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A new system of alliances

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  Quote Kevin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: A new system of alliances
    Posted: 01-Jul-2008 at 05:05
I was just thinking the other day about the current and future state of geopolitical affairs and I was thinking quite possibly a present day Pre-World War I system of alliances that could be currently developing, with for example a loosely connected triple alliance consisting of Russia and China as the two main powers along with various client states such Iran, Valenzuela, and North Korea along with many others. Then the US, the European Union, and possibly India along with a number of client states form again loosely connected version of the Triple entente.

What does everyone think and what effects on geopolitics can be speculated from this.       



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  Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01-Jul-2008 at 06:01
China doesn't want alliances but money. Russia will very gladly enter to the Nato.... if invited. Venezuela has oil, so it doesn't need lords but customers.
 
Superpowers of the past should realize that the world of today moves by money. There isn't anything more pathetic than a poor superpower that has to sale guns to eat.
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  Quote Bankotsu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01-Jul-2008 at 06:13
BRIC: For a new order
http://www.flonnet.com/fl2512/

Imperial sunset?
http://www.flonnet.com/fl2406/

The Game is over : An Interview by Mike Whitney with Michael Hudson on the Economy
http://www.michael-hudson.com/interviews/

Titanic Shift in Global Capital Market Power

http://www.engdahl.oilgeopolitics.net/Financial_Tsunami/Titanic







Edited by Bankotsu - 01-Jul-2008 at 06:19
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  Quote Bankotsu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01-Jul-2008 at 08:02
"We're Entering a Two Economy Society." : Interview with Michael Hudson
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article20208.htm
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  Quote Aussiedude Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01-Jul-2008 at 11:19

I think it will be EU+China vs. US+Russia.

India could go either way.
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  Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01-Jul-2008 at 11:45
EU plus China? WHat you smokin? And do you have any left?
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  Quote Leonidas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01-Jul-2008 at 14:40
Originally posted by Bankotsu

BRIC: For a new order
http://www.flonnet.com/fl2512/

Imperial sunset?
http://www.flonnet.com/fl2406/

The Game is over : An Interview by Mike Whitney with Michael Hudson on the Economy
http://www.michael-hudson.com/interviews/

Titanic Shift in Global Capital Market Power

http://www.engdahl.oilgeopolitics.net/Financial_Tsunami/Titanic


please provide some opinion so we know where your coming from.

 This is economic talk and i don't see how it relates to political alliances. Take BRIC for instance, IIRC, that was a Goldman Sachs invention (term was coined by them) that took four of the biggest emerging economies with arguably the greatest potential, based on demographics/resources.That is Brazil, Russia, china. It stated that it would be good to invest in these 4 as they're going to rival the top developed economies by 2050. That was written in in around 2004/5 and was a very influential piece that started a whole new range of products. i mean mutual funds as they call them in the USA and ETF's. How that has anything to do with a alliance is beyond me.

BTW the group has been changed to include Mexico (BRIMC) and i think later on by others like South Africa and Sth Korea. further Sth Korea is going to be elevated to 'developed'  by the clowns at Standard & Poors. We also have 'Chindia' being thrown around, i kid you not.

So what we have; is a term coined by a investment bank, from a sub set of the 'emerging' economies (investable index), that creates new products and a marketing fad ...but has no real political alliance to think of.....






Edited by Leonidas - 01-Jul-2008 at 14:47
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  Quote Leonidas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01-Jul-2008 at 14:41
Originally posted by Aussiedude

I think it will be EU+China vs. US+Russia.

India could go either way.
China isnt alliance materiel.
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  Quote Bankotsu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01-Jul-2008 at 14:43
What are the factors for alliance material and why China doesn't have it in your view?
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  Quote Leonidas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01-Jul-2008 at 14:48
Originally posted by Bankotsu

What are the factors for alliance material and why China doesn't have it in your view?
They are introverted culturally/politically and have yet to understand that friends can disagree.
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  Quote Bankotsu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01-Jul-2008 at 14:51
and have yet to understand that friends can disagree.


???
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  Quote Leonidas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01-Jul-2008 at 15:05
politically  Beijing doesn't take kindly to honest opinion. 
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  Quote Bankotsu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01-Jul-2008 at 15:08
you mean criticism of policies?
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  Quote Leonidas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01-Jul-2008 at 15:16
some thing like that. Bejing has 'middle kingdom' syndrome. 
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  Quote Bankotsu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01-Jul-2008 at 15:18
I don't think any government would enjoy criticism of its policies.

http://www.johnpilger.com/page.asp?partid=478

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  Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01-Jul-2008 at 15:37
There is substance to Leonidas's comment about China.  The Chinese insularity in culture has historically not lent itself to China relating to outsiders.  This is not unique in Asia, as Japan was similar until the 20th century, and then did not "get it right" until after WW II.  Burma is pathologically xenophobic, etc.
 
A culture that is thousands of years old, that sees itself as the center of all, and with Heaven's mandate, and that historically has felt that others should pay hommage to it is less likely to find or keep allies except in the most extreme circumstances.  I think China is more comfortable going it alone and happy to not be obliged to the USSR or any other foreigners.  The Chinese in general don't like foreigners very much.
 
So, how does this affect China as alliance material?  First of all, they don't have much experience with that.  Before the PRC China's dealings with foreign states were not very favorable.  They were exploited because they could be.  The Allies in WW II, and the USSR afterward dominated China to their great humiliation.  China was not an ally, she was a dependant....and so much for that Communist solidarity under Mao.
 
Second, China's difficult geographic position makes it hard to find allies who are advantageous.  Iran is isolated and, despite the bluster, not much of a strategic factor. 
 
Venezuela is Chavez's socialist fantasy already discredited everywhere else, and of no value strategically as it lies in the Caribbean, and in a crisis would be nullified by the US.  Caudillos have come and gone and Chavez will too.  Long term, Venezuela is part of the Western Hemisphere.
 
North Korea.....well, that country is on borrowed time, and only adds value to China's attempt to run others out of east Asia.  North Korea is an obsolete economic train wreck that seems a threat to some but is totally under PRC control economically.  The future of Korea lies in the southern model, and absent a unification on that model, China does not want floods of starving North Koreans coming across the border.  Korea culturally has been in the Chinese sphere for many centuries, but Koreans are foreigners. 
 
The US will reduce her east Asian presence over time, but the Russians aren't going anywhere.  Therein lies another problem for China.  Russian-Chinese relations historically have rarely (if ever) been very good since the two came into substantial contact.  The USSR was a supporter in desperate times, but that lasted less than two decades, and China doesn't need Russia anymore.  I doubt China will formally involve herself with complicated military ties when Russian interests lie in central Asia...the future Chinese oil source.  Clash of interests don't you know.
 
Islamic states?  Well, there is Pakistan, but how many places are those Communist pork-eating Chinese going to be popular in the Moslem world?  Smile
 
Pakistan has her hands full with India and Afghanistan.  That does not lend too much to China's geopolitical position except for a difficult, tenuous outlet to the Arabian Sea.
 
I would not look for any diplomatic/strategic revolution involving China in the forseeable future.
 
      
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  Quote Bankotsu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01-Jul-2008 at 15:44
I think China is more comfortable going it alone and happy to not be obliged to the USSR or any other foreigners.


I think that is true.

China is mostly concerned with its own affairs.

Historically, China is the least aggressive among big powers.


Edited by Bankotsu - 01-Jul-2008 at 15:45
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