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If Truman had permitted atomic war in Korea

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  Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: If Truman had permitted atomic war in Korea
    Posted: 07-Aug-2007 at 07:20
Harry S Trumen, the man who should never have been anything let alone President, became through sheer accident the most influential president of the post-war era. The decision he took would, shape US and thus world policy for the rest of the century.
 
It is interesting that it is one decision that he did not take  that shaped the world more than any, when in 1951 he refused General MacArthur request for nuclear strikes against Korean and Chinese targets on a plan made by the USAF's Strategic Air Command. MacArthur was no blood thirsty war mongerer, he had opposed the atomic strikes against Japan in WWII.  Fast forward 6 years and the roles were reversed.
 
This raises an interesting what if? Suppose Truman had allowed the USAF plan to go ahead? It was not unlikley that he would have afterall, this is the man who had ordered Hiroshima, and he had not suffered a crisis of conscience since, he had threatened to use nukes during the Berlin blockade.
 
By refusing MacArthurs request, Truman the man who let the nuclear genie out of its bottles,  not exactly put it back, but restricted it, creating the nuclear taboo, that has been maintained since, whereby niclear nations have avoided the use of their arsenals even when it made mulitary sence.
 
How would the unleashing of SAC have altered history, both in the near and long term? These points need to be discussed.
 
-THe effects on the war itself; would there have been USSR intervention, the Sovs had nukes by then, but no delivery system to get them to the US.
 
-The effect on China of the 100 plus strikes SAC had planned.
 
- The employment of nukes in other wars, such as Suez or Vietnam, would nations be more willing to employ them and actually do so, the elimination  of Cairo or Hanoi for instance
 
-Would there even have been a Vietnam, since Ike may not have refused premission for attacks by the French as he did historically, if Truman had no refused in Korea.
 
-Could they have been used by the Sovs in Afghanistan?
 
You presume that Truman let MacArthur have his way in  this discussion. The merits of such a decision is not under scruitny, its effects are.
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  Quote Seko Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07-Aug-2007 at 19:48

Hard to tell the ramifications of a non-decision without going into numerous hypothetical scenarios. MacArthur was leery of Soviet ambitions. China was a political teapot.  Communism would pose a threat to western leadership. He felt the future of the world would be decided in Asia and not in Europe. These worries of his were recorder before the outbrake of WWII. Since then we all know what happened, his mentality was shaped further by its aftermath. I could understand the grave sense of urgency MacArthur felt. 

Now onto the meat of this hyperbole. Had the A-Bomb been dropped on the communist Koreans the cat would have been out of the bag. Soviet Russia would have a need to assert itself. China could have been the recipient of an illegal arms gift to use in her own backyard. Then the United Nations forces would have to face reciprocal action. Both the N & S Korean peninsulas would look like moon craters. That could have been scene one of this 'What if' scenario.
 
In another scenario MacArthur would have bombed China. Russian bombs were still the only counter force capable of reaking havoc on UN forces. The Soviets would not use them directly. Instead she would wait it out. The Chinese would lick her wounds. The South Koreans would unite the peninsula. Americans would be feared till scenario three.


Edited by Seko - 07-Aug-2007 at 19:57
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  Quote Constantine XI Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07-Aug-2007 at 21:05
For one thing, I think that the Americans would only be able to deploy nukes in a limited capacity. The Soviets would have held the US to ransom and threatened to take out Europe West of the Iron Curtain. No American president could possibly survive electorally after being partly responsible for a nuclear holocaust in half of Europe.
 
So because of this I think the hypothetical posed here needs some revision. The Soviets would have bombed Europe (perhaps leaving a few countries unscathed to hold as ransom as a way of discouraging US attacks on the SU itself) if the US nuked China. But if the US restricted its use of nukes to military targets in the Korean Peninsula itself, this may have been soft enough to not provoke the SU to destroying most of Europe.
 
The result would be containment policy bolstered by the convention that if regular communist armies invaded a territory, tactical nukes would be used on those troops. Consequently, I think the communist bloc would resort far more to use of subversive methods in taking over countries. Also I think the US would have used A bombs at Dien Bien Phu like their naval commander recommended, perhaps preserving French rule in Indo China for a time and ensuring the Americans never needed to send their troops to Vietnam.
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  Quote hugoestr Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07-Aug-2007 at 22:35
Here is the scenario that I believe was somewhat the reason why Truman didn't allow a nuclear attack. The U.S. nuclear attacks would have triggered a war with China.

The U.S. would not have been able to win a war against China for the simple reason that it lacked the amount of people to wage a conventional war. This meant that the U.S. would have had to wage nuclear war on China. The U.S. would have drained their meager resources that was recovering from WWII, and, since it was the major economic power during the post war, this could have started a big economic crisis.

After that, I think that it is hard to tell what would have happened. The world would be dramatically different.


Also, you should revise your judgment on Truman. As you said, Truman set up US policies that were followed by every president since then. One should thank him for reigning in the hawks, who always think of themselves as cool strategic realist, yet often are just sadists dressing up their thirst for blood.
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  Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07-Aug-2007 at 23:41

My take on this is,

-The Chinese would have been defeated and possibly condemned to another century of irrelevence and domination.

-The Sovs would have reacted, as said they could not attack the mainland US, but they could attack W Europe up to S of England. Now the US was already committed to the defence of Europe by then, and was not exactly shy of declaring its attention to attack the Soviet Union, thus a US Nuclear c**ter attack was very possible. Thus I agree with Seko, retaliation would have come through a different means.
 
-All in all, nations would have been much more willing to use nukes and there emloyment could have been seen at Dien Bien Phu and perhaps in the 1973 Arab-Israeli war.
 
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  Quote hugoestr Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08-Aug-2007 at 22:41
Sparten,

How would the U.S. win against China? It probably lacked the amount of people just to occupy the country. The U.S. would had fought as an invading force against a people defending their homeland.

And even though it is true that the U.S. could have dropped A-bombs, China could have borrow a few from the USSR and drop it on the U.S. positions, killings any significant American armies.

And the Chinese leaders had experience on resisting an invading force and being on the run.

They would have counted on weapons from the USSR since the USSR would have assumed that if the U.S. was so reckless to invade China, it would be next, so they would rather keep the conflict in China for as long as possible.

And assuming that the U.S. had the capacity to bomb the entire country, what would it had won? A massive nuclear waste area?

The Truman administration seems to have been aware of this; general McArthur wasn't
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  Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09-Aug-2007 at 06:11

The Chinese would have been rendered unable to act in Korea. The Russians at this time only had a few nukes and giving them to others was more or less out of the question.

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  Quote hugoestr Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09-Aug-2007 at 18:18
Sparten,

Remember that McArthur was set to invade China. He would not have stopped in Korea, which is what made him so dangerous in the area.

The main goal of the mission was accomplished without using any nuclear weapons; in other words, it cost a lot less that it would have. I see this as a superior outcome.
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  Quote Renegade Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22-Aug-2009 at 17:04
I likely wouldn't have been born because my grandparents lived in Manchuria and that would probably have been a main target.
 
Anyways, even against nukes there is no doubt that China, under Mao, would fight on as the country gets ravaged and millions of its people dying. After all, China didn't have a problem with sacrificing lots of people in the Korean War did it? I believe however, that the US would conquer North Korea and continue on to China, but somewhere after taking Beijing will decide to cut its losses and leave.
 
The US will also receive worldwide condemnation and might not have had as much support as it did with non-NATO countries. Also using nukes in the Korean War will escalate relations between US and the Soviet Union and both will threaten nuclear attacks on each other, making WW3 very likely.
"I kill a few so that many may live."

- Sam Fisher
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