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If the Nazis conquered the USSR?

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  Quote antisocrates Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: If the Nazis conquered the USSR?
    Posted: 14-May-2007 at 20:38
How do you think the course of WWII would've progressed if the Nazis knocked out Russia by early 1942?  How they did is up to you; maybe the Nazis drove to Moscow instead of stopping and actually took it; maybe the offensives in 42 all succeeded; etc., etc., etc. 
 
The important thing is that Russia is in shambles and unable to offer any organized resistance to Germany, even if the Nazis failed to take whole of Russia.  Maybe the Nazis conquered all the way up to the Ural complex and all the way down to Iran.  In any case, the scenario posits that the Nazis will be able to concentrate exclusively on the Western Front by mid to late 1942 *AND* their conquest of European Russia did not entail losses anywhere close to the real history Stalingrad or Kursk losses.  Perhaps 50 or more intact divisions could be moved to the West.
 
How would this WWII end?
 
For one thing, I think Britain would be the key here.  If it falls before 45, then the Manhattan Project would be meaningless (mostly); without secure air base in Europe, there would be no means of delivering the bomb.  And I would think that Suez would fall in this scenario, because Rommel would be able to get the necessary supplies, and Montgomery would not have the numerical and materiel advantage he had in real history.
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  Quote ChickenShoes Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15-May-2007 at 15:15
I would have to agree with the theory proposed by Robert Harris in his novel "Fatherland". The means by which the Nazis would accomplish this would probably similar to the proposed plans of "The Hitler Options". Check both of those out, you can Wikipedia Fatherland and get the basic idea of what a Nazified Europe would be like. Personally I believe that the Nazis would've won if not for Hitler. Hitler often disregarded the orders of his own generals and played into his vanity and personal vendettas instead of doing the "right" thing. He stopped the advance to Dunkirk for reasons only known to him (some historians believe it to be the efficacy of Belgian artillery) therefore allowing Operation Dynamo to evacuate vital amounts of soldiers, even though they had to leave indispensable guns behind. He then decided to blitz London instead of continuing attacks on RAF fields due to the fact he was angry that the British bombed Berlin and other cities. By bombing London, he allowed the English to reestablish some important RAF bases, thus never succeeding in air supremacy over Britain. Then he quickly turned his attention to the USSR when his attempts failed to stifle the British. When his generals suggested a second drive to Moscow, he chose Stalingrad, which was not an entirely bad idea but he required two important Russian bastions be taken simultaneously. All in all he asked impossible tasks relative to his own personal desires. I think if Hitler died in 1941 and Heydrich took over or something along those lines, we might have seen a Nazi Europe.
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  Quote Ironduke Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15-May-2007 at 21:45
People often mistakenly assume that a Nazi conquest of Moscow would knock the Soviet Union out of the war.  They frequently forget that the Nazi spearhead toward Moscow was logistically overextended, with their southern flank wide open to attack.

A couple links for those who may be interested:

http://fmso.leavenworth.army.mil/documents/failures.htm

And a rather long debate on my own forum, at 1234 replies with many military experts weighing in:

http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/history-warfare/3123-could-germany-have-won-wwii.html


Edited by Ironduke - 15-May-2007 at 21:47
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  Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16-May-2007 at 04:15
The Col was rather adament that it could not be done IIRC. But I also posted a topic there with an article called "Barbarossa Re visted" which argued that it could have won the war for Germany. Could you post that?
Thanks.
 
 


Edited by Sparten - 16-May-2007 at 04:16
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  Quote Paul Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16-May-2007 at 07:16
Originally posted by Ironduke

People often mistakenly assume that a Nazi conquest of Moscow would knock the Soviet Union out of the war.  They frequently forget that the Nazi spearhead toward Moscow was logistically overextended, with their southern flank wide open to attack.

 
 
I would tend to agree with that. The Russian government would simply retreat east. A comparison exists with the Japanese in China, the occupation tied down most of their army and all of their best troops, effectively costing them the war against the allies. Germany would be in a similar boat occupying only the west of the Soviet Union with a decade or long to task ahead to control the whole country.
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  Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16-May-2007 at 07:23
if soviet russia was not a factor, then i think the war would have lasted until nukes got brought into germany in some way, either through britain or from the east. most likeley a night raid from an aircraft carrier in the atlantic though
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  Quote pekau Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16-May-2007 at 10:37
Originally posted by Paul

Originally posted by Ironduke

People often mistakenly assume that a Nazi conquest of Moscow would knock the Soviet Union out of the war.  They frequently forget that the Nazi spearhead toward Moscow was logistically overextended, with their southern flank wide open to attack.

 
 
I would tend to agree with that. The Russian government would simply retreat east. A comparison exists with the Japanese in China, the occupation tied down most of their army and all of their best troops, effectively costing them the war against the allies. Germany would be in a similar boat occupying only the west of the Soviet Union with a decade or long to task ahead to control the whole country.
 
Definitely, though it is something to think about. In Napoleon's time, Tsar simply fled from Moscow to seek refuge in St. Petersburg. But Stalin, against his advisors' wishes, refused to leave Moscow. Depending on how crazy Stalin would have at that time... but if Stalin stayed in Moscow and died, the Russian resistance would certainly be weakened unless another strong Russian leader is found.
 
If Soviet Union falls.... wow, that would really suck. Nazi Germany can easily concentrate their army to North Africa, and Middle East for plenty of oil supplies. That would tick the Americans for sure, and their industrial might may fade over the time. Britain's economy is dying, and their manpower is not enought to face Germans directly... so all they can do is watch and wait for American reinforcement... but I don't know if Americans can take on Japanese, Germans and oil blockade...
     
   
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  Quote ChickenShoes Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16-May-2007 at 11:22
I agree that the Nazis would never conquer the USSR, endless guerilla warfare and resistance would follow, but the USSR would become a rump state and it would be substantially weakened.  I think zealo has a good idea, if the USSR was defeated, the war would be endless until one side nuked the other.
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  Quote DesertHistorian Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16-May-2007 at 12:11
Even if some how Nazi Germany defeated the USSR by 1942, and were some how able to free up more troops and equipment for the Western front, the addition of the United States into the war would have eventually led to the same outcome. Mainly because the United States industrial centers were not open to attack, and even with the German U-boats operating in the North Atlantic, they could not stop the fleets of Liberty ships going to England with supplies and troops. The US was building them faster than the Germans could sink them, so the outcome would have eventually been the same, although maybe delayed by a year or so.
 
One of the biggest turning points on the Western front, other than the Battle of Britain, was the introduction of US heavy bombers, B-17's, B-24's, B26, as they had the advantage in range and bomb load, something the Germans were never able to match. That would have contributed to the same outcomes as the Germans lagged in their development and use of jet fighters, and V-2 weapons.
 
 
 
 
Originally posted by antisocrates

How do you think the course of WWII would've progressed if the Nazis knocked out Russia by early 1942?  How they did is up to you; maybe the Nazis drove to Moscow instead of stopping and actually took it; maybe the offensives in 42 all succeeded; etc., etc., etc. 
 
The important thing is that Russia is in shambles and unable to offer any organized resistance to Germany, even if the Nazis failed to take whole of Russia.  Maybe the Nazis conquered all the way up to the Ural complex and all the way down to Iran.  In any case, the scenario posits that the Nazis will be able to concentrate exclusively on the Western Front by mid to late 1942 *AND* their conquest of European Russia did not entail losses anywhere close to the real history Stalingrad or Kursk losses.  Perhaps 50 or more intact divisions could be moved to the West.
 
How would this WWII end?
 
For one thing, I think Britain would be the key here.  If it falls before 45, then the Manhattan Project would be meaningless (mostly); without secure air base in Europe, there would be no means of delivering the bomb.  And I would think that Suez would fall in this scenario, because Rommel would be able to get the necessary supplies, and Montgomery would not have the numerical and materiel advantage he had in real history.
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  Quote Paul Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16-May-2007 at 14:54
Originally posted by DesertHistorian

One of the biggest turning points on the Western front, other than the Battle of Britain, was the introduction of US heavy bombers, B-17's, B-24's, B26, as they had the advantage in range and bomb load, something the Germans were never able to match. That would have contributed to the same outcomes as the Germans lagged in their development and use of jet fighters, and V-2 weapons.
 
 
I really think the allied bombing campaign had little effect on the outcome of the war.
 
I would also hardly consider these planes heavy bombers, I think medium bombers would be more accurate.
B17 - 2724kg bomb load
B24 - 3992kg
B26 - 1818kg
 
I think the status heavy bombers more suits these planes.
Lancaster - 9800kg bomb load
B29 - 9070kg
 
 
 


Edited by Paul - 17-May-2007 at 08:40
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  Quote Byzantine Emperor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17-May-2007 at 11:11
This is an alternative history scenario and needs to be in the Historical Amusement forum.  I will move it there.  Thanks!
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  Quote aghart Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17-May-2007 at 15:58
Even if Hitler had conquered Russia I doubt  that It would have had any outcombe on the result of the war except maybe make it last a little longer.  Remember Germany without having a second front could not defeat the UK in 1940.  Britain was getting stronger and stronger  but still kept the bulk of her army & air force at home ( and the strongest elements of the Royal Navy in home waters). This concentration of forces for home defence actually cost us dear in the middle east and especially in the far east where limited resources ensured intial defeat against Japan.
 
This concentration of forces in the UK would have ensured that a German invasion of the UK would be doomed to failure whenever it took place. Once the USA in the war the outcome was decided. How and when were the only unknown factors and the result of the war in Russia would have had little effect in the final  outcome in the end
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  Quote pekau Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17-May-2007 at 18:33
Originally posted by ChickenShoes

I agree that the Nazis would never conquer the USSR, endless guerilla warfare and resistance would follow, but the USSR would become a rump state and it would be substantially weakened.  I think zealo has a good idea, if the USSR was defeated, the war would be endless until one side nuked the other.
 
At that time, nuke would be really a psychological weapon. It took about three years just to produce one atomic bomb. How many of them could US possibily make before Germany turns to Britain? And Japan will be reinforced to distract US troops in the Pacific. US would go for Germans first, since if Britain falls... US falls as well. Germans would pay more attention to Japan, and send some men to upgrade the Japanese army. North African front will be easily taken out by Germans... but Britain still has sea and air supremacy. Hmm... let's see. I heard that Germans were working on air fighters using jet fuels... which may have challenged and even beat the Britain's air supremacy. And once this happen, sea supremacy will slowly lose its signifance. Many German invaders will die in sea, but there will be enough to land if Germans get air superiority... and once Germans land... Britain's out of the game. Only US and perhaps China have chance against the Axis.
 
China's effective resistance looks doubtful, since Japan was able to dominate China even when US began their counterattack, which would not happen since Germans are still in the game. With German help, Japan might be able to regain air supremacy (Zero with jet fuels sound scary to any air forces). But Germans should make sure that as America weakens, Germans should plan their inevitable betrayal against Japan.
     
   
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  Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17-May-2007 at 18:46
Originally posted by aghart

Even if Hitler had conquered Russia I doubt  that It would have had any outcombe on the result of the war except maybe make it last a little longer.  Remember Germany without having a second front could not defeat the UK in 1940.  Britain was getting stronger and stronger  but still kept the bulk of her army & air force at home ( and the strongest elements of the Royal Navy in home waters). This concentration of forces for home defence actually cost us dear in the middle east and especially in the far east where limited resources ensured intial defeat against Japan.
 
This concentration of forces in the UK would have ensured that a German invasion of the UK would be doomed to failure whenever it took place. Once the USA in the war the outcome was decided. How and when were the only unknown factors and the result of the war in Russia would have had little effect in the final  outcome in the end
 
What was the goal of invading Russia?  To get its strategic oil reserves and open another corridor to the middle east.  The middle east and subsequently north africa.  There is the chance that Turkey and Iran would have become client states and supplied more man power, German trained and led like the romanian and other axis forces.  From there North Africa would be attacked from two fronts and India would be left wide open from the west with the japanese encraoching from the East.
 
Britain's empire would be smashed.
 
How does that weigh into the equation?
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  Quote ChickenShoes Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17-May-2007 at 22:42
 What was the goal of invading Russia?  To get its strategic oil reserves and open another corridor to the middle east.  The middle east and subsequently north africa.  There is the chance that Turkey and Iran would have become client states and supplied more man power, German trained and led like the romanian and other axis forces.  From there North Africa would be attacked from two fronts and India would be left wide open from the west with the japanese encraoching from the East.
 
Britain's empire would be smashed.
 
How does that weigh into the equation?
[/QUOTE]
 
The goal was to kill all the 'inhuman' races of the USSR and provide living space for the German people.
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  Quote pekau Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18-May-2007 at 00:24
Originally posted by ChickenShoes

 What was the goal of invading Russia?  To get its strategic oil reserves and open another corridor to the middle east.  The middle east and subsequently north africa.  There is the chance that Turkey and Iran would have become client states and supplied more man power, German trained and led like the romanian and other axis forces.  From there North Africa would be attacked from two fronts and India would be left wide open from the west with the japanese encraoching from the East.
 
Britain's empire would be smashed.
 
How does that weigh into the equation?
 
The goal was to kill all the 'inhuman' races of the USSR and provide living space for the German people.
 
Don't underestimate Britain. They are more powerful than you think. Until Germans manage to land on Britain, German victory is not guaranteed. The mass production of jet fighters may change the tide of air warfare... but I don't think Germans can gain sea superiority.


Edited by pekau - 18-May-2007 at 00:26
     
   
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  Quote think Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18-May-2007 at 01:25
If Germany could take the East then i dont see how the Americans could take the West, no way man.

Before you ask why America couldnt, think of this first. How many casualties was America willing to take before the war became severely unpopular ?

Could the Americans take a full frontal assualt from the Wehrmacht, SS an Luftwaffe ?

Remember the camps had not been found yet, there was so ammunition to use against the Germans. More or less there was no propoganda to send home..



Edited by think - 18-May-2007 at 01:27
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  Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18-May-2007 at 06:26
Originally posted by ChickenShoes

Originally posted by Zagros

 What was the goal of invading Russia?  To get its strategic oil reserves and open another corridor to the middle east.  The middle east and subsequently north africa.  There is the chance that Turkey and Iran would have become client states and supplied more man power, German trained and led like the romanian and other axis forces.  From there North Africa would be attacked from two fronts and India would be left wide open from the west with the japanese encraoching from the East.
 
Britain's empire would be smashed.
 
How does that weigh into the equation?
 
The goal was to kill all the 'inhuman' races of the USSR and provide living space for the German people.
 
No that wasn't the goal, that was justification, the Germans' entitlement to those resources.  Every war documentary on the subject I have watched, at least every objective one has stated this to be the goal.
 
Pekau, Britain would not have been able to match the battle hardened Germans of the Eastern front in the middle east had they won, no way - far too overstretched for one thing. 
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  Quote ChickenShoes Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18-May-2007 at 11:17

If Germany enacted Operation Sphinx or Felix they probably could have won. That Operation involved seizing Gibraltar, Malta, and eventually Egypt. A few months of strangulating Britain in the Mediterranean and depriving them from Eastern supplies would have crushed them. Then Operation Sea Lion would have been irresistable. British archives opened in the late 90's showed that Churchill was so close to being replaced in office by Lord Halifax, an appeaser of the 30's. So say something like Sphinx happened, Churchill would definitely have been ousted because he was prepared to fight until every Brit lay dead with a Union Jack in his hand.

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  Quote ChickenShoes Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18-May-2007 at 11:21
Originally posted by think

If Germany could take the East then i dont see how the Americans could take the West, no way man.

Before you ask why America couldnt, think of this first. How many casualties was America willing to take before the war became severely unpopular ?

Could the Americans take a full frontal assualt from the Wehrmacht, SS an Luftwaffe ?

Remember the camps had not been found yet, there was so ammunition to use against the Germans. More or less there was no propoganda to send home..

 
I totally agree with you. American casualties in Europe were only 250,000...that's absolutely nothing. Also, at the end of the war, the American government was securing the safety of some terrible Nazis like Klaus Barbie in order to receive intelligence against the Soviets. The Americans hoped to occupy as much of the West as it good in order to secure horizons for a war against the USSR, but that would have been incredibly unpopular at home.
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