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’Heartland’ strategy in Iraq

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  Quote Maju Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: ’Heartland’ strategy in Iraq
    Posted: 14-Mar-2006 at 10:22
Originally posted by pikeshot1600

I don't agree that central Asia fits into any US strategic plan.  Tactically, Uzbekistan et. al. were convenient forward deployment areas for Afghanistan, and are convenient places to engage anti-Islamist authorities.  However, those areas are in the Russian sphere and have been since the mid nineteenth century.



You may not agree but the Pentagon thinks otherwise: there's not any more strategic place outside the oceanic rim to install new US bases in that Central Asia, particularly Uzbekistan. Sadly, its seems that the recent developements in Uzbekistan have got the USA kicked out of its new area of interests and focused to keep at least Afghanistan and Pakistan as regional bases.

The interest of Central Asia is that a solid base in that region cuts the coonections between Russia, China and India, the three main powers of Eurasia. Of course it's also strategical for these three powers, which will become more likely of joining forces if the USA are in control of that region, so maybe after all it's better to leave it alone...

The discourse of the USA may be conciliatory towards Russia and India and even China but in fact it seeks to dominate them all. Another thing is that one has to be realistic in this life...

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  Quote Genghis Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14-Mar-2006 at 11:37
Central Asia is seen by many as a way to diversify our oil sources.  I'm sure the cutting of communication lines between China and Russia and the positioning of forces with which to threaten the West of China and the interior of Russia are also considerations though, as Maju said.
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  Quote SearchAndDestroy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14-Mar-2006 at 12:01

However, the more activity that is concentrated elsewhere, the less there is likely to be in the West.  You fight an enemy in his territory rather than your own, and that does not change whether the enemy is conventional or assymetrical.
There is are key words in this paragraph. "You fight an enemy in his territory", if thats the case we better start expanding our army, because they don't have any real territory. This would have to be a global fight.

The insurgents in Iraq were never going to come to the US. You named two groups that might be in Iraq, but there are far more. All of them with their own leadership, odds are, none of them were going to be coming to the US.

I agree with your idea, but you honestly can't expect that to work in this case. This enemy has nothing to defend, they are willing to die, they don't have a land, they don't wear a uniform, and they can have blonde hair blue eyes, black hair and brown eyes etc... Going to Iraq didn't help fight a enemy, going to Iraq didn't distract them, if anything it did it to us.

Saddam would have proved better strategicly for us because he was going no where and he had his people in a iron grip. We could have used our extra resources to fight else where, to hunt down our main objective. If we started another war, I'm willing to bet by the time it was finished, Saddam still would have been there. And if not, his sons would have very easily taken his place.

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  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14-Mar-2006 at 13:11
Originally posted by Maju

Originally posted by pikeshot1600

I don't agree that central Asia fits into any US strategic plan.  Tactically, Uzbekistan et. al. were convenient forward deployment areas for Afghanistan, and are convenient places to engage anti-Islamist authorities.  However, those areas are in the Russian sphere and have been since the mid nineteenth century.



You may not agree but the Pentagon thinks otherwise: there's not any more strategic place outside the oceanic rim to install new US bases in that Central Asia, particularly Uzbekistan. Sadly, its seems that the recent developements in Uzbekistan have got the USA kicked out of its new area of interests and focused to keep at least Afghanistan and Pakistan as regional bases.

The interest of Central Asia is that a solid base in that region cuts the coonections between Russia, China and India, the three main powers of Eurasia. Of course it's also strategical for these three powers, which will become more likely of joining forces if the USA are in control of that region, so maybe after all it's better to leave it alone...

The discourse of the USA may be conciliatory towards Russia and India and even China but in fact it seeks to dominate them all. Another thing is that one has to be realistic in this life...

Well I do disagree on this one. (surprise)  Central Asia cannot be dominated by the United States because it is not reachable by sea.  Our milieu is the rimland, Russia's is the heartland.  It makes no sense to interpose ourselves in the region (other than temporarily, and with Uzbekistan's agreement).  We have policy differences with some of those governments, and it they want us to go we will.  NATO presence in Afghanistan is now less in need of central Asian support bases unlike in 2001/02.

I don't think US policymakers ever looked at the region except as a temporary jump-off to Afghanistan.  Of course the region is of concern in that instability and great power conflicts that may arise cause problems that can spill over into other areas (Transcaucasus; Iran, of course Afghanistan...that place has been a problem for everyone for like 24 centuries).  Don't look for permanent golf courses or baseball fields in Uzbekistan.

 

 



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  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14-Mar-2006 at 13:36

S&D:

I don't disagree with a lot of your points above, but if you engage an adversary that means you harm, keep him busy on his turf rather than your own.  If terrorists are flocking to Iraq, they are not someplace else.  Of course there are no future guarantees, but there have been no domestic attacks, or indeed attacks against American (not Western) interests since 2001.

Some guy on TV stated that we should have fought terrorism threats with "good police work."  That has already failed.  I guess the FBI thought all those Wahhabis that they knew were taking flying lessons just wanted to be Sky King.

From the standpoint of US security concerns, the idea in Afghanistan was correct.  Iraq, for a lot of reasons was a mistake, but better there than here in terms of security.

 

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  Quote SearchAndDestroy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14-Mar-2006 at 14:20

Alot of those insurgents fighting in Iraq are not fighting for the same reasons. I'd be willing to bet that a fourth of them are Saddam supporters, as during the election you saw one side of the insurgents warning the other not to attack or they'd be fighting each other. They are all fighting for different reasons.

The FBI last week said that Al Qaeda was looking for blonde hair and African Americans to use in a attack at a upcoming basketball game. Our enemy doesn't have a face and doesn't have a territory to protect. They work in cells with any amount of people and there are probably a few sleeper cells in the US now. They are not dumb people, they understand that they now have to be much more careful in how they work.

Like I said before, it only takes a handfull of willing terrorist. They may have never even seen the frontline. Those fighting in Iraq are mostly lower class people, but most terrorist come from middle class. If they want to perform an  unorganized attack they would have, but I believe they are planning something much bigger. 

"A patriot must always be ready to defend his country against his government." E.Abbey
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