Current Affairs: An independent Montenegro?

an independent MONTENEGRO?

Three years have passed since Europe placed a moratorium on Montenegrin independence and this February the republic, a part of Serbia and Montenegro, will be legally allowed to hold a referendum for independence from Serbia.

Polls show roughly 70 per cent of Montenegrins support independence - however, there are vast regional differences. Montenegrins who live and work in Serbia proper are more than 80 per cent opposed to independence, as are Bosniak residents of Sandzak - a region which would be split in half between Montenegro and Serbia should independence be declared. Even these opinions are mixed. When asked if the whole of the Sandzak would be allowed to join Montenegro, more than 90 per cent of Bosniaks supported independence.

However, nowhere is the desire for independence stronger than in Podgorica, the Montenegrin capital. Polls conducted within the city have routinely showed a near 100 per cent support for independence.

Podgorica, Montenegro

The desire for independence is based largely in the abstract feeling that Montenegro is held back from greater inclusion within Europe and European organizations due to what they consider the nationalist and stubborn nature of polices in Belgrade, the Serbian capital.

Montenegrins also insist their tourism industry and coastal trade infrastructure are keeping Serbia and Montenegro afloat, with most of the benefits being exploited outside of Montenegro.

For their part, Serbs insist - and with significant economic evidence - that Serbia is in fact keeping Montenegro afloat. They feel that without Serbian patrimony, Montenegro would be as poor and backwards as they perceive Kosovo to be.

Infused within these feelings is a strong sense of nationalism. Montenegrins often view Serbs as their dirty, Ottoman-tainted cousins. Serbs often view Montenegrins as rural, illiterate peasants.

These feelings change by region.

In Kotor, and along the Montenegrin coast, the desire for independence from Serbia and Montenegro is quite strong - however, a vast majority of residents consider themselves to be ethnically Serb and do not support the idea of an independent, Montegrin nationality.

Kotor, Montenegro

In Montenegro's portion of the Sandzak, the local Bosniak population is also divided. A majority of Muslims in this region consider themselves to be ethnically Bosniak with the remainder divided between the Serb and 'Montenegrin' ethnicities, clearly favoring Serb.

Because the Sandzak has enjoyed an unofficial yet still evident level of autonomy under the banner of Serbia and Montenegro, residents do not want to lose their self-determination rights and be placed under authority of either Belgrade or Podgorica. For them, maintaining the Sandzak as a single unit is the most important basis for moving forward.

Bosnia and Herzegovina has helped stoke these feelings, which those Bosniaks in the region who support independence term a "false dilemma".

Nowhere is the unconditional desire for Montenegrin independence higher among Bosniaks than in Plav-Gusinje, the regional capital of the Montenegrin portion of the Sandzak. Residents of this city are the most supportive of Montenegrin independence in the whole of the Sandzak.

Plav-Gusinje, Montenegro

In contrast, Bosniaks living in Zabljak and Berane are largely opposed to Montenegrin independence. In Zabljak, more supported the idea of uniting the Montenegrin Sandzak with Serbia than supported uniting the Serbian Sandzak with Montenegro.

Zabljak, Montenegro

Berane, Montenegro

If Montenegro declares its independence from Serbia and Montenegro, there will be vast regions of the country where this declaration is not supported. There will be isolated regions where it is not accepted.

Police have already confiscated weapons caches in the city of Berane. They have also uncovered a plot to target polling stations in Budva, on the Montenegrin coast.

If independence is not put to the vote, a vast majority of Montenegrins will be dissatisfied and it could lead to destabilising protests across the republic, with additional protests - either for or against - spreading into Serbia itself.

There is no danger that Serbia and Montenegro will go to war against each other for independence, as they are both predominantly Orthodox Christian countries. However, since their border - on both sides - is populated largely by Muslim Bosniaks, there may be needlessly brutal attempts to strengthen border security or possibly even lay claim to stretches of land on the other side.

Knowing all this, do you support an independent Montenegro?

I do. I believe an independent Montenegro will be capable of providing its citizens with more economic opportunities and a higher standard of living. I believe an independent Montenegro will not neglect the Bosniak-populated north in an attempt to buy off continued loyalty.

Economic progress in the Montenegrin Sandzak will certainly positively influence the Serbian Sandzak since both regions are, in essence, one region with an intensely "ours first" mentality when it comes to business and development.

Althought Serbia will then be a landlocked country, it will maintain significant ties with Montenegro simply because no self-respecting Montenegrin businessman would want to switch their business to neighboring Bosnia and Herzegovina or Albania.

Because Montenegrins are largely Eastern Orthodox, Serbian nationalists will not be able to paint them as foreign squatters in Serbian public opinion and it will be generally accepted that the Montenegrins are those who have rights to the land, the descendants of those who have lived there for centuries, and their declaration of independence will be respected.

So what do you think?

Silence descends on Montenegro ahead of independence vote