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If the Nazis conquered the USSR?

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Aster Thrax Eupator View Drop Down
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  Quote Aster Thrax Eupator Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: If the Nazis conquered the USSR?
    Posted: 17-Jul-2007 at 07:24
Of course he was expecting the attack. Both parties view the pact as a temporary measure to buy some time. SU and 3D reich were antagonists from the very beginning.
 
Well, I suppose when you have two diametrically opposed superpowers right next to eachother, something's going to happen...
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  Quote ChickenShoes Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17-Jul-2007 at 12:57
Originally posted by elenos

You have a point there ChickenShoes. The master politician knows how to delegate and get what advice they most need from others. All the Nazi tactics had been invented but he allowed for them to happen. For instance the strafing of refugee civilians on the roads to slow down the advance of enemy troops. A cold blooded thing to do but highly effective as a tactic.
 
 
thanks!Smile, i def agre with you!
It is not enough that I succeed - everyone else must fail
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  Quote elenos Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18-Jul-2007 at 04:58
I was thinking of an actual example ChickenShoes and have pulled out some of my notes for a future book.

By 1940 Britain had declared war. The British Channel Islands never declared war hoping to remain neutral. They are near the coast of France, between the French provinces of Normandy and Brittany. The Channel Islands became the only portion of the British Isles to be invaded and occupied by German forces during the war.

On June 17 France asked Germany for terms of surrender. On June 28, traffic lined the high street of St Peter Port in Guernsey, the waterfront of the harbor capitol. Most of the traffic was trucks laden with greenhouse tomatoes. They waited to load their produce onto boats bound for England. A dull thunder rolled in the sky, rose to a constant roar, then the planes swooped. Cannon fire raked the road and incendiary bombs sent up smoke and flames as the vegetable trucks exploded. Blood and tomatoes stained the cobbled streets and wharfs.

(Reports from the London Times)

The Channel Islands Raids.

 The death toll was 33. In Guernsey 23 were killed and 36
injured. 10 were killed and several more injured in Jersey.

 The Ministry of Information stated last night.

As it has already been announced, the Channel Islands
have been demilitarized. It is now learnt that enemy
landings have been made in Guernsey and Jersey.
Telegraphic and telephonic communications have been cut
and no further information is at present available.

The German battle songs beginning with Engellandied (for
we're off to fight against England) were turned on again
last night after the broadcasting of a special communique
of the German High Command announcing the capture of
the Channel Islands. 

German Propaganda Report

On June 30, the British Island of Guernsey was captured
in a daring coup de main' by detachments of the German
Air Force. In an air fight a German Reconnaissance
aeroplane shot down two Bristol Blenheim bombers. On
July 1, the island of Jersey were occupied by surprise in
the same manner.

elenos
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  Quote edgewaters Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19-Jul-2007 at 13:45
Originally posted by ChickenShoes

I wouldn't say his military notions were even remarkably astute in the beginning. He was a master politician with an amazing poker face. He was skilled in the art of manipulation, but he did not invent blitzkrieg or any of the tactics used in World War II, he just oversaw them.


Actually he even opposed blitzkrieg in its first real instance (when Guderian crossed the Meuse near Sedan). Guderian was ordered not to exploit the breach and wait for infantry reinforcements to move up and form a salient, on Hitler's direct orders. Guderian managed to get permission from von Kleist to do a reconnaisance in force around Sedan - to a depth of 10km. Guderian simply ignored both Hitler's direct order and the limitations of Kleist's order and proceeded on ... Guderian literally defied the entire German command, including Hitler, and all of German military doctrine - there was no plan to conduct deep battle in France but when command discovered Guderian off madly racing towards Paris with the French helpless to do anything about, it became all part of Hitler's infallible genius and his masterful planning.

What Hitler was really good at doing, was taking credit for the successes of others, while laying the blame for his failures on his staff.
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  Quote longshanks31 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22-Jul-2007 at 19:39
Any attempt to invade britain by the axis powers would have come unstuck and would have proven a costly mistake.
The axis powers had the brains to know this when it came to the crunch and they shelved the idea.
Thankfully the scenario described never happened and thanks to the russians and the british empire both fronts were held.
A second front was only ever opened because they did not fancy there chances across the channel and they failed to get the required air superiority.
Plus the german surface fleet was pretty poor.
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  Quote deadkenny Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21-Aug-2007 at 20:49
Although the original post was not 'concerned' with how the Germans might have won, a number of subsequent posts have raised issues that indicate that the how is an important issue that would affect the 'aftermath' even given a German 'victory'.  I agree with earlier comments to the effect that, given Germany's historical campaign of 'brutality' and 'extermination', even being more successful militarily would still leave a 'rump' state based in the east and ongoing 'irregular' warfare against partisans in the 'occupied' zone that would tax Germany's resources.  In that sort of scenario the best the Germans could manage would have been to 'stalemate' the west until nuclear weapons were available.  Basically in order to 'win', Germany would have had to force Britain out of the war.  However, to accomplish this Germany needed not only to 'win' militarily in the east, but to be able to 'hold' it with minimal resources of their own.

With their historical campaign against the Soviet Union, Hitler had simply 'bitten off more than he could chew'.  He was trying to accomplish 2 goals in a single campaign, both the military defeat of the Soviet Union and the extermination of a segment of the population in preparation for German 'colonization'.   Now, a key component of a 'successful' campaign would be, IMHO, to separate these 2 actions into distinct 'phases'.  The first phase would involve the military defeat of the Soviet Union, followed by its breakup -  to be 'replaced' by a number of fascist 'puppet' regimes.  Puppet states in the Ukraine, Crimea, Baltic States and Caucasus would likely have been the most successful.  Perhaps less so in the core Russian areas.  A simple approach of 'reopening churches' and 'redistribution' of the collectivized land would have 'won over' much of the rural population. With a successful 'Phase I', Germany would have been free to concentrate on the west.  This would have involved switching their production and R&D efforts to air, naval and WMD's in order to force Britain out of the war.  Germany would have held a huge geographical advantage in this conflict, as Britain would have vulnerable to attack from the nearby French coast, while Germany would have had a defensive 'buffer' of France and the low countries that would have to be penetrated before Germany itself could be hit.  Once the Germans had build large numbers of advanced models of u-boats, fighters and heavy bombers it would have been increasingly difficult for Britain to hold out.    
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  Quote deadkenny Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08-Sep-2007 at 17:54
Originally posted by Ironduke

...And a rather long debate on my own forum, at 1234 replies with many military experts weighing in:

http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/history-warfare/3123-could-germany-have-won-wwii.html


The thread on your own forum appears to be MIA. ;)
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  Quote Beylerbeyi Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09-Sep-2007 at 20:08
Wehrmacht was defeated by the Red Army, not because of winter.
 
They underestimated the Soviet industry and military power and they paid for it. They thought that Russia was a peasant state and would fold under massive attack, like the Tsarist Russia did in the first world war, or China did against Japanese attack. However the USSR was transformed by Stalin into an industrial power in a very short time.
 
Stalin said in 1933: 'We are 100 years behind the Western powers. Either we close this gap in 10 years, or they will wipe us off the map.' The bastard was right, the Germans came knocking before even 10 years were up.
 
Anyway, Even if the Germans had taken the Caucasus they would have lost, the Russians had already started to sabotage the oilfields in Baku. They had enough oil in the Urals themselves. Even if the Germans had taken Moscow or Leningrad, they had to cross the Volga, and later the Urals. They already had difficulty with logistics, half the way in.
 
As to the original question, what would have happened if the Germans conquered the USSR? We know their plans. They planned to inflict 30 million causalties, and expel the rest of the Russians in European territories to Asia beyond the Urals. Then they would colonise the European Russia with German farmers, in a fashion similar to the US expansion to the West.
 
Soviets foiled this plan, but they lost about 25+ millions anyway.
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  Quote deadkenny Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09-Sep-2007 at 20:29
Originally posted by Beylerbeyi

Wehrmacht was defeated by the Red Army, not because of winter.


Absolutely!  Both sides suffered from the winter - the Soviets less so perhaps because they were better prepared.  However, the Germans being 'overextended' and at the end of a tenuous supply line were also important factors.  On the flip side, because the Germans formed 'hedgehog' defensive positions centered on villages that provided some shelter while the Soviets were forced to operate largely in the 'open', and the Soviets supply lines were forced to run 'cross country' because the Germans were holding key positions on the established lines of communications, the Germans gained some advantages from the winter as well.  Without the Red Army offensive, the Germans would not have suffered anywhere near the losses they did due to winter, once they had called off their own attacks.

Originally posted by Beylerbeyi

They underestimated the Soviet industry and military power and they paid for it. They thought that Russia was a peasant state and would fold under massive attack, like the Tsarist Russia did in the first world war, or China did against Japanese attack. However the USSR was transformed by Stalin into an industrial power in a very short time.


Even more, Hitler depended on his own prejudices rather than 'hard' intelligence information.  He believed that Slavs were racially 'inferior' and that 'communism' was an inferior system and therefore the Red Army could not possibly fight effectively.  The Winter War performance of the Red Army, and then its performance during the early stages of the German invasion confirmed him in these prejudgements.  In fact, Stalin's brutal regime was possibly 'vulnerable' to 'collapse', if faced with a war of 'liberation' (reopening of the churchs and redistribution of the collectivized land).  However, the campaign of deliberate brutality and extermination right from the start was to a significant extent 'self-defeating'.  Once Nazi policies had 'forced' the vast majority of the Soviet population to supporting Stalin's regime (in order to resist extermination) and Soviet factories starting cranking out large volumes of advanced weaponry the Germans were in trouble. 
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