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Hezbollah's defeat of Israel uncovered

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  Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Hezbollah's defeat of Israel uncovered
    Posted: 05-Dec-2006 at 16:57
Hezbollah's actions were stupid, they took the bait - their only saving grace was their military prowess.

I think any external forces, when they deliberately target the infrastructure of a nation and kill innocent civilians will result in the rallying of the populace behind their only hope of defense; so if Israel retaliated in the same way as it did this time around then... Yes, I think the people would rally again behind the only perceived source of defense their country has.

This was also a tried and failed tactic by Saddam against Iran - his wanten destruction and targetting of civilians only strengthened their resolve rather than turn on their government.
    

Edited by Zagros - 05-Dec-2006 at 17:01
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  Quote mamikon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05-Dec-2006 at 17:50
Werent the Iranian civilian casualties in hundreds of thousands? in the Israel-Lebanon conflict a little more than 1000 Lebanese died. Didnt Saddam willingly target civilian objects?

Israel, with much more equipment could have inflicted far more civlian casualties if intended.

I do not believe Israelis targeted civilians with full knowledge that those targets lack Hezbollah fighters...
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  Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05-Dec-2006 at 18:02
That's your opinion and you're as well entitled to yours as I am to mine. Here are the facts and figures:

Tactics were the same. Inflict pain on the civilians to get at their polical leaders. And Saddam's campign of attrition stretched for 6 years, Israel's, 35 days.

Here's the math.

365 x 6 / 35 = 62.5 x 1200 (civilians killed by Israel, who knows how many maimed) = 75,000 civilian deaths had the campaign lasted for 6 years.

Take into account Iran's population then was 40m, Lebanon's now, is 4m. Multiply that 75k by 10 to take the population disaprity into account and put things into proportion: 10 x 75k = 750,000 civilians.

So you see Israel's aggression was on a much much higher scale, especially when you consider that Iran's civilian casualties were far less in proportion to military.

So to say that Israel showed restraint is a complete myth and a smokescreen for the IDF's incapacity.


    
    
    

Edited by Zagros - 05-Dec-2006 at 18:08
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  Quote King John Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09-Dec-2006 at 16:44
I'm no expert on Middle Eatern Politics nor am I an expert in Israeli-Lebanese relationships nor on military actions. However, there seems to be an overglossing of certain issues running through this thread.

First pertaining to the referal of the term "Arab" as denoting both Jews and other middle eastern populations. This term is completely wrong! Jews although a semetic people are not "Arab," this does not mean that there are no Arab Jews just that they are few in number. If we want to be truely correct we should refer to the parties involved by there nation of origin ie: Israeli, Lebanese, Palestinian, Jordanian etc. I have no problems with a person being a bigot but if we are going to be bigoted we should know the difference between the focuses of our bigotry (although this is contrary to the idea of bigotry).

The second issue that seems to be running through some of the posts here is that people on both sides like to focus only on "chest thumping" that is my side is right your side is wrong. Although this is the nature of debate this is counter productive. However, some people seem to be missing basic history of this region. For this I suggest reading a wonderfully well written book From Beirut to Jerusalem. Some also seem to miss the point that while the actions of Israel might not have been a proper "proportional response" they were none the less provoked not just by the kidnapping of two IDF soldiers but the murder of at least two more during that same raid. Some people would go so far as to call this an act of war. This was just the culmination of years of animosity between Hezbollah and Israel. This brings me to my final point.

Hezbollah through out the running thread is commonly referred to in terms of endearment. This should not be the case any organization that rejoices at the death of an outsider should not be referred to in such terms. The fact remains that Hezbollah is an organization founded on the destruction of Israel and other westernly alighned governments. I read in one of the posts that they (Hezbollah) were defenders (or something to that nature the exact phrase escapes my mind for which I appologize) of Lebanese soil against foreign occupation. This is simply a less than true statement what was Hezbollah's stance on the recently ended Syrian occupation of Lebanon? They embraced it as a matter of fact they are still part of the pro-Syrian faction of Lebanese politics.

I would like to point out that the verdict is still out on this conflict. Neither side was able to claim an immidiate victory, but the long term effects have yet to be seen, and it is there that the winner will be made apparent.

I would like to appologize for any misspelled words or poorly chosen phrases. If some people feel that I have attacked them that was not my intent and I would like to appologize, I simply wanted to address issues that I encountered. Again I would like to appologize for misspelled words, poorly chosen phrases, and bad grammar.
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  Quote Leonidas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09-Dec-2006 at 18:28
isreal holds over 2000 lebanese without charge since their occupation. It has mined southern lebanon and refuses to hand over the maps so they can destroy these mines even though they have no military use. Start there King John and all of a sudden the context of Hezbollah actions make more sense. Please show me where hezbollah have actaully made it their aim to destroy Isreal or the west?

 I agree somewhat that they are puppets to foriegners but everyone is a puppet in lebanon to one side or the other, yet they are all lebanese. I want both syria and isreal out of that country and taking sh*t from either is bad for lebanon, while i hope the anti-syrians stay in power i would also want the hezbi soldiers to keep isreal in check.

Edited by Leonidas - 09-Dec-2006 at 18:31
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  Quote King John Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10-Dec-2006 at 09:33
Now, now I never said they wanted to destroy the west. What I said was they wanted to "destroy westernly aligned governments." However, I probably should have included a qualifying statement with a statement that said something to the effect of: "in surrounding nations and their own, hoping to establish an Islamic regime in its place." Unfortunately I can not off the top of my head come up with an instance where Hezbollah has stated its aim as being to destroy Israel. However, this does not mean that it is not a true statement. Show me where they expressly state that it's not their aim.

In terms of understanding Israel's context for their actions. Why don't we look at the numerous invasions of Israel by their neighbors in 1948, 1967, and the 1970's. So all of a sudden Israel's context becomes more apparent.
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  Quote King John Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10-Dec-2006 at 10:40
After some searching I have found one instance of Hezbollah's statement of it's aim I will provide the link for you.

http://www.zionism-israel.com/hdoc/Hezbollah_Charter.htm

this is not an unbiased site so I will provide at least one more link for you.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hizbullah#Position_on_Israel


    I could not find a translation of the Open Letter published in Bierut 1985 that actually stated Hezbollah's goals. So I just provided the two above links

Edited by King John - 10-Dec-2006 at 10:55
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  Quote Leonidas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11-Dec-2006 at 01:46
in 1985? things have changed. There are statements i can find in those wiki sources that contradict that hard line. Different audiances require different language, our politicians do it also, as far as i can see they wont accept isreal taking over all of jerusalem which is not acceptable to most arabs anyway.

Nasrallah, Q and A and his ideas for peace (washington post in 2000)

"If Israel pulls out, he promises that Hezbollah will end its "security" activities there. But he refuses to say whether Hezbollah, whose history includes bombings and the taking of hostages, will halt all activities against Israel, its archenemy.......

From the perspective of Hezbollah, what are the major issues to be addressed during any future Lebanon-Israel peace negotiations?

Lebanon should first recover sovereignty over all its territories, without neglecting any. Second, all Lebanese prisoners in Israeli jails should be released. . . . Third, Lebanon has the right to ask for compensation for all the damages and harm which have resulted from Israeli aggressions against Lebanon during the past decades. Furthermore, Lebanon has the right to ask for punishment of those Israeli officials who should be considered war criminals. . . .

The next issue, which is no less important than the previous ones . . . is the issue of the Palestinian refugees. Lebanon cannot enter into any settlement with anybody based on the granting of Lebanese nationality to the 300,000 or 400,000 Palestinians who live on Lebanese territory. There is no way that such a thing can happen. . . . Any settlement that does not take into consideration the issue of the Palestinian refugees endangers the process and will prove to be a time bomb which can explode at any time."

link

sounds unreasonable?

Hersch's converstion with Nasrallah in 2003

"Nasrallah emphasized that he was not seeking a confrontation with the United States. Because of Hezbollahs ability to disrupt a deal between the Israelis and Palestinians, I asked Nasrallah about his view of the renewed talks. He hesitated a moment and declared, At the end, this is primarily a Palestinian matter. I, like any other person, may consider what is happening to be right or wrong. . . . I may have a different assessment, but at the end of the road no one can go to war on behalf of the Palestinians, even if that one is not in agreement with what the Palestinians agreed on. Of course, it would bother us that Jerusalem goes to Israel.

I asked, But if there was a deal?

Let it happen, he answered. I would not say O.K. I would say nothing. "

Link

CNN transcripts (2003)

"MACVICAR: You know that one of the key questions here in the region that many want to know the answer to is how will Hezbollah act if there is a war? Would Hezbollah, for example, attack Israel if there is a war?

NASRALLAH: Our policy is clear, we are fighting in an area that is still under occupation in Lebanon. And beyond that area, we are on the defensive. What is being talked about now is the probability of the Sharon government launching an attack against Lebanon to eliminate the resistance of Hezbollah by using the American war against Iraq. But, of course, in this case, we will certainly fight with all our strength.....

MACVICAR: Anderson, that was the key message of Sheikh Nasrallah -- that Hezbollah is now not looking for a fight. He came as close as he possibly could of saying that they were not interested now in attacking Israel. Of course, saying that if, in fact, Lebanon was attacked they would reserve the right to respond. A very different tone, as I said before, in this interview than in some of the other public statements that we've heard from Sheikh Nasrallah, which in many ways may have been meant for domestic consumption in Lebanon -- Anderson."
link

this is from the leader himself, not a foot soldier or an isreali adaption.




Edited by Leonidas - 11-Dec-2006 at 02:00
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  Quote Leonidas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11-Dec-2006 at 02:24
Originally posted by King John

In terms of understanding Israel's context for their actions. Why don't we look at the numerous invasions of Israel by their neighbors in 1948, 1967, and the 1970's. So all of a sudden Israel's context becomes more apparent.
I understand their history makes them think fighting (since they have won up until this year) is the best way to solve disputes.

 Hezbollah cant be accused of agression anymore than isreal can, if we look at it within the context of Isreal and/in lebanon

This whole 'arabs have always attacked them' victim line doesnt hold in this particular relationship, especially since hezbollah began because of isreal occupation and had nothing to do with the prevoius hostility. If i understand it right, the palistinians (esp the PLO) were no freinds to the locals, well before isreal came in and p*ssed everone else of.



Edited by Leonidas - 11-Dec-2006 at 02:25
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  Quote Travis Congleton Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11-Dec-2006 at 07:06
Originally posted by King John

I'm no expert on Middle Eatern Politics nor am I an expert in Israeli-Lebanese relationships nor on military actions. However, there seems to be an overglossing of certain issues running through this thread.

First pertaining to the referal of the term "Arab" as denoting both Jews and other middle eastern populations. This term is completely wrong! Jews although a semetic people are not "Arab," this does not mean that there are no Arab Jews just that they are few in number. If we want to be truely correct we should refer to the parties involved by there nation of origin ie: Israeli, Lebanese, Palestinian, Jordanian etc. I have no problems with a person being a bigot but if we are going to be bigoted we should know the difference between the focuses of our bigotry (although this is contrary to the idea of bigotry).

The second issue that seems to be running through some of the posts here is that people on both sides like to focus only on "chest thumping" that is my side is right your side is wrong. Although this is the nature of debate this is counter productive. However, some people seem to be missing basic history of this region. For this I suggest reading a wonderfully well written book From Beirut to Jerusalem. Some also seem to miss the point that while the actions of Israel might not have been a proper "proportional response" they were none the less provoked not just by the kidnapping of two IDF soldiers but the murder of at least two more during that same raid. Some people would go so far as to call this an act of war. This was just the culmination of years of animosity between Hezbollah and Israel. This brings me to my final point.

Hezbollah through out the running thread is commonly referred to in terms of endearment. This should not be the case any organization that rejoices at the death of an outsider should not be referred to in such terms. The fact remains that Hezbollah is an organization founded on the destruction of Israel and other westernly alighned governments. I read in one of the posts that they (Hezbollah) were defenders (or something to that nature the exact phrase escapes my mind for which I appologize) of Lebanese soil against foreign occupation. This is simply a less than true statement what was Hezbollah's stance on the recently ended Syrian occupation of Lebanon? They embraced it as a matter of fact they are still part of the pro-Syrian faction of Lebanese politics.

I would like to point out that the verdict is still out on this conflict. Neither side was able to claim an immidiate victory, but the long term effects have yet to be seen, and it is there that the winner will be made apparent.

I would like to appologize for any misspelled words or poorly chosen phrases. If some people feel that I have attacked them that was not my intent and I would like to appologize, I simply wanted to address issues that I encountered. Again I would like to appologize for misspelled words, poorly chosen phrases, and bad grammar.


POST OF THE MONTH
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  Quote King John Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11-Dec-2006 at 13:56
How are we defining "victory" here? Because there is a difference between an immediate victory and a long term victory. Hezbollah can be accused of agression especially in this instance. The major problem with this thread is that it quickly descends into racist rants. These rants will never change anybody's mind and will only lead to more obstinant counter-rants. Neither are good for the course of debate, we should be discussing issues like this with objectivity. Unfortunately, this will not happen. Keep in mind I am not calling anyone in particular a racist just that I am noting that some comments my own included can be seen by some to be biased in certain ways if not a tad bit racist. My appologies again if I have offended anybody, not my intent.
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  Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11-Dec-2006 at 14:05
Victory from a purely military perspective relative only to this past conflict. All divergences into politics must be avoided.
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  Quote Leonidas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12-Dec-2006 at 04:45
apologies for the divergencesEmbarrassed

King John, when the war started, most people (media) said that aslong as hezbollah remian intact they would of won. Israel made that very gamble when it launched its massive campaign. Isreal initially announced its aim to wipe them out, it then changed this to weakening them by so much, and then to have them out of the southern border. So far none of these aims (even downgraded) have been realised.

Despite their (unknown) casualties a few thousand geurrilla's were still fighting strong and with the same level of discplined command-control they had before the war. That is a victory by any measure especially when (they admit) they were taken by suprise and had to fight one of the most powerful regional players for over a month.

To add to this there have been reports of isreal opening up to talks about prisoner exchange, which is what the hezbollah wanted in the first place,

BTW your far from offensive.



Edited by Leonidas - 12-Dec-2006 at 04:48
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  Quote Mameluke Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24-Dec-2006 at 19:28
Since this is a military history thread, I wonder why political and moral issues are being discussed here.
          One thing we all have to bear in mind - any time a military force sets out on a mission and fails to accomplish that mission - it has to be considered a defeat - technically speaking. If the IDF's mission was to destroy Hezbollah's infrastructure then it certainly has failed in its mission, and therefore this is technically a defeat.
           Let's look at a parallel situation - America's involvement in Vietnam was to prevent the South Vietnamese from succumbing to Communism in general and to North Vietnamese aggression in paricular. It did not succeed in its mission and therefore America's experience in Vietnam must be considered a defeat, no matter what the mitigating circumstances.
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  Quote souljahofgod Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26-Dec-2006 at 17:32
in my opinion, nobody won. both 'sides' suffered heavy losses.
1. Although hezbollah repelled isreali attacks with great ferocity, they probably wouldnt have kept up that morale on the long term basis.

2. isreal could not reach the desired terms it wished to deal to hezbollah, even when they were downgraded, so it turned attention to Lebanon itself had dealt heavy blows on the long and short term.
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  Quote konstantinius Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03-Jan-2007 at 07:45
Certain parts strike me as being extremist on the part of Hezbollah. I higlight them below:


Originally posted by Leonidas

in 1985? things have changed. There are statements i can find in those wiki sources that contradict that hard line. Different audiances require different language, our politicians do it also, as far as i can see they wont accept isreal taking over all of jerusalem which is not acceptable to most arabs anyway.

Nasrallah, Q and A and his ideas for peace (washington post in 2000)

"If Israel pulls out, he promises that Hezbollah will end its "security" activities there. But he refuses to say whether Hezbollah, whose history includes bombings and the taking of hostages, will halt all activities against Israel, its archenemy.......

From the perspective of Hezbollah, what are the major issues to be addressed during any future Lebanon-Israel peace negotiations?

Lebanon should first recover sovereignty over all its territories, without neglecting any. Second, all Lebanese prisoners in Israeli jails should be released. . . . Third, Lebanon has the right to ask for compensation for all the damages and harm which have resulted from Israeli aggressions against Lebanon during the past decades. Furthermore, Lebanon has the right to ask for punishment of those Israeli officials who should be considered war criminals. . . .

Israel will never go for this last one. Hezbollah is pushing it too far here.


The next issue, which is no less important than the previous ones . . . is the issue of the Palestinian refugees. Lebanon cannot enter into any settlement with anybody based on the granting of Lebanese nationality to the 300,000 or 400,000 Palestinians who live on Lebanese territory. There is no way that such a thing can happen. . . . Any settlement that does not take into consideration the issue of the Palestinian refugees endangers the process and will prove to be a time bomb which can explode at any time."

This is debatable too. It ties any solution to the Palestinian question with the situation in Lebanon effectively complicating both. Perhaps the Palestinians can remain in Lebanon untill conditions are better in the West Bank/Gaza. But to seek relocation of 400,000 Palestinians as part of a settlement with Lebanon will not be accepted by Israel.

link

sounds unreasonable?

Hersch's converstion with Nasrallah in 2003

"Nasrallah emphasized that he was not seeking a confrontation with the United States. Because of Hezbollahs ability to disrupt a deal between the Israelis and Palestinians, I asked Nasrallah about his view of the renewed talks. He hesitated a moment and declared, At the end, this is primarily a Palestinian matter. I, like any other person, may consider what is happening to be right or wrong. . . . I may have a different assessment, but at the end of the road no one can go to war on behalf of the Palestinians, even if that one is not in agreement with what the Palestinians agreed on. Of course, it would bother us that Jerusalem goes to Israel.


I asked, But if there was a deal?

Let it happen, he answered. I would not say O.K. I would say nothing. "

Link

CNN transcripts (2003)

"MACVICAR: You know that one of the key questions here in the region that many want to know the answer to is how will Hezbollah act if there is a war? Would Hezbollah, for example, attack Israel if there is a war?

NASRALLAH: Our policy is clear, we are fighting in an area that is still under occupation in Lebanon. And beyond that area, we are on the defensive. What is being talked about now is the probability of the Sharon government launching an attack against Lebanon to eliminate the resistance of Hezbollah by using the American war against Iraq. But, of course, in this case, we will certainly fight with all our strength.....

But they launched missiles into Israeli cities and kidnapped israeli soldiers prior to israel attacking. These are hostile acts.


MACVICAR: Anderson, that was the key message of Sheikh Nasrallah -- that Hezbollah is now not looking for a fight. He came as close as he possibly could of saying that they were not interested now in attacking Israel. Of course, saying that if, in fact, Lebanon was attacked they would reserve the right to respond. A very different tone, as I said before, in this interview than in some of the other public statements that we've heard from Sheikh Nasrallah, which in many ways may have been meant for domestic consumption in Lebanon -- Anderson."
link

this is from the leader himself, not a foot soldier or an isreali adaption.




Edited by konstantinius - 03-Jan-2007 at 21:22
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  Quote TheDiplomat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17-Jan-2007 at 08:37
And Israeli chief of military staff just resigned..It is argued that this is closely related with ''failure'' in Lebanon.
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  Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19-Jan-2007 at 03:29
Personally I think it's the Prime Minister who should be resigning after that one.
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  Quote Leonidas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25-Feb-2007 at 03:09
Found this article on one aspect of the conflict the anti tank warfare

Hezbollah anti-amour
Tactics and weapons

Assessment of the Second Lebanon War By Col. David Eshel


Realizing the capabilities of the Merkava 4 tank, Hezbollah allocated their most advanced weaponry to combat this advanced tank, engaging these tanks exclusively with the heavier, more capable missiles such as 9M133 AT-14 Kornet, 9M131 Metis M and RPG-29.

RPG-29 and 9M113 Konkurs (AT-5) were employed mostly against Merkava 3 and 2 while non-tandem weapons, such as Tow, Fagot and improved RPG 7Vs were left to engage other armored vehicles such as AIFV. The least used were AT-3 Sagger and, to a limited extent, the TOW as well as non tandem RPGs, were considered obsolete against tanks, but proved quite lethal against troops seeking cover in buildings.

Overall, almost 90% of the tanks hit were by tandem warheads. In general, Hezbollah militants prioritized Merkava Mk 4 over Merkava Mk 2 and 3, and in general, targeted tanks over AIFV. At the beginning of the 2006 Israel-Lebanon conflict, the main Israeli concern was a report that Hezbollah possessed Russian Kornet antitank missiles. However, it also saw the RPG-29 Vampir with a tandem HEAT that had stolen the show. There were even rumors that Hezbollah had received the notorious TBG-29V thermobaric rounds, but these could not be confirmed in action.

Hezbollah deployed their tank-killer teams in a thin but effective defensive scheme, protecting the villages where the organization's Shiite members reside; villages where their short range rockets were positioned and where command infrastructure and logistics support was set up. An estimated 500 to 600 members of their roughly 4,000-strong Hezbollah fighting strength in South Lebanon were divided into tank-killer teams of 5 or 6, each armed with 5-8 anti-tank missiles, with further supplies stored in small fortified well camouflaged bunkers and fortified basements, built to withstand Israeli air attacks.

Due to mountainous area, engagements were encountered at ranges below 3000 meters. Hezbollah tank-killer teams would lay in wait in camouflaged bunkers or houses, having planted large IEDs on known approach routes. Once an Israeli tank would detonate one of these, Hezbollah would start lobbing mortar shells onto the scene to prevent rescue teams rushing forward, also firing at outflanking Merkava tanks by targeting the more vulnerable rear zone with RPGs. In general, Hezbollah demonstrated rather slow regrouping and response rate, since their mobility and command links were severely restricted by the IDF dominating the open areas. However, even this slow pace was fast enough to match the slow and indecisive movements of the Israelis forces.

The night vision equipment used by Hezbollah was not as advanced as the IDF's. They possess mainly individual night vision equipment and some night observation systems, but generally lacked night capabilities for their anti-tank weapons. Benefiting from its superior night combat capability, the IDF conducted most movements at night, minimizing exposure of forces during day time.

link



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  Quote Hellios Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25-Feb-2007 at 20:35
Good find, Leonidas.
 
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