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yomud
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Topic: why usa abandoned turkmenistan for russia Posted: 05-Apr-2013 at 06:24 |
turkmenistan is 4th largest gas source and almost is full Desert country which means they should buy water for iran uzbekistan and kazakhstan with just 4.5 million population they seems very weak in this times russia wants turkmenistan as putin's eurasia plans and golden caspian trade ring so they can sell their goods to turkmenistan . turkmenistan always was in fear of losing Independency even with such great armord force equipment they have 700 t72 tanks and have more than 2000 apc and infantry fighters these equipment remain in turkmenistan after afghanistan-soviet war russians demand these tanks backs while they know this is useless to bring them to russia as result turkmenistan can keep the equipment if turkmens aloud russians to help them in building turkmen army so turkmens forced to make treaty with russians that aloud them to control turkmenistan land force while they will provide logistic aid and turkmensitan should provide rent and bills since than russian's control army turkmens polic y is avoiding russia as long as they able they want to keep their natural policy while the russians want them to join csto and Eurasian Economic Community turkmen resist the russians even when it's not reasonable their resistance make large damage to turkmenistan economy
russians do not aloud turkmens to make good tides with west and they manage to keep turkmenistan economy weak until they give up they have keep 2 policy to hold turkmenistan isolated form world 1 cuting good or demand something in exchange for selling some goods this happens when th fall of sovit they cut food and some car tools and parts leave turkmenistan on emergency so turkmens Sign up the army sheet also they dont sell some good or ships to turkmenistan until tukmens do what they want
2 Threaten or use some ally country to force turkmenistan this one several time happens first time was when turkey come buy turkmenistan gas so turkmens can make Pipe line to azerbajian and georgia to turkey than this Pipe line will move to bulgaria and eastern europe this will make a lot money for turkmenistan russian threat to attack and cut some importing goods again Temporarily they cancelled the projects turks did not aware of russian influence and take it as insult later later government change and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan become president and use turkey influence on iran and russia to keep open its trade to turkmenistan erdogan move forword to make this project happens also encourage pakistan and india to buy turkmenistan gas russians act so fast in karsnovas meeting russian threaten turkmens that they will cut goods agian turkmens know turkey's influence and know this time they cant close iran border . it was than Raşit Meredow threat russia that they will take gazprom out of eastern europe and dmitry medvedev awnser "than turkmenistan will suffer the same fate as georgia did " he openly threat russia will take
Balkan Province as it have very good russian population to act as russian Province agian turkmens give up on both Pipe lines
after this china enter the game act as savior of central asia republics provide some goods that russia didn't give and pipe lines become only supporter but they play carefully they dont want to make russians angry the chines silk road project will guaranty china's western province energy and make good market for chines goods turkmenistan policy become something like this Escaping Russia, looking to China turkmenistan several time ask for usa help but bush didint care of it but when obama show supports that was to late and china take usa place as savior they will turn turkmenistan to another north korea usa still can take it's place if they give some air defence and some warships and train turkmen army maybe they can even open a base there
Edited by yomud - 05-Apr-2013 at 06:30
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Centrix Vigilis
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Posted: 05-Apr-2013 at 09:24 |
That basic question is more complex to answer then it appears Yomud.
1. However in general the American public is war weary in that region.
There is much, much, less popular support and political willingness to play world cop in this era; then 25 years ago.
2.The deficit and budget cuts wont allow for prepositioning of significant numbers of troops and equipment, even if this admin was willing. And their not..... as their appeasers, in the sense of grand political strategy; not innovative, aggressive, proponents of democracy other then thru rhetoric. Further, the sustainment and operational security and threats from your neighbors are to much of a risk for commitment and potential catastrophic loss.
3. Vested interests and economics already in play elsewhere, high have a higher priority.
My recommendation is seek firmer alliances with moderate Islamist states such as Turkey and Jordan and even non Muslim states like Israel. The sad truth is.... the Russians have the historical precedence as ideological power players there. And worse case? better them.....then the PRC.
My heart goes out to your brave Yomuds...but for now like it or not they must cut the best deal they can.
My prayers got to you and yours. Remember you come from the stock of fierce and independent warrior hearts.
God will smile on your homeland yet. Allah! ybarek feek (الله يبارك فيك)
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Ollios
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Posted: 05-Apr-2013 at 12:48 |
You are mentioning about this
The first of all, Central Asian countries like garden of Russia. That's why USA can't still help dicretly. That means attack of Russian area which will be him more aggressive and defensive.
Did USA could support Georgia in Russian-Georgian War(2008)? Answer is no. Even Azerbaijan can't give up Russia, but Russia is one of the big friend of Armenia.
Turkmenistan should be ready for after gas age. They have to create new industries also they need to reach other gas market like China, India, Turkey...
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Jinit
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Posted: 05-Apr-2013 at 13:32 |
Originally posted by Ollios
Turkmenistan should be ready for after gas age. They have to create new industries also they need to reach other gas market like China, India, Turkey... |
Actually USA is encouraging India to intiate TAPI pipeline (Turkmenistan Afghanistan Pakistan India or trance Afghanistan pipeline) for quite some time, partially to provide an alternative to IPI (Iran Pakistan India) pipeline and to open a new route to central Asia which isn't under the influence of Iran or Russia. However the pipeline passes through many hostile areas of Afghanistan and as such its hard to put anything into action for a time being.
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yomud
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Posted: 05-Apr-2013 at 15:49 |
Originally posted by Centrix Vigilis
That basic question is more complex to answer then it appears Yomud.
1. However in general the American public is war weary in that region.
There is much, much, less popular support and political willingness to play world cop in this era; then 25 years ago.
2.The deficit and budget cuts wont allow for prepositioning of significant numbers of troops and equipment, even if this admin was willing. And their not..... as their appeasers, in the sense of grand political strategy; not innovative, aggressive, proponents of democracy other then thru rhetoric. Further, the sustainment and operational security and threats from your neighbors are to much of a risk for commitment and potential catastrophic loss.
3. Vested interests and economics already in play elsewhere, high have a higher priority.
My recommendation is seek firmer alliances with moderate Islamist states such as Turkey and Jordan and even non Muslim states like Israel. The sad truth is.... the Russians have the historical precedence as ideological power players there. And worse case? better them.....then the PRC.
My heart goes out to your brave Yomuds...but for now like it or not they must cut the best deal they can.
My prayers got to you and yours. Remember you come from the stock of fierce and independent warrior hearts.
God will smile on your homeland yet. Allah! ybarek feek (الله يبارك فيك)
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ty for ur sympathy however still u didint get how impotent turkmenistan is( "The deficit and budget cuts wont allow for prepositioning of significant numbers of troops and equipment") turkmenistan can pay double for your soldiers and we can buy ur 2en time used equipment which ur going to give them as gift to afghans we have more than 700 unit of 72 tank and more than 2000 AIFV / APC include BTR-60/ BTR-70/ BTR-80 - 829, [15] BMP-1/ BMP-2 - 930, [15] BRM-1 12, and BRDM-2 - 170 and the number of artillery pieces is around 560 we just need aircraft and air diffence and warships surely ur men can use some of these things and democracy do we forcing women to wear hijab ? or we forbid them to drive a car like arabs ? or force them to marry to some one? or marrying child girls to old men ? turkmenistan's head (boss) of parliament (majlis) is a women do we whip people for drink wine or ... ?? do we hanging Christian Jewishor bahai or people who change their Religion ?? do we whip young boys and grils for sleeping togther ?? the only thing people dont have right is They are not involved in politics leadership have red line with russia we have 3 type people 1 upper class : they see avoiding russia is good thing and if we give up And go behind the new Iron Curtain we will betray The next generation just say they doing their best to make us give up they are doing this now we dont know what they will do after we join them 2 middle class : they say we wait 20 years and we just damage our self we should let russia open its militry base here and join them in eau and csto just looked the uzbekistn and kazakestan we chose wrong side !! 3 lower class : they just say do what every they ask we cant live like this ! and about firmer alliances we have already firmer alliances but turkey has its own limits turkey forc iran to keep open its border to turkmensitan and helping us to rebuliding our country they just come in trouble times u know there was time russia asking us some thing in we made list of our need to exchange to do what they ask in the list was buliding number of school and high schools we do what they want but later they ask and what are u going to teach in these schools ?? they change the deal and say we will receive ur student in our school and univ !!! well we can see now turkmen gov almost forbid turkmens to stay at russian school or send people only they know ! while turkmen student sended by gov to turkey from 8 years old student to high school age and univ students and with help of our good turk friends we change turkmen lang form Cyrillic Alphabet to latin one just like turkey system and we are working to remove russian words and suffix form our mother lang this will cut russian Cultural influence form tukmenistan in cenrtal asia u can see turkmens have lowest number worker students and tourism to russia but thousands of turks works in turkmensitan and thousands of turkmens chose turkey as for study and tourism and works turks helping us in making new government stretchers they are helping to train police and some pilots they make Turkmenistan's Telecommunications and they tell us they will help in shipbuilding and fishing boats they make us 2 warships and founding markets for our gas and Cotton and ofc both gov have big plans but still turkey has its own limits all of these happens in just recent years
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yomud
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Posted: 05-Apr-2013 at 15:59 |
putins plan is to combine russia turkmensitan and iran gas so he can become gas emperor russia and turkmensitan gas is for Eastern euorp and iran's is for pakistan and india they will force us to use their Pipe line and they will buy our gas very very cheap and sell it to belaruss and ukrain cheap and for rest of euorp with higher price see this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_natural_gas_proven_reserves turkmenstan - turkey's Pipe line must build or russia will rule euorp
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yomud
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Posted: 05-Apr-2013 at 16:05 |
Originally posted by Jinit
Originally posted by Ollios
Turkmenistan should be ready for after gas age. They have to create new industries also they need to reach other gas market like China, India, Turkey... |
Actually USA is encouraging India to intiate TAPI pipeline (Turkmenistan Afghanistan Pakistan India or trance Afghanistan pipeline) for quite some time, partially to provide an alternative to IPI (Iran Pakistan India) pipeline and to open a new route to central Asia which isn't under the influence of Iran or Russia. However the pipeline passes through many hostile areas of Afghanistan and as such its hard to put anything into action for a time being. |
well the truth is not what Officially announced i remmber the first time when turks came to buy our gas after russian order us to break the deal we demand from turks unreasonable price that turkey will just refuse we officially say we did not reach an agreement on price
Edited by yomud - 05-Apr-2013 at 16:12
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yomud
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Posted: 05-Apr-2013 at 16:10 |
Originally posted by Ollios
You are mentioning about this
The first of all, Central Asian countries like garden of Russia. That's why USA can't still help dicretly. That means attack of Russian area which will be him more aggressive and defensive.
Did USA could support Georgia in Russian-Georgian War(2008)? Answer is no. Even Azerbaijan can't give up Russia, but Russia is one of the big friend of Armenia.
Turkmenistan should be ready for after gas age. They have to create new industries also they need to reach other gas market like China, India, Turkey... |
first its more like to be prison than garden im sure with the help of "one nation 2 government" people we can make such industries
Edited by yomud - 05-Apr-2013 at 16:15
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Mountain Man
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Posted: 05-Apr-2013 at 19:43 |
Are you suggesting that America should go to war on behalf of Turkmenistan? What in the world for?
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yomud
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Posted: 06-Apr-2013 at 05:14 |
Originally posted by Mountain Man
Are you suggesting that America should go to war on behalf of Turkmenistan?
What in the world for?
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tukmenistan can provide oil and gas from black sea port for eroup and from karachi port in pakestain for japon and south korea and other country form east this will be safer and cheaper Pipe line from turkmenistan to georgia u tell me how much money do u spend on keeping Strait of Hormuz opend ?every time iranian say we will close hormuz the oil price increased . if we make pipe line from to georgia and turkey hormuz Values would drop and u can deal with iranian easyer we can provide an alternative to EU for safe energy so they will be no longer under gazprom rule we can make an other pipe line to pakistan's port of karachi and to india we can provide for eastern country like japon and south korea and australia and even eastern porvine of province our influence on china will be usefull for usa but if u dont do this we have only 2 road 1 is leading us to china and other one is putin's dream see this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_natural_gas_proven_reserves
if putin combine russia turkmenistan and iran gas thanrussia's influence over europe will be absolute what do u do in cold winter than ??? turkmensitan has other 15 trilloun gas just under sea of caspian as russian make the sea almost unusable for us as can cant use those gas and we dont have much ship and boats or we cant make more so we cant use sea for fishing so we are need russia for food if u help us to take our share from sea we will have alot of gas almost as much of russians have . russian share norht of sea with kazakistan and azerbajian but south is not clear if iran demand of 50% of sea as they have treaty form time of soviet which give them 50% and other 50% should be for soviet ( ofc if they demand thier 50% they cant has right for shipping in the sea ) as so iran will get 50% and russian already share the northern sea which means we cant get anything ! this is russians plan to force us if we are going to make turkmenistan -turkey pipe line we need ur supports and im sure they cant make a war ! they dont have force near our border and they cant get large number form sea they only base they have is in the tajikestan and if they are going to attack us they must pass uzbekistan . uzbekistan has larget army in central asian have biggest population of 30 million if they want they cant take all central asia they are just like us fleeing russians looking for china recently they are working with usa this must care for some thing
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Ollios
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Posted: 06-Apr-2013 at 06:31 |
Originally posted by yomud
putins plan is to combine russia turkmensitan and iran gas so he can become gasemperor russia and turkmensitan gas is for Eastern euorp and iran's is for pakistan and india they will force us to use their Pipe line and they will buy our gas very very cheap and sell it to belaruss and ukrain cheap and for rest of euorp with higher price see this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_natural_gas_proven_reserves turkmenstan - turkey's Pipe line must build or russia will rule euorp
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I agree. We have already known that EU is unwell about the dependence of Russian gas. This will be good or EU and also Turkmenistan. They can sell their resources with high price.
Originally posted by Jinit
Actually USA is encouraging India to intiate TAPI pipeline (Turkmenistan Afghanistan Pakistan India or trance Afghanistan pipeline) for quite some time, partially to provide an alternative to IPI (Iran Pakistan India) pipeline and to open a new route to central Asia which isn't under the influence of Iran or Russia. However the pipeline passes through many hostile areas of Afghanistan and as such its hard to put anything into action for a time being. |
I think Jinit is right. USA never support any line which involves Iran and Other lines like TAPI is not good choice because of the situation of Afghanistan. Turkmenistan should focus these 3 lines 1-Azerbaijan-Turkey-EU 2-Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan-China 3-Russia
Because of the structure of Iran and Afghanistan, I don't see any possible scenario
Originally posted by yomud
well the truth is not what Officially announced i remmber the first time when turks came to buy our gas after russian order us to break the deal we demand from turks unreasonable price that turkey will just refuse we officially say we did not reach an agreement on price |
Actually, Turkey is buying Turkmen gas from Iran. Iran doesn't have much production capacity. The reason is embargo, so they buy Turkmen gas and sell it to Turkey. Iran, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan sea borders are not certain.
The problem is not just USA help. What about Turkmenistan-Azerbaijan Oil field conflict in Hazar?
Edited by Ollios - 06-Apr-2013 at 06:33
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Bulldog
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Posted: 15-Apr-2013 at 16:06 |
Turkey needs to use her influence over Azerbaijan to push for Azerbaijan to strike a reasonable deal with Turkmenistan.
A safe passage for Turkmenistan gas to the West is in Europe and the US interests to reduce the reliance of Russian gas and oil.
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