Much of this on who you would be asking and when. Things in politics change in regard to actions happening. I would say no especially in the beginning because there were states that did not leave the Union but still labelled as slave states. In Dec. 1860 South Carolina succeeded just after Lincoln’s election and Mississippi, Florida, Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana and Texas in total of 2 months.

At the time Ft. Sumter was attacked April 12, 1861, the Confederacy would have seen the fort as a base in foreign territory. The Federal troops would not leave so the attack began. Washington would see it as a rebellion and would build their armies to counter the rebels. The Union did not recognize the Confederacy as a nation so the war at this part would be on whether or not state governments had the right to decide to leave the Union. Lincoln’s decision to enlist 75k soldiers and invade a foreign, yet brother, nation just made the situation worse as Virginia, Arkansas, Tennessee and North Carolina join the Confederacy adding strength and fervor for the Southern cause.

As the war continued most of the tactics the South used in battles were defensive battles on Southern soil near the northern border. Using this, news of battle aftermaths would reach Richmond and the scout network could be faster as well as showing the North that the Confederacy are up for a hard fight. Southern victories such as first and second Manassas, Fredericksburg, Chancellorsville and others made Lincoln’s war very unpopular amongst the civilians as well as breaking morale of the soldiers themselves.

After Chancellorsville, The Army of Northern Virginia make a daring move to invade the North looking for a good place to attack the Army of the Potomac (North). This is what leads to Gettysburg. The losses on both sides were harsh but the South lost massively and had to return. Something as horrible as Gettysburg made the war look like a bloodbath. Lincoln needed something else in his politics to get the people more interested in his cause- an idea of freedom for slaves. Lincoln being a third-party candidate winner in his election brought anti-slavery ideas to the table and having his wartime unpopularity needed a boost of energy.

Now, how would Lincoln have a chance to win in the next election? The war became dominated in Union victories by the 1964 election. After the fall of Atlanta, it was certain that the North would be able to win fairly quickly. Lincoln ran against his former Commanding General George McClellan. Lincoln wanted to finalize the win. McClellan was willing to make a truce. Lincoln won and finalized the war.

Wars as well as any kind of political actions are not usually cause and effects alone but changes of mind and will due to these kinds of events often take some leverage.