and they think they will carry the South and the West and the important states they must have......well, we shall see.
 
  


Edited by pikeshot1600 - 24-Aug-2008 at 02:59
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  Quote King John Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24-Aug-2008 at 02:33
They have carried the west, especially the pacific states, in the last two elections with candidates from the north and still lost. The reason the Dems have been losing has nothing to do with where the nominees are coming from, it has to do with how effective the Republicans have been at exploiting political gaffes by the Dems. Take for instance when the Republicans used the release of a convict while Dukakis was governor and a rape-murder committed by the same convict against Dukakis (this was a Bush ploy). A similar thing happened with the swift-boating. It also has to do with how effectively the Republicans paint Ivy Dem candidates as elitists when republican candidates are also for the most part ivy educated and come from the same privileged backgrounds. Compare Bush 43 and Kerry both were ivy educated but yet Bush 43 successfully painted Kerry as an elitist. So as you can see election results have little to do with demographics. It has to do with the effectiveness of each parties' propaganda.
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  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24-Aug-2008 at 02:58
Well, we disagree on that.  Smile
 
And if you include the 1964 election (LBJ - Texas), the score is
 
South and West = 11; North = 0
 
 
 


Edited by pikeshot1600 - 24-Aug-2008 at 03:01
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  Quote hugoestr Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24-Aug-2008 at 04:47
Hi, Kevin,

Webb made it very clear that he didn't want to be vice president a few months ago, so he took himself out of that one. Kaine was a mix bag; being a Southern governor was good, but he had lost some of his liberal cred in the state. And he is not very charismatic.

Richardson would be okay. He is very accomplished and has the best resume. I just don't think that he would have brought as many votes as one could probably thought. Also, having two minorities in the ticket would certainly turn off many people, especially the older ones. Never mind that Richardson is only half Mexican: Obama is only half black himself, raised by a white family, but people still think that he is mainly black.

As for wealth, let's say that Obama earned his money from the bottom up and didn't just marry a wealthy woman. And Obama still remembers what it is like not to have money since he has a platform to help middle class people and knows that the economy is hurting most Americans.

McCain says that the economy is fine. He is so wealthy that he loses track of how many houses he has. He is obviously out of touch.
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  Quote hugoestr Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24-Aug-2008 at 04:57
Hi, Pike,

So I stand corrected . As for the party being screwed up since 1972, I agree on that. However, I believe that it has matured a lot in the last 8 years. Another thing that helps a lot is that you have a generation of a lot more pragmatic people arriving to the party and becoming active in it. Not perfect yet, but much better than it was in 2000.

The biggest dramatic change that I have seen is that you actually have people talking about reaching out to poor/middle class white from the South and South West. I used to get into fight in Democratic forums when I suggested this. People are now talking about this.

As for Hispanics, they are not blindly going to vote Democratic. They are going to vote Democratic because the Republican Party has driven them to it through their failed anti-immigrant campaign. The move of Hispanics towards the Republican Party was well underway with Bush, but the last 4 years have been a massive attack on them.

Adding Richardson to the ticket would be adding wood to the fire. Even though it sounds White, Richardson has gone out of his way to brand himself as Latino (the name for Hispanic west of the Mississippi ). Some racists are going to sit the election because the economic is bitting them. However, having TWO minorities may be too much. That is the same reason why a Obama/Hillary ticket was a bad idea.
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  Quote Kevin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24-Aug-2008 at 05:27
Originally posted by hugoestr

Hi, Kevin,

Webb made it very clear that he didn't want to be vice president a few months ago, so he took himself out of that one. Kaine was a mix bag; being a Southern governor was good, but he had lost some of his liberal cred in the state. And he is not very charismatic.

Richardson would be okay. He is very accomplished and has the best resume. I just don't think that he would have brought as many votes as one could probably thought. Also, having two minorities in the ticket would certainly turn off many people, especially the older ones. Never mind that Richardson is only half Mexican: Obama is only half black himself, raised by a white family, but people still think that he is mainly black.

As for wealth, let's say that Obama earned his money from the bottom up and didn't just marry a wealthy woman. And Obama still remembers what it is like not to have money since he has a platform to help middle class people and knows that the economy is hurting most Americans.

McCain says that the economy is fine. He is so wealthy that he loses track of how many houses he has. He is obviously out of touch.


Hey Hugo!

I think that Obama could have convinced Webb otherwise about the VP spot especially since he seems ambitious and is a rising star in the Democratic Party if he isn't one already, and looking at things I think any candidate would have been better then Biden even Kaine, because keep in mind it typically isn't a good thing for the VP to overshadow the Presidential Candidate in any regard and that is why one of the reasons, I think the Obama team decided against selecting Hillary Clinton because it would have created too many problems in terms of presence on the ticket.

With Richardson I think you are right in most regards.

With McCain I feel to say that he doesn't know hardship would be false although I get what you are saying in terms of economics, However though despite his wifes wealth McCain did build a highly successful business from the very ground up back in the late 1970's/early 1980's. 


Edited by Kevin - 24-Aug-2008 at 05:28
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  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24-Aug-2008 at 16:22
hugo:
 
I am sure you will disagree, but I do not see the Democratic Party having "matured" but having splintered even more than it was before.  Democrats have prided themselves on being a party of diversity.  The problem with "diversity" is that it tends to magnify the parochial interests of and empower more groups based, not on their commonalities, but, on their differences.  So, you have, as in this election, the Democrats themselves fighting over what can only be called bigoted issues.
 
Black issues; Jewish issues; Hispanic (Latino) issues....Men who don't like Hillary, women who think Obama stole their right to the candidacy, Blacks vs Jews, Hispanics vs Blacks, Blue Collar vs everyone........"our favorite wasn't picked for the ticket and we are so pissed we will vote Republican," etc.  The "blogosphere" has magnified this immensely, and no one understands how to counter that yet.
 
IMO, Joe Biden is desperation, and (you will not like this) is the political equivalent of Dick Cheney:  He is on the ticket because the top guy, just like "W," has neither the experience nor the chops to be the top guy.  What does that say for us?  We are now in a phase where we are electing a second banana to be the president.
 
As stated above somewhere the Dems should have been able to clean house this year.  Now, with all the division, they are going to have to fight like hell just to be in it.  I personally do not think the Clintons are going to be on board at the convention.  I think they are going to try to pull something, because that is all they are capable of in politics (I know you don't agree there either).  The Hillary addicts are absolutely furious she is not on the ticket.  Obama has surrendered the podium to Bill, Hillary and Hillary man Ed Rendell BEFORE he gets to speak....has he fallen on his head?
 
Frankly, I think it is worse now than before. 
 
 
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  Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24-Aug-2008 at 20:04

I think if McCain can keep the "Solid South" republican (meaning not lose Virginia and Florida) he should win. Bush did that in 2000 and 2004. To win a dem has to break the South, thats how Clinton won; incidentally he was also a Southener. Dose anyone really think Obama can break the South? I doubt it. Gore could not even win his own state in 2000, on whom he lavished quite a bit of love as a Senator and Veep.

 
Parnell; national elections, state elections local elections each have a different dynamic. A "Blue" gov of a "red" state vice versa is irrelevent to the national electio. Arnold is the Govanator; Mitt Romney was Gov of Mass; the bluest state in the Union. Did'nt win make a dent in the elections did it.
 
 
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  Quote King John Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24-Aug-2008 at 21:32
I think Obama can break the South, specifically I see him taking Virginia, W. Virginia, and maybe even possibly Florida.
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