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Can technology win the war in Iraq?

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  Quote Maharbbal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Can technology win the war in Iraq?
    Posted: 03-Jul-2007 at 18:03
On the net there are plenty of articles about new tech the US army could use to win the war in Iraq and Afghanistan. It makes no doubt in my mind that 90% of them are grossly over stating the real impact of their inventions.
The trend seems to follow three ways: less-lethal weapons, unmanned vehicles and IT military gadgets. The one thing that struck me was the fact that these were materials that could be used equally by police or the military. Considering the job of the troops is to ensure security (their own and the Iraqis'), their mission looks indeed very close to a police operation. An extreme one, but still.

Bagdad is a cop's nightmare alright: it's huge, it's messy and it is overcrowded. But couldn't CCTVs be installed the city over to find suspects or at least track them down once they've committed their action and then see where they were coming from.
Similarly, shouldn't road-blocks be controlled via robots while the crew remains safely in bunkers?
Finally, tough gunfight is common but very often (at a road block for instance) the troops seem to have little choice if one is behaving weirdly that to shoot at him or do nothing. Police forces in the West are increasingly equipped with tazers and other less-lethal weapons.

To a certain extent, the NYPD seems more fit to the mission in Iraq then the USMC or the army. Do you agree or do you think I'm completely wrong?
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  Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04-Jul-2007 at 07:33
No. The problem in Iraq is the making of Tommy Franks.  He misidentified the center of gravity  of the enemy, failed to disarm the locals and isolate them from the insurgents. Its not like that the insurgency or at least an insurrcetion of some sorts was not warned against pre-war. If these had been done when the US still had momentum from the initial attack, then the insurgency could have been avoided or mitigated. Somewhere in summer '03, the US lost the initiative.
 
The problem now is not the use of technology,  but strategic. The US is now reacting to the enemy, its the latter not the former who are setting the agenda and choosing the ground. WHile this occurs the US cannot win. Personally I think that Iraq is too far gone, to be savable by any tech (except nukes, but thats anothet story) still Pratreus's new strategy of going after the insurgents could change the strategic outlook.


Edited by Sparten - 04-Jul-2007 at 07:35
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  Quote Dolphin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04-Jul-2007 at 08:04
I don't think a way to 'save' Iraq is by nuke, but I agree generally with your opinions, Sparten. Overall, i think there can be no 'victory' per se in Iraq, just a slowdown of activities or phasing out of foreign troops. The robot technology just simply isn't there at the minute to even conceivably be used at road blocks, as it is our ability (whether used or not) to be able to interpret any specific situation and take the appropriate action. So, human control of roadblocks is paramount.
 
CCTV is not viable either, as not only would they cost billions to install, they would have to be managed by a large amount of police, as well as causing a huge pile-up in terms of enforcement, as law-breakers would have to be tracked down, whether murderers or petty thieves, meaning a further stretching of already dangerously stretched resources. Anyway, what would stop insurgents pulling them down?
 
Tazers etc are an aspiration, but are employed in the west because their countries are not at civil war, where every family has at least one gun and are very willing to use it, as well as there being active, well armed units determined to kill at any cost. Tazers at the minute are just not enough.
 
Pulling out slowly, tail firmly placed between legs is the safest option for the foreign troops in Iraq, but of course this will not make the country any safer for the Iraqies.
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  Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04-Jul-2007 at 08:58
Use of technology is not the issue, (and I was being flippant about the nukes). The fact is that even if these techs were used the insurgents would change tactics. They already have done that before. What you need is a new strategy. Prataeus seems to be attempting to do that.
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  Quote hugoestr Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05-Jul-2007 at 09:06
First, I agree with Maharbbal that technology is not going to save the situation in Iraq. It is ironic that there are claims to this considering how the Bush administration refused to increase the size of the military because they thought that technology would be able to replace many people.

I will disagree with Spartan in talking about an enemy. From what I understand, there isn't an enemy to target, but an ever changing ethnic and nationalistic conflict that the U.S. didn't prepare to deal with, and even then it would be hard for them to handle. So, one week our enemy are the Sunni uprising, but the next week they are out ally against the Shia, only to have the roles reversed a few weeks later. When your allies and enemies keep changing, one cannot focus on any one of them.

From what I understand, and please anyone who knows better about the situation correct me here, there is a gun culture in Iraq similar to that found in the U.S. Most households have weapons for self-defense. As violence change and locals are threatened by it, they dust off the gun, and defend themselves.

So, general Franks would have had disarmed the whole nation to prevent uprisings, which was just not possible. Doing so would bring the same reaction that doing this in the U.S. would bring: an uprising.

Finally, the strategy that the Iraqi are using to get rid of the occupation force is the same one that General Washington conducted to get rid of the English: make the colonies so expensive that the occupying force decides that it is not worth keeping the occupation. Yes, Washington engaged them in battles, but if he had to fight the war today, we would have adopted very similar tactics as those used in Vietnam and Iraq.

Quite frankly, I don't know of any ploy that can overcome this strategy against occupation once the insurgency is widespread enough, as it has happened in Iraq. Wars are expensive, both in lives and money, and citizens get sick of never ending wars that produce no concrete results.
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  Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05-Jul-2007 at 11:39
You don't need to disarm the whole nation, you can start with the Iraqi Army, as it was the US just bypassesd them with the result that these people just melted away and became the seeds around which the insurgency. As I said, you need to disarm the populace as well as isolate it from the insurgents.
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  Quote Dolphin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05-Jul-2007 at 11:42
Hugoestr - wasnt maharbbal saying that technology could win the war in Iraq..?
 
Just an interpretation point
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  Quote hugoestr Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05-Jul-2007 at 12:28
Sparten,

One of the actions that the U.S. took which they are now being blamed for is that they disbanded the Iraqi Army during their de-bathization program. The U.S. occupation government also made it impossible for them to get jobs, so that they would revolt wasn't that shocking.

Remember, most of these people have a firearms culture similar to the U.S. And in many ways, it is a lot more justified to have it in Iraq. To disarm every potential insurgent means to disarm the whole nation. It is not going to happen.

Then there is the problem with the "insurgency." As I said before, the problem is that the "insurgency" is constantly changing. There is no unified insurgency. There is no bad guys that we can focus on. It changes depending on what has happened and whom the U.S. feels is more dangerous at that point.

Dolphin,

If I misunderstood, Maharbbal, he can correct me, but this sentence seems to say that he doubts that technology is the only solution.
On the net there are plenty of articles about new tech the US army could use to win the war in Iraq and Afghanistan. It makes no doubt in my mind that 90% of them are grossly over stating the real impact of their inventions.
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  Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05-Jul-2007 at 12:56
The thing is when you mean "disarm", you don't mean take a gun from every single person, only that you isolate the organized groups and prevent them from acting effectivly.
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  Quote hugoestr Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05-Jul-2007 at 15:06
Well, under normal circumstances your definition of disarm is correct, but when you have a firearm culture, you do need to disarm the whole population.

In Iraq, a major problem is that security broke down so early. No group is willing to give up their weapons because no one believes that they can be protected by the government or the U.S. People who are not engaged in the civil war are dragged in when one ethnic group attack and kills relatives of these people.
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  Quote Kerimoglu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05-Jul-2007 at 15:34
Well, Iraq war has already been won since US reached its goals. Now the problem is Sunnis, Shias and Iran
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  Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05-Jul-2007 at 16:26
Originally posted by hugoestr

Well, under normal circumstances your definition of disarm is correct, but when you have a firearm culture, you do need to disarm the whole population.

In Iraq, a major problem is that security broke down so early. No group is willing to give up their weapons because no one believes that they can be protected by the government or the U.S. People who are not engaged in the civil war are dragged in when one ethnic group attack and kills relatives of these people.
The civil war is a result of the insurgeny. An armed populace makes it easier to recruit footsoldiers true, but if the US had disarmed the Iraqi army and the militias early on the populace would have had no people to rally around. As it was things got really bad in 2004, and the civil wat started last year as a direct result of the insurgency.
 
 
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  Quote hugoestr Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05-Jul-2007 at 23:12
The objective of the war is to snatch Iraqi oil out of the hands of the Iraqi people, so no, the objective hasn't been reached.

Another objective of the war was to transform Iraq into a satellite state of the US. This has definitely not happened.

As for military objectives, yes, those are constantly met.

One of the problem of the US in Iraq is that it has political objectives but it tries to achieve them through military means. There is only so much that you can do by killing people.

As I said before, Sparten, the U.S. disbanded the Iraqi Army and started it from scratch. You cannot blame the U.S. for failing to do this since it did it. For it to take weapons out of all potential recruits, it had to disarmed the whole nation, which you agreed that it wasn't possible.

Our greedy, mioptic leaders think that they can still get away with stealing the oil that belongs to the Iraqi people. That is part of their reluctance to leave. They are mistaken. The moment that that oil becomes the property of Exxon, that is the moment that the oil wells go up into flames, and the oil pipes will be destroyed throughout the country.

The U.S. has one good strategy left, and that is to leave.
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  Quote SearchAndDestroy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05-Jul-2007 at 23:25
The objective of the war is to snatch Iraqi oil out of the hands of the Iraqi people, so no, the objective hasn't been reached.
I don't think that was the reason. I think it was to assert the US's power in the region to better exploit it though. Which, in the end leads to the oil.
 
The US military, while it advances it's technology, also follows that philosophy you can't rely on technology alone. The Bush adminstration learned that the hard way, and went against what many of our military leaders were saying in that we needed alot more troops before the invasion. Cheney and Rumsfeld disagreed and probably screwed us over, atleast more then it could have been. The result of that has been the loss of quite a few of our top military leaders and a few more threatening to leave.
So no, technology won't win the war, atleast alone. It takes alot more then one thing to win anything.
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  Quote Justinian Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05-Jul-2007 at 23:44
The short answer is no.  I don't know whether this is sad or something else but when I was in 11th grade watching the gathering storm (usually watching CNN in my business class) and we invaded iraq I told family members and friends it would be another vietnam, we would sweep aside the regular forces with ease but our casualties would keep piling up from guerilla warfare.  I must say that for once I am disappointed that I was right.  Technology can only do so much, it won't help if the people whose country you are occupying are fighting you and each other, not to mention don't for the most part want you there at all.  The running joke here is that nixon was the greatest president to ever live in comparison with bush.
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  Quote Maharbbal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06-Jul-2007 at 03:25
I think one of the main paradox of guerrilla warfare is that to win the heart and mind as they say you have to prove you are on top of the situation, hence be on the winning slide. So to win, you have to win

Besides, Hugo stated that the main problem was that everybody had a weapon at home, but I think it is only a problem when it comes to recognize the bad guys. Most never had to use it and certainly would never use it for anything else than self defense. Because terrorists, militiamen and insurgents blend in the crowd it gives the impression the menace can come from anywhere and anyone but the fact is it doesn't (in other words anyone could be a target but anyone is not a target).

I found Spartan's remark very insightful. Indeed it seems that for the last four years or so the US are merely reacting to whatever happen on the ground and basically lost initiative.

But I'd disagree with him on one point. If you consider any example of urban warfare (from the Nazis struggle against the Dutch resistance to the fight against the IRA's bombing campaign in London) it has always been won by the strong side (German virtually wept out any form of resistance in the Netherlands) thanks to technological superiority allowing to detect the enemy early on. The German had goniometic system to find the radios of the resistance and the Brits developed the densest CCTV network in the world.

So in that sense, technology could help to give the US the initiative again. And hence win the war on terror. Besides, unmanned vehicles would remove from sight the most valuable target their adversaries can find: the US soldiers themselves. We are in a weird war indeed were the objective of one side is merely to make kill after kill till it becomes unbearable. You don't kill a soldier to reach an objective, the soldier is the ultimate objective you can find. So removing the soldiers from the danger is not only important humanely, it is capital strategically.

Well that was my two cents point.
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  Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06-Jul-2007 at 04:33
All thats very well sir, but again you seem to be missing the point I made namely that the US has an absence of strategy. The German and IRA analogy is misleading since the Germans did have a strategy and objective; to keep the occupied territories quiet and the way their technical superiority helped them to achieve that by a tactic of basically popping anyone who was or looked threatening.
 
It is the strategy that decides tactics which are to be used. Only when the US decides what its objectives are in Iraq will they achieve anyheadway and a discussion on the role of technology will be relevent.
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  Quote SearchAndDestroy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06-Jul-2007 at 11:51

I think one of the main paradox of guerrilla warfare is that to win the heart and mind as they say you have to prove you are on top of the situation, hence be on the winning slide. So to win, you have to win
Or have a enemy who forces to many restrictions on their pool of recruitment. Reported just the other day, the enemy has been doing the job for us. While alot of the Sunni's still don't like us, they aren't supporting Al Qaida like they used to due to them putting to much restrictions on them. Many are also tired of the violence, and you here in Al Qaida's new video that "We are all humans and as humans we make mistakes" yadda yadda and so on, then says they must solve their problems and return to the fight.

All thats very well sir, but again you seem to be missing the point I made namely that the US has an absence of strategy. The German and IRA analogy is misleading since the Germans did have a strategy and objective; to keep the occupied territories quiet and the way their technical superiority helped them to achieve that by a tactic of basically popping anyone who was or looked threatening.
We had a strategy, it's a myth we didn't. The problem was it was the worse strategy and one made for the BEST case scenario. I mean, absolute best case, Rumsfeld and Cheney honestly said we'd be going in a liberators and praised for it. Rumsfeld said on a morning News program that we had more then enough troops. We had bad government leadership that didn't listen to those who were in the career of doing this stuff.
And if your talking about the Germans in World War 2, they didn't bother trying to win hearts and minds, they were using fear as a tool to their best ability. Infact, in some towns they'd post the names of every citizen in order of execution. So if anything wrong happened, the people at the top would be the first to go and so on. Made people think twice before doing anything, because they would know the name of those they'd be responcible for.
I also heard that the KGB were pretty efficient in stopping terrorist. After they found out the terrorist's name, they'd go find their family and shoot them all in cold blood. It stopped the terrorist, thats for sure, but is something against what the US would do.
 
The US is trying to use a friendly approach by sending aid, building schools and hospitals and supplying them, which has been working, but when a country can't support it's own basic needs, like power and water, then it's a breeding ground for angry vengeful people. Added to the fact that they live in fear and have lost many friends and family, you can give them everything they need, but in those conditions, they're still going to have a huge chance to become radicalized.
It is the strategy that decides tactics which are to be used. Only when the US decides what its objectives are in Iraq will they achieve anyheadway and a discussion on the role of technology will be relevent.
They know the strategy, but you can't implement it when there are a number of things going against it. First they need the Iraqi army up to par itself, they need more troops to protect and attack, and they just don't have that til the Iraqi's are ready. They also need to put the basic needs back online so to make everyone alittle more content. There isn't a easy fix, their isn't a golden strategy that will suddenly stablize Iraq. A myriad of things have to be done before we can claim a success story, and it's takes multiple strategies on multiples levels, coupled with the Iraqi's themselves having the ability to defend them when we can't be there all the time.
There isn't a easy answer, and certantly not a simple one. Going guns ablazing or just trying to win over people won't win this war. There just isn't a single strategy, and there isn't a single one for the Military or a single one for the Diplomats.
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  Quote hugoestr Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06-Jul-2007 at 13:23
Maharbbal,

One of the ironies of CCTV is that you need a peaceful population to be able to run it successfully. The reality is that electronic equipment is easy to tamper with, and all what you need is scissors, a magnet, or, if everything else fails, a brick.

My point about having the population armed is the following: people who are not involved today may get involved tomorrow if they become the victims of violence; for example, relatives died in a mosque attack. Then the guns come out.

Remote controlled robots cannot substitute soldiers. Again, these could easily be tampered, and a sort of arms race could start to see who can waste the resources of the enemy faster: the insurgency with cheap roadside bombs or the U.S. with expensive technology.
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  Quote SearchAndDestroy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06-Jul-2007 at 13:37
Remote controlled robots cannot substitute soldiers. Again, these could easily be tampered, and a sort of arms race could start to see who can waste the resources of the enemy faster: the insurgency with cheap roadside bombs or the U.S. with expensive technology.
They can, and they do. It's saved more lives and offered missions to allow us to relocate our soldiers elsewhere. Infact, they've done wonders for us in combating roadside bombs. They are able to scope out a building without putting a soldier in harms way, and can do survailence more efficiently when guarding a area. And this is just the beginning, when SWORDS makes it's debut on the battlefield, the robots will be fighting back. The difference between them and the soldiers is that they can carry high powered weaponry fire full auto on a area and never have to worry about recoil throwing their aim off. On top of that, once one is alerted to a unidentfied person, the others in it's group can easily be alerted to exactly where this person is and respond and close in in no time. Don't underestimate technology Hugo, just understand that everything, and that includes ground troops, tanks, and anything else has limitations. The trick is using their strong points together, which the US does.
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