The long-term geopolitcal fallout?

I don't think we'll ever see a return to the far right. Though films like 'V for Vendetta' are discouraging...

Originally posted by Kevin I have been wondering what will be the long-term geopolitical effects of the current financial crisis? This is such a loaded question I don't where to begin. However if the last worst financial crisis of the past 80 years is an indicator of where something like this can cause as the Great Depression as we all know helped usher in the Second World War. It is truly interesting to think what effects this one might have on World Affairs.

I have been putting some thought into this. I think it will have consequences down the road. We can start to see the rise of nationalism as the economic conditions bite harder.

The EU can either centralise more or fray at the edges as the weaker countries start to default. Russian foreign reserves are starting to diminish, i am told by 25% already, so their currency may crash in the not to distant future. Look back at the 30's to see what happens when people are angry, hungry or simply disenchanted with the system, they will be attracted to populist, strong sounding and ultimatly self centered-narrow type politics. rom there what happens is anyones guess. The social diruptions and poitical outcomes are going to exist but troublesome to predict.

eastern europe, the baltics, and southern European countries are what I am talking about (and in that order).

other flash points is China and the ME. Everyone is going to be impacted somehow by this, because the scale of the damage so far is, well, beyond what most people imagine

Originally posted by Parnell The US would have to intervene if something happened in Taiwan.

Not necessarily. Taiwan's value to the US is largely as a way of containing China. However, in a scenario where the US can no longer afford to maintain the global status quo through military force, it's alot less important. There's no economic imperative to intervene in such a scenario, and a US that has given up its role as global cop has no strategic interest in Taiwan.


Edited by edgewaters - 26-Oct-2008 at 18:28

Rearmament has already begun on the part of Russia, China, India, and numerous lesser powers.

Third World conflicts will only get so far - sooner or later, these powers will step in as regional security bosses, effectively forming new blocs or empires under the pretext of peacekeeping.

World war or conflict between major powers is only a scenario if these ambitions should be challenged. Such as, for instance, if China were to destabilize Taiwan and cause a civil crisis there, and undertake a police action, which were to be challenged by the US.

I don't think it'll lead to another world war. At least not on the scale of the last two.