Where is Afghanistan Headed?

 

Drug trafficking is a security issue everywhere, and political entities sometimes use it for various reasons.  Since this can be a factor in geopolitics, I suggest we continue on with this part of the discussion in another thread in the Geo subforum.

 

However, IMO internal Afghan politics and affairs do not much affect geopolitics, so continue here in Modern History.

 

Thanks.

 

  

 

I totaly agree with your words of an Iron Fist leader, I mean countries like Afghanistan and Pakistan could not be controlled by Democracy but only and only by dictatorship.

What I am looking forward to is the re-election of Mr. Karzai allied with Mullah Omer, while Karzai's position would be more of a symbolic, it would be the Iron Fist of Mullah Omer (or any alternative Taleb) which would bring that missing thing back to the administration.

 

Now the main problem with this scenario is the Warlords and Northern Alliance, who could fell such and alliance a great treate to their existance.

 

What I see they will be kept in Kabul, in kind of house arrest, the same situation in what Dustom right now is living in Kabul, who is feared that if he gets to North he could once again forge his malitia and form an upraising in the North.

 

So the only way to deal with these concerns is either keeping them in Kabul (Warlords) or reshuffling them like a warlord of North sent to South and South to North and East to West and vice versa.

 

After the Iron Amir Abdul Rahman Khan the only time that the central Administration had such a grip over its people and areas, it was the Taleban government, so when you are giving the looters, burgulars and warlords of 1990-95 a try, why not Taleban who had a better grip then of those.

 

 

 

Karzai was their second choice and probably Ghani and Khalilzad were their 3rd and 4th.  Haq's other brother was killed by a rival warlord.  Ghani left after realizing that the deals with warlords was going to ruin the administration and wanted to get as far away from that as possible.  Khalilzad has moved on to bigger things in Iraq, and now there aren't many choices available.

 

Its kind of hard to see Afghanistan under a strong government, but I believe if enough stagnation occurs in the civil administration and government, the people will rise up against it.  I think America is looking for a strong leader, like a dictator to rule the country with an Iron First, like the Iron Emir - Abdur Rahman Khan who forged Afghanistan in the late 19th century.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Where do you think Afghainstan is headed? After 7 years after the Taliban were removed from power, Afghanistan has gotten worse than it started out. Karzai's administration has lost credibility at home and abroad. Afghanistan's biggest export is Heroine, corruption is rampant in all aspects of civil administration, The Taliban still pose a great threat to most of the country, and there is even talks that they are collaberating with warlords supposedly loyal to Karzai's administration.

I think everybody is aware that this experiment in Democracy will take time to bear fruit but if the root of this democracy is corrupt, what chance does the fruit have?

What kind of Afghanistan do we know when millionaire mansions exist next to squalid tents of evicted poor people?


Internally displaced Refugees in Tents while Warlord Mansions are seen in the background.

Lately I have become rather disallusioned with the situation there. Instead of seeing some progress we are going backwards instead of forward. Even in one of the Presidential debates, they even questioned if a Dictatorship would work in Afghanistan and nobody disagreed.

Thats been one of my greatest fears for Afghanistan, yet I know it's inevitable. So long as Karzai and regimes similar to his are in power, we have only more of the same to look forward to. When the pipeline is built, expect the Taliban and government forces to protect it. Afghanistan will just be secured for the pipeline, the money will fuel the corrupt government, and most of the people will remain destitute with infrastructure being built at a slow pace. I think in the next 15-20 years the government will face a revolution and Afghanistan will be ripe for another bloodletting.

What are your thoughts to where Afghanistan is headed?