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The future of the tank ...

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bagelofdoom View Drop Down
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  Quote bagelofdoom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: The future of the tank ...
    Posted: 13-Sep-2006 at 02:14
thanks for the offer, but I found a copy of the article at http://www.aei.org/publications/filter.all,pubID.24584/pub_detail.asp.

There's no need to photograph it or anything.  Thanks though.

edit:

I have since read the article.  It makes a number of very good points.  I had not really taken the line of thinking that I began in discussing the end of the tank this far, but it is true.  The US needs more infantry, and since being infantry is not exactly a fun job, I wonder how we will get them. 

edit 2:

After reading the above article, I decided that it was time to hit the hay.  I lay down and grabbed my book, which just so happened to be Starship Troopers.  I was towards the beginning, reading along, when suddenly something jumped out at me, something that is perfectly applicable to the difference between the realists and the technophiles in the current military debate.  Robert A. Heinlein more or less paraphrases what Kagan says.  Here's the quote that jumped at me:

"'If you wanted to teach a baby a lesson, would you cut its head off?'
'Why no sir!'
'Of course not.  you'd paddle it ... War is not violence and killing pure and simple, war is controlled violence, for a purpose.  The purpose of war is to support your government's decisions by force.  The purpose is never to be killing the enemy just to be killing him ... but to make him do what you want him to do.'"

To bring this back to a discussion of the tank: the tank, like the airplane, exists only to kill the enemy.  It supports the infantry as they attempt to influence the enemy, but doesn't have an application besides brute force.  A man on his own feet can shoot someone lethally, shoot them non-lethally, use nonlethal weapons, or simply knock a person down with a well aimed fist.  A tank can destroy another tank, or kill a man with a machine gun.  It can run someone over.  However, in terms of modulated force, it can't do much.  Infantry is the only thing that can determine just how much damage it will do.  That is why I see the death of the tank.  Once it's firepower can be more or less copied by a man with the ability to discriminate, then it will go the way of the dinosaur and he will go the way of the mammal. 

Forgive any gramatical errors, right now it is getting rather late and I'm not really sure that I'm thinking straight. 





Edited by bagelofdoom - 13-Sep-2006 at 04:14
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  Quote xristar Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14-Sep-2006 at 12:55

The point is not only the firepower but also the protection. The infantry has mortars and bazookas, that pretty much do the same damage with a tank's gun. Mortars act as artillery, and bazookas take out MG nests and vehicels (even tanks).

But still, when the land army wants to attack a prepared position, can it rely on mortars and bazookas only? They unleash the same firepower with a tank. Well, it can't. Because when an infantryman is exposed he is sooo easy to kill. While a tank can come out in the open, fire again and again against certain position, take many hits, and still survive.
Especially now, that synthetic armour has been invented, that have increased greatly the survivability of the tank, I think the tank got another like 50 years of life.
 
In your comparisson with cavalry you fail to see something: That heavy cavalry may have lost its key role, but continued to exist until the 19th century.

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  Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14-Sep-2006 at 13:51
I for one if I was a tanker would LOVE to take on those new Stryker Brigs. Sure the Stryker is easily transportable and what not, but in a battle even an old T-55 would send the Stryker the way of its namesakes.
 
And Iraq is not a war as much as it is an internal security effort. Those require a different TOE than say an armoured thrust into Iran. I have no doubt that US 3 ID, 1 cav Div and two additional Divisions, could destroy Iranain armies as fast as the mullahs could send them, but if gose into Iran with the new light swift Brigades then what. Sure they could get there quickly, but you can be sure if they don't have armour (and proper armour) to support them, the Iranians would send every tank in their arsenal to chew these new light and swift forces out. ANd chew them out they will.
 
Finally, while it is true that Tank vs Tank battles are a large part of any war, we seem to forget one salient fact, armour is best used in a vacuum, and indeed the best example of the use of armour, the 1940 Ardennes offensive was in a vacuum. Armour can do what no other piece of equipment can do, and that is it can move fast and hit hard. It can smash through enemy lines, (and infantry facing armour, I'll bet on armour) or outflank them, exploit weaknesses in the line. I would be dmaned terrified if I faced two armoured Divs, they could simply destroy my forces, and I would only send my best armour against them. Against Strykers they fera would be not nearly as great.
 
 
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  Quote J.M.Finegold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14-Sep-2006 at 14:13
Originally posted by Sparten


Sure the Stryker is easily transportable and what not, but in a battle even an old T-55 would send the Stryker the way of its namesakes.


You are comparing apples and oranges.  The Stryker is an APC, the T-55 is a main battle tank.


And Iraq is not a war as much as it is an internal security effort.


No, the examples are directly relevant to the first few months of war and to the First Persian Gulf War, not to the occupation of Iraq itself.


Armour can do what no other piece of equipment can do, and that is it can move fast and hit hard. It can smash through enemy lines, (and infantry facing armour, I'll bet on armour) or outflank them, exploit weaknesses in the line. I would be dmaned terrified if I faced two armoured Divs, they could simply destroy my forces, and I would only send my best armour against them. Against Strykers they fera would be not nearly as great.


You missed the entire point of the thread.  The thread is not arguing exchanging armour for light APCs, but for lighter armour.  For example, as opposed to the M1A2 Abrams a tank that weighs ~40t and that relies on technology more so than it does on steel. 

In other words, we're arguing about the effectivity of the projected light future main battle tank.
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  Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15-Sep-2006 at 00:28
Light armour? That is a IMO even more dangerous than IFV's. Armour is what makes a MBT,the ability to take a massive amount of punishmnent.
 
Now, if this hypothetical light tank has the armour  protection qualities of say an M1, then I am all for it. But if it tries to maximize speed over armour, then well its in trouble, what with modern optics and fire control systems.
 
And the third fact often missed in the whole air transportable debate, not only the MBT, but its whole logistics suppport system must also be air transportable.
 
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  Quote J.M.Finegold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15-Sep-2006 at 14:50
Originally posted by Sparten

Light armour? That is a IMO even more dangerous than IFV's. Armour is what makes a MBT,the ability to take a massive amount of punishmnent.


You missed the point again.  Their aim is not to reduce the amount of RHAe protection on a tank, it is to exchange heavy 'passive' armours [like steel, titanium, dU, et cetera] for lighter armours such as electromagnetic armour.  So, in the end, rolled homogenous equivalency would remain the same, it would just be much, much lighter.

So, the topic really tries to adress the issue if this technology will be feasible, and will it be smart to rely on so much technology when pure steel has been proved to work.
 
But if it tries to maximize speed over armour, then well its in trouble, what with modern optics and fire control systems.


Simultanuous aims include attempting to surpass enemy FCS technologies, as well, mind you.
 
And the third fact often missed in the whole air transportable debate, not only the MBT, but its whole logistics suppport system must also be air transportable.
 


Oh, I think the USAF has enough history behind it to prove that it can provide large logistical efforts on a 'limited' basis.  And I think the idea would be to move these light armoured brigades to the trouble zone as a rapid reaction force, and you would use existing lines of logistics from allies, or you would operate for a short period of while on temporary logistics lines while a more permanent one is located.

This entire force is designed around what the projected future wars will be like.
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  Quote xristar Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15-Sep-2006 at 15:21
This entire force is designed around what the projected future wars will be like.
The future wars of America you should say.

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  Quote bagelofdoom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15-Sep-2006 at 15:25
Originally posted by xristar

The point is not only the firepower but also the protection. The infantry has mortars and bazookas, that pretty much do the same damage with a tank's gun. Mortars act as artillery, and bazookas take out MG nests and vehicels (even tanks).

But still, when the land army wants to attack a prepared position, can it rely on mortars and bazookas only? They unleash the same firepower with a tank. Well, it can't. Because when an infantryman is exposed he is sooo easy to kill. While a tank can come out in the open, fire again and again against certain position, take many hits, and still survive.
Especially now, that synthetic armour has been invented, that have increased greatly the survivability of the tank, I think the tank got another like 50 years of life.
 
In your comparisson with cavalry you fail to see something: That heavy cavalry may have lost its key role, but continued to exist until the 19th century.


I agree with you.  I think that the tank still has many years remaining.  50 years sounds about right, although I can't really predict the pace of technological advancement.  What I was saying is that eventually, the tank will be rendered obsolete because the aim of a tank is divergent from the real aim of warfare.
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  Quote J.M.Finegold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15-Sep-2006 at 16:15
Originally posted by xristar

The future wars of America you should say.


Well, yes... given that it's the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom and Russia who are the principle tank designers at the current date.
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  Quote xristar Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16-Sep-2006 at 11:44

Ther are more tank designers (France, smaller like Pakistan, Korea etc), and of them only UK and USA have such goals (operations overseas). Russia and Germany sell as many tanks as they keep for themselves to countries that will fight more conventionally.


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  Quote J.M.Finegold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16-Sep-2006 at 12:39
Originally posted by xristar

Ther are more tank designers (France, smaller like Pakistan, Korea etc), and of them only UK and USA have such goals (operations overseas). Russia and Germany sell as many tanks as they keep for themselves to countries that will fight more conventionally.



France, Germany and Russia have similar goals to that of the United States - for example, the T-95's potential of having an unmanned turret.  The Germans are also one of the major nations experimenting with newer gun technologies that can reduce weight by not going the way of the 140mm gun, like ETC and EM. 
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  Quote Desimir Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16-Sep-2006 at 16:11
Today's tanks are heavy armoured and tough.But nothing in the wolrd is undestroyable.I read that there are new solution against anti tank missiles.Then how will you explain the fact that the old russian AT missile complex Maliyutka destroyed several Abrams in iraq.
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  Quote Cryptic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16-Sep-2006 at 16:28
Originally posted by Sparten

Those require a different TOE than say an armoured thrust into Iran. I have no doubt that US 3 ID, 1 cav Div and two additional Divisions, could destroy Iranain armies as fast as the mullahs could send them,  
 
Only four U.S. Armoured divisions coud rapidly destroy a whole series of Iranian armies, but only in ideal conditions (Wide open terrain, no cities, forests or mountains) 
 
If the USA is forced to fight battles in even a few key towns, cities or mountain areas, four divisons will not have enough infantry dismounts to win.   I think a U.S. Mechanized infantry batalion only has about 220 infantrymen to dismount.   This force won't be effective after even 2-3 weeks of true house to house combat with a determined enemy.
 
Even if the additional two divisions were foot infantry divisions, this would only add about 10,000 fighting infantrymen.   This would help, but it still would not be enough continously clear large cities / towns.  It will be impossible to bypass all cities / towns and mountain areas


Edited by Cryptic - 16-Sep-2006 at 16:30
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  Quote Desimir Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16-Sep-2006 at 16:42
Here is the super tank abrams destroyed by old and cheap rockets.




    

Edited by Desimir - 16-Sep-2006 at 16:43
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  Quote J.M.Finegold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19-Sep-2006 at 16:02
Disimir, most of those are IEDs, and IIRC, only 8 Abrams have been lost insofar in Iraq, unless the count went up when I was in Spain this summer.  And, you have to take into consideration, that only the Abrams and the Challenger series have been the only two most modern tanks that have seen extensive warfare.  Of course, there always is the T-72 and the T-80 in Chechnya...which were mauled.
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  Quote Desimir Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19-Sep-2006 at 23:53
Oh do you think that US lost only 8 abrams.Every government is hiding the real numbers of their losts during a war.I read somewhere that according to independent sources United States lost about 80 abrams.
I dont claim that it is true.
    

Edited by Desimir - 19-Sep-2006 at 23:59
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  Quote Maharbbal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20-Sep-2006 at 03:48
I'm truly sorry to disrupt your expert debate with my slightly out of topic and uneducated question but here it is: if there is ever a war in which I am engaged I'd most likely be sent to an infantry division. Most likely again, this wa will be fought in an urban environment. What does modern technology offer to protect me (poor foot soldier) against the big bad militiamen trying to kill me. In other words: is there any vehicule specially design for urban warfare (lots of protection, room for the infantry, tactical high tech stuff to spot the ennemi hidden three storey up)?
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  Quote Maharbbal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20-Sep-2006 at 04:07
BTW here is an economist point of view:
Unlike most of you I do believe tanks have a long and bright future if not under their current aspect under some other (unmanned vehicule). Indeed, what is really expensive in a machine is rarely the machine it self and much more often the human behind it.
What I mean is a significant investment is enough to buy the machine but an other significant investment is needed on the long term to man it. A tank crew of 4 men means at least $100K a year. In fact I think you can easily say that the all crew of a tank costs the army around $1m a year including the equipment and the formation. So under every aspect an unmanned tank would be so much cheaper.
And ultimately capital is more worthy than workforce (you can sell your tanks not your crews).
Besides, in a world were capital is so important (see 19th c.) there is a strong class opposition it is then very dangerous politically for the lite to have a mighty and numerous infantery force around. Bare in mind that both Ancient and Modern democracy arised from a large infantery-based army (hoplites and 1700's riflemen).
Sorry I went far from the original topic but it is interesting to see what could be the consequences of a single technological leap.
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  Quote bagelofdoom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20-Sep-2006 at 10:53
Thats a good point, but wouldn't tanks represent the same threat?  I don't really know, I haven't got much experience in this sort of thing, but it seems to me that if one tank crew decided to go up against the government, they could do a whole world of hurt if their timing was right. 

As for unmanned tanks, I know that a human crew has so far proved more efficent, especially in terms of loading the cannon.  An unmanned tank would probably be a bear to maintain too, I bet it would cost at least as much (at least in terms of our current technological levels).  I would call it a definite future possibility though (at least before the tank is overtaken by technological developements).
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  Quote J.M.Finegold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20-Sep-2006 at 21:56
Originally posted by Desimir

Oh do you think that US lost only 8 abrams.Every government is hiding the real numbers of their losts during a war.I read somewhere that according to independent sources United States lost about 80 abrams.
I dont claim that it is true.
    


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