AMERICA VS IRAN

It will weaken Iran a lot, but then again such a scenario is not an option for the Americans, as it would mean that

- it has to put more soldiers than it ever put into Irak as Iranian army isnt a joke, nor is its missile capabilities.
- it has also go to cope with other dangerious political / strategical partnerships Iran has, this also includes the political,strategical fiasko of Irak that they made in the international arena.
- Plus I believe that Turkey wont ever let Americans to even enter Iran under any condition, as a year or so back when Iran & Syria wanted to form a alliance with Turkey in the case of an American attack against their countries, Although Turkey being in NATO had to say "No", it didnt they said "when the time comes, if such a situation arises this will be considered".. so its interesting. " Them entering Iran would cause a situation could also lead to a very bloody war in the middle east.

Arpad the risks you consider are;

- Blockade of both economic and military equipment to and from Turkey

   This is not feasable, why;

- well it would mean a disaster for many companies in Europe and the US as parts and things are produced in Turkey for cheaper prices then labeled as produce of their countries.
- The Turkish defence and military budget including many other things will slide to its internal market and to Russia , Korea well asia and East. And perhaps maybe companies will nulify constructor rights, and construct the equipment with modifications under own name.. (This is from plane's to frigates to subs..)
- Turkish politics will slide to making of an economic pact and alliance further with Russia, Turkic Countries, and Asia ( p.s Such an alliance in military level exists between Kazakistan, Turkey, Russia, China, Korea) and this in essence can close the whole of that market from other venturers from the US and EU.

War, Helping Iran;

You are very wrong, the Irak wars have proven a lot minuses of the US and EU, in the views of the Turkish public.

- Thats why anti EU wrose to 98% in time of Terrorist leader of the PKK being harboured in Italy in a mansion by the Italians. People threw out almost everyting EU, and to heal that some EU companies that made certain equipment like Fridges, Ovens, TV's ,Cars put some campaigns to gain the trust of people, even in EU they lobied to their own governments that such a loss would be fatal.
- In Irak, second war it practically proved the incompitence of the US military and planning, and showed their warfare style and civilian tactics of supporting ethnical groups to cause chaos.
- We've seen that NATO under its own law, 4th I think will not come to an aid of a country under war, just because of its politicians didnt see fit. (this practically killed all NATO, as Turkey will not side by NATO unless it suits its goals now, and considering that besides the US, Turkey has the most amount of soldiers in NATO its interesting.. )
- We've also seen how the US will support or turn a blind eye to poeople that harbour terrorists that attack other countries.. They did this in N.Irak well they basically took weapons from some people and armed the rest, which caused one sided cleansing of various pesmerge groups.. Now those weapons that they didnt take back are being used by terrorist groups to kill people in Turkey.
- Formation of 'Kurdistan' as a country is still a reason for "war" with who ever it may concern as the Turkish military put forward even before the war.
- Then there are just insults by both the US public/media, and military to the Turks.

All the above just prove that it wasnt worth the billions and billions of $ lost from just not doing buisness with Irak and enforcing sanctions put by NATO and US.

So Turkey will choose to play another card, whether they like it or not, we basically dont have a choice the EU is pushing us away, the US is playing brutus and backstabbing.. so I think its pretty close for Turkey to play its Middle east and Asia cards

With the amount of experience and soldiers and Equipment Turkey has under wartime ' (note that turkey wont use its real equipment under peacetime, not to let the potential enemy know) which can be up to 24 million people. It would just mean that the middle east is off limits for any attack.

So under the conditions above, whatever the internal politics of Iran will be, be it splitting up into various states governed by themselves and ethnicities, be it something other than that It is at the best interest of the area for those states to be 'Iran', eventually some Iran will reach its own variant of democracy-freedom that suits itself, but all this needs time, and not some war and imposed things by some 'new kid on the block'

As for Europe and Turkey, Turkey is about to 'give up', as its already sounding not very logical. And in 10-15 years time when they do finaly take in Turkey, there is absolutely no reason why a developed and stable Turkey would want to that, EU is just a goal set to improve everyting that Turkey has been lazy to do for a long time, its an economic union, and not a place to surrender your country.

Edited by baracuda

Originally posted by pikeshot1600 There is no need to invade the heartland of Iran.  Teheran is a long way from the oil fields, and one can bet the fields will keep pumping since people there need to provide for their families.

Lol Someone who sees to the heart of the matter.

I do not think the U.S. will invade Iran. We really are not as powerful as many people like to think we are. We probably could invade Iran while we are still fighting in Iraq, but it would be very expensive, and in more ways than one.

Just yesterday Ahmadinejad said that Iran would share its nuclear technology with the rest of the Islamic world, and the U.S. was silent!

Edited by Idanthyrus