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Can the EU become a superpower like the U.S.?

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Winterhaze13 View Drop Down
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  Quote Winterhaze13 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Can the EU become a superpower like the U.S.?
    Posted: 12-Dec-2004 at 11:13

I've decided to bend the rules a little bit by recreating a forum discussion that was locked out by administration becase of conflict between two members. So, I must remain firm in my stance that I will not tolerate any offensive postings of any kind. If someone fails to comply I will confront them my self.

I decided to reopen this discussion because in the short time the original was accessable it was very popular with AE members so I can't understand why it was locked. I will accept any implication the administration may choose to impose on me. However, I greatly resent that the original forum was locked up when there are so many forums that hold no intellectual validity.

Therefore, in this forum I would like to discuss whether the European Union is capable of becoming an Economic and Mlitary Superpower like the United States. If you need any ideas, please read the orginal forum. Thank you and let's debate!! 

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  Quote Romano Nero Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12-Dec-2004 at 17:38

My opinion:

The EU is already an economic superpower as it outproduces and outweighs USA in each and every field. Plus Europe is a healthy economy, with only average  deficits and has got an extremely healthy and vibrant currency. OTOH, USA has got a humangous deficit and bases most of it's economic strength on the power of the dollar.

Military superpower in the range of USA, Europe is not likely to become in the next years. USA has to pay a humangous social cost in order to keep an extraordinarily high spending to maintain it's capability to project her power worldwide and Europe has not shown that is willing to pay such a price, even if all EU members follow Germany and France in the creation of Euroforce.

Europe is perfectly capable of defending herself, even without the help of USA, but does not have the means to project her power outside the continent.

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  Quote Cywr Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12-Dec-2004 at 18:07
US still beats EU on GDP per capita IIRC.
Arrrgh!!"
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  Quote Genghis Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12-Dec-2004 at 19:53
And isn't the European economy rather stagnant?  Especially in places like Germany and the former eastern bloc.
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  Quote Romano Nero Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13-Dec-2004 at 02:24

Originally posted by Genghis

And isn't the European economy rather stagnant?  Especially in places like Germany and the former eastern bloc.

Yes, USA has a higher GDP per capita than Europe (IIRC USA is #2 on the world rankings, far behind #1 Luxemburg) but that does mean very little, due to the buildout of the American economy: In USA a very small minority of people (something like 1.5%) controls about 84% of the national income. So, if you take out the "extremely rich", what is left is VERY low compared to the European standards.

Europe's wealthier countries have a wealthier middle class than USA (this might not sit well with those coming from USA, but it's true) and throughout Europe the poor are much better off than their American counterparts (due to increased social spendings, free healthcare and schooling for everybody etc.). That is because of two reasons:

1. Too few earning too much in USA

2. Extremely high "defense" spendings again in USA

Also, constant growth is not necessarily a good thing. When you reach a certain level (for instance the one Germany has reached) and what you yearn for is social stability, you don't go have to seek for more and more growth - it only shall produce social instability and greater disrepancy between the rich and the poor (what we see happening in USA in the past 15 years constantly). And there is one little thing called standards of living.

Growth is just a numerical figure. GDP per capita is another figure. Standards of living is a completely different thing altogether.

I'll give you an example: I am living in Greece for the past few years. Previously I've lived in Italy, France and Germany. My income during my stay in Greece is like 65-70% of what I got when I was in Germany (for the same - roughly - job done - and that was 5 years ago).

Yet, my standard of living has vastly improved, even with less money. I've got a bit more time, I've got more things to do with my time and money, things are overall cheaper than in Germany, the pace is not exhaustive or inhuman as it was sometimes in Germany... I am living better. On the contrary, my relatives in NYC are working their butts off (they got a little Italian restaurant) for 90+ hours a week, and all they know of life is that it's hard. Out of three kids (cousins of mine) only one managed to actually go to college - the other two, although accepted by quite fancy schools, had to stay at home to help run the business. Quite a difference, I must say.

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  Quote Genghis Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14-Dec-2004 at 19:20

Here's a report by the two Swedish economists that accounts for the higher rates of growth, and much higher GDP per capita of the US than Europe, I found it very, very interesting.  Their arguments are objective, well-presented, and sited with extremely thorough statistics:

http://www.timbro.com/euvsusa/pdf/EU_vs_USA_English.pdf

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  Quote Romano Nero Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15-Dec-2004 at 11:27

Ah. Genghis my friend, I wouldnt mind accepting such a study at face value, if it wasnt conducted by TIMBRO, http://www.timbro.com/, a swedish ultra-liberal (in the European meaning of the term: you can call it neo-con, thats its rough equal in American terminology), ultra-capitalist, ultra-pro-free market, think tank. One of their most acclaimed publications is in defense of global capitalism.

Hardly unbiased.

So I discard the whole problematic, and of course their assumptions which are speculative and not based on hard data but on their expectations and implications on how to run an effective economy and the comments.

Lets stick to the data, then.

I wrote (in the above post) that the GDP of USA is higher than that of Europe. I didnt said otherwise. Also, I conceded that the growth rate of US economy is higher than the European medium.

Both these figures apply to the whole economy not to individuals.

What does that mean? Lets make it really simple.

There are 100 people and there is 1 million dollars available to cover the needs of all 100 of them. If we go by the US formula, 1 of those people shall get 800.000, 14 of those people shall get 12.500 each, and the 85 remaining shall share (not equally, some would get more, some less) the remaining 25.000.

That is the social buildup of USA. In Europe, there would be 2 men getting from 260.000 each, 27 people would get around 14.000 each and the remaining 71 would share 81.000 dollars.

Far from perfect, but still a great deal better than USA.

So, if the medium (thats what the GDP stands for, the medium) rises 5% in a year, this doesnt mean that this growth is applied equally across the board. On the contrary, the higher the growth is, the lesser classes get less. The best evidence for that is this: In 1978, the example I presented for Europe would apply at USA in a rough level! Its getting only worst every year, since USA switched Neo-Classical in Reagans times.

The Timbro analysis presents the medium wages as well. Of course what they fail to mention is that this is again a medium. So, while the average wage of say construction workers might be barely enough to make a living for and the average pay for someone working at McDonalds doesnt even cover the cost for taking the bus everyday to work, we have the CEOs of all large corporations getting paid more than 1 million dollars a month and that doesnt include the huge bonuses and gifts they grant to themselves. The disparity between the high-level executives and even the mid-level ones, is a huge issue of debate in USA as well. Its getting worst every year.

The Swedish liberal think-tank people are honest enough (must be that they are Swedish) to admit that the GDP is only a yardstick of material prosperity at macro level. They are not honest enough to include the real defining factors of the prosperity of a nation as a whole, and not just a small group of people in it. Think about this: if the guy living in the next block acquires a billion dollars, how does that makes you wealthier?

I certainly hope that you will find a couple of analysts who do not belong to the extremists of the "Free for all" right wing, so you can further your knowledge about this matter. If you only read those who agree with you, what's the point of reading them? Enforcing your arguments?

One sided arguments are usually weak.

 

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  Quote Genghis Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15-Dec-2004 at 12:19

If you actually read the report, you would see that they present plenty of statistical evidence that shows the fallacy of arguments made by liberal "economists".  They statistically show beyond a reasonable doubt that the US is not the have and have-not society you accuse us of being.  They show that all levels of American society live with much more material amenities than Europeans and that the American people do not live in squalor while CEO's dine on Dom Perignon and caviar.

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  Quote Romano Nero Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15-Dec-2004 at 14:48

Yes, I see. I've read the report - the whole of it. Funny thing. Some date are from dubious sources (I for sure know that the statistics for several EU countries are pretty off, especially concerning phones and cars - google yourself) while some other don't prove didly (yes, Americans are happier because they own 1 TV set more than Europeans per 100 people...). As I said, I've read it. It was... funny.

I guess the fact that it comes from neo-cons "economists" is enough for you and you won't even consider alternatives.

As everything "liberal" (by the US definition, ie. what we would call here "non-conservatives") is crap, right?

Yes, Faith is an interesting beast. It resists any logic, any rationale, any dialogue. You got Faith, you don't need no crappy liberals, uh?

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  Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15-Dec-2004 at 16:06
liberal economy is capitalist economy. What is called 'liberal' in the United States is in fact socialist (libertarian socialist, to be precise).
Besides that, ir's more logiscal to call capitalism liberalism. Capitalist countries usually have many economic liberties. 'American liberals' oppose (too many) economic liberties.
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  Quote Genghis Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15-Dec-2004 at 19:35
Originally posted by Romano Nero

Yes, I see. I've read the report - the whole of it. Funny thing. Some date are from dubious sources (I for sure know that the statistics for several EU countries are pretty off, especially concerning phones and cars - google yourself) while some other don't prove didly (yes, Americans are happier because they own 1 TV set more than Europeans per 100 people...). As I said, I've read it. It was... funny.

I guess the fact that it comes from neo-cons "economists" is enough for you and you won't even consider alternatives.

As everything "liberal" (by the US definition, ie. what we would call here "non-conservatives") is crap, right?

Yes, Faith is an interesting beast. It resists any logic, any rationale, any dialogue. You got Faith, you don't need no crappy liberals, uh?

Way to dodge the question and try to belittle my intellect comrade.

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  Quote Romano Nero Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15-Dec-2004 at 23:20

I would appreciate if you didn't try to belittle my arguments by calling me - for the second time - "comrade".

According to your ideals I could call you "kamerad" (in the German way... see Nazionalsocialistisches partei) and that would label you as "a nazi" as you label me "a commie".

I am not belittling your intellect, you are, by your constant refusal to engage in dialogue, by just stating your faith to the happy free for all neo-cons.

As I said before, if an argument can't stand the trial by debate, it ain't worth much. You must be aware of that, as you constantly avoid debating anything regarding your faith.

 

 

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  Quote Winterhaze13 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16-Dec-2004 at 12:21
I'd appreciate it if we can go back to discussing the topic at hand. This forum is not meant to discuss which economy is greater, but whether the EU  is capable of countering U.S. economic supremacy. So, let's please return to that discussion and cease with the political argumentation.   
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  Quote Romano Nero Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16-Dec-2004 at 15:35

Originally posted by Winterhaze13

I'd appreciate it if we can go back to discussing the topic at hand. This forum is not meant to discuss which economy is greater, but whether the EU  is capable of countering U.S. economic supremacy. So, let's please return to that discussion and cease with the political argumentation.   

I beg your pardon but that's precisely the point: There is no US economic supremacy. There appears to be a 7% distance in the GDP (and we all know now how dillusional this measure is) and there is a higher growth rate of USA than the main Euroeconomies (Germany and France, that is).

But that does not mean US has any "economic supremacy", on the contrary. And I am not talking about the widening gap between poor and rich, or about the social unrest that is bound to break loose in the near future. I am talking about sheer numbers.

USA has a deficit 11X the combined deficit of the European economies together. The dollar is still strong, but the only factor really keeping them at track (and the dollar strong) is the US military might. USA is the sole superpower and has the means to pull one string or another. That's what keeps them going.

Any other country, without the military supremacy USA enjoys, irregardles how large and strong economically, having the deficit of USA, would've collapsed.

IF Europe pulls truly together (joint defense) USA won't be much worth as an ally. So in a few years, if everything works out fine, we'll be able to cut off the oxygen of the US economy, by denying them what they get today for free: international support for their currency (which keeps the US inflation at minimal, while it should - according to the deficit - go through the roof).

But we still shall value USA as a business partner. So, most probably, Europe won't let USA collapse, on a pure gain-basis. USA is buying many, many Europan products. The US exports to EU countries are 1/2 of their imports from the same countries.

Why would we want to lose a business partner like that?

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  Quote Winterhaze13 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16-Dec-2004 at 15:42

Yes, I understand that the U.S. has not dominated the world economy since the early 1960s, but my intentions in my last posting was to revert attention back to the topic since it has become quite clear that this discussion is getting out of hand and departing from the actual perpose.

I think that if the EU eliminates their budgetary deficits and begin to produce in the positive it would counter U.S. economic power. In Germany and France the GDP per Capita divided by the hours worked is higher than the United States average. Therefore, Americans work more because they must rely on higher incomes.   

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  Quote Genghis Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16-Dec-2004 at 21:46

Originally posted by Romano Nero

As I said before, if an argument can't stand the trial by debate, it ain't worth much. You must be aware of that, as you constantly avoid debating anything regarding your faith.

You say this, but I'm the only one whose cited outside evidence, which is based upon US Census and Eurostat statistics, and all you've done is make gross generalizations and pull numbers out of thin air.

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  Quote Romano Nero Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17-Dec-2004 at 05:14

the 11th commandment: thou shall not ask for facts and number if thou don't really want to read them

 

Life expectancy

USA: 77.43
Belgium: 78.44
France: 79.44
Netherlands: 78.68
Germany: 78.54
Luxembourg: 78.58

http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/

Deficit au nuveau

The US trade deficit widened by more than expected in October, hitting record levels after higher oil prices raised import costs, figures have shown. The trade shortfall was $55.5bn (29bn), up 9% from September, the Commerce Department said. That pushed the 10 month deficit to $500.5bn.

Imports rose by 3.4%, while exports increased by only 0.6%.

A weaker dollar also increased the cost of imports, though this should help drive export demand in coming months.

Source:
BBC

More facts, data, numbers

Since 1980, average income for the bottom 98% of the US workforce has increased at an average rate of 0.28% less than indexed inflation, annually. The average workers real income has declined by 6.72%.

www.census.gov

Since 1980, Health Insurance coverage and benefits for the the bottom 98% of the US workforce has been reduced an average of 2.62% annually. The average workers health coverage has declined by 62.88%. In real terms, more workers are paying part or all the costs of health insurance, and more workers are not insured at all. As this is not an item part of indexed inflation, this cost, adds to the decline of the average workers real income. In dollar costs against average income, the estimated decline is anywhere from a low of 4.82% of income, to a high of 11.61% of income.

Thus the average workers real income has declined by a minimum average of 11.54%, or a maximum average of 18.33%.

Since 1980, Pension coverage and benefits for the the bottom 98% of the US workforce has been reduced an average of 3.71% annually. The average workers Pension coverage has declined by 89.04%. In real terms, more workers are paying part or all the costs of any form of Pension plan and more workers have no Pension Plan at all. As this is not an item part of indexed inflation, this cost, adds to the decline of the average workers real income. Trying to calculate the value of this loss is quite complex. Suffice to say, most workers currently employed will not retire to an adequate Pension, but will instead, survive on food stamps, social assistance, food banks and Wal Mart greeter jobs.

The easiest way to cataloge the differences, is that in 1960,.
- the cost of a new car was less than half the average workers annual income,
- the average cost of a home was less than the average workers income,
- the majority of employees and their families were covered by a employer provided Health Care plan,
- the majority of employees had an indexed to inflation employer provided Pension Plan,
- the majority of employees supported single income families.

in 2004,.
- the cost of the cheapest new car is the average workers annual income,
- the average cost of a home is ten times the average workers income,
- the majority of employees and their families have no Health Care plan,
- the majority of employees have no Pension Plan, and cannot afford to save for their 401s.
- the majority of employees support double income families living in debt and poverty.

The upper 2% of the US Workforce on the other hand have done very well indeed, with an annual average of 171% increase in wages .

And from the good, ole LA Times

The government would have to borrow an estimated $1 trillion to $2 trillion over 10 years to replace the diverted payroll taxes and pay traditional Social Security benefits to today's retirees.

---

But some analysts were skeptical of the prospect of Bush's expected plan, still in sketchy form, to borrow money to restructure Social Security.

"I think it would be negative for the dollar," said Sung Won Sohn, chief economist at Wells Fargo Bank in Minneapolis. "The reason we're borrowing $1.8 billion every day from overseas is in part because of our huge budget deficit. If you're telling the markets that it's going to get larger, the markets will worry

 

...comments? worries? Arguments?

edited for clarity



Edited by Romano Nero
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  Quote Winterhaze13 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17-Dec-2004 at 11:12
How long will it take for the new eastern European Union countries to equal the western Europan countries in GDP per capita. I can't imagine that it will take too long, by joining the EU these countries have greater access to western European markets. When Ireland joined the EU they were far behind Western Europe in GDP per capita but have now propelled themselves into the top of the EU in productivity.
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  Quote cattus Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17-Dec-2004 at 13:22
Thats a good question, interested on opinions of that also.
Just read that even though doors are opening for Turkey, it could another 10 years before they are integrated.
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  Quote cavalry4ever Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12-Jan-2005 at 15:11
Economic superpower yes, miltary no. I think Europeans got world domination out of their system or systems. At this time US is spending on military more than the whole planet combined. I don't think this is acceptable  to Europeans.
I think that Europe will emerge as a consensus builder, trying to fix the world by economic means and working closely with UN and maybe providing moderating effect to US policies.


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