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Future of Serbia

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Aleksandr01 View Drop Down
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  Quote Aleksandr01 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Future of Serbia
    Posted: 22-Sep-2007 at 22:36
What is the future of the Serbian economy? How will it grow over the next few years and/or decades?

This is for some research I am doing on the country, and there seems to be a lot of well-educated people here, so I was wondering if I might hear your opinions on the subject, if you have any, that is.
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Crystall View Drop Down
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  Quote Crystall Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23-Sep-2007 at 14:00
Serbia has lost alot of power since the breakup of Yugoslavia, as many other important centers of industry were lost. Serbia is looked down apon by much of the "western" nations, and economically that will only hurt them.
 
 
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Aleksandr01 View Drop Down
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  Quote Aleksandr01 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23-Sep-2007 at 18:40
Actually, Serbia's industrial production growth rate has gone from 1.3 % in 2005 to 4.4 % in 2006 to 5.2 % in January to May of 2007. In addition, the nominal Gross Domestic Product per capita has grown thusly:
2003: 2 001 USD
2004: 2 900 USD
2005: 3 140 USD
2006: 4 220 USD
2007: 4 790 USD

This may be due to the recent growth in population, or perhaps there are other reasons that I am unaware of. You are correct though, Crystall, in saying that a membership in the EU and better trade relations with the West will help reduce Serbia's trade deficit. Although, I am not sure how much the U.S. 'looks down upon' Serbia. After all, they are trying to keep the Serbia's current government in office, and they are not doing much to improve the situation there.

Note: If anybody else has different figures for Serbia's nominal GDP per capita, please let me know. Also, do not mix these with Serbia's Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) Gross Domestic Product values. They are different.
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Dan Carkner View Drop Down
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  Quote Dan Carkner Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23-Sep-2007 at 22:53
I'm no expert, but I also think Serbia will continue to recover from the wars of the 1990s just like all the other Balkan countries, and grow more prosperous. (Until the next catastrophe, I guess.)
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  Quote Aleksandr01 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24-Sep-2007 at 19:32
Serbia is recovering well, but there is one big caveat in their path to stability and that is Kosovo. If they do not settle the situation, then they will never be prosperous.

Personally, I believe Kosovo should not be independent. I can't see how there can be any good coming out of it. Perhaps someone might explain to me the benefit of creating a nation that will not be able to sustain itself economically or politically, and will only serve as a breeding ground for terrorists and criminals in Europe.

One more question; does the Serbian economy have any unique assets that may assist in their economic growth in the future?
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  Quote konstantinius Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27-Sep-2007 at 07:04
Serbia occupies the strategic plain of the Vojvodina that extends up into Hungary. It is the only green amongst an otherwise mountainous region. Also, Belgrade is built at the junction of the Sava and the Danube both navigable to a great extend. Every road down from the surrounding mountains had to pass through Serbia's central plain making it an important hub for commerce and industry.
I wish Serbia a prosperous and democratic future in disassociation with the nationalist follies of the (hopefully) past. I also wish that she remained whole. US and EU continue the age-old policy of "balkanization" in the region that has been proved disastrous in the past and only fueled nationalist tendencies everywhere. Kosovo is already a disaster, a haven for arms and drugs trafficking and a nest of virulent armed nationalism (Albanian in this case). As you've said, nothing good for the region can possibly come out of an independent Kosovo but the international arbitrators couldn't (and never have) care less about the interests of the nations involved. My question is why doesn't Russia step in to counter US/EU pressure for the creation of independent Kosovo? What is Russia getting out of this?


Edited by konstantinius - 27-Sep-2007 at 07:05
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Aleksandr01 View Drop Down
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  Quote Aleksandr01 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28-Sep-2007 at 03:02
Great, thanks for the information, konstantinius. Although, I do not believe the U.S. has had much involvement with the Balkans recently. At least not nearly as much as the EU. But, the West certainly is pushing for Kosovo's independence, and is hoping that granting Kosovo independence will end the warfare. They do not truly realize the possible negative ramifications of an action like this.

Russia has taken the alternative stand-point in this debate that truly affects politics on the world scale. The Russian foreign ministry has given statements stating that their position is with Belgrade, and that Moscow will stand by Belgrade indefinitely. The Russians are saying that they want there to be a consistent regulation on the resolution of issues such as these (i.e. when an autonomous republic claims independence from its governing nation). Basically, Russia is trying to keep 'Balkanization' from spreading around the world so that they can hold on to Chechnya and other republics that may claim independence from Russia.
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  Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28-Sep-2007 at 12:45
The Russians are not doing this out of some grand philosophical ideal, please, they implementing the parental role, and backing up Serbia the younger brother, and trying in turn to legitimize their genocidal hold on Chechnya.

Whether Kosovo should be independent or not has nothing to do with the Russians being heavenly angels sent to stop the bad process of Balkanization.

True in some instances further fragmentation can be wrong, and I am not sure what splitting Kosovo will accomplish, however, some of the splintering wasn't totally senseless either.

Yugoslavia a case in point, while definitely instigated on many levels by Western Europe, and the United States for their own economic benefits, Serbia's overly aggressive stance on their sole legitimate role as governor of the Yugoslav peoples was blatantly wrong, and the break up of Yugoslavia in that respect was positive for people breaking free from something that was on its way to becoming overwhelmingly oppressive, and xenophobic.
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  Quote malizai_ Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28-Sep-2007 at 17:35
In the final analysis Serbia will join the EU, and benefit from all the perks.
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  Quote pekau Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29-Sep-2007 at 04:51
Originally posted by malizai_

In the final analysis Serbia will join the EU, and benefit from all the perks.
 
Probably. Seriously, Serbia needs to get their max. potential by somehow solve this racial and religious civil war in Balkans...
     
   
Join us.
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  Quote konstantinius Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30-Sep-2007 at 00:31
The war is officially over in the Balkans but points of friction will persist indefinitely mostly due to existing economic/ethnic tensions and the inability of the West to understand that the solution to regional ethnic problems is not the granting of autonomy and the creation of a dozen new small, non-viable and unrealistic "fiefdoms" but rather strong, stable, central governments that will govern with respect for human rights and local autonomy of areas in question under a federal auspice.  
" I do disagree with what you say but I'll defend to my death your right to do so."
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  Quote Kapikulu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04-Oct-2007 at 20:44

From what I have seen there, Serbia's current situation is far more better than its neighbors and recent EU countries Romania and Bulgaria.

It is enjoying a period of peace and reconciliation after long years of war
 
I believe they will get admitted to EU sometime in 10 years or even sooner.
 
Things will get better.
We gave up your happiness
Your hope would be enough;
we couldn't find neither;
we made up sorrows for ourselves;
we couldn't be consoled;

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  Quote Spartakus Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23-Oct-2007 at 09:37
Future of Serbia?In  terms of borders, probably Kosovo will become independent, although it is not certain yet,since Russia is blocking it.In terms of politics, it will probably enter EU, but i do not believe in the near future.
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  Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23-Oct-2007 at 18:14
The Serbian government finally gave its pledge, and support for the capture of Mladic, and Karadzic, and offers money for their capture. That is a right step for entrance to the EU as their application had been frozen until they amended their latter stance of not attempting to capture the two.
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