Mongols versus Western Europe post-1241

 

would you please provide me with the sources for your claims because I have a lot of sources that support my claim including from the Mongol side. The mongols had between three and four tumens in all of Syria by the time Hulegu left and as much as 16 thousand allies some christian the others muslims, the number of the allies come from Islamic sources because those allies were ransomed for money later when they were captured. Rashid AL-Din, the principle mongol historian gives these claims some credibility and said Hulegu never had more than 100-120 thousand men which meant he only left a quarter to a fifth of his army not a very small force because he also directed Kitubga Noyan (a term meaning the leader of ten thousand, a tumen and Arab sources mention two other noyans during the Ain Jalut campaing) to complete the conquest, a task that even Hulegu himself knows it can't be done by 10 thousand men. Now Rashid Al-din did not elaborate on the losses but mentions a letter from Hulegu to the great Khan Kublai which was full of greif about the losses, after the letter, the Ilkhanids were officially established.

 

As for the "civil wars", well, there were only two major battles between the mongols one agaisnt Berke khans successors (1266) and another in 1273 against the chagatais. After that, he finally lead a campaing against Baibars in Elbistan (1277) where his troops were crushed. To revenge  his loss, he gathered the largest mongol army till that time against the mamelukes who were a bloody 4 year civil war, they were crushed in Homs so much so, they only campained against an enemy period let alone another campaign against the Mamelukes after reimforcements came from the homeland some 5 years after.

 

AL-Jassas

 

But notice here they didn't mention the allies, I never said that mongols themselves were more than 20 thousand at ain Jalut, I said they were exactly that number, the rest of the army, 16 thousand were allies which mean they were not outnumbered 5 to 1 as many historians believe, but by approximately by 3 to 2 and keep in mind from the 26 mameluke princes of 1000, only 16 fought (25 thousand mamelukes because the sultan guard were 8 thousand men and some troops went without their princes) and the rest were militias mostly tribals who were none the less excellent soldiers. Also these guys didn't mention other mongol troops in Syria that were dispersed which according to Arab and Persia sources about two other tumens led by two noyans one was defeated (6 thousand of the 10 thousand were actually mercilessly massacred the rest went to Armenia and then to Azerbaijan) in a known battle near Aleppo in Feburary of 61 and the other gathered the rest of the mongols and left for Iraq where the governor was about to intervene but summer came. All in all there were some 4 tumens or approximately 40 thousand mongols in Syria not 10 thousand.

 

Another thing, it seems you never heard about the mongol attack on Gaza several monts prior to Ain Jalut. The mongols attack Gaza and took it then left it because of summer to the Galile. Then in that summer Kitubga sent warning to the mamelukes in a well known incident where the messengers were beheaded and their heads were hung from Bab Zuwailah so he did in fact go to war and he got killed in the process. Go to Rashid Al-Din, Abulfida, Ibn Khilikan, Al-Juwaini and many other who were also contemporaries. as for mongols never campaining against the mamelukes again, well what about Elbistan (1277), what about Homs (1281), what about Ain Al-Khazandar (1296), the Gazan campaign of 1299-1300, Marj As-Safr the greatest battle of them all in 1304? All these were major campaigns against the mongol and by the mongols against the Egyptians.

 

Al-Jassas

 

Defeating a cat is still something even if it isn't a tiger when you are a mouse by comparisant. ;)

- It was said by many that Mongols retreated because Ogodei died. May be so. But Ogodei was no young man. He was over 50. If he was to live longer, it could not be much longer. And if Western Europe was to be conquered it would be certainly a tougher nut to crack than Hungary or Poland. Therefore if Ogodei's death triggers the end of their western adventure, they wouldn't be able to conquer Europe entirely. They just don't have the time to organize the campaigns and to fight the necessary battles.

- Hungary and Poland were significantly less fortified and arguably less populated than important parts of Western Europe in the 13th century. We know that Mongols successes in their European campaigns were impressive but not flawless and complete: they had casualties, there were some indecissive skirmishes the historians still argue about their significance, there were fortifications which were not overrun (some were conquered by tricks like feign retreats, some weren't conquered at all).

- Resources and logistics. Based on what I know of Mongols in Europe, I don't see the Mongol campaign able to achieve this goal. Their centers of power in Central Asia were way too remote and no center of power they established in Europe seems strong enough to support such a lengthy and costly adventure.

- Another key aspect in their success in Poland and Hungary is the element of surprise which would be drastically diminished after 1242 if they were to persist in their pressure on the West. 

 

 

I disagree that the Americans were constrained by public opinion, because American public opinion only tends to turn negative after it becomes obvious that a military adventure is failing. By the late '60s, the American people rightly percieved that trying to maintain an unnatural status-quo in South Vietnam (which is the only way I can think of to describe the goal of the campaign) was not worth the human and material resources being expended. The Mongols were in a similar position with regards to their westernmost campaigns - it would have been nice to succeed, but they weren't about to let these missions take precedence over other commitments. If Batu Khan had told his men, "forget the khuriltai, we haven't subdued Albania yet!", I have no doubt his army (essentially, public opinion) would have left him to attack Albania alone.

 

The Mongols could be defeated in Chalons like the Western Europeans did with the Huns, which was almost the same tactics of the Mongols... maybe!!!