Third world war is coming soon

Most of geopolitics experts seems to agree that there will be 3rd world war soon.

This is connected with the fact that American hegemony over the world is going to end and that new power - China - wants to change current world order. There are more participants interested in it for example also Germany, Russia and France but the main threat from current hegemon comes from China.

The experts say that never in the history the world order has changed without a major military conflict. If USA will not react, this order will change in next 20 years and it will be China which will become new hegemon and only the war can stop Chinese from becoming dominant nation in the world. So there is possibility that USA will attack China to stop it. This is kinda a good news for us Europeans, especialy eastern Europeans, because it means that for the first time the major conflict will not take place on our territories but somwhere far. It also confirms the theory that Europe is not as important as it was during last 500 years.

According to geopolitics theories the world is divided on 3 parts: Heartland, Rimmland and periphery.



The main see power of Rimland always control the world trade (90% of world trade is a sea trade) In the past these powers were Spain and Portugal, Holland, Great Britain and now USA. The main landpower of Heartland is not subjected to power of the hegemon of Rimland.
Right now USA controls the seas and dictate the rules of world wide trade, it also gets most profits from this trade.


China wants to break US hegemony and got several projects which will help to break this hegemony, especialy so called NEW SILK ROAD. Last months the president of China visited all major eastern european countries and negotiated the terms of cooperation in building this project.


https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/11/europe-china-new-silk-road/



"A new type of power relations

Based on a mixture of Marxist and Confucian traditions, the Chinese leadership has started to articulate more explicit policies towards regional and global governance, through concepts such as the Harmonious Society by former President Hu Jintao, and President Xi Jinping’s “new type of major power relations”. These concepts, mostly ignored by Western governments, are not just slogans. They have led to a number of visible changes in its foreign engagement: the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the BRICS, G13 and economic forums such as the Boao Forum.

This strategic shift is potentially a game-changer for global governance. Its explicit focus on the wide definition of inclusiveness, the right to development, and based on a relatively fuzzy management style, will inevitably challenge the current Western principles of global governance.

The surprisingly highly successful launch of AIIB may just be a teaser from China on the existing institutions. But it should be taken as a wake-up call. The ball is now in the hands of the EU to decide if and how to engage in these emerging processes. Although Europe continues to struggle with its own crisis, It should make the Silk Road its own and its strategic priority.

For the EU, there are major interests at stake: regional stability, economic development and diversification of energy supply.

This region – with India, Pakistan, Iran and Kazakhstan in the middle – could offer major new markets to European firms, leveraging old European influence to both engage profitably with Chinese and local companies. Europe could also use it as a door-opener in the increasingly difficult but critical Chinese market itself, as China will need allies when engaging overseas."

Originally posted by red clay WWIII is something the doomsayers have been predicting since the 50's.  The modern reality is that war, on the scale of WWII, is too expensive. A global conflict could look very different from the imaginations of "experts".  Esp. since world economies have become inextricably intertwined.

Indeed world economies have become inextricably intertwined but in the same time they are dominated by american dollar and Bretton Wood system. China wants to destroy the Bretton Wood system and replace it with new system dominated by China and its allies. China is working already on the new system and if it succeed, the whole American economy will collapse together with the whole Bretton Wood system. The question is what will USA do to prevent it. And some say that the only thing USA can do is to start war before China will get more powerful than USA. Some say that till the year 2030 Chinese navy will be far more powerful than US navy. It is said that right now USA wouldnt be able to defeat China on the seas without the help of Japan and South Korea. But what will America do when Japan and South Korea will decide that alliance with China is more profitable for them than alliance with USA and that in cooperation with Chinese they can profit more than in cooperation with USA?

Some say that USA will try to change Russia into its ally.

So you say that USA will not do anything even if doing nothing will end in loosing hegemony over the world and complete collapse of American economy?

http://www.telesurtv.net/english/opinion/The-New-Silk-Roads-and-the-Rise-of-the-Chinese-Dream-20160224-0017.html


To frame the earth-shattering process in a strategic perspective, from the Chinese point of view, it’s enlightening to revert to a very important speech delivered last summer by General Qiao Liang at the University of Defense, China’s top military school. It’s as if Liang’s formulations would be coming from the mouth of the dragon - Xi - himself.

Beijing’s leadership assesses that the U.S. won’t get into a war against China within the next 10 years. Pay attention to the time frame: 2025 is when Xi expects China to have turned into a “moderately prosperous” society as part of the renewed Chinese Dream. And Xi for his part would have fulfilled his mandate – arguably basking in glory once enjoyed only by the Little Helmsman Deng Xiaoping.

The secret for the next 10 years, as General Liang framed it, is for China to overhaul its economy (a work in progress) and internationalize the yuan. That also implies striking an Asian-wide free trade pact – which is obviously not the Chinese-deprived American TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership), but the Chinese-driven RCEP.


As a consequence, a “ripple effect” will divide the world:

“If only a third of the global money is in the hands of the dollar, how can the U.S. currency maintain its leadership? Could a hollowed out United States, left without monetary leadership, still be a global leader?”

So the decline of the U.S. dollar is the key issue, according to the Beijing leadership, of China’s “recent troubles” under which loom “the shadow of the United States.”

Enter the U.S. “pivot to Asia.” Beijing clearly interprets its goal as “to balance out the momentum of China’s rising power today.” And that leads to the discussion of the former AirSea Battle concept (it has now “evolved” into another mongrel), which General Liang qualifies as an “intractable dilemma” for the U.S.

“The strategy primarily reflects the fact that the U.S. military today is weakening,” said Liang. “U.S. troops used to think that it could use airstrikes and the Navy against China. Now the U.S. finds neither the Air Force nor the Navy by themselves can gain advantages against China.”

Only this previous paragraph would be enough to put in perspective the whole, tumultuous cat and mouse game of Chinese advances and American bullying across the South China Sea. Beijing is very much aware that Washington cannot “offset some advantages the Chinese military has established, such as the ability to destroy space systems or attack aircraft carriers. The United States must then come up with 10 years of development and a more advanced combat system to offset China's advantages. This means that Americans may schedule a war for 10 years later.”

Have War, Will Plan

So, no major war up to 2025, which leaves Xi and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership free to advance like a juggernaut. Observers who follow the moves in Beijing in real time qualify it as “breathtaking “ or “a sight to behold.” The Beltway remains mostly clueless.      

At the onset of the Chinese Year of the Monkey, the CCP under Xi’s orders released a sensational cartoon hip hop video that went mega-viral. Talk about Chinese soft power; that’s how Xi’s

platform for his 10-year term, up to 2023, was announced to the masses.

Enter the Four Comprehensives: 1) to develop a “moderately prosperous society” (translated into a GDP per capita of US$10,000); 2) Keep deepening reforms (especially of the economic model); 3) Govern by the rule of law (that’s tricky; but essentially means the law as interpreted by the CCP); 4) Eliminate corruption from the CCP (a long work in progress).

Nice to see you back Aeoli. How is situation in Turkey?