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Lebanonese Military..can they do the job?
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Centrix Vigilis View Drop Down
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Posts: 7392 		  Quote Centrix Vigilis Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Lebanonese Military..can they do the job?
    Posted: 20-Aug-2006 at 20:35
 this is not an attempt to circumvent the current/world affairs subforum......but a strat and tac query.i e. is the Lebanese military truly capable of signifcantly impacting on the current state of affairs on it's southern border and that with Syria? Or is this just a game of diplomatic time buying?
 
It takes more then just equipment it takes training/willpower and commitment/motivation...any number of sites will give you good data on the Lebanese Ob....but are they really emotionaly/psychogicaly/moraly ready to step up  (all important strat questions in modern warfare) or will the combination of the proposed UN force supposedly in collaboration be just as important?  ineffective?
 
If so how so?
 
What should be the rules of engagement?
 
and it appears there's already an unwillingness to seek disarming of the hezbollah terroist group.  Your thoughts please?
 
here's some links dealing with the issues:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Edited by Centrix Vigilis - 20-Aug-2006 at 21:49
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Posts: 8792 		  Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21-Aug-2006 at 18:08
As long as Hezbollah let them.
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Posts: 7392 		  Quote Centrix Vigilis Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21-Aug-2006 at 18:35
Originally posted by Zagros

As long as Hezbollah let them.
 
Well ...short and to the point....and I agree this is of course possibly the crux of the issue.
 
But perhaps... being on the ground you might comment on the concern being raised by many..given the torn loyalties among her citizens...do you believe the psychological and morale factors of the Army to be sufficiently high to act as the necessary buffer force and comply with the UN resolution or  is there still cause for question/concern.
 
thanks so much for your feed back.
 
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Posts: 1775 		  Quote ok ge Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21-Aug-2006 at 18:57
Originally posted by Centrix Vigilis

do you believe the psychological and morale factors of the Army to be sufficiently high to act as the necessary buffer force and comply with the UN resolution or  is there still cause for question/concern.
 
Honestly, I have no doubt Hezbollah can respect the truce or the cease fire hold on attacking Israel. However, Israel has already broke the truce twice. Does it matter anymore if Hezbollah respect the truce and allow the Lebanese military to operate on the borders?


Edited by ok ge - 21-Aug-2006 at 18:58
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Posts: 7392 		  Quote Centrix Vigilis Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21-Aug-2006 at 19:25
Originally posted by ok ge

Originally posted by Centrix Vigilis

do you believe the psychological and morale factors of the Army to be sufficiently high to act as the necessary buffer force and comply with the UN resolution or  is there still cause for question/concern.
 
Honestly, I have no doubt Hezbollah can respect the truce or the cease fire hold on attacking Israel. However, Israel has already broke the truce twice. Does it matter anymore if Hezbollah respect the truce and allow the Lebanese military to operate on the borders?
 
================================================
 
first thanks very much for the feed back...and the answer to your question is indeed a tough one....everybody has got an opinion and as I said up top i dont want to hijack a current events thread thing...so i approached it from the angle I'm at....
 
i feel confident in a force of arms type role  soley..the Army can also do the job...suprised that yank could admit it?  Big smile
 
but the psych question and morale issues  (and as I pointed out these are critical in all warfare to include modern)  are still out there and the appreciation for hezbollah by certain aspects of the Lebanonese is well known...the IDF says they were interdicting arms shipments from Syria...Hezbollah of course denies...and so on it goes...in other wards if the LA is not willing from a psych/conflict of interest/quasi supportive issue vice Hezbollah...to truly be effective...  to include disarmanent and tougher interdiction of arms vice Syria...then what use the deployment....
 
same questions apply to an EU or muti-Un force....
 
but again at least we are talking reasonably about it and by golly I sure wish and hope they can too...
 
many thanks again for your feed back.
 
best
 
CV
"Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence"

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Posts: 1775 		  Quote ok ge Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22-Aug-2006 at 12:36
Originally posted by Centrix Vigilis

the IDF says they were interdicting arms shipments from Syria...Hezbollah of course denies...and so on it goes
 
IDF has to use this excuse no doubt. Didn't they bomb trucks of red crescents before and a UAE shipments of food and medicine because they suspeted them delivering weapons?  A slight doubt is enough for the IDF to bomb any target regardless. Lack of intelligence is not an excuse as far as I know.
 
Another point that I would like to rise is that Olmert is facing internal pressure to open an investigation on what he calls a "victory" but everybody else would tend to name it a failure. Olmert has to show that Israel has not given up to Hezbollah and it is a temporary truce and Israel compaign has not ended and it is early to judge the results.
 
Aside from internal pressure inside Israel, the fact still stands that a truce means both parties have to respect it. The respect of the truce means holding all military actions. Israel has done several violations which the U.N has pointed out. These are the bombing of uninhabitant areas of Baalbek region (nothing was hit but the ground to what is looked like a show of strength) and the failed commandos landing in the same area which resulted in an Israeli officer and two soldiers' death.
 
We shall not forget the fact that Israel had no pressure to establish the truce (in fact more support to continue the campaign) and Israel had ignored all calls for cease-fire before. If Israel does not wish to respect the truce because Hezbollah is regarded by her as a terrorist organization, they should have not agreed on UN resolution from the begining.
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Posts: 2120 		  Quote Maharbbal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22-Aug-2006 at 14:13
One of the main problem is: to what extend Hezb's sympathizer control the army?
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Posts: 7392 		  Quote Centrix Vigilis Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23-Aug-2006 at 12:31
very interesting thoughts and analysis...thanks again for your feedback
Smile 
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Edited by Centrix Vigilis - 23-Aug-2006 at 12:31
"Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence"

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Posts: 200 		  Quote Travis Congleton Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28-Aug-2006 at 13:56
Zagros: " As long as Hezbollah let them."
====================================
Zagros is right.  'If' Hezbollah will.  And more than likely, they will.  Hezbollah didn't win this fight, but they certainly didn't lose.  As if they were a kid fought with a neighborhood bully and came out of it with a black eye.

All I can say now is that Hezbollah has won the 'Popularity' contest.

If Hezbollah could stand toe to toe against Israel, then Lebanese troops would be a pushover.  But again, that isn't the fight they want.  The Lebanese troops will control southern Lebanon because Hezbollah will allow them to do so.
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Posts: 568 		  Quote Gundamor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28-Aug-2006 at 14:30
The UN force is the most important factor. Though I dont see it having much of a job other then just being there. The rules of engagement I dont think changed much from the original UNIFIL ones which means its just there to "observe". Lebanons army holds no water as it probably even supports Hezbollah.

Hezbollah I think acomplished more then their initial goals. They stood up to the IDF well and every day Hassan Nasrallah seems to say the right thing to his people while the Israeli government shoves its foot in its mouth. We could see more IDF strikes out of spite before the full UN force gets situated.
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Centrix Vigilis View Drop Down
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Posts: 7392 		  Quote Centrix Vigilis Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28-Aug-2006 at 15:42
The Hezbollah connection is in deed in many senses the crux of the issue. but that then begs the issue of the value of the Lebanese army acting independently of and as a represenitive of the  current government...because the governement imo ...is either Hezbollah or it's not...given the caveat of course that hezbollah has membership in it.
 
And given the fact that the Israeli's view Hezbollah as a terrorist organistion..then there can be no peace. ..and the original question is moot.
 
thanks so much for your feedback.
 
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CV
"Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence"

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Pilger's law: 'If it's been officially denied, then it's probably true'

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Posts: 294 		  Quote Maljkovic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03-Sep-2006 at 15:22
No, they certainly cannot! The Lebanese armed forces is a social institution, and not an army. It's soldier recieve wages, not training, weapons, ammo and other little things like that. Besides, if their ethnic composition matches that of the general population, about 30% of the soldier are shiiai and therefore pro-Hezbollah.

Nope, it'll have to be done by the UN or not get done at all. And we all know what that means
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Posts: 132 		  Quote Renegade Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10-Sep-2006 at 17:11
I agree, the Lebanese army are not able to stabilioze their southern region. It must be done by a UN army.
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