China?

ESA probably

who knows what will happen after a century

it's however gotta be one of these countries

china is one of the three countries that can put men into space with its own technology.

europe, india, and japan however are not able to do that yet

by the end of the 22nd century, i can gaurantee u that china will be the largest economy (it's the second largest after usa now) and one of the richest country even on a per capita basis (china's population is expected to decrease to half of its current level in 2090)

NASA may have the will, but it lacks the capacity.

China lacks the technology.

Russia has the capacity,maybe the will, but not the money.

European Space Agency, is a profit making venture, it has the money and capacity, but not the will, unless the base could somehow be made profitable.

Japan similar to Europe wants profit, it also lacks the capacity.

So it would have an international effort. Only country likely to want to pay for it is the US, but they would need the Europeans and Russians to get them there.

I actually have a book written in the 70's (i think) that has said that using microwave radiation you could collect energy on the moon, process it and then beam it back down to earth for cheaper than current technology. Of course the book said no company would receive a profit for about 35 years. I'll check my book shelf at home but I think it was called "Colonies in Space".

It was actually quite a good read.

Oh and BTW I think an orbiting colony should be more feasible than a moon colony at this point in time.

I voted for America, but I bet the first one will be an international space colony.

Since Russia is out of the game and  although China has made an impressive progress in this field, USA are still way ahead.So....USA.

No one will colonize the moon unles soem resource is discovered, fiscal incentives are the only reason for colonization.  But if by some chance someone sets up a colony Im betting the Japanese, because their stuff doesnt break as much as the Europeans, and they have alot more to spend then the Americans for example the US up until recently pretty much paid the Japanese defense budget.

Yeah, it's a reagent for one type of nuclear fusion I believe.

Forget Government-funded programs.

private enterprises will be the first to establish settlement in the Moon.

case in point, Space Galantica, a space travel company created by billionaire Richard Branson, successfully launched manned space flights to space, 2 flights in 5 days.  http://ecoustics-cnet.com.com/Commercial+space+travel+to+take+flight/2100-1026_3-5384350.html - http://ecoustics-cnet.com.com/Commercial+space+travel+to+tak e+flight/2100-1026_3-5384350.html

• currently, no Government can do that.

well  they are checking if there is water on Mars

so i guess the moon is the secound option.

Mars first

( my opinion is to spend all these Billions on the poverty in the US itself instead wasting it on some useless missions to Mars to check if there WAS water or not)

i voted for usa

Are you sure? did yoi foget the HIIA fiasco, or the mars probe that got lost in outer space?

I would not certainly understimate Jaxa, Hayabuse is a splendid concept, but I'd say that if a first world space agency recently had big problems with defective equipment, that is the Japanese one.

As to the topic question, I too would say it will probably be a multinational effort, with NASA and ESA as main players, but a lot of space for other agencies (Japanese, Rusian, Chinese and even others, like the Indians, for instance, or even the Ukrainians)

Pretty much everything conceivable is cheaper than a Shuttle - a splendid concept, this latter, but probably far ahead of time. Why do you think Russians and French/Europeans aborted their Shuttle-like programs (Buran and Hermes, respectively)?

Probably, next century some economically competitive shuttle-like crafts will fly. For the meantime, expendable launchers seem the most sensible solution.

However, the American EELV's you mention are still quite more expensicve then their international competition, like the European Ariane 5 or the Rusian Proton, just to mention the heavvy class. In fact, Boeing renounced to compete in the civilian market with its Delta 4, and just counts on military orders (however, Boeing is part of the multinational sea-launch corporation, which is competitive with its Russo-Ukrainian rockets). Lokheed-Martin is traying to compete in the free market with its Atlas 5 . . . by having large parts of it built abroad, mainly in ex-Sovietic countries.

Oh, the horrible spell of my previous post!

How can one run the spell checker here? I have been able no more after the forum change because of the pro-boards affair.