Georgia's future?

 

 

You know, that was my assumption too.   But I also assumed that rider would know more it than I did......   But maybe the conflict would be limited to the elite troops level or is it too late for that already?  I somehow don't think it would be a full on war.  I don't think either side wants the total destruction of the region for many reasons.    Even then, wouldn't Russia have least as good or better elite forces?   I think it will depend on how long the Georgian government can hold off the Russians and what kind of support they can generate from the West.  I can see it going either way but most likely the West will just bark in the media but not confront Russia.    And maybe how long the Georgian government can hold off the Russians will be depending on  how much support they can generate from the people of Georgia themselves.   If there is a great support for the government or anti-Russia sentiment the West can still support the guerrilla warfare without confronting Russia directly, kinda like Afghanistan in the 80's.   Hey, Samart, how would you compare this to Afghanistan in the 80's from the Russian point of view?   

 

The Georgian equipment is inferior to the Russian. The Russian army actually underwent modernization after the bitter lessons of the first Chechen war. Also current Government is pumping huge money into the modernization of the army.

Georgian elite forces are trained by Americans, I think they have a so-called anti-terrorist batallion or something like that, are also inferior to the Russian special forces. Which have both a better experience (2 Chechen wars) and better equipment. Some pieces of American and other Western weapons that Georgian elite troops have actually make their life much harder since the overwhelming majority of the Georgian army is equipped with the Russian made weapons which means that the elite troops might face the problem of the lack of ammunition if the fighting intensifies. In any case, only a tiny pieace of Georgian army consists of this "elite troops." My observation is that the Western "equipment" of Georgian army primary relates to the NATO style looking helmots and gear, but nothing more. All the weapons including tanks, artillery, aircrafts and hand weapons all are made in the USSR.

 

Moreover, Russian airforce complitely dominates the air above Georgia, it simply makes Georgian victory impossible. However, Russia still hasn't unleashed its full power.

I don't think it wants to escalate the conflict beyond the borders of Southern Ossetia.

 

The Afghanistan and Ossetian situation are harldy comparable. That time the SU invaded Afghanistan, this time Georgia openly attacked and killed Russian peacekeepers.

This time the actions of the Russian army enjoy both complete support of the Russian people and also local Ossetian population.

 

Also this is a much lower scale operation compare to Afghanistan for the Russian/Soviet army.

 

Let's us hope so for everyone involved.

 

American info. They indeed bought some new weapons in Ukraine and Czech republic (very few from the US and other western countries) and Israel upgraded old Soviet fighter jets. But most of their weapons are still good old Soviet stuff.