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Russia should have attacked in 1958

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  Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Russia should have attacked in 1958
    Posted: 25-Mar-2007 at 15:48
against NATO.  They may have been at their strongest relative to NATO.
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  Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25-Mar-2007 at 15:50
This was all before the ICBM era and no one really knew how accurate the bombers could deliver the nukes.
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  Quote Spartakus Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25-Mar-2007 at 16:25

Even the possibility of an army having nukes,especially in an era where radar and ,generally,surveillance capabilities where primitive, is severe enough to prevent a war.

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  Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25-Mar-2007 at 18:14

This probably would have been Russia's best chance...once the ICBM era came in it was over.  Russia could never complete with the US.

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  Quote Adalwolf Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25-Mar-2007 at 23:16
The swarms of Russian troops and tanks invading West Germany would have been nuked into sl*g. I doubt at this stage there were enough nukes to cause total destruction to the planet, but I'm glad the war never happened. It would have been long, bloody, and destructive. 
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  Quote DukeC Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26-Mar-2007 at 01:18
Under Eisenhower the U.S. saw a great growth in it's nuclear arsenal, many of the weapons were tactical. In 1958 they had battlefield nukes that could be shot from cannon, launched by rocket or dropped by tactical air. Any Soviet breakthrough would have been vapourized, which is probably why it never happened.
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  Quote Dan Carkner Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26-Mar-2007 at 08:46
Even if it did happen, would we be any better off today?
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  Quote pekau Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13-May-2007 at 18:42
Russia would have had better chance, yes. But the possibility of Soviet military to wipe out all European resistance as well as the American reinforcement would be slim.
 
And this is only possible if we take the nuclear warhead out of the equation.
     
   
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  Quote Genghis Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13-May-2007 at 23:58
Here is a graph of US and USSR nuclear arsenals during the Cold War.  As you can see, in 1958 the USSR had a limited arsenal and the USA had a fairly large one.  If anything, the USA should have attacked the Russians then.  The Soviets also got a much bigger advantage out of ICBM's than the USA did.  The Red Air Force would have a much harder time destroying American bombers than the USA would have had shooting down Russian bombers over Europe and the North Pole.  ICBM's (and later SLBM's) could not be stopped by the enemy after launch and were the Russians only real chance of assuring the destruction of the USA as a functioning society.  The USSR also had a much better chance in the late 1970's after Gorshkov had expanded their fleet.
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  Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14-May-2007 at 06:15

The Russians should have attacked west in 1945, going by your reasoning. They would have crushed the allies. had numerical superiority, 9 Army Groups vs 3.

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  Quote Genghis Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14-May-2007 at 15:14
They also didn't have a nuclear deterrent then, and much of their homeland lay in ruins.  They also had no fleet to pose any sort of a threat to NATO shipping lanes from North America to Europe. 
 
According to any sort of reasoning I really don't think it would have been a prudent decision for the USSR to attack the West at any time.  All it would have gotten them would have a been the ruins of Europe and several million dead soldiers and a great deal of destruction within Russia itself.
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  Quote Cryptic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14-May-2007 at 15:51
I think that 1974 would have been the best year for a Soviet attack due to the following reasons:
- U.S military was exhausted after Vietnam and many units had serious discipline problems.
- U.S. had to maintain a large strategic reserve to deal with the possibility of a North Korean military (very formidable in 1974) attack into South Korea.
- USA did not have an overhwleming technological advantage in 1974.  In contrast, the Soviet Union had just introduced many new weapons including anti aircraft systems such as (SA-6, SA-7, ZSU23-4) and new combat vehicles (BMP, T-72). These weapons may have given them a slight edge in ground combat power.  Then factor in the Soviet numerical advantage.  
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  Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14-May-2007 at 23:14
^
Good point. Add to that, it being the era of detante, the Russians would have had strategic surprise.
 
 
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  Quote Genghis Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15-May-2007 at 00:03
Even during the height of Detente, I don't think they'd have that much surprise.  US-Soviet relations were cold ever since 1943.  NORAD would have been on alert for a soviet surprise attack for decades.

Edited by Genghis - 15-May-2007 at 00:04
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  Quote Cryptic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15-May-2007 at 14:06
Originally posted by Genghis

Even during the height of Detente, I don't think they'd have that much surprise.  US-Soviet relations were cold ever since 1943.  NORAD would have been on alert for a soviet surprise attack for decades.
 
A nasty soviet surprise would not have to involve nuculear weapons.  A far more likely scenario would be a massive conventional attack into West Germany with only three days warning.  This is not enough time to dig comprehensive denfenses etc. .  
 
The Soviet dream scenario would be.... Soviet troops advance deep into West Germany while Polish / Soviet amphibious forces sieze parts of Denmark.   The Germans refuse to allow the use of nukes to stop Soviet armour formations.   West German government then collapses as more territiory is occupied.  Soviets bring up reinforcements far faster than USA can ship units across the Atlantic.   Even more troubling, not all NATO nations "fully honor" the treaty commitments.
 
Soviet tank divisions advance into parts of the Netherlands.   NATO calls for a cease fire.  Soviets get West Germany, Denmark and most of the Netherlands. 


Edited by Cryptic - 15-May-2007 at 14:30
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  Quote DukeC Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16-May-2007 at 11:42
You need to factor in the tension between the east and west blocks during the Cold War. There was a great deal of antagonism between them and any major Soviet  operation into western Europe would have been met with tactical and then probably strategic nuclear weapons as the conflict escalated. In a crisis it wouldn't have mattered if the West German government opposed the use of nukes, the French, British and Americans would have overridden them. Keep in mind that a successful Soviet invasion would have meant the probable destruction of European society. I doubt the Soviets would have stopped in the Netherlands, they would have kept going all the way to the U.K.
 
MAD(Mutually Assured Destruction) prevented any openly aggressive action between the NATO and the communist block. The leaders on both sides were fully aware of the consequences of even a limited conflict escalating into a full nuclear exchange. 


Edited by DukeC - 16-May-2007 at 12:55
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  Quote Cryptic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17-May-2007 at 08:41
Originally posted by DukeC

any major Soviet  operation into western Europe would have been met with tactical and then probably strategic nuclear weapons as the conflict escalated. 
If NATO was forced to use tactical nuculear weapons to stop a Soviet conventional attack, NATO would be saying "We have lost and we are getting very desperate".   Besides, it may take scores of tactical nukes to stop the Soviet dispersed heavy armoured formations (tanks, APC etc can absorb alot of damage  / radiation and then quickly relocate).  In addition, the Soviets had alot of  comprehensive decontamination equipment and would be sheltering in captured towns when possible.   In short, many West German civilians would be killed for every one Soviet Soldier.  
Originally posted by DukeC

I doubt the Soviets would have stopped in the Netherlands, they would have kept going all the way to the U.K.
Soviet hawks would not want to stop, but Soviet realists would.   In capturing large parts of West Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands, the Soviets would have suffered heavy casualties.   Almost all of the fighting would have to be done by Soviets (other Warsaw Pact members make only limited contributions).    Soviets would also be risking a nuculear war if advances continued.  Best not to gamble "double or nothing" when you are already ahead Wink.
Originally posted by DukeC

 
MAD(Mutually Assured Destruction) prevented any openly aggressive action between the NATO and the communist block.
I dont think so.  Strong NATO conventional forces developed int he 1980s under Ronald Reagan created a "flexible response".  This is what kept the peace.  Relying purely on MAD was was a weak strategy and encouraged agressive Soviet leaders to gamble as in the hypothetical scenario that we are discussing.   
 
Originally posted by DukeC

Keep in mind that a successful Soviet invasion would have meant the probable destruction of European society.
Under Stalin yes, but not under 1970s style Soviuet rule.  Captured nations would "elect" socialist  governments" and become satellites with only very minimal internal purges.


Edited by Cryptic - 17-May-2007 at 10:25
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  Quote DukeC Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17-May-2007 at 11:47

It was part of NATOs stated policy to use battlefield nukes in the event of an overwhelming Soviet ground attack. By the 1980s the U.S. had weapons like the Pershing II tactical missile in place that would have targted Soviet command centers far behind the front. This in turn probably would have seen Soviet response with their tactical rockets and missiles and then further escalation.

A Soviet advance into Europe was probably one of the most gamed scenarios in history and most of its possible outcomes ended with a full nuclear exchange. The Soviets were as aware of this as anyone, which is why they never attacked.
 
As for for Soviet restraint, after staring down the west for 20 or more years, if they got a chance to end the conflict they would have taken it-fully. I doubt that the Soviets would have stopped until both France and the U.K. and their nuclear forces were neutralized. And considering how poorly the Soviets treated their own people, even at that time, their rule in the west would have been harsh.


Edited by DukeC - 17-May-2007 at 12:12
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  Quote Cryptic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17-May-2007 at 17:14
Originally posted by DukeC

It was part of NATOs stated policy to use battlefield nukes in the event of an overwhelming Soviet ground attack. By the 1980s the U.S. had weapons like the Pershing II tactical missile in place that would have targted Soviet command centers far behind the front.
    Pershing II missiles gave the US the option of striking with survivable tactical nukes.  This was only an option though and was never meant to be an automatic response.
 
In contrast, the main goal of the 1980s USA defense build up was to create a flexible response. The USA did not want to be  reliant on an "all or nothing" MAD strategy to stop the Soviets.   The development of M-1 Abrams and Bradley IFV as part of the "Big Five" weapons systems gave the USA the ability to stop the Soviets with conventional forces.   The Pershings then served as a deterrant to Soviet nuculear forces.  
 
 


Edited by Cryptic - 17-May-2007 at 17:16
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  Quote DukeC Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17-May-2007 at 19:58
Originally posted by Cryptic

Pershing II missiles gave the US the option of striking with survivable tactical nukes.  This was only an option though and was never meant to be an automatic response.
 
In contrast, the main goal of the 1980s USA defense build up was to create a flexible response. The USA did not want to be  reliant on an "all or nothing" MAD strategy to stop the Soviets.   The development of M-1 Abrams and Bradley IFV as part of the "Big Five" weapons systems gave the USA the ability to stop the Soviets with conventional forces.   The Pershings then served as a deterrant to Soviet nuculear forces.
 
War is a messy business. With upwards of 100,000 armored vehicles and SPAs heading west along with several thousand tactical aircraft and possible use of chemical and biological weapons I think that things would have gotten totally out of control. Somebody would have panicked either at the operational level or above and used NBC weapons setting a chain reaction off.
 
The modern NATO weapons would have made a Soviet advance much more difficult but probably wouldn't have stopped it, they just didn't have the numbers. Western leaders would have had to choose between defeat or the use of NBC.


Edited by DukeC - 17-May-2007 at 22:37
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