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in a coventional war who would have won u

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Poll Question: in a conventional war in 1987 who would have won nato or warsaw pact
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12 [75.00%]
4 [25.00%]
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  Quote Mosquito Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: in a coventional war who would have won u
    Posted: 13-Jul-2010 at 13:21
Originally posted by Kanas_Krumesis

I think this data is too lowered and not real. Soldiers in service does not mean soldiers after mobilization. We both know how fast and overall this could be made in one communist state.
 
Doesnt matter. Without most of the US forces which were not in Europe, concenrning the fact that some of the NATO armies wouldnt participate in the war on the begining (Portugal, Spain, Italy), that some of the Nato forces wouldnt exist because those states would be occupied in the first day of war (Denmark, Norway) and concenring the fact that the biggest blow would be recived by US forces in Germany and German army, the remaining resistance wouldnt be strong.  The advantage is always on the attacking side, especially if NATO was surprised by WP attack.
 
 
And yes, this data might be lowered because it is data for year 1991. I know that few years earlier Poland had 500.000 strong standing army so it looks like it was partly disbanded. Probably in the other WP countries the number of troops was also lowered.


Edited by Mosquito - 13-Jul-2010 at 14:06
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  Quote Mosquito Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13-Jul-2010 at 14:14
When i posted the warsaw pact forces - rocket launchers - I meant moblile rocket launchers on the tracked and halftracked vihicles:
 
 
 -SS-21: range 70-120 km
- SS-23: range 500 km
- SS-1C/D: range 600-700 km
- SS-22:  range 900 km
- SS-20: range 4500 km
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  Quote Mosquito Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13-Jul-2010 at 14:21
Right now i found the info i needed.
 
According to the Warsaw Pact plan of attack all the western Europe was supposed to be occupied before USA will be able to transfer enough big forces to Europe and to stop the attack. It was considered that if the operation will take 16 days, it will be enough and the plan was considered as realistic.


Edited by Mosquito - 13-Jul-2010 at 14:29
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  Quote opuslola Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13-Jul-2010 at 14:27
Again, you pesky, blood sucking insect!, you have found the answer!

Except you forgot the thousands of "wire guided" anti-tank missiles that were specifically designated to destroy the Soviet Armour!

You might well not know it but the terrain of a lot of W. Europe was massaged to make the Soviet forces have to concentrate their forces at specific places!

I see no way that the Soviets could have done better, without the use of nukes, than our planners had predicted?

And, I have not even metioned our ability to "jam" Soviet communications!

Sorry, some of my information may still be covered?

Edited by opuslola - 13-Jul-2010 at 14:30
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  Quote Mosquito Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13-Jul-2010 at 14:40
Originally posted by opuslola

Again, you pesky, blood sucking insect!, you have found the answer!

Except you forgot the thousands of "wire guided" anti-tank missiles that were specifically designated to destroy the Soviet Armour!

You might well not know it but the terrain of a lot of W. Europe was massaged to make the Soviet forces have to concentrate their forces at specific places!

I see no way that the Soviets could have done better, without the use of nukes, than our planners had predicted?

And, I have not even metioned our ability to "jam" Soviet communications!

Sorry, some of my information may still be covered?
 
 
Still doesnt matter. According to the plan of attack, Warsaw Pact was supposed to use tactital nuclear weapon before the advancing panzer collumns. In the plan was written that under protection of the tanks and armoured vehicles the soldiers will suffer from radiation but will keep combat readiness for about next 14 days - next would be disabled or start dieing from radiation sickness .


Edited by Mosquito - 13-Jul-2010 at 14:50
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  Quote Mosquito Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13-Jul-2010 at 14:46
But really this plan wasnt possible to launch for one but important reason - and the Soviets knew it. Colonel Kuklinski of the Polish army, officer of Warsaw Pact Headquaters, stole them  and gave to CIA.
 
Some info from Wikipedia:
 
 
 
Ryszard Jerzy Kukliński (June 13, 1930 – February 11, 2004) was a Polish colonel and Cold War spy. He passed top secret Warsaw Pact documents to the CIA between 1971 and 1981. Former United States National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzeziński has described him as "the first Polish officer in NATO."Kukliński was born in Warsaw into a working class family with socialist traditions. His father was a member of the Polish resistance movement during World War II who was captured by the Gestapo and died in the Sachsenhausen concentration camp. After the war, Kukliński began a successful career in the Polish People's Army. He took part in the preparations for the Warsaw Pact's invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968.

Disturbed by this invasion of Czechoslovakia and by the brutal crushing of the Polish 1970 protests, in 1972 Kukliński had a letter sent to the US embassy in Bonn that described himself as "an foregen MAF from Communistische Kantry" (sic) and requested a secret meeting.[1] In 1994 Kukliński said that his awareness of the "unambiguously offensive" nature of Soviet military plans was an important factor in his decision to communicate the details of those plans to the United States, adding that "Our front could only be a sacrifice of Polish blood at the altar of the Red Empire"[2] Kukliński was also concerned that his homeland would be turned into a nuclear wasteland as the Warsaw Pact's superiority in conventional forces would mean NATO would respond to a military action with tactical nuclear weapons.

Between 1971 and 1981 he passed 35,000 pages of mostly Soviet secret documents to the CIA. The documents described Moscow's strategic plans regarding the use of nuclear weapons, technical data about the T-72 tank and Strela-1 missiles, the whereabouts of Soviet anti-aircraft bases in Poland and East Germany, the methods used by the Soviets to avoid spy satellite detection of their military hardware, plans for the imposition of martial law in Poland, and many other matters.

Facing imminent danger of discovery, Kukliński was spirited out of Poland by the CIA, along with his wife and two sons, shortly before the imposition of martial law in December 1981. On May 23, 1984 Kukliński was sentenced to death, in absentia, by a secret military court in Warsaw. After the fall of communism, the sentence was changed to 25 years. In 1995 the court cancelled the sentence and said that Kuklinski was acting under special circumstances that warranted a higher need. Kukliński visited Poland again in April 1998.


Edited by Mosquito - 13-Jul-2010 at 15:01
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  Quote TheGreatSimba Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13-Jul-2010 at 14:50
Interesting information. Now, when they say that the WP countries forces were superior, are we talking numbers or also technologically?

Also, the scenario we are considering is conventional war (no usage of nukes), and I'm still convinced that the WP countries would not win a long term war against NATO. Economically they simply would not be able to sustain their war effort.
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  Quote Mosquito Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13-Jul-2010 at 14:55
Originally posted by TheGreatSimba

Interesting information. Now, when they say that the WP countries forces were superior, are we talking numbers or also technologically?

Also, the scenario we are considering is conventional war (no usage of nukes), and I'm still convinced that the WP countries would not win a long term war against NATO. Economically they simply would not be able to sustain their war effort.

 
The equipment of NATO and WP in 80ties was comparable, some western arms were better, some soviets were better. For example Soviet Mig 29 was considered the best fighter of those times. As for the war effort - if the WP conquered western europe in 16 days, it would fight only USA and Canada - which were behind the ocean.
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  Quote TheGreatSimba Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13-Jul-2010 at 15:03
See, I dont believe that the WP countries would have taken Europe in 16 days. The WP countries would have been stalled in Central Europe.

Furthermore, Russia would have to deal with the United States on its Eastern shores (Pacific side). The United States Navy dominated the Soviet Navy so much that the Soviets didnt even bother to compete with it.

The United States would have easily blockaded the Warsaw Pact countries, further harming their struggling economies. US basis in Turkey would have bombarded Western Russia to a pulp.

The United States would have, with its naval superiority, kept the WP countries at bay until it could land reinforcements on Europe, if they were even necessary.
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  Quote Mosquito Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13-Jul-2010 at 15:15
Originally posted by TheGreatSimba

See, I dont believe that the WP countries would have taken Europe in 16 days. The WP countries would have been stalled in Central Europe.

Furthermore, Russia would have to deal with the United States on its Eastern shores (Pacific side). The United States Navy dominated the Soviet Navy so much that the Soviets didnt even bother to compete with it.

The United States would have easily blockaded the Warsaw Pact countries, further harming their struggling economies. US basis in Turkey would have bombarded Western Russia to a pulp.

The United States would have, with its naval superiority, kept the WP countries at bay until it could land reinforcements on Europe, if they were even necessary.
 
Why dont you first read some more things before starting posting nuissences? Do you think that YOU THE GREAT SIMBA are more clever than thousands of generals, strategists and tacticians who were preparing invasion plans for years? Do you belive that they all were stupid and tried to do somthing what is impossible but you can clearly see what would be the result? Why dont you first just read somthing about Soviet fleet and its goals in case of invasion on western Europe? How can you belive that US superiority on the sea would stop 70.000 tanks in Germany? Do you think that US atlantic fleet wouldnt be busy enough in case of invasion to care mostly for its self? Have you ever heard about soviet aricrafts and rockets which were designed and built only for 1 thing - sinking the US aircraft carriers?
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  Quote opuslola Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13-Jul-2010 at 15:19
Hey, I thought that tactical nukes were removed from this discussion?

You all might well notice that the title of this entire thread is "conventional war!"

If we avoid that particular word, then in that case, it might well have been worse for the Russkies?

Our Atomic cannon were better than theirs! As well, none of us know just how many Nukes were really buried in the valleys and passes that the Soviet might have been forced to use?

Secrets are secrets! Even today!

Prosit!

Edited by opuslola - 13-Jul-2010 at 15:24
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  Quote TheGreatSimba Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13-Jul-2010 at 15:30
Originally posted by Mosquito

Why dont you first read some more things before starting posting nuissences? Do you think that YOU THE GREAT SIMBA are more clever than thousands of generals, strategists and tacticians who were preparing invasion plans for years? Do you belive that they all were stupid and tried to do somthing what is impossible but you can clearly see what would be the result?


Calm down.

Its funny you claim that I need to do more reading yet you're basing all your arguments on WP countries plans, you think NATO didnt have plans of their own? Just as the Soviets had offensive and defensive plans, so did NATO.

Originally posted by Mosquito


 Why dont you first just read somthing about Soviet fleet and its goals in case of invasion on western Europe? How can you belive that US superiority on the sea would stop 70.000 tanks in Germany? Do you think that US atlantic fleet wouldnt be busy enough in case of invasion to care mostly for its self? Have you ever heard about soviet aricrafts and rockets which were designed and built only for 1 thing - sinking the US aircraft carriers?


Yes, because the Soviets could not compete with the US on the sea, they focus on anti-ship tactics, such as missiles and planes, yet once again, you dont even think for one second NATO responses to such things.

You are looking at all of this from one perspective, why dont you look at it from NATO's perspective?

We are considering a CONVENTIONAL WAR (no nuclear weapons) and in a CONVENTIONAL WAR the WP countries would not have overran Europe in 16 days. Sorry to burst your bubble, it doesnt even sound realistic.

It took Germany a month just to take France even though they had complete air superiority and surprise on their side.

You claim that the WP countries could have taken all of Europe in just 16 days even though Europe was planning for and expecting such scenarios, and were ready for them at all times (it was the COLD WAR)

Fact is that both sides made their plans with nuclear weapons in mind. What we are talking about is a scenario without nukes. This would have resulted in a long drawn out and bloody war, nothing as quick as you suggest.



Edited by TheGreatSimba - 13-Jul-2010 at 15:37
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  Quote Mosquito Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13-Jul-2010 at 15:52
TheGreatSimba just try to understand few things. Soviet forces didnt have to defeat US Navy- only to stop it for few days - and were able to do it. They didnt have to sink US Navy to achieve the goals of operation. They have invented the plans of sinking US aircraft carriers which were quite realistic (even if the forces designed to do it were annihilated during the attack) what would highly limit US supremacy on the seas, and it was enough. To win the war you dont have to kill all enemies, somtimes it is just enough to stop them for long enough to achieve its own targets.
 
 
As for NATO readiness to stop WP offensive I would rate chances 70% for WP and 30% for NATO. You seems to forget few things. First of all, NATO forces would be attacked in few places by the whole might of WP, while NATO forces were not concentrated. How much time would it take to transfer forces from Spain, Portugal, Britain where they were needed? How would Denmark and Norwey defend itself in the first 2-3 days? And dont even dare to belive that NATO would have air superiority. The truth is that in the first few days the whole preassure would be on the US forces in Europe and not so big West German army. You also dont understand one thing. Western general would care for the lifes of their soldiers and try to spare them, while Soviet Commanders (and they were WP highest commanders) were ready to sacrifice millions of lifes to achieve their goals and targets. In my opinion it was quite possible that WP would take over western Europe in 16 days but only using the strategy "whatever the cost". And they were going to use this strategy.


Edited by Mosquito - 13-Jul-2010 at 15:55
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  Quote TheGreatSimba Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13-Jul-2010 at 16:19
Originally posted by Mosquito

TheGreatSimba just try to understand few things. Soviet forces didnt have to defeat US Navy- only to stop it for few days - and were able to do it. They didnt have to sink US Navy to achieve the goals of operation. They have invented the plans of sinking US aircraft carriers which were quite realistic (even if the forces designed to do it were annihilated during the attack) what would highly limit US supremacy on the seas, and it was enough. To win the war you dont have to kill all enemies, somtimes it is just enough to stop them for long enough to achieve its own targets.
 
 
As for NATO readiness to stop WP offensive I would rate chances 70% for WP and 30% for NATO. You seems to forget few things. First of all, NATO forces would be attacked in few places by the whole might of WP, while NATO forces were not concentrated. How much time would it take to transfer forces from Spain, Portugal, Britain where they were needed? How would Denmark and Norwey defend itself in the first 2-3 days? And dont even dare to belive that NATO would have air superiority. The truth is that in the first few days the whole preassure would be on the US forces in Europe and not so big West German army. You also dont understand one thing. Western general would care for the lifes of their soldiers and try to spare them, while Soviet Commanders (and they were WP highest commanders) were ready to sacrifice millions of lifes to achieve their goals and targets. In my opinion it was quite possible that WP would take over western Europe in 16 days but only using the strategy "whatever the cost". And they were going to use this strategy.


Wow, I'll just let some one else respond to this. I dont even think the most optimistic Soviet general would agree with your assessment.
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  Quote DreamWeaver Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14-Jul-2010 at 03:59
2 points to consider.

Who gets the kick off? The war starts, all well and good, but who fires first shots, or more importantly, who gets pre-emptive attacks?

Quality vs quantity. Iraq's T72s and others were no real match for coalition tanks, even though Iraq had more armour than the Coalition forces.

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  Quote Mosquito Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14-Jul-2010 at 05:15
Originally posted by DreamWeaver

2 points to consider.

Who gets the kick off? The war starts, all well and good, but who fires first shots, or more importantly, who gets pre-emptive attacks?

Quality vs quantity. Iraq's T72s and others were no real match for coalition tanks, even though Iraq had more armour than the Coalition forces.

 
T72 was designed as the first wave attack tank. In fact they all were supposed to be destroyed together with their crews. In 1982 in Liban T 72 proved to be an equal opponent against American tanks, with very effective cannon 125 mm, but unsufficient armour. In Liban many times the bullets of T 72 were able to throw out the turret of american M 60 Patton tanks. In 1991 in Iraq war T 72 wasnt an equal opponent against allied Abrams and chaleger tanks, but Iraq had only the oldest versions of T 72 tanks. Soviet army had also about 5000 T 80 tanks.


Edited by Mosquito - 14-Jul-2010 at 05:19
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  Quote warwolf1969 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14-Jul-2010 at 05:24
The WP plan would rely upon a total tactical surprise, which they would never get.  Remember that the figures for the WP forces include catagory B and C troops, which would have to be mobalised.  Nato would be on alert the moment catagory B divs were mobilised.  As soon as any Cat C divs were mobilised then Nato would be on war footing.  US re-enforcements would be either all ready in Europe or on their way.  At that point the WP plan fails, Nato holds them somewhere around the Rhine.  WP economys fail after a few weeks of trying to support a massive war, NATO wins. 
Any premptive strike would only use Cat A divs, which brings the numbers down to a more even balance.  At that point NATO's qualitive advantage kicks in.  With better tanks, AT weaponry and training again the WP attack becomes blunted on the Rhine.  Same result, so either way the WP losses.  The only way they could win was through the use of Nukes, which is why they are so central to their plans.  As this thread specifially states no Nukes, WP lose.
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  Quote opuslola Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14-Jul-2010 at 06:14
As I mentioned earlier, it is my understanding that from the 1950's, till the 1980', or so, the NATO strategy was to force any attacking Soviet forces into valleys of distruction. Large portions of the old Eastern border area of old W. Germany were actually physically converted to defensive positions. Ridges and hill tops, were either used as found or manipulated into defensive positions for the tens of thousands of tank killing wire guided missiles.

Anti-tank helicopter units trained to hide behind these ridges, and tree lines, and pop-up fire and drop down behind cover! The theory being that if the Soviets could not get a good look at them, they could not hit them! Ground troops also had their wire guided missiles and anti-aircraft defenses! Who knows what other plans were conceived, perhaps blowing dams and flooding the Soviets in the valleys was even considered where feasible?

One has to understand that just because the Soviet forces had thousands of tanks in the West,this does not mean that the mass of them could be considered reliable enough, or that they were maintained well enough to actually field them! Soviet and their allied divisions were known for years to exist by canabilizing their own equipment, and selling it on the black market! Rubber, fuel, metals, etc., were routinely stolen and sold, so the actual percentage of Soviet armour that might hit the road, so to speak, was considered to only be a partial number compared to the Book Total! Let's say, one might consider that only 200 or a 400 tank division, whould actually be able to attack from the front!

I could go on about it, but NATO really considered the Soviet forces facing them as a "paper tiger", that could not press an attack in force for very many days!

There existed a great many defectors during this period and I am sure that the real status of the Soviet forces was pretty much known to the NATO high command.

But, of course, as always, I could be wrong?

Regards,

Edited by opuslola - 14-Jul-2010 at 06:17
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  Quote Maximus Germanicus I Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14-Jul-2010 at 06:59
Mosquito like always is wrong,
 
First there were 3,700 M1s in Europe at the time. (or on PPAFO) The M1 was battle tested and when facing T-72s were very succesfull
 
The M1A1 was capable of making kills at ranges in excess of 2,500 metres (8,200 ft). This range was crucial in combat against tanks of Soviet design in Desert Storm, as the effective range of the main gun in the Soviet/Iraqi tanks was less than 2,000 metres (6,600 ft)
 
The M-60 was also battle tested they destroyed T-72s in the Gulf war and in the Isreali -Egyptina war.
 
But guess what the British Cheiftans and Challengers were even better and they were in Europe waiting for the WP. I an not even counting the 1,000 plus lepard 2s (which had M! FCO sysetems in optics, and the nearly 4,000 lepaord 1s that where in Equal match for the T-72. Then you had 1,000 AMX 30 from the French, this coupled with a defensive terrian tanks dug in in depth a lot of River crossings gave the allies a huge advnatge in Armor.
 
Now the Mosquito will say what about the T-80s--The bug said They had 5,000 of them--Wrong my insect friend there were about 2,700 iproduced by 1987, and of those maybe half were battle ready. Further when the T-80 went to combat it was considered a FAILURE, A FAILURE
 
"Out of all armored vehicles that entered Grozny, 225 were destroyed in the first month alone, representing 10.23% of all the tanks committed to the campaign. The T-80 performed so poorly that General-Lieutenant A. Galkin, the head of the Armor Directorate, convinced the Minister of Defence after the conflict to never again procure tanks with gas-turbine engines.  After that T-80 MBTs were never again used to capture cities and instead supported infantry squads from a safe distance.

Kolekcja Czołgi Świata, Issue 8, pp 11,12 http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/land/row/rusav.htm Mikhail Zakharchuk, 'Uroki Chechenskogo krizisa' (Lessons of the Chechen crisis), Armeyskiy sbornik, April 1995, 46.

Further
 
Recently, the Russians seem to be abandoning the T-80s design. Perhaps because of the turbine-powered tank's high fuel consumption, and the poor combat performance of older T-80BV tanks in Chechnya,  the Russian Army decided to standardize on the T-90 derived from the T-72BMZaloga 2000, p 3.
 
So really the T-72 was the better tank, and when the T-72 went head to head with the M1 the Patton or the Lepoard or the CT the T-72 lost. The T-80 was an abject failure. And Guess what we are not even into the good stuff yet. Even if we went Tank on Tank the Allies win
 
But the two most important things were the TOW (along with the MILAN, SPIKE, DRAGON and COPPERHEAD) and the Apache. The Apache could set back and blast Soviet tanks with hellfires from miles and miles away, and based on allied control of friendly Airspace the WP could not stop them. This coupled with the valleys of death with literally 10s of thousands of wire guided missles meant that the WP would never make it across the Rhine. Granted Germany would be destroyed. By the way i have personally seen Hellfires shred T-80s and T-72s it isn't pretty.
 
Also not to mention the better trained and better equipped western soldier vs the conscript Russian/WP soldier


Edited by Maximus Germanicus I - 14-Jul-2010 at 07:07
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  Quote Maximus Germanicus I Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14-Jul-2010 at 07:04
Originally posted by Mosquito

Originally posted by DreamWeaver

2 points to consider.

Who gets the kick off? The war starts, all well and good, but who fires first shots, or more importantly, who gets pre-emptive attacks?

Quality vs quantity. Iraq's T72s and others were no real match for coalition tanks, even though Iraq had more armour than the Coalition forces.

 
T72 was designed as the first wave attack tank. In fact they all were supposed to be destroyed together with their crews. In 1982 in Liban T 72 proved to be an equal opponent against American tanks, with very effective cannon 125 mm, but unsufficient armour. In Liban many times the bullets of T 72 were able to throw out the turret of american M 60 Patton tanks. In 1991 in Iraq war T 72 wasnt an equal opponent against allied Abrams and chaleger tanks, but Iraq had only the oldest versions of T 72 tanks. Soviet army had also about 5000 T 80 tanks.
 
Do you just make this stuff up--The T-72 was a failure against the M1 and the Patton. It was proven over and over again, where do you get these comments can you cite them--becuase I can cite my sources. You are really going to claim that sombody for the WP era Polish intell world is a relaible source--I have read a lot of books by former soviet generals and spys most of them confirm they were a paper tiger.


Edited by Maximus Germanicus I - 14-Jul-2010 at 07:11
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