World faces choice between higher energy, food cos

Pinguin you are ignorant re-read this thread and you'll understand that

1) Population growth is only feeding a part of the crisis

2) Massive improvement can be reached

3) The best way to feed the planet is through trade (Africa may never produce enough to feed itself but that does not matter as long as other regions of the world can produce the food African people need. Do you think the Netherlands produce all the food they consume?

There is no doomsday in sight, some painful bumps but no agricultural armagedon

Originally posted by pinguin Originally posted by Maharbbal 1) Population growth is only feeding a part of the crisis   The important part, isn't?

Nope it is a very important element but far from the one and only. It is difficult to know right now what proportion of the inflation is due to demographic growth, but if I had to guess I's say around 25%, certainly behind the price of oil and the change of food habits in the developping countries.

Originally posted by Leonidas .... BTW Africa can feed itself, there are two issue here that come front of mind, first agriculural production is bent towards cash crops, not basic food. Im talking cocoa, coffee, sugar and fruits. All for export as they chase $$. This was a World bank rip off set up after ww2. The poor countries took out loans to start this and are now caught in a debt trap as they all produced the same cash crops (prices crashed) and never got the return they expected. Second issue, is that these guys are badly governed, > corruption and conflict upseting any chance to develop further.  For example, Zimbabwe was a food bowl. But the farms were white owned, Mugabe broke that old imperial legacy but never replaced the well managed esates with anything else. hence now they have little in the way of food production. Africa is resource rich, there is no reason why they shouldnt be rich.

Edited by pinguin - 26-May-2008 at 02:27

Originally posted by pinguin Originally posted by Leonidas .... BTW Africa can feed itself, there are two issue here that come front of mind, first agriculural production is bent towards cash crops, not basic food. Im talking cocoa, coffee, sugar and fruits. All for export as they chase $$. This was a World bank rip off set up after ww2. The poor countries took out loans to start this and are now caught in a debt trap as they all produced the same cash crops (prices crashed) and never got the return they expected. Second issue, is that these guys are badly governed, > corruption and conflict upseting any chance to develop further.  For example, Zimbabwe was a food bowl. But the farms were white owned, Mugabe broke that old imperial legacy but never replaced the well managed esates with anything else. hence now they have little in the way of food production. Africa is resource rich, there is no reason why they shouldnt be rich.   Africa hardly can feed itself. A very simple analysis of the statistics shows it.   First, Africa is the driest continent, that is already overcrowded in relation to the poor irrigation it has. This is the evolution of water availability in 1990 and 2025.     dought in Africa:   Africa is both the driest continent (other than Oceania) and the region where hunger is most prevalent. Within Africa, undernourishment and periodic famines have afflicted semi-arid and drought-prone.. (FAO)     Unlike Asia and Latin America, Africa has failed in improving the yield of grain       Food production is declining in Africa   I wouldn't be optimistic about Africa in this respect at all. Africa is living on foreign aid already,     And food imports are growing, bought with foreign cash,

Originally posted by pinguin Originally posted by Leonidas .... BTW Africa can feed itself, there are two issue here that come front of mind, first agriculural production is bent towards cash crops, not basic food. Im talking cocoa, coffee, sugar and fruits. All for export as they chase $$. This was a World bank rip off set up after ww2. The poor countries took out loans to start this and are now caught in a debt trap as they all produced the same cash crops (prices crashed) and never got the return they expected. Second issue, is that these guys are badly governed, > corruption and conflict upseting any chance to develop further.  For example, Zimbabwe was a food bowl. But the farms were white owned, Mugabe broke that old imperial legacy but never replaced the well managed esates with anything else. hence now they have little in the way of food production. Africa is resource rich, there is no reason why they shouldnt be rich.   Africa hardly can feed itself. A very simple analysis of the statistics shows it.

what you show, is that it isnt feeding itself. i am saying it certainly can feed itself. You would need to seperate the mismanagement part from the list of stats you show before you can strongly argue your case that it cant. For instance - no water could that be because they dont have the infrastucture? Africa is not complety dry.......... or no growth in crop yeilds, because they dont use the latest methods in farming? Zimbawe did produce more food when it was well managed, same land - different policies. BTW its is sitting on a allot of platinum, so go figure why its poor.

Originally posted by Leonidas ...what you show, is that it isnt feeding itself. i am saying it certainly can feed itself. You would need to seperate the mismanagement part from the list of stats you show before you can strongly argue your case that it cant. For instance - no water could that be because they dont have the infrastucture? Africa is not complety dry.......... or no growth in crop yeilds, because they dont use the latest methods in farming? Zimbawe did produce more food when it was well managed, same land - different policies. BTW its is sitting on a allot of platinum, so go figure why its poor.   BTW Allot of the enviromental issues is self inflicted (like everywhere else), deforestation and the resulted soil erosion can punish them hard and it already has. While it may never be the same, expensive land rehabilitaion programs can stem those losses   anyway food can be produced in the desert if the right infrastucture/crops are in place.

Edited by pinguin - 27-May-2008 at 04:22

Pinguin, thx for the stats but they are not relevant (sorry some tech problem I can quote)

1. AIDS is unrelated
2. Relative decline in PIN/cap could mean that Africa does not export food anymore or that the value of the food produced as decline but not the quantity.
3. Africa is truly late in implementing best practice in most of its agriculture.
4. Water is a problem? True, but since Kenya and Ethiopia (pretty dry places) have become a new hub in horticulture, it shows that it is not an unsolvable issue.

Production in Africa is so low that it can only rise. It is lacking investment in infrastructure to produce and distribute, it is lacking capital-intensive factors of production (machines, seeds, breed, fertilizer), it is lacking the right institutional set to produce without fear of being robbed by rebels or the state itself, it is lacking farms big enough to be financially sound.

If there was no hope for food production in Africa, why would the Chinese invest so much in lands there in order to feed their own population?

Originally posted by Maharbbal Pinguin, thx for the stats but they are not relevant (sorry some tech problem I can quote)

 

Stats are relevant, particularly when they address the topics we are discussing it.

Originally posted by Maharbbal 1. AIDS is unrelated

 

Of course it is related. It means SS Africa is not producing enough to feed its current population. It means each years that pass SS Africa is getting deeper into throuble.

 

Originally posted by Maharbbal 2. Relative decline in PIN/cap could mean that Africa does not export food anymore or that the value of the food produced as decline but not the quantity.

 

It means production is not catching up with the number of people.

 

Originally posted by Maharbbal 3. Africa is truly late in implementing best practice in most of its agriculture.

 

But to improve agriculture, you need money. Water and money are in very low supply in Africa.

 

Originally posted by Maharbbal 4. Water is a problem? True, but since Kenya and Ethiopia (pretty dry places) have become a new hub in horticulture, it shows that it is not an unsolvable issue.

 

Sure. But if Africa can’t feed its people today when they are “only” 600 millions, imagine what will happens when they reach 2, 4 or 8 billions, some years from now.

 

Originally posted by Maharbbal Production in Africa is so low that it can only rise.

 

However, stats shows it keeps falling and falling without an end.

 

Originally posted by Maharbbal It is lacking investment in infrastructure to produce and distribute, it is lacking capital-intensive factors of production (machines, seeds, breed, fertilizer), it is lacking the right institutional set to produce without fear of being robbed by rebels or the state itself, it is lacking farms big enough to be financially sound.

 

It is lacking of a population control policy as well.

Originally posted by Maharbbal If there was no hope for food production in Africa, why would the Chinese invest so much in lands there in order to feed their own population?

 

Well, that’s an excelent example of what happened when populations go uncontrolled. China needs more food for its “huge” population of 1.2 billion people, because its land, (roughly the size of “useful” SS Africa) is not enough to feed well all of them well.

But China is a country blessed with rivers and civil engineering works! Just imagine what will happen in an SS Africa with 2 or 4 billion people living in a continent even less productive than today.