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Is Israel about to strike at Iran?

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  Quote Leonidas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Is Israel about to strike at Iran?
    Posted: 09-Jul-2008 at 15:49
their network was rolled. My quoted article mentions this, but i have heard before.

iran is not easy to penetrate
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  Quote rider Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11-Jul-2008 at 15:57
See, Iran can strike at Isreal.. 
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  Quote Suren Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11-Jul-2008 at 19:32
The whole thing is a psychological war. even if Iran have had nukes, it won't use them against Israel, because Israel can easily strike back. Having nukes for Iran is just a prestige and guarantee so no body can attack their country and having upper hand in regional debates. I am sure Iran will cut off her financial support to many suspicious groups in the region after they got the nukes, because Iran doesn't need them anymore. 
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  Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11-Jul-2008 at 19:44
I find the whole concept of Israel striking Iran ludicrous.   They pounded Hezbollah which just across its northern border with everything conventional they had - so much so that they had ordered America to send more munitions - and the result was hardly noteworthy.  What will 2 or even 200 Israeli bombers achieve against Iran? It will just show Israel up and reaffirm its global status as an illegitimate bully state.

And this is to mention nothing of Iran's response.   What would 100 Shahabs do to Tel Aviv? Israel is impotent.
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  Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11-Jul-2008 at 19:58
Originally posted by pikeshot1600

Originally posted by Vorian

Originally posted by pikeshot1600

Kevin:
 
Don't look for Iran to give any nukes to Sunni Moslem states.  Wink
 
 


Iran is Persian. Arabs don't really like them. Are there any other Siite states ecxept Iran and Iraq?
 
Iran is about half Persian, but it is a good point that Iran is mostly non-Arab.  Historically, relations between Persians and Arabs have not been good.  Arabs are concerned with the possibility of Iran's hegemony in the Gulf and in the region.  This is a geopolitical weakness in Iran's position as they remain isolated and viewed with suspicion by nearly all of their neighbors, and on almost all flanks.
 
As far as nukes are concerned, it matters not if Mullah Iran or non-Mullah Iran has nuclear capability, either is bad for the West as well as for regional powers.
 


Well when America pulls out it's something they may have to accept or just shape up because the current Arab states have absolutely no industrial/economic depth and no intellectual tradition.  Iraq had the potential and look what happened to it.  The fact that Iran has potential for these is what makes it a threat to Western hegemony, the matter of management incompetence and corruption is surmountable and is being addressed.  Imagine if all of the Arabs took a leaf from Iran's defiance and determination - in fact it's something to which most Arab commoners aspire, the only thing holding them back is their leaders whose dynasties are themselves anointed by the West (pun intended).

In due course, the will of the people for self determination will prevail over the foreign exploiters.  Perhaps sooner rather than later.
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  Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11-Jul-2008 at 20:01
Originally posted by Al Jassas

Hello to you all
 
The window for a strike is closing fast, by October, the possibily will deminish greatly for climatic reasons, the start of the rainy season and high winds. By November fog, rain and snow storms. Another chance will not come till next April. So the next few weeks should be very decisive and hope to God that nothing serious happens because there is nothing good that comes from war.
 
Al-Jassas


A serious strike is only possible in the spring. 
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  Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11-Jul-2008 at 20:03
Originally posted by rider

Originally posted by pikeshot1600

Originally posted by rider

The fact that Israeli Military is well trained, doesn't mean that they will win or even, succeed. If they launch their missiles, then Iran will do the same, and I have a feeling that Iran has more of them... (Both have intercontinental ballistic missile weaponry, right?)

Anyways, the only Israeli to do so, would most likely be a very old, bearded General that's insane. 

 
AFAIK, neither has intercontinental capability.  However, that technology is not so mysterious any longer, so it could be likely that they will aquire it before too long.  Their missile technology is intermediate in range; who knows about the sophistication of the guidance systems, and who knows about their multi-target capability?  They are not talking.
 
 

There aren't any US spies in Iran's Military Intelligence? I'd be surprised if it was so. 



No that is why they resort to kidnapping Iranian officers.
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  Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11-Jul-2008 at 20:28
Originally posted by Al Jassas

Well my relatives who serve in the military and/or intelligence haven't given an indication  to the thought that there is a heightened military. They, especially the guys in the special forces, their vacations or are planning to go on vacation and no one bothered them. However there is certain pessimism about the events, any closure of the gulf will mean war and I was told that there is a lot of tension right now in the intelligence community between those who advocate more agressive action and those who still believe that nothing emminent is going to happen. There were some military excercises recently that were called "routine" but I don't think so, the RSAF conducted two excercises this year maybe even three, more than usual and with countries bordering or at enmity with Iran (Pakistan, US and UAE). some days ago there was a confrontation, which is still ongoing, with the Iranian navy and I have'nt asked lately on what happened since.
 
Al-Jassas


Was that confrontation when a Saudi fishing boat full of Indian nationals was intercepted in Iranian waters near Ostan e Khalij e Fars (Bushehr)?
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  Quote Al Jassas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11-Jul-2008 at 21:51
Hello Zagros
 
Well Iranian boats go freely and fish in Arab gulf states waters (my cousin is in the navy and based over in the gulf and he said as long they are on the borders no intervention is called for) and vice versa, it is a well known fact and Iran never protested or made a fuss unless it wants to send a political message, like the time they held Qatari boats during the insane and childish fuss they started about naming the gulf a couple of years ago. This arrest is nothing more than that, a political message.
 
As for Arab states lacking industrial infrastructure and "intellectual depth", you really need to update you info. Industry in the Arab world is as advanced, and in many areas even more advanced, as that of Iran but unlike it, it is concentrated towards developement not armament that is why on average Arab economies are much more stronger than the Iranian and the economies much more healthier.
 
Al-Jassas
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  Quote Suren Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12-Jul-2008 at 01:26
Arab countries except Egypt depend on their oil production, without it they have nothing. They are rich and have luxury houses because of oil. You take that oil then what you have? almost nothing. If you are proud of trading centers, all of them will disappear in a blink of an eye without oil and money. This is a fact that most of the modern middle eastern countries are consumers not producers. Then one day there is no oil, no money, consequently, there is no friend and attention. This fancy life in gulf states is a dream which will end by loss of oil, it is necessary for you guys to expend this money for industrial infrastructure and education to secure your countries future.
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  Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12-Jul-2008 at 02:54
Hello AJ -

Originally posted by Al Jassas

Hello Zagros
 
Well Iranian boats go freely and fish in Arab gulf states waters (my cousin is in the navy and based over in the gulf and he said as long they are on the borders no intervention is called for) and vice versa, it is a well known fact and Iran never protested or made a fuss unless it wants to send a political message, like the time they held Qatari boats during the insane and childish fuss they started about naming the gulf a couple of years ago. This arrest is nothing more than that, a political message.


That's irrelevant. I find it funny because it was a SAUDI fishing boat and everyone aboard was Indian.  I think perhaps the fact that they were near to the Bushehr reactor resulted in their arrest which you are right, sends a message: stay away from our sensitive sites.

As for Arab states lacking industrial infrastructure and "intellectual depth", you really need to update you info. Industry in the Arab world is as advanced, and in many areas even more advanced, as that of Iran but unlike it, it is concentrated towards developement not armament that is why on average Arab economies are much more stronger than the Iranian and the economies much more healthier.
 
Al-Jassas


So what does the Arab world produce and develop?  Its own arms? Its own industrial metals? Its own cars and trucks? its own utility and electronic? its own textiles? its own bicycles? its own agricultural equipment? much of its own medical supplies? its own semi-conductors? its own precision equipment? How advanced are the Arabs in medical research? Can you extract your own oil? Iran is at the forefront of stem cell research.  Iranian scientists are almost always in the top five on international olympiad competitions in physics, maths, chemistry, robotics, etc. These scientists are spawned from a rich scientific and academic tradition with bases in technically brilliant universities such as tehran sharrif and tabriz universities. 

And on top of this Iran is subject to economic sanctions unlike any other country in the region and possibly worldwide except Myanmar.  you probably shudder to think how prosperous iran would be without them. Don't discount armaments because the defense industry has in many cases proven to be a source for civilian product innovation, such as aircraft (Iran now produces civilian aricraft).  They say 60% of iran's exports today are from oil and they're right, but consider that in 1998 when oil was $10/b it was a similar ratio, whether you like it or not that is real development.

You have oil which you sell to the west and the money you earn is spent either investing in the west or buying western goods at inflated prices (such as yaughts and armaments obsolete in the West which are just sold at infalted prices to recoup the R&D spend by western companies)... Is that development?  the only Arab academics I have ever been taught by or cited have either been Egyptian, Lebanese, Syrian or Iraqi none of these countries except one is a major oil exporter, why is that?  I have often heard other Arabs complain about "khalijis" as lazy and arrogant but there must be more to it than that.  I think it's as Azimuth said before:  Khalij countries are culturally and physically very young and have not had time to develop such a mentality. And the trap that you're in now will mean that it will be a very slow process.


 


Edited by Zagros - 12-Jul-2008 at 02:56
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  Quote Omar al Hashim Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12-Jul-2008 at 03:05
Originally posted by Zagros

I find the whole concept of Israel striking Iran ludicrous.   They pounded Hezbollah which just across its northern border with everything conventional they had - so much so that they had ordered America to send more munitions - and the result was hardly noteworthy.  What will 2 or even 200 Israeli bombers achieve against Iran? It will just show Israel up and reaffirm its global status as an illegitimate bully state.

And this is to mention nothing of Iran's response.   What would 100 Shahabs do to Tel Aviv? Israel is impotent.

Even more to the point, image the damage Iran could do to Israel if it didn't shoot back.
Israel bombs Iran, and Iran holds its temper and refuses to shoot back - even though even one knows they can. Propaganda coup.
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  Quote Leonidas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12-Jul-2008 at 04:27
Originally posted by Omar al Hashim

Even more to the point, image the damage Iran could do to Israel if it didn't shoot back.
Israel bombs Iran, and Iran holds its temper and refuses to shoot back - even though even one knows they can. Propaganda coup.
agreed and that's would be my preferred tact,  But they would look weak at home and they cant afford that. Its a balancing act, but both sides pander to their domestic audiences more so than the foreign media.

Originally posted by Zagros

And this is to mention nothing of Iran's response.   What would 100 Shahabs do to Tel Aviv? Israel is impotent
they would pepper it with some physical damage and cause a psychological imprint much like Saddam's Scuds on bigger scale,  nothing else. I'm sure they would hit its military targets before Tel Aviv, the nuke plant being target number one. Those targets will hurt more than hitting their cities. i don't understand why hitting Israeli cities with scuds on steroids is seen as effective. Israel can nuke every city in the region and is getting better at defending against these things as time rolls on. Its like a college boy slapping a heavy weight boxer, just to show they aren't scared and they have reach. Its only makes a point, but doesn't win the fight. Its not going to cower Israel. Hezbollah is much more effective than these Shahabs.

 The greater number of short/medium range missiles they have, used against US interest in the gulf and Afghanistan would have more of a materiel impact in any future conflict than a limited attack on Tel Aviv. Such things just rally the population for war. It didn't help either Iraq or Iran when they were lobbing scuds at each others cities, victory is secured on the battlefield.


Edited by Leonidas - 12-Jul-2008 at 04:41
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  Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12-Jul-2008 at 12:12
Originally posted by Omar al Hashim

Originally posted by Zagros

I find the whole concept of Israel striking Iran ludicrous.   They pounded Hezbollah which just across its northern border with everything conventional they had - so much so that they had ordered America to send more munitions - and the result was hardly noteworthy.  What will 2 or even 200 Israeli bombers achieve against Iran? It will just show Israel up and reaffirm its global status as an illegitimate bully state.

And this is to mention nothing of Iran's response.   What would 100 Shahabs do to Tel Aviv? Israel is impotent.

Even more to the point, image the damage Iran could do to Israel if it didn't shoot back.
Israel bombs Iran, and Iran holds its temper and refuses to shoot back - even though even one knows they can. Propaganda coup.


The Syrians did that, what good did it do for them? they just looked like weak idiots.
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  Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12-Jul-2008 at 12:27
they would pepper it with some physical damage and cause a psychological imprint much like Saddam's Scuds on bigger scale,  nothing else.


Nothing else? Like not destroy Israel's fragile economy and exponentially increase its emigration problem?

I'm sure they would hit its military targets before Tel Aviv, the nuke plant being target number one. Those targets will hurt more than hitting their cities. i don't understand why hitting Israeli cities with scuds on steroids is seen as effective.


It would ruin Israel's economy.  And is a good deterrent. Of course Dimona would be hit too, probably by Hezbollah and assets in Syria.  Attacking Tel-Avivl has a good deterrent effect which is the main thing - Hezb threatened it and managed to limit Israel's area of aggression .  I am sure no one except certain factions in the American and Israeli govts. want to attack Iran since long before the nuclear excuse and ahmadinejad came along "everyone wanted to go to Baghdad but real men wanted to go to Tehran".

War for Iran regardless of the outcome would disastrous.  It seems that the above factions still have considerable sway, consider that Omelette told Rice to impose a naval blockade on Iran last year (or earlier this year and a bill for such a thing is being processed in Congress, that is a declaration of war under international law.  Israel is impotent that is why it uses America for its ends via its Neo-Con proxies and American lobbies.  If Israel had any chance of success against Iran it would have taken it.

Israel can nuke every city in the region and is getting better at defending against these things as time rolls on. Its like a college boy slapping a heavy weight boxer, just to show they aren't scared and they have reach. Its only makes a point, but doesn't win the fight. Its not going to cower Israel. Hezbollah is much more effective than these Shahabs.


Does Israel have nukes? 200 of them? Everyone assumes so.  All we have is the word of an Israeli defector: Mossad's maxim is "to win wars by way of deception".   Israel wouldn't be attacked to prove reach, it would be attacked in self defense by the means possible.


Edited by Zagros - 12-Jul-2008 at 12:36
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  Quote Al Jassas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12-Jul-2008 at 15:09

Hello to you all

Well the claim that all Arab countries have oil and rich is proof that you realy know nothing about the Arab world. Apart from Gulf states all Arab countries import oil from outside or barely have oil to suffice them from importing it. But one thing Arab countries have that Iran doesn't, they all import raw oil and then refine on their own by refinaries built by themselves. Iran on the other hand though the worlds second producer of Oil still imports at least 60% of its refined oil products like processed gas, Diesel and gasoline. In my opinion for a rich country like Iran, this is a catastrophe and no matter how much weapons Iran produces it won't keep this vital fact away from its enemies. On strike on Kharaj Island and Khor Abdallah (currently named Bandare Khomaini) will literally bring refined products production to a halt. Anyway, I strongly recomend to both of you suren and Zagros to read about Arab countries and how advanced their industrial capacity is despite the lack of oil.

Returning to the subject at hand, the Hizb is the last thing on Israel's mind right now, its potential effects on the struggle is nothing. The key for the hizb's success is Syria and Syria now courted by the world and sacrificing Maghniyah on the alter of negotiations with Israel will not be dragged into a war with Israel that it and only it will suffer, as you know Syria is next door and Iran is 1500 km away. Already we know that Syria was angry with the Hizb for starting the 2006 war and it was Syria which forced the Hizb to stop not Iran. There are 20k UN forces between the Hizb and effective launching range against Israeli bases and unlike the 2006 war which came as a total surprise to the Israeli army, which was given a short notice for operation (less than 24 hours), this time Israel will invade Lebanon with full fury and will crush the Hizb with the support of Sunnis, Druz and many christians. Syria will talk talk but will do absolutely nothing to save the Hizb. This will make hizb officials and their masters in Tehran think twice, is losing Lebanon worth it (by making the Hizb attack Israel and force an invasion)? if it is even Iran will abandon the Hizb because by the time everything cooled down, the Hizbs place in internatinal strategy will be nill.
 
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  Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12-Jul-2008 at 15:37
Iran on the other hand though the worlds second producer of Oil still imports at least 60% of its refined oil products like processed gas, Diesel and gasoline. In my opinion for a rich country like Iran, this is a catastrophe and no matter how much weapons Iran produces it won't keep this vital fact away from its enemies. On strike on Kharaj Island and Khor Abdallah (currently named Bandare Khomaini) will literally bring refined products production to a halt. Anyway, I strongly recomend to both of you suren and Zagros to read about Arab countries and how advanced their industrial capacity is despite the lack of oil.


The figure is 40% and it is due to insufficient refining capacity which until recently Iran has not had the technology to improve due to sanctions - The govt. claims that by 2012 there will be enough capacity to become a net exporter of gasoline.

I did not i claim all Arab countries have oil. I actually made a clear distinction ebtween those which do and those which don't.  Some anecdotal evidence from you on Arab industry would suffice.

Fars news agency just reported that the us has agreed to unconditional negotiations with Iran.  - If this is true it is a major diplomatic coup for Iran given the pressure it has sustained for conditional talks.


Edited by Zagros - 12-Jul-2008 at 15:52
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  Quote Al Jassas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12-Jul-2008 at 18:43
Hello Zagros
 
I hope this link will help you:
 
 
AL-Jassas
 
 
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  Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12-Jul-2008 at 19:36
Sorry AJ, it's not much help at all.  Nothing works, all it has are a few sound-bites on a homepage.  Can you elaborate on industry in the Peninsula (Khalij Arab countries)?  Because they are the ones I refer to.  What do they manufacture, export etc other than oil?
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  Quote Al Jassas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12-Jul-2008 at 20:15
Hello Zagros
 
Well in essense, the site gives an idea about the government run comapny. It produces training planes for the air force, several planes by license from western and Russian companies and several kinds of Tanks. Syria also produces its own kind of tanks in addition to the T series Russian tanks by license. As for Gulf Arab states, well, since (except Saudi Arabia) their entire population combined is smaller than a typical suberb in Shiraz, they by weapons to frighten their own people and hire america for their defense. In Saudi Arabia there is a good military industry going on. Most of the small and medium arms used by the military is nationally made. A private company, Al-Faris, builds two types of AFV's (by license from a french company I think) and the Advanced Electronics company is responsible for building anything from Radar and Sonar equipment to electronic boards for F-15s, which the planes comes without.
 
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