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Hezbollah - a new form of guerilla warfar

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Al Jassas View Drop Down
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  Quote Al Jassas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Hezbollah - a new form of guerilla warfar
    Posted: 14-May-2008 at 20:54
They did exactly that after 82 and failed miserably. Israel is dreaming of ever getting any support from Arabs whatever was their religion or sect. During their occupation of southern Lebanon their main support came from the shias yet they decided to bet on the more "western oriented" christians, what happened was that Christians were the bane of their ocupation, they were the most valueable informants for the hizb, the organised a powerful underground system of organisation and when the Israeli left the celebrated except those who served with the Israeli army who fled with them.
 
One of the main reasons why Israeli can't do such a big operation beside expected high losses is economics. Israel has very limited resources and a vulnerable and currently economy. Israel cannot afford to go into major military engagements, unless appropriated by the US, in the current time.
 
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  Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14-May-2008 at 21:21
Exactly Al-Jassas, they sailed very close to the wind with the ordnance stockpile they had in 2006 when the US desperately rushed munitions to them.  They have no economic or industrial depth. Something to be expected given Israel's puny land mass and otherwise limited resources such as capital and man power.
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  Quote Sikander Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16-May-2008 at 17:37
But the same can be said of Hezbollah, who is supported by Syria and Iran. And according to intel report, Iran may even have send some Guards's experts to help Hezb with more sofisticated equipment such as SS missiles.
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  Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16-May-2008 at 17:39
Hezbollah isn't a nation and Hezbollah hasn't invaded, nor does it intend to invade Israel and negating any such heavy economic relativity.
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  Quote Sikander Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17-May-2008 at 11:31
The definition of Nation is not the same as State. State is related to power+land, while Nation is related to people (ethnically speaking)+power+a certain land (the land of the forefathers, the Promissed Land, whatever). So, if the Lebanese Xiites consider that land as their own, and if Hezbollah can rule that part of the country as a "Xiite country", than Hezbollah is a nation.
 
Nevertheless Hezbollah possesses all the elements of State power:
1 - an army (wich is far more powerfull than the official lebanese army);
2 - a diplomacy of its own with foreign powers;
3 - media facilities (whose atempted closure trigered the latest events in Lebanon) which equals to more power;
4 - economic means to bolster its activities. They don't have to produce, like Israel, they receive instead.
 
So, that's the problem I referred to in the first place: how to deal with a quasi-State entity such as Hezbollah which, even if it doesn't intend to invade Israel, it still carries attacks beyond the borders, receives support by foreign powers and is, in fact, more powerfull than the Lebanese State itself?
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  Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17-May-2008 at 12:06
Don't get all semantic , I meant state and you know it.  Hezbollah's "army" numbers at about 3000 regulars. 

How do you deal with it?

You kill all Lebanese Shiites or you negotiate with it.

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  Quote Sikander Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23-May-2008 at 17:22

Well, that would be an option! Wink

It is hard to analyse the current situation, though.

Syria is out of the territory but still holds some leverage, and the same goes for Iran; Hezbollah, though with nimble numbers, is far better armed and trained that the Lebanese Army and yesterday's agreement seems to confirm just that as Hezbollah gained the upper hand in terms of political affairs in Lebanon; 
but on the other hand Hezbollah took a beat in the 2006 war and is no longer in control of the South or, at least, doesn't have a free move in that part of the territory, at least that I know of, so part of it's capacity to gain political leverage as "resistants" will be lost in due course. 


Edited by Sikander - 23-May-2008 at 17:25
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