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possible for Europe to become a single state?

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  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: possible for Europe to become a single state?
    Posted: 28-Jan-2009 at 22:31

Perhaps a better question is why would Europe want to become a single "state?"  In the highly unlikely event of Europe becoming one, Europe would have to assume it's place as a major power.  There seems to be little advantage in that. 

The EEC has been subsumed into the European Union; the Euro is a recognized medium of exchange, so Europe has about as much economic clout as it can aspire to.  Most importantly, NATO provides the essential defense establishment that protects Europe, and effectively gives it international standing.

Why would they want to go it alone when that might involve military efforts "on their own account?"  That has not been the European preferred path at least since 1956 at Suez. 
 
I just cannot see Brussels being acquiescent in eventualitites such as the Falklands War, recurrent French interests in Africa, or the currently suppressed historic conflicts in the Balkans.  French and Danes and Spaniards might logically come down on all different sides of these issues, and trying to accomodate all sides might be far more trouble than it is worth.
 
And, back to the matter about independent major power status, I don't see Europeans as being willing to shoulder those responsibilities any longer.  Europe as a unified entity would be inimical to US interests in the long run, so they might have to deal with a resurgent Russia on their own.  (Expensive; frought with uncertainty and potential danger) 
 
    
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  Quote Beylerbeyi Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29-Jan-2009 at 11:50
Turkey would be the biggest state of EU and while they have different culture
Different than what? You wrote that there is no European identity or culture, so what is different in Turkey? In fact Romanian culture has nothing to do with Finnish culture either. You are against Turkey because Turkey is Muslim. That's the main problem, as we all know it, even though it can not be spoken out, because the EU claims to be a secular organisation.

Originally posted by Pike

The EEC has been subsumed into the European Union; the Euro is a recognized medium of exchange, so Europe has about as much economic clout as it can aspire to.
Not really. USD still remains the main global exchange and reserve currency. Right now US can print money without backing it thanks to this status of the dollar. If euro replaced the dollar, European economic power would be much greater.

Most importantly, NATO provides the essential defense establishment that protects Europe, and effectively gives it international standing.
NATO has always been the tool for US dominance. If EU will aspire for greater power it has to develop its own independent military. 

Also, neither NATO is nor the hypothetical future EU military would be defensive organisations. They have to be mobile 'rapid deployment forces', with global reach in order to keep unruly third world countries under control so that their markets and resources will remain open for exploration. Right now US (i.e. NATO) has the only military with a global reach, to steal resources anywhere they like. So what happens is the US invades Iraq and Afghanistan or wherever and EU countries help them in varying degrees in return for their share of the plunder.

Why would they want to go it alone when that might involve military efforts "on their own account?"  That has not been the European preferred path at least since 1956 at Suez.
This is a choice EU will have to make. Do they want to be a superpower or are they happy enough with their current situation where the US carries the Imperial burdens and reaps its benefits. Maybe it won't be a choice, but depending on the evolution of 'EU', they may have to take on the imperial mantle. Or maybe collapse of the US may force them. If the US economy collapses they won't have the money to fight wars to open third world markets anymore, even if they have the hardware.
 
And, back to the matter about independent major power status, I don't see Europeans as being willing to shoulder those responsibilities any longer.
Maybe. But they may have to be forced to do that. 

Europe as a unified entity would be inimical to US interests in the long run, so they might have to deal with a resurgent Russia on their own.  (Expensive; frought with uncertainty and potential danger)
There is no direct threat from Russia to Europe. They can not invade a 500m population, higher GDP Union with nuclear weapons. There is no point. They will have to deal with Russia, yes, but it will be over the fate of Ukraine or Belarus etc as it is now. Russian scare is just a marketing ploy for NATO (i.e. US) in Europe.


Edited by Beylerbeyi - 29-Jan-2009 at 12:02
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  Quote Reginmund Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29-Jan-2009 at 12:45
Despite being a communist Beylebeyi nails the situation here.

Turkey being a nation of 99% Muslims both is and isn't a problem. In theory it shouldn't be a problem as the Turkish state is secular while Islam simply happens to be the religion of choice among its citizens. Freedom of worship is guaranteed in the EU and many member nations already have Muslim as well as other religious minorities. It raises the question however of whether it's worth alienating the member states with a conservative Christian population, particularly in eastern Europe, who are strongly against Muslims entering the union. I would say no if the resistance is so strong it could threaten the stability of the union.

NATO, while drawing its staff from across all the member states, still has its supreme commands reserved for US officers. It is a heritage from the end of WW2 and the start of the Cold War, when Europe was deemed incapable of defending itself in a Soviet attack scenario. As such NATO served its purpose, but the EU has more than enough resources now to organise a defence of its own without any US involvement, and hence it is only natural that the importance of NATO in Europe is phased out over time. Not that it needs to disappear completely, it is after all the most powerful military alliance in the world and as long as relations between the member states are good there is nothing to gain from dissolving it just for the sake of dissolving it, but the military spendings and responsibilities should be more equally divided between the EU, the US and the remaining independent states.

Concerning the "Russian scare", it is indeed blown out of proportions by the media these days, I don't know whether it's out of ignorance or because sensationalism sells more or both. Russia and the EU however have little to gain and much to lose on a war scenario, and now more than ever is the right time to foster a closer relationship with Russia.
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  Quote Beylerbeyi Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29-Jan-2009 at 13:24
Despite being a communist Beylebeyi nails the situation here.
Not 'despite', 'due to'. 

It raises the question however of whether it's worth alienating the member states with a conservative Christian population, particularly in eastern Europe, who are strongly against Muslims entering the union.
Yea, it is the conservative reaction from the people which is the problem, but it is as strong if not stronger, in Western Europe. Western Europeans don't want any more immigration, especially from a Muslim country. All the Sarkozys and Merkels of Europe have to deal with this fact.

And something recent and relevant on the status of dollar that I have written about:

'Mr Putin also criticised the world's dependence on the dollar.

"Excessive dependence on what is basically the only reserve currency is dangerous for the world economy," he said.

He said that the result was "a serious malfunction in the very system of global economic growth" and that "whole regions of the world, including Europe, found themselves at the periphery of global economic processes" and "were outside the framework of the key economic and financial decisions".'


Putin even signals that he won't object if euro becomes more powerful. I think Russia and EU can more easily agree on deals than Russia with the US, especially when the US is run by rabid neocon dogs or their policies. Old 'Russian scare' Pike is trying to sell Europe is getting more and more irrelevant in this context. 


Edited by Beylerbeyi - 29-Jan-2009 at 14:17
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  Quote Bulldog Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29-Jan-2009 at 14:13
Reginmund
Turkey being a nation of 99% Muslims both is and isn't a problem. In theory it shouldn't be a problem as the Turkish state is secular while Islam simply happens to be the religion of choice among its citizens. Freedom of worship is guaranteed in the EU and many member nations already have Muslim as well as other religious minorities. It raises the question however of whether it's worth alienating the member states with a conservative Christian population, particularly in eastern Europe, who are strongly against Muslims entering the union. I would say no if the resistance is so strong it could threaten the stability of the union..


It is the problem and the EU has been beating around the bush for decades now regarding Turkey's accesion into the "club". For example Bulgaria hasn't had to do half of what Turkey's had to do but they were let straight in.
Turkey has been stupid as well, they should cut the entry talks and threaten to walk away, then the EU will start panicking and forced into changing the stalemate.

In my opinion Turkey will never be accepted and the only way they may get even close to being accepted is if they find another union and walk away from the EU.
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  Quote Reginmund Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29-Jan-2009 at 15:00
Originally posted by Beylerbeyi

Yea, it is the conservative reaction from the people which is the problem, but it is as strong if not stronger, in Western Europe. Western Europeans don't want any more immigration, especially from a Muslim country. All the Sarkozys and Merkels of Europe have to deal with this fact.


This is true and immigration from groups that have proven problematic to integrate should be restricted as much as possible to minimize the harmful effect they have on society. But whether or not they are hard to integrate depends more on cultural traditions than religion, and Turks, who aren't much different from say Greeks, are hardly troublesome in that respect. As an example one of the least successful immigrant groups in my own country are the Somalis, while among the most successful you find the Bosnians. They are both Muslim but as Bosnian culture is far closer to Norwegian they integrate more easily regardless of religion, while Somali culture (and perhaps appearance) is too alien for a similarly smooth process.
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  Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29-Jan-2009 at 17:12
Originally posted by Reginmund

Originally posted by Beylerbeyi

Yea, it is the conservative reaction from the people which is the problem, but it is as strong if not stronger, in Western Europe. Western Europeans don't want any more immigration, especially from a Muslim country. All the Sarkozys and Merkels of Europe have to deal with this fact.


This is true and immigration from groups that have proven problematic to integrate should be restricted as much as possible to minimize the harmful effect they have on society. But whether or not they are hard to integrate depends more on cultural traditions than religion, and Turks, who aren't much different from say Greeks, are hardly troublesome in that respect. As an example one of the least successful immigrant groups in my own country are the Somalis, while among the most successful you find the Bosnians. They are both Muslim but as Bosnian culture is far closer to Norwegian they integrate more easily regardless of religion, while Somali culture (and perhaps appearance) is too alien for a similarly smooth process.


Mr. Ibrahimovic integrated pretty well Star
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  Quote Beylerbeyi Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29-Jan-2009 at 17:42
Actually, popular resistance to foreign immigration is mainly caused by the neo-liberal restructuring of the economy that has taken place since the 70s. When unemployment levels are high, immigrants are the easy scapegoats.  

Combine that with the xenophobia found everywhere, Western racism and recent anti-muslim propaganda and you have serious resistance to foreign immigration. Western masses fear Turkey's EU membership mainly because they think it would lead to more immigration. 
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  Quote Majkes Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29-Jan-2009 at 20:09
Originally posted by Reginmund

Despite being a communist Beylebeyi nails the situation here.

It raises the question however of whether it's worth alienating the member states with a conservative Christian population, particularly in eastern Europe, who are strongly against Muslims entering the union. I would say no if the resistance is so strong it could threaten the stability of the union.

 
Excuse me but wher do you take this information from? Actually it is a total lie. Actually in Poland which I assume You include to conservative Christian population in Eastern Europe according to polls from 2004 68% of Poles were supporting Turkey joining EU. It's really funny how some Western people try to put the blame on their own intolerance for the others. Let's be honest if Turkey was Christian country it would join EU long time ago, before Poland most probably. It's actually the main reason. in Poland there aren't even one party in parliament who would be against Turkey in EU. 
The countries that are against it are in fact Germany, France, Austria and some other old EU countries except Great Britain for sure.
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  Quote Majkes Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29-Jan-2009 at 20:14
Originally posted by es_bih

Originally posted by Reginmund

Originally posted by Beylerbeyi

Yea, it is the conservative reaction from the people which is the problem, but it is as strong if not stronger, in Western Europe. Western Europeans don't want any more immigration, especially from a Muslim country. All the Sarkozys and Merkels of Europe have to deal with this fact.


This is true and immigration from groups that have proven problematic to integrate should be restricted as much as possible to minimize the harmful effect they have on society. But whether or not they are hard to integrate depends more on cultural traditions than religion, and Turks, who aren't much different from say Greeks, are hardly troublesome in that respect. As an example one of the least successful immigrant groups in my own country are the Somalis, while among the most successful you find the Bosnians. They are both Muslim but as Bosnian culture is far closer to Norwegian they integrate more easily regardless of religion, while Somali culture (and perhaps appearance) is too alien for a similarly smooth process.


Mr. Ibrahimovic integrated pretty well Star
 
Wrong country but still a Viking
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  Quote Leonidas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30-Jan-2009 at 01:26
Turkey has some political complications as well- Cyprus/Aegean, occupying an EU state puts it and the EU in an akward position. Can blame the EU for letting Cyrus in to early, but if other countries wanted their 'picks' in, Greece had as much right to negotiate the same. benefits for being an early member i guess.
 
Being Muslim certianly doesnt help, but I dont think its uniformaly important to each country within the EU. But all you need is one bigoted government to pull the plug, like Austria.
 
Having such a politically powerful military doesnt help the case either. Solving these political issues first, should outweigh any religous concerns in the final case by wiping the excuses away.
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  Quote Leonidas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30-Jan-2009 at 01:37
Originally posted by Temujin

Originally posted by Leonidas

yeah but the Greek government is getting priced out of the bond market (default risk is too high), they're only doing short duration bonds, 3-6 months. Its becoming very conceivable the EU will have to step in if it cant roll these boys over.who is a big net funder of the EU? Smile

Italy and the other southern states are also screwed so it wont stop with little Greece


what do you mean by bond market?
Debt market. The Greek governmant is having trouble funding its liabilities (pensions are a big one), if it cant find it on the market from debt buyers (funders) who's going to cover it? It will be the EU.
 
Default rates for Greece shot up this month, so the market are pricing Greece out.
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  Quote Temujin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31-Jan-2009 at 00:12
Originally posted by Leonidas

Debt market. The Greek governmant is having trouble funding its liabilities (pensions are a big one), if it cant find it on the market from debt buyers (funders) who's going to cover it? It will be the EU.
 
Default rates for Greece shot up this month, so the market are pricing Greece out.


yeah OK but no pension funding goes to the EU and Germany can't choose what the money is spend on.
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  Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31-Jan-2009 at 03:20
Originally posted by Majkes

Originally posted by es_bih

Originally posted by Reginmund

Originally posted by Beylerbeyi

Yea, it is the conservative reaction from the people which is the problem, but it is as strong if not stronger, in Western Europe. Western Europeans don't want any more immigration, especially from a Muslim country. All the Sarkozys and Merkels of Europe have to deal with this fact.


This is true and immigration from groups that have proven problematic to integrate should be restricted as much as possible to minimize the harmful effect they have on society. But whether or not they are hard to integrate depends more on cultural traditions than religion, and Turks, who aren't much different from say Greeks, are hardly troublesome in that respect. As an example one of the least successful immigrant groups in my own country are the Somalis, while among the most successful you find the Bosnians. They are both Muslim but as Bosnian culture is far closer to Norwegian they integrate more easily regardless of religion, while Somali culture (and perhaps appearance) is too alien for a similarly smooth process.


Mr. Ibrahimovic integrated pretty well Star
 
Wrong country but still a Viking


Same difference though
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  Quote Leonidas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31-Jan-2009 at 05:03
Originally posted by Temujin

Originally posted by Leonidas

Debt market. The Greek governmant is having trouble funding its liabilities (pensions are a big one), if it cant find it on the market from debt buyers (funders) who's going to cover it? It will be the EU.
 
Default rates for Greece shot up this month, so the market are pricing Greece out.


yeah OK but no pension funding goes to the EU and Germany can't choose what the money is spend on.
I know it wont be directly funded, but the EU will subsidise other parts of their budget, and certianly will make sure the country doesn't go under . It does then indirectly fund these other liabilities. German or Dutch tax payers who are net creditors might not like this situation if their own country (esp personal situation) is in major economic stress. They can (and will) in time connect the dots. My original point was more along the lines of; if everyone is suffering will such charity be tolerated? I think nationalism will start to rise more as everyone tries to look after their own, the EU will have some tough days ahead of it.

Some EU states had done the right thing and others have not, the guys that did will now have to support the more fiscally challenged members. There is a bit of a moral issue within this EU structure of rewarding bad governance, this will be exploited by anti-EU politicians.
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