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What is the future of Mercosur?

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flyingzone View Drop Down
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  Quote flyingzone Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: What is the future of Mercosur?
    Posted: 04-Jul-2006 at 21:03

President Hugo Chavez marked Venezuela's entry into the South American trade bloc Mercosur with a six-nation summit Tuesday, an alliance that he says should be a common front against U.S. free trade deals.

What do you think of the future of Mercosur? Do you think it can, as some South Americans hope, balance the activities of other global economic powers, especially the United States and the European Union? 
 
Map of Mercosur
 
 
 
'Chavez and the leaders of Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay were set to formalize the bloc's expansion to include Venezuela, which Chavez claims as a victory against Washington's "imperialistic" economic plans for the hemisphere. Bolivian President Evo Morales, a close Chavez ally, was to attend the signing ceremony as an observer.

"It's the road to liberation," Chavez said in a televised address from the presidential palace. "Today more than ever before it's possible. Let's make it reality."

Not all agreed with Chavez that the outlook for Mercosur was so rosy. Paraguayan President Nicanor Duarte aired concerns about alleged protectionist practices by Brazil and Argentina that have prompted Paraguay and Uruguay to question the benefits of Mercosur membership.

Duarte said the bloc's system of common tariffs "does not always agree with commercial practices that still pose many obstacles, especially for less developed countries like Paraguay, which continues to have problems with the flow and circulation of its goods."

Paraguay has complained that its products face long delays in entering Mercosur's two biggest markets and has also protested rules that prohibit it from signing bilateral trade deals with countries outside the bloc.

"In South America we have to develop greater commercial liberalization," Duarte said.

Oil-producing Venezuela's entry into Mercosur is expected to boost the economic clout of the trading bloc, bringing Mercosur's combined gross domestic product to $1 trillion a year more than three-quarters of South America's total economic activity.

Under the agreement, Venezuela will be required to adopt a common external tariff system within four years. The level of those tariffs will vary depending on the product but will average about 12 percent, said Eduardo Sigal, Argentina's undersecretary for economic integration.

Venezuela and the continent's two largest economies Brazil and Argentina will establish free trade zones by 2012. Paraguay and Uruguay will immediately benefit from preferential tariffs for their principal exports to Venezuela before gradually establishing free trade zones by 2013.

Venezuelan critics, largely allied with the political opposition, said the government failed to sufficiently consult the private sector about details including the need for measures to protect local producers, including farmers and cattle ranchers, from cheaper imports.

Chavez also has proposed a massive natural gas pipeline that would carry natural gas from Venezuela's offshore reserves to Brazil, Argentina and other countries. He has suggested Bolivia which has the continent's second-largest gas reserves after Venezuela also could be connected to send its gas to other countries.

The Venezuelan government said in a statement Tuesday that the visiting leaders would also sign an agreement for Bolivia, Paraguay and Uruguay to participate in the proposed 5,600-mile pipeline.

The plan has met with skepticism, however, from energy experts who say it faces enormous technological, environmental and economic challenges. Though cost estimates for building the pipeline remain rough, the Brazilian oil company Petroleo Brasileiro SA has said the price tag could run to more than $25 billion.'

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  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05-Jul-2006 at 17:42
If Mercosur is so adamant against US free trade initiatives, why are they contemplating moving to free trade zones? Confused
 
Not being an economist, I may be missing something here, but Mercosur may be just wishful thinking.  Latin America tends to ride the economic see-saw.....free trade/socialism/free trade/socialism, etc., and the uncertainties have tended to retard investment and commitment to this huge region.  The Petrobras view of this pipeline project seems pretty pessimistic.
 
I suspect that for a long time to come most of Latin America will be more a source of raw materials than an economic powerhouse to compete with North America and Europe, and even Asia.
 
 
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  Quote flyingzone Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05-Jul-2006 at 19:38
Pikeshot, I agree with second point and partially agree with your third but disagree with your first.
 
Regarding your second point: the instability of the political structure of most Latin American countries and hence their ever-changing economic policies makes long-term cooperation among themselves very difficult. This is unlike what happens in the more "mature" democracies like the United States and Canada where even a change in the administration will not drastically affect the direction of their foreign economic policies. One only has to look at the chaotic economic policies of the European Union (which already consists of much more stable democracies than Latin America) to get an idea of how hard consensus on economic policies is to be achieved.
 
Regarding your third point: while for a long while the primary sector will continue to be very important to most Latin American economies, one should not underestimate the size and strength of the domestic economy of those countries. Countries like Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay have a sizeable and very sophisticated middle class. Yes, income equality will continue to be a huge problem in those countries, but unless another economic catastrophe strikes those countries again, the size of the middle class will only continue to grow, not shrink. Don't forget that Brazil is one of the most populous countries in the world. If people have faith in the enormous potential of the consumption power of the growing Chinese middle class, why not that of Brazil's whose consumption pattern resembles even more that of the West?
 
Finally, I don't agree with you on the first point. I think Mercosur is not against free trade per se. One has to recognize that Chavez's version of "socialism" is not synonymous with the Soviet-style or even the Cuban-style socialism. Chavez, despite his overly zealous anti-American sentiments, is not so stupid not to realize that Venezuela NEEDS to trade with foreign countries, including even the United States, in order to sustain economic growth. From the speech that Chavez gave, it is evident that what he is against is a free trade zone that is dominated and dictated by the United States, not free trade itself.
   
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  Quote red clay Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05-Jul-2006 at 20:38

"It's the road to liberation," Chavez said in a televised address from the presidential palace. "Today more than ever before it's possible. Let's make it reality."

 
I wonder if the Indian populations of places like Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay Ecuador see it as the road to liberation, or just another place to get run over.
"Arguing with someone who hates you or your ideas, is like playing chess with a pigeon. No matter what move you make, your opponent will walk all over the board and scramble the pieces".
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  Quote flyingzone Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05-Jul-2006 at 22:01

That's why I have so much high hopes for Evo Morales. If his "experiment" succeeds in Bolivia, he could bring hopes to the plight of the indigenous people in other Latin American countries.

He seems to be embracing the idea of Mercosur as Bolivia has been invited to join the union as an associate member.
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  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06-Jul-2006 at 09:10
Originally posted by red clay

"It's the road to liberation," Chavez said in a televised address from the presidential palace. "Today more than ever before it's possible. Let's make it reality."

 
I wonder if the Indian populations of places like Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay Ecuador see it as the road to liberation, or just another place to get run over.
 
The "road to liberation" is the creation of wealth.  The socialist road has usually meant spreading around the poverty equally.  The capitalist societies are the ones that have achieved more liberty and more wealth while the "socialist" (read authoritarian - centrally directed) societies have usually succeeded mostly in building large armies.  Those are useful for authority and it keeps a lot of people busy and under military control. 
 
Gee, sounds like fascism doesn't it?  Hugo wants a larger military establishment to ward of those evil gringos...or could it be for some other reason? Smile
 
 
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  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06-Jul-2006 at 09:15
Originally posted by flyingzone

That's why I have so much high hopes for Evo Morales. If his "experiment" succeeds in Bolivia, he could bring hopes to the plight of the indigenous people in other Latin American countries.

He seems to be embracing the idea of Mercosur as Bolivia has been invited to join the union as an associate member.
 
Evo will have a most difficult time making a difference.  He has influence in Bolivia.  Bolivia has neither the capital nor the expertise to pull off what he envisions.  Those things come from investment.  That comes from somewhere else.  That is what his program will tend to retard or even drive away.
 
 
 
 
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