Gallup Poll: Pessimism

The results of a new Gallup poll measuring pessimism around the world are all over the Bosnian press right now.

Bosnia and Herzegovina, Russia, and Greece ranked as the most pessimistic countries in the world.

Kosovo (Serbia-Montenegro), Romania and Ukraine ranked the most optimisitc.

That according to the media here, however - searching for something in English I found results that are different.

So here's what it says:

• Asked to indicate the degree of change over the past three years, the overall view of citizens in 48 countries out of 69 is that corruption has increased.
• In six countries, citizens� views overall are that corruption declined over that period: Colombia, Georgia, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Kenya and Singapore.
• In 13 countries � Bolivia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, India, Israel, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines and Venezuela � more than 50 percent of those responding feel that corruption increased a lot.
• Africans and Latin Americans are the most negative about the past.

• In 12 countries, respondents overall expect corruption to decline, with Indonesians being the most optimistic (63% expecting corruption to decrease a lot).
• The most optimistic countries according to the survey are: Indonesia, Kosovo, Nigeria and Uruguay.
• In 34 countries respondents are clearly pessimistic about the future for corruption levels.
• The most pessimistic countries are: Costa Rica, Ecuador, India, Nicaragua and Philippines.
• From a regional perspective, Africa stands out as a region of relative optimism.

Central and Eastern Europe and Central Asia

• Respondents in Kosovo, Ukraine and Romania are the most optimistic, with at least one third believing that the situation will improve.
• People in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Russia are more pessimistic, with respectively 40 and 50 percent of respondents holding negative views about the future.

Latin America

• Half the respondents in five countries � Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico, Nicaragua and Venezuela - are pessimistic about the future, believing corruption will increase. Nicaraguans are the most pessimistic, with more than 6 out of 10 believing the situation will get much worse.
• Respondents from Chile, Colombia and especially Uruguay are very positive about the future.

Africa

• Of the eight African countries covered in the Barometer, five take an optimistic view, especially Nigeria and Ethiopia, where about half the respondents feel that corruption will decrease in the next three years.

 

Asia

• While people in the Philippines and India express strong concerns about future levels of corruption in their country, with approximately 60 percent believing the situation will get a lot worse, Indonesians are even more optimistic than last year, with 63 percent expecting significant improvement.

 

Countries that are pessimistic or optimistic about their past tend to take the same view of their future.  

• In the United States and in Germany, 65 and 66 percent respectively of those surveyed believe corruption has worsened in the past three years, and 56 and 57 percent respectively expect this to continue.
• In the view of 48 percent of Kenyans, corruption decreased over the past three years, and 43 percent believe that trend will continue.
• Similarly, positive views of the past three years in Colombia, Indonesia, and Turkey are also reflected in their optimism for the future.

However, there are countries whose future prospects seem to differ from the recent past. The public in Ethiopia, Nigeria, Ghana, Kosovo, Macedonia, and Uruguay, for example, is markedly more optimistic than their experience of the past 3 years would suggest. 

In specific countries, pessimism may actually indicate some progress in addressing corruption, because of the heightened awareness of corruption that results from visible anti-corruption efforts. Pessimism may, however, result from a perceived absence of political will to fight corruption, or a lack of effectiveness in doing so. Insufficient knowledge about ongoing reforms will diminish public support for governments and others tackling bribery and corruption.

Table: Countries and the prevalence of bribery

Question - In the past 12 months, have you or anyone living in your household paid a bribe in any form?        &n bsp;                                                                                                                                                                                    Answer - Yes	31% - 50%	Cameroon, Paraguay, Cambodia, Mexico
	11% - 30%	Ethiopia, Ghana, Guatemala, Lithuania, Moldova, Nigeria, Romania, Togo Bolivia, Czech Republic, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Greece, Indonesia, India, Kenya, Pakistan, Peru, Russia, Senegal, Serbia, Ukraine
	5% - 10%	Argentina, Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Colombia, Croatia, Kosovo, Luxembourg, Macedonia, Malaysia, Nicaragua, Panama, Philippines, Poland, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey, Venezuela
	Less than 5%	Austria, Canada, Costa Rica, Denmark, Spain, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Japan, South Korea, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Switzerland, Taiwan, UK, Uruguay, USA

Not all countries labelled political parties the most corrupt sector.  

• In many Central and Eastern European countries, including Bulgaria, Kosovo, Moldova, Romania, Serbia and Ukraine, customs officials are considered the most corrupt.
• In Africa (Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal and South Africa) and Latin America (Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela) it is often the police or legal systems/judiciary.
• In several high income countries, including Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway, the business sector and media are considered the most corrupt.
• Ethiopia and Turkey rate their taxation agencies as the most corrupt sector. Respondents in a range of Asian and Latin American countries also indicate significant concern about these agencies.
• While only Kosovo ranks the medical sector as the most corrupt, other countries in the region � including Bulgaria, Moldova, Poland, Serbia and Ukraine - also give this sector relatively high ranks. Respondents in Cameroon, India, Nicaragua, Pakistan and Turkey express similar opinions.

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