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what if the nationalists didn’t lose mainland china?

Printed From: History Community ~ All Empires
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Forum Name: Historical Amusement
Forum Discription: For role playing and alternative history discussions.
URL: http://www.allempires.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1409
Printed Date: 09-Jun-2024 at 17:40
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Topic: what if the nationalists didn’t lose mainland china?
Posted By: coolstorm
Subject: what if the nationalists didn’t lose mainland china?
Date Posted: 02-Dec-2004 at 09:56
what would've happened instead?



Replies:
Posted By: babyblue
Date Posted: 02-Dec-2004 at 09:58
 oh....setting up this topic to give me heart attacks?

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Posted By: coolstorm
Date Posted: 02-Dec-2004 at 10:02
why heart attacks?


Posted By: mongke
Date Posted: 04-Dec-2004 at 22:09
The nationalist would have continued being a corrupt regime until a popular uprising breaks up their monopoly.  


Posted By: Romano Nero
Date Posted: 05-Dec-2004 at 23:45
They couldn't. If they could, China would end up as another US-NATO colonies in the third wirld, a large country, with endless resources, a corrupt regime and no policy of her own.


Posted By: Tobodai
Date Posted: 06-Dec-2004 at 01:43

probably, but it could also have become an Asian tiger earlier with better free market policies, like South Korea or Japan and with Chinas resources and manpower it would easily eclipse those two.



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"the people are nothing but a great beast...
I have learned to hold popular opinion of no value."
-Alexander Hamilton


Posted By: Liang Jieming
Date Posted: 06-Dec-2004 at 02:33
I agree with Tobodai.  It might have become a economic powerhouse by the 1970s, not hindered by the failures of the Great Leap Forward or the Cultural Revolution, and eclipsed everyone else in the region, including Japan, S.Korea, Taiwan and all the other "tigers" of SEA... but they would have had to clean up their house first though.  However, if Taiwan today is any judge of what might have been, it'd say this senario is not unlikely.

An earlier Chinese powerhouse would have made the Japanese economic miracle still-born and the Koreans and the rest of the region as support economies of the Chinese market, just like what China's current ascension is likely to do.

Jieming
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/DragonSeedLegacy


Posted By: Romano Nero
Date Posted: 06-Dec-2004 at 03:21

This is an extremely optimistic scenario, which doesn't take into account the actual historical evidence. Taiwan and S. Korea are not comparable to China, by no means.

But still, the nationalists couldn't prevail.



Posted By: Temujin
Date Posted: 06-Dec-2004 at 12:45

Originally posted by Romano Nero

China would end up as another US-NATO colonies in the third wirld, a large country, with endless resources, a corrupt regime and no policy of her own.

 

that's what mroe or less already has happened. it's basically the revival of Batista Cuba...



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Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: 06-Dec-2004 at 15:07

under the KMT's corrupt regime,

  • the scourge of opium addiction continues
  • uncontrollable populationn growth; China's population would be much higher than the current 1.3 billion
    • The Tibet region would almost be de-populated
      • continuing the alarming trend over the past centuries---owing to addherence to strict religious practice, under the Dalai Lama, of celibacy
  • much lower literacy rate

Thus, on this basis, China would most probably be no more successful than India.

 



Posted By: Romano Nero
Date Posted: 06-Dec-2004 at 16:05
Originally posted by Temujin

Originally posted by Romano Nero

China would end up as another US-NATO colonies in the third wirld, a large country, with endless resources, a corrupt regime and no policy of her own.

 

that's what mroe or less already has happened. it's basically the revival of Batista Cuba...

I think currently China pushes forward their own agenda. They are drawing capital from the west, selling (extremely) cheap their labor, creating a middle class... they are pulling together for a capitalist transformation.

Batista's Cuba was just a corrupt protectorate (not of the US government, but) of the US corporations and mega-sharks, not a sovereign nation.



Posted By: mongke
Date Posted: 06-Dec-2004 at 22:06
I'm not quite sure that china would have developed much faster under KMT. It would have taken the regime and the country time to clean up their act. The problem is that Chiang Kai Shek eventhough he was a strong politician, he really did not have much of a track record on economic affairs. I would say that at best China would have begun the path of developing as it is now in the mid 60's. There just way too many things that needed cleaning up.


Posted By: Liang Jieming
Date Posted: 06-Dec-2004 at 22:16
Originally posted by Romano Nero

This is an extremely optimistic scenario, which doesn't take into account the actual historical evidence. Taiwan and S. Korea are not comparable to China, by no means.

But still, the nationalists couldn't prevail.


hehehe, yeah fairly optimistic viewpoint though not that remote a possibility either.  All speculation anyways.  It depends on so many factors that your guess is as good as mine coz anything could have happened.  The opposite could also occur with the corruption and stranglehold of the old aristocratic houses styming progress since they would not have been swept away by the cultural revolution.

Jieming
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/DragonSeedLegacy


Posted By: warhead
Date Posted: 06-Dec-2004 at 23:38

"probably, but it could also have become an Asian tiger earlier with better free market policies, like South Korea or Japan and with Chinas resources and manpower it would easily eclipse those two."

 

As if,

 

The growth under nationalist was anything but fast, infact it was stagnating;

The growth under communist was much faster with an average annual growth rate for 1953-1974 as 5.6 percent in GNP, 3.4 percent in GDP per capita; 10.5 percent in industrial production, 2.4 percent in agricultural production, 2.2 percent in population.
By its size, this growth has pushed China to higher level of global power. In 1976 China hand 4.7 percent of the world's share in GNP which is the 6th largest in the world. All this is comparing to a China prior to PRC which had virtually no industry and power. And this is not it. In scientific acheivement, the PRC produced its atomic weapon in 1964, its first space satellite in 1970, ballistic missiles at the same time. It became a major regional power a potential global power and an important actor in international politics, all of which was at its nadir during the nationalists.

The Chinese aren't stupid, they chose the communists over the nationalists for a reason.

The better question is what if there is no great leap forward or dultural revolution, skippking that time frame, China would have already been a economic superpower.



Posted By: coolstorm
Date Posted: 07-Dec-2004 at 02:52

"and eclipsed everyone else in the region, including Japan, S.Korea, Taiwan"

This is wrong. Taiwan has always been under control of the ROC. If the ROC didn't lost her control over the mainland, Taiwan and Mainland China would be united now.



Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: 07-Dec-2004 at 03:23

 If the ROC didn't lost her control over the mainland?

Haha,how can that be possible,if they didn't lose,we chinese people will go on fighting until it has been defeated.

Without US,Taiwan and Mainland China would be united long time ago.The KMT army is as weak  as a piece of glass.



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Posted By: R_AK47
Date Posted: 08-Apr-2006 at 13:25

Originally posted by coolstorm

what would've happened instead?

China would be a far greater country today if the Kuomintang was still in power.  Chiang Kai-Sheck was a fair and just leader who ruled his country wisely.  Creating an alliance with the evil communist Mao Tse-Tung during WW2 was one of his few mistakes.  He should have crushed Mao first, then dealt with the invading forces of Japan.  Perhaps someday, the Kuomintang will return to mainland China and take back what is rightfully theres.



Posted By: R_AK47
Date Posted: 08-Apr-2006 at 13:26
Originally posted by imok

under the KMT's corrupt regime,

  • the scourge of opium addiction continues
  • uncontrollable populationn growth; China's population would be much higher than the current 1.3 billion
    • The Tibet region would almost be de-populated
      • continuing the alarming trend over the past centuries---owing to addherence to strict religious practice, under the Dalai Lama, of celibacy
  • much lower literacy rate

Thus, on this basis, China would most probably be no more successful than India.

Chiang and the Kuomintang were not corrupt.



Posted By: Maju
Date Posted: 08-Apr-2006 at 13:56
Interesting topic. In a sense the evolution of the PRC is much like if it was ruled by the Kuomintang now. They are very capitalist and nationalist. They are corrupt too. But...

Originally posted by Tobodai

probably, but it could also have become an Asian tiger earlier with better free market policies, like South Korea or Japan and with Chinas resources and manpower it would easily eclipse those two.



The problem is that the Asian tigers evolved largely thank to the interest in the area caused by Russia-China-US tensions. Eventually, after the loss of mainland China, the USA had lost one of its most strategic "acquisitions" of WWII. Vietnam reminded the fragility of Western Capitalist domain later. The West, particularly the USA, had to react somehow and offering some benefits of the Capitalist system, allowing them to become 2nd level economies (1st level in the case of Japan) as a plus for remaining in their side in the "great game".

With this I don't want to deny the local merits, just to point out that macroeconomical geostrategical planning may have played a role. Obviously, as it happens now the West (US included) face the problem that they can't allow China to consume as much per capita as they do, not even a fraction if they can help it. Everybody knows that the planetary resources are scarce and there aren't enough for all. This issue would have been relevant as well for a KMT China. It could have made of China a Brazil or India or it could have caused heavy frictions between Beijing and Washington. Always with the USSR looking over there from Siberia.

It would be a curious scenario, indeed.


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NO GOD, NO MASTER!


Posted By: edgewaters
Date Posted: 08-Apr-2006 at 18:43
it could also have become an Asian tiger earlier with better free market policies


Originally posted by R_AK47

Chiang and the Kuomintang were not corrupt.


Errrmmmm ... the reality of the KMT is FAR different from the views some apparently ill-informed persons have been expressing ... they seem to have not heard of the 228 Incident, the White Terror, the fact that Taiwan was a one-party state for most of its history under the KMT, or the fact that right now it is the richest political party on the planet because as the government, it took control of most of the economy: banks, manufacturing, television and radio, most of it was (and much of still is) not privately owned but owned by the KMT.

The KMT was an authoritarian dictatorship with a centrally planned economy (and still has one of the world's highest levels of state ownership) ... it did not espouse communism but it was in effect still a totalitarian system for much of its history.


Posted By: Herschel
Date Posted: 27-Apr-2006 at 01:27
I'm surprised no one has mentioned a split China yet. I would predict a Communistic North and a Nationalist South.

Beijing vs. Shanghai
Yellow River  vs. Yangtze River
Wheat vs. Rice
Soviet sphere vs. NATO sphere


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Posted By: Killabee
Date Posted: 27-Apr-2006 at 19:57
All I can say at least 80 millions lives can be spared if KMT retained as the ruling party.


Posted By: R_AK47
Date Posted: 28-Apr-2006 at 13:42
Yes, the KMT would have been much better for China than the communists.


Posted By: Killabee
Date Posted: 28-Apr-2006 at 19:12

Originally posted by Herschel

I'm surprised no one has mentioned a split China yet. I would predict a Communistic North and a Nationalist South.

Beijing vs. Shanghai
Yellow River  vs. Yangtze River
Wheat vs. Rice
Soviet sphere vs. NATO sphere

It was actually proposed by  Chiang's KMT when he was chased after by CCP but turned down by Mao who knew he could overthrow Chiang easily.

 



Posted By: poirot
Date Posted: 28-Apr-2006 at 19:28

*actually, the KMT and the Soviets maintained on friendly terms, and Soviets did not officially recognize the PRC until it was evident that the PRC would prevail.  Generalissmo Chiang was actually quite anti-American in person, and only realist politics drove him to embrace pro-US policies.  Washington even plotted to supplant Chiang with General Sun Liren, a West Point graduate who was more pro-American and more controllable than the old man. 

China's turn toward communism was inevitable, and only a matter of time.  Nowdays, we blame the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution, and indeed, they stymied progress, but if one took out those two from the equation, a socialist/communist regime worked better for China at the time.  China during the 1950s, right after the communist takeover and before Mao's mind became unhinged, was far better, on average, and for the average worker, than China during the 1940s under  KMT rule.

The best route would be communist takeover without the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution. 



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"The crisis of yesterday is the joke of tomorrow.�   ~ HG Wells
           



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